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Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case

Year 2014, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 335 - 344, 01.08.2014

Abstract

In this study which examines the hysteresis effect between January 2005 and July 2013 in Turkey and whether the unemployment series rates can be used in studying hysteresis effect or not, it has been concluded that the unemployment series and labor force participation rate series are stable according to the results of linear unit root test and the unemployment series are stable only at one regime according to the result of nonlinear unit root test. In the light of these results, it has been suggested that the hysteresis effect at unemployment in Turkey is valid only in one regime and the unemployment rates variable can be used to reflect hysteresis effect at unemployment

References

  • Andersen, T.M. (2010) “Unemployment Persistence” CESifo Forum, 11(1):23-28.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2013) “Türkiye’de İşgücü Piyasasına Etki Eden Şokların Kalıcılığının Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 8(15): 22-41.
  • Alp, E.A. (2008) “Türkiye’de Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin TAR Modeli ile Analizi ve Birim Kök Sınaması” 1. Mühendislik ve Teknoloji Sempozyumu, Ankara.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1986) “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem” Fischer, S. (ed.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H.(1987) “Hysteresis in Unemployment” European Economic Review, 31:288-295.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, E.İ. (2008) “Yapısal Kırılma Testleri ile Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisinin Analizi: 1923- 2006 Dönemi” KMU Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(14): 109-134.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, E.İ. (2008) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisinin Yapısal Kırılma ve Güçlü Hafıza Modellemesi ile Sektörel Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 3(6):67-87.
  • Barro, R. (1988) “The Persistence of Unemployment” The American Economic Review, 78(2): 32-37.
  • Bayat, T., Kayhan, S. ve Koçyiğit, A. (2013) “Türkiye’de İşsizliğin Asimetrik Davranışının Rejim Değişim Modeliyle İncelenmesi” Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(2): 79-90.
  • Bildirici, M., Ersin, Ö. Ö., Türkmen, C., ve Yalçınkaya, Y. (2012) “The Persistence Effect of Unemployment in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1980-2010 Period” Journal of Business Economics & Finance, 1(3): 22-32.
  • Burda, M. (1988) “Is There a Capital Shortage in Europe? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124: 38-57.
  • Camero, M. ve Tamarit, C. (2004) “Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate Of Unemployment: New Evidence For OECD Countries” Economics Letters, 84: 413–417.
  • Camero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L. ve Tamarit, C. (2008) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence Using Stationary Panel Tests with Breaks” Review of Development Economics, 12(3):620-635.
  • Caner, M. ve Hansen, B.E. (2001) “Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root” Econometrica, 69(6):1555-1596.
  • Chang, T., Lee, K-C., Nieh, C-C. ve Wei, C-C. (2005) “An Empirical Note on Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for Ten European Countries: Panel SURADF Approach” Applied Economic Letters, 12: 881- 886.
  • Chang, T. ve Lee, C-H. (2011) “Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test” Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4: 5-14.
  • Cross, R. (1987) “Hysteresis and Instability in the Natural Rate of Unemployment” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 89(1): 71–89.
  • Cuestas, J.C., Gil-Alana, L.A. ve Staehr, K. (2011) “A Further Investigation of Unemployment Persistence in European Transition Economies” Journal of Comparative Economics, 39: 514-532.
  • Fosten, J. ve Ghoshray, A. (2011) “Dynamic Persistence in the Unemployment Rate of OECD Countries” Economic Modelling, 28: 948-954.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” The American Economic Review, 58(1): 1-17.
  • Gil-Alana, A.L. (2002) “Modelling the Persistence of Unemployment in Canada” International Review of Applied Economics, 16(4): 465-477.
  • Gözgör, G. (2012) “Hysteresis in Regional Unemployment Rates in Turkey” International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(9): 175-181.
