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MAINTAINABILITY OF THE RUSSIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT: HEPSAĞ, FADF, FKSS UNIT ROOT TESTS

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 4, 699 - 708, 31.12.2021

Abstract

The foreign trade structure of Russia consists of two product bases that have an important place in the world economy, such as crude oil and gas. Russia has not encountered current account deficits during the study period, which is one of the main problems that transition economies are experiencing during the transition to the market-led system. The main purpose of the study is to examine the sustainability of Russia's current account in the period 2003Q1-2020Q1 with Hepsağ (2021), FADF and FKSS unit root tests. As a result of the Hepsağ unit root test with ADF and CSR tests applied to compare in the study, it was found that the current account of Russia is not stable, that is, the current account is unsustainable. As a result of the FADF and FKSS tests, it was determined that the current account is stable, as well as the current account of Russia is sustainable. Considering the changes that may occur in Russia's energy exports in the future along with the changes in energy policies in the world

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2006). Current account deficit sustainability in selected transition economies. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 24(1), 81-102.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bozoklu, Ş., & Yılancı, V. (2014). Current Account Sustainability in Emerging Markets: An Analysis with Linear and Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Tests. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(4), 251-264.
  • Ceylan, R., & Çeviş, İ. (2012). Enflasyon hedeflemesi̇ reji̇mi̇ öncesi̇ ve sonrasında Türki̇ye’de cari̇ açıkların sürdürülebi̇li̇rli̇ği̇. e-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, 7(4), 259-276.
  • Ceylan, R., Uz, İ., & Çeviş, İ. (2018). Kırılgan beşlide cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği: Doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile kanıtlar. Ege Akademik Bakış, 18(1), 121-134.
  • Chen, S.-W. (2010). Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in four industrial countries: a revisitation. Economics Bulletin, 30(2), 1474-1495.
  • Chen, S.-W. (2011). Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries. Economic modelling, 28(4), 1455-1464.
  • Chen, S.-W., & Xie, Z. (2015). Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity. International Review of Economics Finance, 38, 142-156.
  • Chortareas, G. E., Kapetanios, G., & Uctum, M. (2004). An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Nonstationarity Tests. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 8(1), 1-17. doi:doi:10.2202/1558-3708.1200
  • Christopoulos, D., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it? Journal of International Money Finance, 29(3), 442-459.
  • Chu, H.-P., Chang, T., Chang, H.-L., Su, C.-W., & Yuan, Y. (2007). Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics its Applications, 384(2), 485-492.
  • Cuestas, J. C. (2013). The current account sustainability of European transition economies. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(2), 232-245.
  • Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L. A., & De Gracia, F. P. (2010). European current account sustainability: New evidence based on unit roots and fractional integration. Eastern Economic Journal, 36(2), 177-187.
  • Demircioğlu Karabıyık , E. (2020). Latin Amerika Ülkelerinde Cari İşlemler Dengesi Sürdürülebilirliğinin Amprik Analizi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(10), 115-132.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Donoso, V., & Martin, V. J. T. J. o. I. T. (2014). Current account sustainability in Latin America. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 23(5), 735-753.
  • Dülger, F., & Özdemir, Z. A. (2005). Current Account Sustainability in Seven Developed Countries. Journal of Economic & Social Research, 7(2).
  • Gürdal, T., Kırca, M., İnal, V., & Değirmenci, T. (2018, 2th-14thSeptember 2018). Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Fourier Birim Kök Testi. Paper presented at the Business and Organization Research (International Conference), Karabük.
  • Hasdemir, E., Omay, T., & Denaux, Z. S. (2019). Testing the current account sustainability for BRICS countries: Evidence from a nonlinear framework. Economics Bulletin, 39(1), 310-320.
  • Hepsağ, A. (2021). A unit root test based on smooth transitions and nonlinear adjustment. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 50(3), 625-632.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2010). On the stationarity of current account deficits in the European Union. Review of International Economics, 18(4), 730-740.
  • Husted, S. (1992). The emerging US current account deficit in the 1980s: a cointegration analysis. The review of Economics Statistics, 159-166.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). International intertemporal solvency in OECD countries: evidence from panel unit root. Prague Economic Paper, 1.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Krugman, P., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. (2017). Uluslararası İktisat: Teori ve politika (O. Özsoy).
  • Kruse, R. (2011). A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics. Statistical Papers, 52(1), 71-85.
  • Kuo, C.-Y. (2016). Sustainability of Current Accounts: evidence from the quantile unit-root test. Applied Economics Letters, 23(10), 747-755.
  • Lanzafame, M. (2014). Current account sustainability in advanced economies. The Journal of International Trade Economic Development, 23(7), 1000-1017.
  • Lau, E., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Haw, C. T. (2006). Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior? Japan and the World Economy, 18(1), 90-107.
  • Leybourne, S., Newbold, P., & Vougas, D. (1998). Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1), 83-97.
  • McGettigan, D. (2000). Current account and external sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union: International monetary fund.
  • Saraç, H., & Sivri, U. (2019). Türkiye Ekonomisi Cari Açığı Sürdürülebilir Mi? Birim Kök Testleriyle Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2), 137-152.
  • Taştan, S., & Arıç, K. H. (2015). Is Current Account of Turkey Sustainable? Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests. Romanian Economic Journal, 18(57).
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to US federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit Banking, 23(2), 206-223.
  • Tovar-García, E. D., & Carrasco, C. A. (2019). The balance of payments and Russian economic growth. Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, 23(4), 524-541.
  • Wu, J.-L. (2000). Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test. Economics Letters, 66(2), 215-222.

