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TÜRKİYE'NİN AB ÜYELİĞİ KİŞİ BAŞINA GSYİH'NİN YÜKSEK GELİRLİ EKONOMİYE YAKINSAMASINI SAĞLAYACAK MI?

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 23, 136 - 166, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080

Abstract

Bu çalışma, AB'ye yeni üye olan ülkelerin 2000'li yıllardaki ekonomik performanslarını inceleyerek, Türkiye'nin Avrupa Birliği'ne (AB) tam üye olması durumunda Türkiye ekonomisinde yaşanabilecek olası gelişmeleri incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma, 2000'li yıllarda AB'ye tam üye olarak kabul edilen on üç üye ülkeyi ve AB'ye aday ülke olan Türkiye'yi kapsamaktadır. Yeni üyelerin sekizi (çalışma yapıldığı esnada yedi üye vardı) aynı zamanda Euro (Avro) Bölgesi'nde yer almaktadır. Yeni üyelerin 11'i Orta ve Doğu Avrupa'da yer alırken, Malta ve Kıbrıs Rum Kesimi Akdeniz'de yer alan iki ada ülkesidir. Ülke seti için kişi başına düşen Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla (GSYİH)'nın normallik testi yapıldıktan sonra ülke verileri arasındaki korelasyon incelenmiştir. Üye ülkelerin üyelik öncesi ve üyelik sonrası kişi başına düşen GSYİH değerlerinin büyüme yakınsama denklemi ile büyüme performansı ve farklı birim kök testleri ile de kırılma noktaları zaman serileri ve panel verilerle analiz edilmiştir. 1995-2021 döneminde kişi başına düşen gelir artışında en iyi performansı Litvanya gösterirken, Romanya ikinci, Letonya ise üçüncü en iyi performansa sahip ülke olmuştur. Yakınsama teoremi nedeniyle, yeni üye ülkeler 1995-2021 döneminde kişi başına düşen gelirde AB ve Euro Bölgesi'nden daha yüksek büyüme hızına sahiptir.

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Thanks

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WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?

Year 2023, Volume: 10 Issue: 23, 136 - 166, 31.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080

Abstract

This study aims to investigate possible developments in the Turkish economy, in case Türkiye becomes a full member of the European Union (EU), by examining the economic performances of the new members of the EU in the 2000s. The study covers thirteen-member countries that were accepted as full members of the EU in the 2000s and Türkiye, which is a candidate country to the EU. Eight (there were seven members when the study was done) of the new members are also in the Euro Area (Eurozone). While eleven of the new members are located in Central and Eastern Europe, Malta and Cyprus are two island countries located in the Mediterranean. After testing the normality of GDP per capita for the country set, the correlation between the countries was investigated. The growth performance with growth convergence equation and breakpoints with different unit root tests in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita of the member countries before and after the membership were also analysed by time series and panel data. Lithuania has the best performance in income per capita increase in 1995-2021 period whereas Romania has the second and Latvia has the third best performance. Due to the convergence theorem, new member countries have highest growth rate than the EU and Euro Area in income per capita in 1995-2021 period.

Project Number

Yok

References

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  • Akkoç, U. & Şahin, H. (2019). Income convergence between countries: Estimation of beta convergence by dynamic panel data method. Eurasian Business and Economics Journal, 20, 194-212.
  • Andreano, M.S., Laureti, L. & Postiglione, P. (2013). Economic growth in MENA countries: Is there convergence of per-capita GDPs? Journal of Policy Modeling. 35(4), 669-683. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2013.02.005
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  • Chang, T., Lee, C.-H., Chou, P.-I., & Wang, S.-C. (2012). Purchasing power parity for transition countries: Further evidence from panel SURADF test with a fourier function. Eastern European Economics, 50(4), 42-59.
  • Cheung, Y.-W., & Pascual, A.G. (2004). Testing for output convergence: A re-examination. Oxford Economic Papers, 56(1), 45-63.
  • Cieślik, A. & Wciślik, D.R. (2020). Convergence among the CEE-8 economies and their catch-up towards the EU-15. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 39-48. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.07.006
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  • Glawe, L., & Wagner, H. (2021). Divergence tendencies in the European integration process: A danger for the sustainability of the E(M)U? Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 14(3), 104. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14030104
  • Karatay Gögül, P. & Koralp, L. (2014). Ekonomik yakınsama olgusunun sınanması üzerine yeni bulgular: OECD örneği. Kastamonu Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi. 4(2), 60-73.
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  • Ho, T. W. (2015). Income inequality may not converge after all: Testing panel unit roots in the presence of cross-section cointegration. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 56, 68-79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2014.10.005
  • IBM (2022). IBM Db2 Warehouse on Cloud/Statistics-parametric and nonparametric. Retrieved on 2022, February 9 from https://www.ibm.com/docs/vi/db2woc?topic=procedures-statistics-parametric-nonparametric
  • Im, K.S. & P. Schmidt (2008). More efficient estimation under non-normality when higher moments do not depend on the regressors, using residual augmented least squares. Journal of Econometrics, 144(1), 219-233.
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There are 73 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Regional Studies
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Metin Gürler 0000-0002-9263-0258

Funda Kara 0000-0001-8685-0695

Project Number Yok
Early Pub Date December 29, 2023
Publication Date December 31, 2023
Submission Date August 9, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 10 Issue: 23

Cite

APA Gürler, M., & Kara, F. (2023). WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?. Akademik Hassasiyetler, 10(23), 136-166. https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080
AMA Gürler M, Kara F. WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?. Akademik Hassasiyetler. December 2023;10(23):136-166. doi:10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080
Chicago Gürler, Metin, and Funda Kara. “WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?”. Akademik Hassasiyetler 10, no. 23 (December 2023): 136-66. https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080.
EndNote Gürler M, Kara F (December 1, 2023) WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?. Akademik Hassasiyetler 10 23 136–166.
IEEE M. Gürler and F. Kara, “WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?”, Akademik Hassasiyetler, vol. 10, no. 23, pp. 136–166, 2023, doi: 10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080.
ISNAD Gürler, Metin - Kara, Funda. “WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?”. Akademik Hassasiyetler 10/23 (December 2023), 136-166. https://doi.org/10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080.
JAMA Gürler M, Kara F. WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2023;10:136–166.
MLA Gürler, Metin and Funda Kara. “WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?”. Akademik Hassasiyetler, vol. 10, no. 23, 2023, pp. 136-6, doi:10.58884/akademik-hassasiyetler.1340080.
Vancouver Gürler M, Kara F. WILL THE MEMBERSHIP OF TÜRKİYE TO THE EU SPUR CONVERGENCE OF GDP PER CAPITA TO HIGH-INCOME ECONOMY?. Akademik Hassasiyetler. 2023;10(23):136-6.

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