  • Gustavsson, M. ve Österholm, P. (2006) “The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates” Economics Letters, 92: 428-433.
  • Gustavsson, M. ve Österholm, P. (2007) “Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis” The Economic Record, 83(261): 159-173.
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M.S. (2011) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye için Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi” Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2): 205-215.
  • Hargraves, H.S.P (1980) “Choosing the Wrong Natural Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Deceleration Employment and Growth” Economic Journal, 90:611-620.
  • Jaeger A. ve Parkinson, M. (1990) “Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment an Unobserved Components Approach” Empirical Economics, 15:185-198.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T. ve Tüfekçi, A. (2011) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisi ve STAR Modelleri Uygulaması” Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 31(2): 45-60.
  • Küçükkale, Y. (2001) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İsteri Üzerine Klasik Bir İnceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tekniği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950-1995”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Adana.
  • Layard, R., Nickell, S. ve Jackman, R. (1991) Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M. C. (2003) “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4):1082-1089.
  • Lee, C-F. (2010) “Testing for Unemployment Hysteresis in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels: International Evidence” Economic Modelling, 27:1097-1102.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. J. (1988) “Cooperation, Harassment, and Involuntary Unemployment: An Insider-Outsider Approach” The American Economic Review, 78(1): 167-188.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. (2001) “Insiders versus Outsiders” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1):165-188.
  • Mikhail, O., Eberwein, C. J. ve Handa, J. (2006) “Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment: Evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA” Applied Economics, 38: 1809-1819.
  • Madsen, J., Mishra V. ve Smyth, R. (2008) “Are Labour Force Participation Rates Non-Stationary? Evidence from 130 Years for G7 Countries” Australian Economic Papers, 47: 166-189.
  • Murphy, K. M. ve Topel, R. (1997) “Unemployment and Nonemployment” The American Economic Review, 87(2): 295-300.
  • Neudorfer, P., Pichelmann, K. ve Wagner, M. (1990) “Hysteresis, Nairu and Long Term Unemployment in Austria” Empirical Economics, 15: 217-229.
  • Papell, D. H., Murray, C. J. ve Ghiblawi, H. (2000) “The Structure of Unemployment” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2):309-315.
  • Perron, P. (1989) “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis” Econometrica, 57(6): 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1990) “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean” Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 8(2): 153-162.
  • Phelps, E. (1967) “Philips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time” Economica, 34(135): 254-281.
  • Phelps, E. (1968) “Money, Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium” Journal of Political Economy, 76(4): 678-711.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory, London, Macmillan.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1994) Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
  • Pissarides, C. (1992) “Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 1371-1391.
  • Rİed, K. (1996) “Unemployment Hysteresis- Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries” Empirical Economics, 21: 589-600.
  • Romero-Ávila, D. ve Usabiaga, C. (2008) “On the Persistence of Spanish Unemployment Rates” Empirical Economics, 35: 77-99.
  • Sneessens, H. (1983) “A Macroeconomic Rationing Model of the Belgian Economy” European Economic Review, 20: 193-215.
  • Sneessens, H.R. ve Dreze, J. (1986) “A Discussion of Belgian Unemployment Combining Traditional Concepts and Disequilibrium Econometrics” Economica, 53: 89-119.
  • Yılancı, V. (2008) “Are Unemployment Rates Nonstationary or Nonlinear? Evidence from 19 OECD Countries” Economics Bulletin, 3(47): 1-5.
  • Yılancı, V. (2009) “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması” Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2): 324-335.