RUSYA CARİ İŞLEMLER HESABININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ: HEPSAĞ, FADF, FKSS BİRİM KÖK TESTLERİ

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 4, 699 - 708, 31.12.2021

Abstract

Rusya’nın dış ticaret yapısı crude oil ve gas gibi dünya ekonomisinde önemli yere sahip iki ürün temelinden oluşmaktadır. Geçiş ekonomilerinin market-led sisteme geçiş süreçlerinde yaşadıkları temel sorunlardan biri olan car işlemler hesabı açıklarıyla çalışma dönemi boyunca Rusya karşılaşmamıştır. Çalışmanın temel amacı 2003Q1-2020Q1 döneminde Rusya’nın Cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülebilirliğinin Hepsağ (2021), FADF ve FKSS birim kök testleriyle incelemektedir. Çalışmada karşılaştırma yapmak üzere uygulanan ADF ve KSS testleriyle Hepsağ birim kök testi sonucunda Rusya’nın cari işlemler hesabının durağan olmadığı yani cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülemez olduğu soncunda ulaşılmıştır. FADF ve FKSS testleri sonucunda ise cari işlemler hesabının durağan olduğu yanı Rusya’nın cari işlemler hesabının sürdürülebilir olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Dünya’daki enerji politikalarında meydana gelen değişimlerle birlikte ileride Rusya’nın enerji ihracatında meydana gelebilecek değişimlerde göz önüne alındığında konunun önemi ortaya çıkmaktadır.

