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Covid-19 Salgını Çerçevesinde Modern Para Teorisi ve Helikopter Para Yaklaşımının Değerlendirilmesi

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 147 - 181, 29.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.940037

Abstract

Ülkeler Covid-19 pandemisinin yol açtığı ekonomik krizin etkilerini yumuşatmak için çeşitli önlemler almaktadırlar. Bunlardan biri de açıklanan mali teşvik paketleridir. Özellikle gelişmiş ülkelerin uygulamaya koydukları mali teşvik önlemlerinin önemli bir kısmı Modern Para Teorisi’nin bir uygulaması olarak kabul edilen “helikopter para” uygulaması şeklindedir. Helikopter para uygulamasının temel hedefi kriz döneminde azalan toplam talebi canlandırarak ekonominin derin bir resesyona girmesini önlemektir. Bu yüzden helikopter paranın öncelikle hane halkı tüketimini artırıp tasarruf oranlarını düşürmesi beklenmektedir. Bu beklentinin gerçekleşmesi enflasyon oranlarının artması ile sonuçlanabilir. Bu çalışmanın amacı, 2008 küresel ekonomik krizi ile birlikte popüler olan Modern Para Teorisi ve bunun bir uygulaması olan helikopter para tüketim, tasarruf ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini Covid-19 süreci çerçevesinde değerlendirmektir. Gelişmiş ülkelerdeki devasa mali teşvik önlemlerine rağmen tüketim harcamalarının düştüğü, tasarrufların ise arttığı görülmektedir. Bu durum enflasyon oranlarının düşmesine neden olsa da, aşılama düzeyinin yeterli bir seviyeye ulaşması ve kısıtlamaların gevşetilmesi ile birlikte ertelenen talep ve artan tasarrufların enflasyon oranlarını istenmeyen bir noktaya yükselteceği değerlendirilmektedir. Bu yüzden toplam talebi artırmak ve enflasyonda ani artışları önlemek için mali teşviklerin yanında ekonomik güven ortamını sağlayan ve belirsizlikleri ortadan kaldıran önlemlerin alınması gerekmektedir.

References

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  • Kashama, K.M. (2020.) “An assessment of modern monetary theory, Economic Review”, National Bank of Belgium, 2:131-144,
  • Kelton S. (2017), How we think about the deficit is mostly wrong, The New York Times, Opinion, 5 October
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  • Kozlowski, J, L Veldkamp and V Venkateswaran (2020), Scarring body and mind: the long-termbelief-scarring effects of Covid-19, NBER Working Paper 27439.
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Evaluation of Modern Monetary Theory and Helicopter Money Approach in The Framework of The Covid-19 Pandemic

Year 2022, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 147 - 181, 29.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.940037

Abstract

Countries are taking various measures to moderate the effects of the economic crisis caused by the Covid-19 pandemic. One of them is the announced fiscal stimulus packages. An important part of these fiscal stimulus measures put into practice mostly in developed countries is in the form of "helicopter money", which is accepted as an application of the Modern Monetary Theory. The main goal of the helicopter money application is to prevent the economy from entering a deep recession by stimulating the total demand that decreased during the crisis period. Hence, helicopter money is expected to increase household consumption and lower savings rates primarily. The realization of this expectation may result in an increase in inflation rates. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of the Modern Monetary Theory and its application, the helicopter money, on consumption, saving and inflation within the framework of The Covid-19 process. Despite the huge fiscal stimulus measures in developed countries, it is observed that consumption expenditures decreased and savings increased. Although this situation causes the inflation rates to decrease, it is considered that the deferred demand and increased savings will increase the inflation rates to an undesirable point after the vaccination level reaches a sufficient level and the restrictions are relaxed. Therefore, in order to increase aggregate demand and prevent sudden increases in inflation, besides fiscal incentives, it is necessary to take measures that provide an environment of economic confidence and eliminate uncertainties.

