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Long-run Asymmetric Association between Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 18, 58 - 64, 31.12.2020

Abstract

This study aims to analyze asymmetric association between economic growth rate and growth rate of imported goods and services in Turkey for the periods of 1988-2019 by using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model and two distinct indicators of economic growth rate. According to the estimation results, there exists a nonlinear cointegration relationship between economic growth rate and growth rate of imports. NARDL (2,2) model is estimated to determine the presence of any asymmetric link in short-run/long-run. We identified an asymmetric relationship between the series in the long-run but not in the short-run. Estimation findings of the first model disclose that a rise in growth rate of imports by 1% causes a rise in economic growth rate by 0.606% while a decrease in growth rate of imports by 1% leads to a drop in economic growth rate by 0.565%. On the other hand, according to the estimation results of the second model, a jump in growth rate of imports by 1% causes to an increase in economic growth rate by 0.574% whereas a drop in growth rate of imports by 1% leads to a decrease in economic growth rate by 0.535%. Also model diagnostic tests imply that the model do not contain autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity, model misspecification and non-normality problems.

References

  • Adegboyega, R. R. (2017). The Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from VAR Approach. Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 6, 364-349.
  • Agasisti, T., & Bertoletti, A. (2020). Higher education and economic growth: A longitudinal study of European regions 2000–2017. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 100940.
  • Aluko, O. A., & Adeyeye, P. O. (2020). Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for granger causality in the frequency domain. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 1-15.
  • Asongu, S. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Foreign direct investment, information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Telecommunications Policy, 44(1), 101838.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Chen, J., & Dong, B. (2012). A nonparametric estimation on the effects of import and export trade to economic growth in China. Procedia Engineering, 29, 952-956.
  • Croes, R., Ridderstaat, J., Bąk, M., & Zientara, P. (2020). Tourism specialization, economic growth, human development and transition economies: The case of Poland. Tourism Management, 82, 104181.
  • Fahimi, A., Saint Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., & Akadiri, A. C. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of micro states. Tourism management perspectives, 28, 62-70.
  • Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The quarterly journal of economics, 110(2), 353-377.
  • Gui-Diby, S. L. (2014). Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Africa: Evidence from three decades of panel data analyses. Research in economics, 68(3), 248-256.
  • Herrerias, M. J., & Orts, V. (2011). Imports and growth in China. Economic modelling, 28(6), 2811-2819.
  • Koyuncu, C., Unver, M. (2019), An Empirical Analysis of a Long-Term Relationship between Energy Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Tekirdağ, Turkey. XI. International Balkan and Near Eastern Social Sciences Congress Series
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437.
  • Manwa, F., Wijeweera, A., & Kortt, M. A. (2019). Trade and growth in SACU countries: A panel data analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 63, 107-118.
  • Omri, A., Daly, S., Rault, C., & Chaibi, A. (2015). Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: What causes what in MENA countries. Energy Economics, 48, 242-252.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Ranis, G., Stewart, F., & Ramirez, A. (2000). Economic growth and human development. World development, 28(2), 197-219.
  • Shahbaz, M. (2012). Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2325-2339.
  • Su, Y., & Liu, Z. (2016). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 37, 97-109.
  • Tsaurai, K., & Ndou, A. (2019). Infrastructure, human capital development and economic growth in transitional countries. Comparative Economic Research, 22(1), 33-52.
Year 2020, Volume: 9 Issue: 18, 58 - 64, 31.12.2020

Abstract

References

  • Adegboyega, R. R. (2017). The Impact of Export and Import on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from VAR Approach. Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 6, 364-349.
  • Agasisti, T., & Bertoletti, A. (2020). Higher education and economic growth: A longitudinal study of European regions 2000–2017. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, 100940.
  • Aluko, O. A., & Adeyeye, P. O. (2020). Imports and economic growth in Africa: Testing for granger causality in the frequency domain. The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, 1-15.
  • Asongu, S. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2020). Foreign direct investment, information technology and economic growth dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa. Telecommunications Policy, 44(1), 101838.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Chen, J., & Dong, B. (2012). A nonparametric estimation on the effects of import and export trade to economic growth in China. Procedia Engineering, 29, 952-956.
  • Croes, R., Ridderstaat, J., Bąk, M., & Zientara, P. (2020). Tourism specialization, economic growth, human development and transition economies: The case of Poland. Tourism Management, 82, 104181.
  • Fahimi, A., Saint Akadiri, S., Seraj, M., & Akadiri, A. C. (2018). Testing the role of tourism and human capital development in economic growth. A panel causality study of micro states. Tourism management perspectives, 28, 62-70.
  • Grossman, G. M., & Krueger, A. B. (1995). Economic growth and the environment. The quarterly journal of economics, 110(2), 353-377.
  • Gui-Diby, S. L. (2014). Impact of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Africa: Evidence from three decades of panel data analyses. Research in economics, 68(3), 248-256.
  • Herrerias, M. J., & Orts, V. (2011). Imports and growth in China. Economic modelling, 28(6), 2811-2819.
  • Koyuncu, C., Unver, M. (2019), An Empirical Analysis of a Long-Term Relationship between Energy Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Tekirdağ, Turkey. XI. International Balkan and Near Eastern Social Sciences Congress Series
  • Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., & Weil, D. N. (1992). A contribution to the empirics of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 107(2), 407-437.
  • Manwa, F., Wijeweera, A., & Kortt, M. A. (2019). Trade and growth in SACU countries: A panel data analysis. Economic Analysis and Policy, 63, 107-118.
  • Omri, A., Daly, S., Rault, C., & Chaibi, A. (2015). Financial development, environmental quality, trade and economic growth: What causes what in MENA countries. Energy Economics, 48, 242-252.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Ranis, G., Stewart, F., & Ramirez, A. (2000). Economic growth and human development. World development, 28(2), 197-219.
  • Shahbaz, M. (2012). Does trade openness affect long run growth? Cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan. Economic Modelling, 29(6), 2325-2339.
  • Su, Y., & Liu, Z. (2016). The impact of foreign direct investment and human capital on economic growth: Evidence from Chinese cities. China Economic Review, 37, 97-109.
  • Tsaurai, K., & Ndou, A. (2019). Infrastructure, human capital development and economic growth in transitional countries. Comparative Economic Research, 22(1), 33-52.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Jülide Yalçınkaya Koyuncu

Mustafa Ünver 0000-0002-0491-3080

Publication Date December 31, 2020
Acceptance Date December 21, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 9 Issue: 18

Cite

APA Yalçınkaya Koyuncu, J., & Ünver, M. (2020). Long-run Asymmetric Association between Imports and Economic Growth in Turkey. Balkan Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(18), 58-64.