References

  • Aristovnik, A. (2006). Current account deficit sustainability in selected transition economies. Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci: Časopis za ekonomsku teoriju i praksu, 24(1), 81-102.
  • Becker, R., Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2006). A stationarity test in the presence of an unknown number of smooth breaks. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 27(3), 381-409.
  • Bozoklu, Ş., & Yılancı, V. (2014). Current Account Sustainability in Emerging Markets: An Analysis with Linear and Nonlinear Panel Unit Root Tests. Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 28(4), 251-264.
  • Ceylan, R., & Çeviş, İ. (2012). Enflasyon hedeflemesi̇ reji̇mi̇ öncesi̇ ve sonrasında Türki̇ye’de cari̇ açıkların sürdürülebi̇li̇rli̇ği̇. e-Journal of New World Sciences Academy, 7(4), 259-276.
  • Ceylan, R., Uz, İ., & Çeviş, İ. (2018). Kırılgan beşlide cari açıkların sürdürülebilirliği: Doğrusal olmayan birim kök testleri ile kanıtlar. Ege Akademik Bakış, 18(1), 121-134.
  • Chen, S.-W. (2010). Testing for the sustainability of the current account deficit in four industrial countries: a revisitation. Economics Bulletin, 30(2), 1474-1495.
  • Chen, S.-W. (2011). Current account deficits and sustainability: Evidence from the OECD countries. Economic modelling, 28(4), 1455-1464.
  • Chen, S.-W., & Xie, Z. (2015). Testing for current account sustainability under assumptions of smooth break and nonlinearity. International Review of Economics Finance, 38, 142-156.
  • Chortareas, G. E., Kapetanios, G., & Uctum, M. (2004). An Investigation of Current Account Solvency in Latin America Using Non Linear Nonstationarity Tests. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 8(1), 1-17. doi:doi:10.2202/1558-3708.1200
  • Christopoulos, D., & León-Ledesma, M. A. (2010). Current account sustainability in the US: What did we really know about it? Journal of International Money Finance, 29(3), 442-459.
  • Chu, H.-P., Chang, T., Chang, H.-L., Su, C.-W., & Yuan, Y. (2007). Mean reversion in the current account of forty-eight african countries: Evidence from the Panel SURADF test. Physica A: Statistical Mechanics its Applications, 384(2), 485-492.
  • Cuestas, J. C. (2013). The current account sustainability of European transition economies. Journal of Common Market Studies, 51(2), 232-245.
  • Cunado, J., Gil-Alana, L. A., & De Gracia, F. P. (2010). European current account sustainability: New evidence based on unit roots and fractional integration. Eastern Economic Journal, 36(2), 177-187.
  • Demircioğlu Karabıyık , E. (2020). Latin Amerika Ülkelerinde Cari İşlemler Dengesi Sürdürülebilirliğinin Amprik Analizi. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(10), 115-132.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Donoso, V., & Martin, V. J. T. J. o. I. T. (2014). Current account sustainability in Latin America. The Journal of International Trade and Economic Development, 23(5), 735-753.
  • Dülger, F., & Özdemir, Z. A. (2005). Current Account Sustainability in Seven Developed Countries. Journal of Economic & Social Research, 7(2).
  • Gürdal, T., Kırca, M., İnal, V., & Değirmenci, T. (2018, 2th-14thSeptember 2018). Cari Açığın Sürdürülebilirliği: Fourier Birim Kök Testi. Paper presented at the Business and Organization Research (International Conference), Karabük.
  • Hasdemir, E., Omay, T., & Denaux, Z. S. (2019). Testing the current account sustainability for BRICS countries: Evidence from a nonlinear framework. Economics Bulletin, 39(1), 310-320.
  • Hepsağ, A. (2021). A unit root test based on smooth transitions and nonlinear adjustment. Communications in Statistics-Simulation and Computation, 50(3), 625-632.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2010). On the stationarity of current account deficits in the European Union. Review of International Economics, 18(4), 730-740.
  • Husted, S. (1992). The emerging US current account deficit in the 1980s: a cointegration analysis. The review of Economics Statistics, 159-166.
  • Kalyoncu, H. (2006). International intertemporal solvency in OECD countries: evidence from panel unit root. Prague Economic Paper, 1.
  • Kapetanios, G., Shin, Y., & Snell, A. (2003). Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework. Journal of econometrics, 112(2), 359-379.
  • Krugman, P., Obstfeld, M., & Melitz, M. (2017). Uluslararası İktisat: Teori ve politika (O. Özsoy).
  • Kruse, R. (2011). A new unit root test against ESTAR based on a class of modified statistics. Statistical Papers, 52(1), 71-85.
  • Kuo, C.-Y. (2016). Sustainability of Current Accounts: evidence from the quantile unit-root test. Applied Economics Letters, 23(10), 747-755.
  • Lanzafame, M. (2014). Current account sustainability in advanced economies. The Journal of International Trade Economic Development, 23(7), 1000-1017.
  • Lau, E., Baharumshah, A. Z., & Haw, C. T. (2006). Current account: mean-reverting or random walk behavior? Japan and the World Economy, 18(1), 90-107.
  • Leybourne, S., Newbold, P., & Vougas, D. (1998). Unit roots and smooth transitions. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(1), 83-97.
  • McGettigan, D. (2000). Current account and external sustainability in the Baltics, Russia, and other countries of the former Soviet Union: International monetary fund.
  • Saraç, H., & Sivri, U. (2019). Türkiye Ekonomisi Cari Açığı Sürdürülebilir Mi? Birim Kök Testleriyle Bir İnceleme. Uluslararası Ekonomi ve Yenilik Dergisi, 5(2), 137-152.
  • Taştan, S., & Arıç, K. H. (2015). Is Current Account of Turkey Sustainable? Evidence from Nonlinear Unit Root Tests. Romanian Economic Journal, 18(57).
  • Trehan, B., & Walsh, C. E. (1991). Testing intertemporal budget constraints: Theory and applications to US federal budget and current account deficits. Journal of Money, Credit Banking, 23(2), 206-223.
  • Tovar-García, E. D., & Carrasco, C. A. (2019). The balance of payments and Russian economic growth. Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, 23(4), 524-541.
  • Wu, J.-L. (2000). Mean reversion of the current account: evidence from the panel data unit-root test. Economics Letters, 66(2), 215-222.
There are 36 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Araştırma Makaleleri
Authors

Yılmaz Toktaş 0000-0002-6996-7987

Early Pub Date December 31, 2021
Publication Date December 31, 2021
Submission Date August 20, 2021
Acceptance Date October 28, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 6 Issue: 4

Cite

APA Toktaş, Y. (2021). MAINTAINABILITY OF THE RUSSIAN CURRENT ACCOUNT: HEPSAĞ, FADF, FKSS UNIT ROOT TESTS. Finans Ekonomi Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(4), 699-708.