İşsizlikte Histeri Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2014, Volume: 14 Issue: 3, 335 - 344, 01.08.2014

Abstract

Türkiye’de (2005:01-2013:07) döneminde işsizlikte histeri etkisi ile işsizlikte histeri etkisinin araştırılmasında işsizlik oranları serisinin kullanılıp kullanılamayacağının incelendiği bu çalışmada, doğrusal birim kök testi sonuçlarına göre işsizlik ve işgücüne katılma oranı serilerinin durağan olduğu, doğrusal olmayan birim kök testi sonucuna göre sadece işsizlik oranları serisinin bir rejimde durağan olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu sonuçlar ışığında, Türkiye’de işsizlikte histeri etkisinin sadece bir rejimde geçerli olduğu ve işsizlikte histeri etkisini yansıtması anlamında işsizlik oranları değişkeninin kullanılabileceği ortaya konulmuş olmaktadır

References

  • Andersen, T.M. (2010) “Unemployment Persistence” CESifo Forum, 11(1):23-28.
  • Arısoy, İ. (2013) “Türkiye’de İşgücü Piyasasına Etki Eden Şokların Kalıcılığının Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 8(15): 22-41.
  • Alp, E.A. (2008) “Türkiye’de Sanayi Üretim Endeksinin TAR Modeli ile Analizi ve Birim Kök Sınaması” 1. Mühendislik ve Teknoloji Sempozyumu, Ankara.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H. (1986) “Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem” Fischer, S. (ed.) NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge, MIT Press.
  • Blanchard, O.J. ve Summers, L.H.(1987) “Hysteresis in Unemployment” European Economic Review, 31:288-295.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, E.İ. (2008) “Yapısal Kırılma Testleri ile Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisinin Analizi: 1923- 2006 Dönemi” KMU Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(14): 109-134.
  • Barışık, S. ve Çevik, E.İ. (2008) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisinin Yapısal Kırılma ve Güçlü Hafıza Modellemesi ile Sektörel Analizi” TİSK Akademi, 3(6):67-87.
  • Barro, R. (1988) “The Persistence of Unemployment” The American Economic Review, 78(2): 32-37.
  • Bayat, T., Kayhan, S. ve Koçyiğit, A. (2013) “Türkiye’de İşsizliğin Asimetrik Davranışının Rejim Değişim Modeliyle İncelenmesi” Business and Economics Research Journal, 4(2): 79-90.
  • Bildirici, M., Ersin, Ö. Ö., Türkmen, C., ve Yalçınkaya, Y. (2012) “The Persistence Effect of Unemployment in Turkey: An Analysis of the 1980-2010 Period” Journal of Business Economics & Finance, 1(3): 22-32.
  • Burda, M. (1988) “Is There a Capital Shortage in Europe? Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 124: 38-57.
  • Camero, M. ve Tamarit, C. (2004) “Hysteresis vs. Natural Rate Of Unemployment: New Evidence For OECD Countries” Economics Letters, 84: 413–417.
  • Camero, M., Carrion-i-Silvestre, J. L. ve Tamarit, C. (2008) “Unemployment Hysteresis in Transition Countries: Evidence Using Stationary Panel Tests with Breaks” Review of Development Economics, 12(3):620-635.
  • Caner, M. ve Hansen, B.E. (2001) “Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root” Econometrica, 69(6):1555-1596.
  • Chang, T., Lee, K-C., Nieh, C-C. ve Wei, C-C. (2005) “An Empirical Note on Testing Hysteresis in Unemployment for Ten European Countries: Panel SURADF Approach” Applied Economic Letters, 12: 881- 886.
  • Chang, T. ve Lee, C-H. (2011) “Hysteresis in Unemployment for G-7 Countries: Threshold Unit Root Test” Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 4: 5-14.
  • Cross, R. (1987) “Hysteresis and Instability in the Natural Rate of Unemployment” Scandinavian Journal of Economics, 89(1): 71–89.
  • Cuestas, J.C., Gil-Alana, L.A. ve Staehr, K. (2011) “A Further Investigation of Unemployment Persistence in European Transition Economies” Journal of Comparative Economics, 39: 514-532.
  • Fosten, J. ve Ghoshray, A. (2011) “Dynamic Persistence in the Unemployment Rate of OECD Countries” Economic Modelling, 28: 948-954.
  • Friedman, M. (1968) “The Role of Monetary Policy” The American Economic Review, 58(1): 1-17.
  • Gil-Alana, A.L. (2002) “Modelling the Persistence of Unemployment in Canada” International Review of Applied Economics, 16(4): 465-477.
  • Gözgör, G. (2012) “Hysteresis in Regional Unemployment Rates in Turkey” International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(9): 175-181.
  • Gustavsson, M. ve Österholm, P. (2006) “The Informational Value of Unemployment Statistics: A Note on the Time Series Properties of Participation Rates” Economics Letters, 92: 428-433.
  • Gustavsson, M. ve Österholm, P. (2007) “Does Unemployment Hysteresis Equal Employment Hysteresis” The Economic Record, 83(261): 159-173.
  • Güloğlu, B. ve İspir, M.S. (2011) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranı mı? İşsizlik Histerisi mi? Türkiye için Sektörel Panel Birim Kök Sınaması Analizi” Ege Akademik Bakış, 11(2): 205-215.
  • Hargraves, H.S.P (1980) “Choosing the Wrong Natural Rate: Accelerating Inflation or Deceleration Employment and Growth” Economic Journal, 90:611-620.
  • Jaeger A. ve Parkinson, M. (1990) “Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment an Unobserved Components Approach” Empirical Economics, 15:185-198.
