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KÜÇÜK DIŞA AÇIK EKONOMİLERDE MAKRO FİNANSAL ŞOKLAR VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ ETKİNLİĞİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 4, 459 - 472, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.541419

Abstract

Dışa bağlılıkları giderek
artan yükselen ekonomilerin, dış kaynaklı şokların etkilerine daha açık hale
geldikleri görülmektedir. Bu tür şoklar genellikle finansal varlık ve emtia
fiyatlarındaki artışlardan ileri gelir ve hassas ekonomik dengeleri olan küçük
dışa açık ekonomileri derinden sarsabilirler. Yerel finans sisteminde
çalkantılar, çıktı düzeyinde düşüşler, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranlarının
artması gibi etkiler gözlenebilir. Merkez bankaları şoklara karşı genellikle
faiz oranları ile müdahale etmektedir. Dolayısıyla dış kaynaklı makro ekonomik
ve finansal şoklara karşı merkez bankası müdahalelerinin etkinliği giderek daha
fazla tartışılmaya başlanmıştır. Bu çalışmada basit bir Yeni Keynesyen model
üzerinden küçük dışa açık bir ekonomi olan Türkiye’de şoklara karşı para
politikalarının etkinliği sorgulanmaktadır. Clarida vd. (1999) modeli finansal
istikrarı içerecek şekilde geliştirilmiş ve temel varsayımları bir SVAR modeli
üzerinden sınanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular makro ekonomik ve finansal şokların
güçlü karşılıklı etkileşimleri olduğunu göstermektedir. Finansal sistemin
istikrarının en az fiyat istikrarı kadar önemli olduğu, merkez bankasının faiz
oranları yoluyla çıktı düzeyi, enflasyon ve kredi açığını yönlendirebileceği
belirlenmiştir. Ancak faiz oranlarının çıktı üzerindeki etkilerinin diğer
değişkenlere oranla daha kısa sürdüğü saptanmıştır.

References

  • Amarasekara, C. (2009). “The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka”, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, 38, 1-44.
  • Ball, L. M. (2006). “Has Globalization Changed Inflation?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 12687.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). “Globalization and Monetary Policy”, Speech at the Fourth Economic Summit, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, March 2.
  • Berument, H. ve Dinçer, N. N. (2008). “Measuring The Effects of Monetary Policy for Turkey”, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29(1), 83-110.
  • Berument, H. (2007). “Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29, 411-430.
  • Bhuiyan, R. (2012). “The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach”, International Economic Journal, 26(2), 301-316.
  • Calvo, G. A., (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.
  • Canova, F. ve de Nicolo, G. (2002). “Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(6), 1131-1159.
  • Clarida, R. H., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M. L. (1998). “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, European Economic Review, 42(6), 1033-1067.
  • Clarida, R. H., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M. L. (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, 1661–1707.
  • Ehrmann, M. ve Marcel F. (2009). “Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 739 – 759.
  • Ehrmann, M., Marcel F., ve Roberto R. (2011). “Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets, and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, 948-974.
  • Hausman, J. ve Wongswan, J. (2011). “Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 547-571.
  • İvrendi, M. ve Yıldırım, Z. (2013). “Monetary Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Fast Growing Emerging Economies”, Economics E-Journal, Discussion Paper, No. 2013-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, December.
  • Jiranyakul, K. (2016). “Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shock on Output and Prices in Thailand”, MRPA Papers, No. 75708, December.
  • Kandil, M. (2014). “On the Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in Developing Countries”, Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(2), 104-118.
  • Kılınç, M. ve Tunç, C. (2014). “Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach”, TCMB Working Papers, No. 14/23, July.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2009). “Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41, 187-196.
  • Mountford, A. (2005). “Leaning to the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(5), 597-621.
  • Önder, Y. K., Villademir-Villegas, M. (2018). “The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy”, International Journal of Central Banking, 14(1), 159-199.
  • Rogoff, K. (2003). “Globalization and Global Disinflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 4th Quarter, 45-78.Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1992). “Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy”, European Economic Review, 36, 975-1000.
  • Tiryaki, A. (2005). “The Effects of External Monetary Policy Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Variables”, Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 203-227.
  • Uhlig, H. (2005). “What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an agnostic Identification Procedure,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2), 381-419.
  • Woodford, M. (2010). “Globalization and Monetary Control”, In International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Ed. Jordi Gali and Mark J. Gertler, University of Chicago Press, 13-77.

Macro Financial Shocks and Efficiency of Monetary Policies in Small Open Economies: The Case of Turkey

Year 2019, Volume: 4 Issue: 4, 459 - 472, 31.12.2019
https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.541419

Abstract

It is seen that the
emerging economies that the increasing their external dependency become more
open to the effects of external shocks. Such shocks are often caused by
increases in the financial assets and commodity prices and deeply affect the
small open economies with sensitive economic balances. Fluctuations in the
local financial system, declines in output levels, increases in inflation and
unemployment rates may be observed. Central banks often interfere with interest
rates against shocks. Therefore, the effectiveness of central bank
interventions against external macroeconomic and financial shocks has been
increasingly discussed. In this study, the effectiveness of monetary policy
against to external shocks in Turkey which is a small open economy will be
questioned based on a simple New Keynesian model. Clarida et al. (1999) model
was developed to include financial stability and its basic assumptions were
tested on a SVAR model. The findings show that macroeconomic and financial
shocks have strong interactions. It is determined that the stability of the
financial system is important at least as price stability, and that the central
bank can direct output, inflation and credit deficit through interest rates.
However, the effects of interest rates on output were found to be shorter than
other variables.

