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Analysis of Shoreline Changes in Kızılırmak Delta Using EPR and LRR Methods for the Period 1984–2022, and Prediction for the Year 2030

Year 2023, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 306 - 339, 30.10.2023

Derya Öztürk Sibel Uzun

https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1310132
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Determining shoreline changes, investigating the reasons for these changes, and making predictions for the feature are of great importance for coastal management. The aim of this study is to analyze shoreline changes in an 8 km-long region of the Kızılırmak Delta during the period 1984–2022 and predict the shoreline for the year 2030. The shorelines were determined using Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI/Landsat-9 OLI-2 satellite images of 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2015 and 2022. Annual shoreline change rates were calculated using the EPR and LRR methods. For the period 1984–2022, EPR revealed an average erosion rate of -7.0 m/year, with a maximum erosion rate of -16.2 m/year. LRR showed an average erosion rate of -7.5 m/year, with a maximum erosion rate of -19.6 m/year. The total area lost due to erosion was 201.40 hectares, and 57% of the 8 km coast according to EPR and 50% according to LRR showed high degree of erosion. The results revealed that the coastal protection structures could not completely prevent the erosion. Without necessary precautions, it is predicted that an additional 51.48 hectares of area may be lost due to erosion by 2030, potentially reaching depths of -270.8 m.

Keywords

Shoreline Change Coastal Erosion Shoreline Prediction EPR LRR

References

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Kızılırmak Deltası Kıyı Çizgisinin EPR ve LRR Yöntemleriyle 1984–2022 Periyodunda Değişim Analizi ve 2030 Yılı Tahmini

Year 2023, Volume: 21 Issue: 2, 306 - 339, 30.10.2023

Derya Öztürk Sibel Uzun

https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1310132
Cited By: 1

Abstract

Kıyı çizgisindeki değişimlerin belirlenmesi, değişimlerin nedenlerinin araştırılması ve gelecek tarihlere yönelik tahminler, kıyı yönetimi açısından büyük bir önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Kızılırmak Deltasında 8 km uzunluğundaki bölgede 1984–2022 periyodunda gerçekleşen kıyı çizgisi değişimlerinin analizi ve 2030 yılı için kıyı çizgisinin konumunun tahmin edilmesidir. Çalışmada 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008, 2015 ve 2022 yıllarına ait Landsat-5 TM/Landsat-8 OLI/Landsat-9 OLI-2 uydu görüntüleri kullanılarak kıyı çizgileri belirlenmiş, EPR ve LRR yöntemleriyle yıllık kıyı çizgisi değişim oranları hesaplanmıştır. 1984–2022 periyodunda EPR yöntemiyle ortalama -7,0 m/yıl ve maksimum -16,2 m/yıl, LRR yöntemiyle ortalama -7,5 m/yıl ve maksimum -19,6 m/yıl erozyon hızı belirlenmiştir. Erozyonla kaybedilen alan 201,40 ha olup, 8 km kıyının EPR yöntemine göre % 57’si, LRR yöntemine göre % 50’si yüksek erozyon derecesi taşımaktadır. Çalışmanın sonuçları kıyı koruma yapılarının erozyonu tam olarak engelleyemediğini göstermiştir. Gerekli önlemlerin alınmaması durumunda 2030 yılına kadar -270,8 m’yi bulabilecek erozyon nedeniyle 51,48 ha alanın kaybolacağı öngörülmektedir.

Keywords

Kıyı çizgisi değişimi Kıyı erozyonu Kıyı çizgisi tahmini EPR LRR

References

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There are 72 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Geospatial Information Systems and Geospatial Data Modelling, Geomatic Engineering (Other), Remote Sensing
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Derya Öztürk 0000-0002-0684-3127

Sibel Uzun 0000-0001-5814-7054

Early Pub Date August 10, 2023
Publication Date October 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 21 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Öztürk, D., & Uzun, S. (2023). Kızılırmak Deltası Kıyı Çizgisinin EPR ve LRR Yöntemleriyle 1984–2022 Periyodunda Değişim Analizi ve 2030 Yılı Tahmini. Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, 21(2), 306-339. https://doi.org/10.33688/aucbd.1310132

Cited By

İzmit Körfezi Doğu Kıyısındaki Doğal ve Antropojenik Kökenli Değişimlerin DSAS Aracı İle Analizi
Turkish Journal of Remote Sensing and GIS
https://doi.org/10.48123/rsgis.1410923
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