References

  • Agrawal, A. (2020). Could Modern Monetary Theory rescue us from the Covid-19 economic crisis?, https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/opinion/could-modern-monetary-theory-rescue-us-from-the-covid-19-economic-crisis-5061071.html, (Erişim: 01.02.2021)
  • Aspachs, O., Dutante, R., Graziano, A., Mestres, J., Reynal-Querol, M., Montalvo, J.G. (2021. Tracking the impact of COVID-19 on economic inequality at high frequency, PLoS ONE 16(3):e0249121. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0249121
  • Baker,S.R., Farrokhnia,R.A., Meyer, S., Pagel, M., Yannelis, C. (2020. Income, liquidity, and the consumption response to the 2020 economic stimulus payments. Becsker Friedman Institute Working Paper, No.2020-55
  • Baqaee, D. Farhi, E. (2020). Supply versus demand: Unemployment and inflation in the Covid-19 recession, https://voxeu.org/article/assessing-keynesian-spillovers-covid-19-recession (Erişim:09.09.2021).
  • Bartholomew, L. Diggle, P. (2020). The lasting impact of the Covid crisis on economicpotential, https://voxeu.org/article/lasting-impact-covid-crisis-economic-potential (Erişim: 28.09.2021)
  • Bartsch, E., Boivin, J., Fischer, S., Hildebrand, P. (2019). Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination, SUERF policy Note, No.105
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2003). Some thoughts on monetary policy in Japan. BIS Review, 25/2003
  • Bernanke, B.S. (2016). What tools does the Fed have left? Part 3: Helicopter Money, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2016/04/11/what-tools-does-the-fed-have-left-part-3-helicopter-money/ (Erişim: 03.03.2021)
  • Bofinger P. (2020), “Coronavirus crisis: now is the hour of Modern Monetary Theory”, https:// www.socialeurope.eu/coronavirus-crisis-now-is-the-hour-of-modern-monetary-theory (Erişim:25.04.2021)
  • Bofinger, P.(2019). Modern monetary theory: the dose makes the poison, https://socialeurope.eu/modern-monetary-theory (Erişim: 25.04.2021)
  • Bonam, D., AI Smădu (2021), The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Why this time maybe different, https://voxeu.org/article/long-run-effects-pandemics-inflation (05.09.2021)
  • Buiter, W. (2020). “The helicopters are coming”, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/helicopter-money-coronavirus-response-by-willem-h-buiter-1-2020-03?barrier=accesspaylog (Erişim: 20.01.2021)
  • Cassady, J. (2016). Raghuram Rajan and the Dangers of Helicopter Money, https://www.newyorker.com/news/john-cassidy/raghuram-rajan-and-the-dangers-of-helicopter-money
  • Cassim, Z., Handjiski, B., Schubert, J., Zouaoui, Y.(2020). The $10 trillion rescue: How governments can deliver impact, https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Industries/Public%20Sector/Our%20Insights/The%2010%20trillion%20dollar%20rescue%20How%20governments%20can%20deliver%20impact/The-10-trillion-dollar-rescue-How-governments-can-deliver-impact-vF.pdf (Erişim: 20.03.2021)
  • Chetty, R., Friedman J.N., Hendren N., Stepner, M. (2020). How did covid-19 and stabilization policies affect spending and employment? a new real-time economic tracker based on private sector data. NBER Working Paper No. 27431
  • Clark, A., d’Ambrosio, C., Lepinteur, A. (2021). The Fall in Income Inequality during COVID-19 in Five European Countries, halshs-03185534
  • Drescher, K., Fessler, P., Linder, P. (2020). Helicopter money in Europe: New evidence on the marginal propensity to consume across European households, Economics Letters 195 (2020) 109416
  • Driessen, G.A., Gravelle, J.G. (2019). Deficit Financing, the Debt, and “Modern Monetary Theory, CRS Report, No. 45976
  • Eichenbaum, M. S., Rebelo, S. and Trabandt, M. (2020). The macroeconomics of epidemics. NBER Working Paper 26882.
  • Ferreira, F. H. G. (2021). Inequality inthe time of Covid-19. Finance & Develpoment, pp. 20-23
  • Friedman, M. (1969). The Optimum Quantity of Money. In M. Friedman, The Optimum Quantity of Money and Other Essays, 1–50, Chicago: Aldine.
  • Fullwiler, S.T, Kelton, S.A, and Wray, L.R., (2012). Modern money theory: a response to critics. Political Economy Research Institute, Working Paper 279.
  • Galbraith, J.K. (2020). “Who’s afraid of MMT?”, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-central-bankers-fear-modern-monetary-theory-by-james-k-galbraith-2020-12?barrier=accesspaylog (Erişim: 20.02.2021)
  • Gali, J. (2019). The effect of a money-financed fiscal stimulus. NBER Working Paper No. 26249
  • Gali, J. (2020). Helicopter money: The time is now. https://voxeu.org/article/helicopter-money-time-now (Erişim: 03.04.2021)