  • Koçyiğit, A., Bayat, T. ve Tüfekçi, A. (2011) “Türkiye’de İşsizlik Histerisi ve STAR Modelleri Uygulaması” Marmara Üniversitesi İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 31(2): 45-60.
  • Küçükkale, Y. (2001) “Doğal İşsizlik Oranındaki Keynesyen İsteri Üzerine Klasik Bir İnceleme: Kalman Filtre Tahmin Tekniği ile Türkiye Örneği 1950-1995”, V. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, Adana.
  • Layard, R., Nickell, S. ve Jackman, R. (1991) Unemployment, Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market, Oxford, Oxford University Press.
  • Lee, J. ve Strazicich, M. C. (2003) “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4):1082-1089.
  • Lee, C-F. (2010) “Testing for Unemployment Hysteresis in Nonlinear Heterogeneous Panels: International Evidence” Economic Modelling, 27:1097-1102.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. J. (1988) “Cooperation, Harassment, and Involuntary Unemployment: An Insider-Outsider Approach” The American Economic Review, 78(1): 167-188.
  • Lindbeck, A. ve Snower, D. (2001) “Insiders versus Outsiders” Journal of Economic Perspectives, 15(1):165-188.
  • Mikhail, O., Eberwein, C. J. ve Handa, J. (2006) “Estimating Persistence in Canadian Unemployment: Evidence from a Bayesian ARFIMA” Applied Economics, 38: 1809-1819.
  • Madsen, J., Mishra V. ve Smyth, R. (2008) “Are Labour Force Participation Rates Non-Stationary? Evidence from 130 Years for G7 Countries” Australian Economic Papers, 47: 166-189.
  • Murphy, K. M. ve Topel, R. (1997) “Unemployment and Nonemployment” The American Economic Review, 87(2): 295-300.
  • Neudorfer, P., Pichelmann, K. ve Wagner, M. (1990) “Hysteresis, Nairu and Long Term Unemployment in Austria” Empirical Economics, 15: 217-229.
  • Papell, D. H., Murray, C. J. ve Ghiblawi, H. (2000) “The Structure of Unemployment” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 82(2):309-315.
  • Perron, P. (1989) “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis” Econometrica, 57(6): 1361-1401.
  • Perron, P. (1990) “Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean” Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 8(2): 153-162.
  • Phelps, E. (1967) “Philips Curves, Expectations of Inflation and Optimal Unemployment Over Time” Economica, 34(135): 254-281.
  • Phelps, E. (1968) “Money, Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium” Journal of Political Economy, 76(4): 678-711.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1972) Inflation Policy and Unemployment Theory, London, Macmillan.
  • Phelps, E.S. (1994) Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets, Cambridge, Harvard University Press.
  • Pissarides, C. (1992) “Loss of Skill During Unemployment and the Persistence of Employment Shocks” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 107: 1371-1391.
  • Rİed, K. (1996) “Unemployment Hysteresis- Macro Evidence from 16 OECD Countries” Empirical Economics, 21: 589-600.
  • Romero-Ávila, D. ve Usabiaga, C. (2008) “On the Persistence of Spanish Unemployment Rates” Empirical Economics, 35: 77-99.
  • Sneessens, H. (1983) “A Macroeconomic Rationing Model of the Belgian Economy” European Economic Review, 20: 193-215.
  • Sneessens, H.R. ve Dreze, J. (1986) “A Discussion of Belgian Unemployment Combining Traditional Concepts and Disequilibrium Econometrics” Economica, 53: 89-119.
  • Yılancı, V. (2008) “Are Unemployment Rates Nonstationary or Nonlinear? Evidence from 19 OECD Countries” Economics Bulletin, 3(47): 1-5.
  • Yılancı, V. (2009) “Yapısal Kırılmalar Altında Türkiye için İşsizlik Histerisinin Sınanması” Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 10(2): 324-335.
There are 52 citations in total.

Details

Other ID JA27CA58AZ
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Taha Bahadır Saraç

Publication Date August 1, 2014
Published in Issue Year 2014 Volume: 14 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Saraç, T. B. (2014). Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case. Ege Academic Review, 14(3), 335-344.
AMA Saraç TB. Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case. ear. August 2014;14(3):335-344.
Chicago Saraç, Taha Bahadır. “Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case”. Ege Academic Review 14, no. 3 (August 2014): 335-44.
EndNote Saraç TB (August 1, 2014) Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case. Ege Academic Review 14 3 335–344.
IEEE T. B. Saraç, “Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case”, ear, vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 335–344, 2014.
ISNAD Saraç, Taha Bahadır. “Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case”. Ege Academic Review 14/3 (August 2014), 335-344.
JAMA Saraç TB. Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case. ear. 2014;14:335–344.
MLA Saraç, Taha Bahadır. “Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case”. Ege Academic Review, vol. 14, no. 3, 2014, pp. 335-44.
Vancouver Saraç TB. Hysteresis Effect in Unemployment: Turkey Case. ear. 2014;14(3):335-44.