References

  • Amarasekara, C. (2009). “The Impact of Monetary Policy on Economic Growth and Inflation in Sri Lanka”, Central Bank of Sri Lanka Staff Studies, 38, 1-44.
  • Ball, L. M. (2006). “Has Globalization Changed Inflation?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 12687.
  • Bernanke, B. S. (2007). “Globalization and Monetary Policy”, Speech at the Fourth Economic Summit, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research, Stanford, March 2.
  • Berument, H. ve Dinçer, N. N. (2008). “Measuring The Effects of Monetary Policy for Turkey”, Journal of Economic Cooperation, 29(1), 83-110.
  • Berument, H. (2007). “Measuring Monetary Policy for a Small Open Economy: Turkey”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 29, 411-430.
  • Bhuiyan, R. (2012). “The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks in Bangladesh: A Bayesian Structural VAR Approach”, International Economic Journal, 26(2), 301-316.
  • Calvo, G. A., (1983), “Staggered Prices in a Utility-maximizing Framework”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 12(3), 383-398.
  • Canova, F. ve de Nicolo, G. (2002). “Monetary Disturbances Matter for Business Fluctuations in the G-7”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49(6), 1131-1159.
  • Clarida, R. H., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M. L. (1998). “Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence”, European Economic Review, 42(6), 1033-1067.
  • Clarida, R. H., Gali, J. ve Gertler, M. L. (1999), “The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective”, Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 37, 1661–1707.
  • Ehrmann, M. ve Marcel F. (2009). “Global Financial Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 739 – 759.
  • Ehrmann, M., Marcel F., ve Roberto R. (2011). “Stocks, Bonds, Money Markets, and Exchange Rates: Measuring International Financial Transmission”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 26, 948-974.
  • Hausman, J. ve Wongswan, J. (2011). “Global Asset Prices and FOMC Announcements”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 30(3), 547-571.
  • İvrendi, M. ve Yıldırım, Z. (2013). “Monetary Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Variables: Evidence from Fast Growing Emerging Economies”, Economics E-Journal, Discussion Paper, No. 2013-61, Kiel Institute for the World Economy, December.
  • Jiranyakul, K. (2016). “Identifying the Effects of Monetary Policy Shock on Output and Prices in Thailand”, MRPA Papers, No. 75708, December.
  • Kandil, M. (2014). “On the Effect of Monetary Policy Shocks in Developing Countries”, Borsa Istanbul Review, 14(2), 104-118.
  • Kılınç, M. ve Tunç, C. (2014). “Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Turkey: A Structural VAR Approach”, TCMB Working Papers, No. 14/23, July.
  • Mishkin, F. S. (2009). “Globalization, Macroeconomic Performance, and Monetary Policy”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 41, 187-196.
  • Mountford, A. (2005). “Leaning to the Wind: A Structural VAR Investigation of UK Monetary Policy”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 67(5), 597-621.
  • Önder, Y. K., Villademir-Villegas, M. (2018). “The Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market Economy”, International Journal of Central Banking, 14(1), 159-199.
  • Rogoff, K. (2003). “Globalization and Global Disinflation”, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Review, 4th Quarter, 45-78.Sims, C. A. (1980). “Macroeconomics and Reality”, Econometrica, 48, 1-48.
  • Sims, C. A. (1992). “Interpreting the Macroeconomic Time Series Facts: The Effects of Monetary Policy”, European Economic Review, 36, 975-1000.
  • Tiryaki, A. (2005). “The Effects of External Monetary Policy Shocks on Turkish Macroeconomic Variables”, Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 5(9), 203-227.
  • Uhlig, H. (2005). “What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an agnostic Identification Procedure,” Journal of Monetary Economics, 52(2), 381-419.
  • Woodford, M. (2010). “Globalization and Monetary Control”, In International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, Ed. Jordi Gali and Mark J. Gertler, University of Chicago Press, 13-77.
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Araştırma Makaleleri
Authors

K. Batu Tunay

Necla Tunay

Publication Date December 31, 2019
Submission Date March 18, 2019
Acceptance Date September 30, 2019
Published in Issue Year 2019 Volume: 4 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Tunay, K. B., & Tunay, N. (2019). KÜÇÜK DIŞA AÇIK EKONOMİLERDE MAKRO FİNANSAL ŞOKLAR VE PARA POLİTİKALARININ ETKİNLİĞİ: TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Finans Ekonomi Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 4(4), 459-472. https://doi.org/10.29106/fesa.541419