  • Greene, M. (2020). Can “helicopter money” save the global economy?, https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/economics-and-finance/helicopter-money-milton-friedman-coronavirus-covid-economy-recession-central-banks (Erişim: 03.03.2021)
  • Gright, I., Janssen, S. (2017). Helicopter money: Loved, not spent, https://voxeu.org/article/helicopter-money-loved-not-spent (Erişim: 23.08.2021)
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF) (2020). Fiscal Monitor: Policies for the Recovery. Washington, October
  • International Money Fund (2021). Fiscal Monitor Database of Country Fiscal Measures in Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic, https://www.imf.org/en/Topics/imf-and-covid19/Fiscal-Policies-Database-in-Response-to-COVID-19 (Erişim: 04.04.2021)
  • Jourdan, S. (2020). Helicopter money as a response to the COVID-19 recession in the Eurozone,https://www.positivemoney.eu/wpcontent/uploads/2020/03/Helicopter_Money_Covid.pdf
  • Kapoor, S.,Buiter, W. (2020). “To fight the Covid pandemic, policymakers must move fast and break taboos”, https://voxeu.org/article/fight-covid-pandemic-policymakers-must-move-fast-and-break-taboos (Erişim: 19.02.2021)
  • Kashama, K.M. (2020.) “An assessment of modern monetary theory, Economic Review”, National Bank of Belgium, 2:131-144,
  • Kelton S. (2017), How we think about the deficit is mostly wrong, The New York Times, Opinion, 5 October
  • King, M. (2020). The ide ological bankruptcy of modern monetary theory, https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-ideological-bankruptcy-of-modern-monetary-theory (Erişim: 21.02.2021)
  • Kozlowski, J, L Veldkamp and V Venkateswaran (2020), Scarring body and mind: the long-termbelief-scarring effects of Covid-19, NBER Working Paper 27439.
  • Krugman, P. (2019a). “What’s Wrong With Functional Finance? (Wonkish)”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/12/opinion/whats-wrong-with-functional-finance-wonkish.html, (Erişim: 23.03.2021)
  • Krugman, P. (2019b). “Running on MMT (Wonkish)”, https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/opinion/running-on-mmt-wonkish.html (Erişim: 23.03.2021)
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2020). "A Skeptic's Guide to Modern Monetary Theory." AEA Papers and Proceedings, 110:141-44.
  • Masciandaro, D. (2020). COVID-19 Helicopter Money, Monetary Policy and Central Bank Independence: Economics and Politics (April 2020). BAFFI CAREFIN Centre Research Paper No. 2020-137
  • Mitchell, W.,Wray, L.R., Watts, M. (2019). Macroeconomics. Red Globe Press.
  • OECD (2020). Tourism Policy Responsesto the coronavirus (COVID-19), https://read.oecd-ilibrary.org/view/?ref=124_124984-7uf8nm95se&title=Covid-19_Tourism_Policy_Responses&_ga (Erişim: 25.09.2021)
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  • OECD (2021b). Household savings (indicator). doi: 10.1787/cfc6f499-en (Erişim: 10.04.2021)
  • OECD (2021c). Inflation forecast (indicator). doi: 10.1787/598f4aa4-en (Erişim: 10.04.2021)
  • OECD (2021d). OECD Employment Outlook 2021:Navigating the COVID-19 Crisis and Recovery, https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/5a700c4b-en/1/3/1/index.html?itemId (25.09.2021)
  • Palley, T.I (2015) The critics of modern money theory (MMT) are right. Review of Political Economy, 27:1, 45-61, DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2014.957473
  • Reichlin, L., Turner, A., Woodford, M. (2019). Helicopter money as a policy option, https://voxeu.org/article/helicopter-money-policy-option, (Erişim: 21.02.2021)
  • Rogoff, K. (2019). “Modern Monetary Nonsense”, https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/federal-reserve-modern-monetary-theory-dangers-by-kenneth-rogoff-2019-03?barrier=accesspaylog (Erişim: 15.02.2021)
  • Rogoff, K. (2021). Are Inflation Fears Justified?, https://www.project syndicate.org/ commentary/long-term-inflation-risks-central-banks-globalization-by-kenneth-rogoff-2021-03?barrier=accesspaylog (Erişim:01.04.2010)
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There are 60 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Zeki Akbakay 0000-0002-6736-6483

Early Pub Date August 29, 2022
Publication Date August 29, 2022
Submission Date May 20, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2022 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Akbakay, Z. (2022). Covid-19 Salgını Çerçevesinde Modern Para Teorisi ve Helikopter Para Yaklaşımının Değerlendirilmesi. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 147-181. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.940037


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