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Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri

Year 2017, Issue: 633, 61 - 78, 01.11.2017

Abstract

Çalışmada gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde hane halkının tasarrufları üzerinde etkili olan faktörler deneysel olarak analiz edilmiştir. Analizlerde makro ekonomik değişkenlere ve özellikle ekonomik dalgalanmaların etkilerine odaklanılmıştır. Literatürde tasarrufların makro ekonomik ve demografik belirleyicileri konusunda oldukça fazla deneysel çalışma yapılmış olmasına rağmen, döngüsel etkilerin fazla araştırılmadığı görülmektedir. Bu özelliği çalışmayı, benzerlerinden ayırmakta ve ilgili literatüre asıl katkısını oluşturmaktadır. Bu bağlamda özellikle çıktı açığı ve işsizlik açığı gibi ekonomik faaliyet hacmini yansıtan değişkenlerin tasarruflar üzerindeki etkileri araştırılmıştır. 1995-2015 dönemi yıllık verilerini kapsayan örneklem sistem dinamik panel veri modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular, hane halkı tasarruflarının uzun vadeli faiz oranları ve halkın net servetinden etkilendiği yönündedir. Bazı değişkenlerin çoklu doğrusal bağlantı sorununa neden oldukları düşüncesiyle, değişkenlerin tasarruflarla münferit ilişkileri de incelenmiştir. Çıktı açığı ve işsizlik açığı gibi değişkenlerin tasarrufları negatif etkiledikleri belirlenmiştir. Bu bulgular ekonomik dalgalanmaların tasarruflar üzerindeki etkilerini gösterdiğinden önemlidir. Tasarrufların teşvik edilmesinin sürdürülebilir büyüme açısından büyük önem taşıdığı görülmüştür. Politik otoritelerin tasarrufları teşvik etmeye yönelik kararlarında döngüsel etkileri dikkate almaları gerekmektedir

References

  • ADEMA, Yvonne and Lorenzo POZZI. (2015), “Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: Apanel data analysis”, European Economic Review, 79, pp. 214-233.
  • AGRAWAL, Pradeep, Pravakar, SAHOO and R. Kumar DASH. (2009), “Savings behaviour in South Asia”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 208-224.
  • AIZENMAN, Joshua, Yin-Wong CHEUNG and Hiro ITO. (2017). “The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives”, Asia Development Bank Institute, Working Papers, No. 715, April.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel and Stephen BOND. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Unemployment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel and Olympia BOVER. (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models, Journal of Econometrics”, 68(1), pp. 29-51.
  • ATHUKORALA, P. Chandra and Kunal SEN. (2008), “The Determinants of Private Saving in India”, World Development, 32(3), pp. 491-503.
  • BAHARUMSHAH, Ahmad Z., Marwan A. THANOON, and Salim RASHID. (2003), “Savings dynamics in Asian countries”. Journal of Asian Economics, 13(6), pp. 827–845.
  • BAUM, Christopher F. (2013). “Dynamic Panel Data Estimators”, Applied Econometrics, Unpublished Lecture Notes, Boston College.
  • BLUNDELL, Richard and Stephen BOND. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), pp. 115-143.
  • BOFINGER, Peter and Mathias RIES. (2017). “Excess Saving and Low Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Working Paper, No. DP12111, July.
  • BOYES, William and Michael MELVIN. (2016). Macroeconomics, 10th Edition, Boston, MA, Cengage Learning.
  • BRACKE, Thierry, and Michael FIDORA. (2012), “The MacroFinancial Factors Behind the Crisis: Global Liquidity Glut or Global Savings Glut?”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23, pp. 185-202.
  • DAYAL-GULATI, Anuradha, and Christian THIMANN. (1997), “Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared: Searching for Policy Lesson”, IMF Working Papers, No. WP/97/110, September.
  • De MELO, Jaime and James TYBOUT. (1986), “The effect of financial liberalization on saving and investment in Uruguay”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(3), pp. 561– 587.
  • DOKER, A. Cansin, Adem TURKMEN and O. Selcuk EMSEN. (2016), “What Are the Demographic Determinants of Savings? An Analysis on Transition Economies (1993-2013)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, pp. 275-283.
  • EDWARDS, Sebastian. (1996), “Why are Latin America’s Savings Rates so Low? An International Comparative Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 51, pp. 5-44.
  • EISFELDT, Andrea L. and Tyler MUIR. (2016), “Aggregate External Financing and Savings Waves”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 84, pp. 116-133.
  • GIOVANINNI, Alberto. (1985), “Saving and the Real Interest Rate in LDCs”, Journal of Development Economics, 18(2-3), pp. 197–217.
  • HORIOKA, C. Yuji and Akiko TERADA-HAGIWARA. (2012), “The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia”, Japan and the World Economy, 24, pp. 128-137.
  • HÖRDAHL, Peter, Jhuvesh SOBRUN and Philip TURNER. (2016). “Low Long-term Interest Rates as a Global Phenomenon”, BIS Working Papers, No. 574, August.
  • JBILI, Abdelali, Klaus ENDERS and Volker TREICHEL. (1997), “Financial Sector Reforms in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia: A Preliminary Assessment”, IMF Working Papers, No. WP/97/81, July.
  • ISMAIL, Aisha and Kashif RASHID. (2013), “Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp. 524-531.
  • KAPOUNEK, Svatopluk, Vilma DELTUVAITE, and Petr KORAB. (2016). “Determinants of Foreign Currency Savings: Evidence from Google Search Data”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, pp. 166-176.
  • KAYA, Vedat ve Gürkan EFE. (2015), “Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Dünyanın En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerine Teorik Bir Değerlendirme ve Panel Veri Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 29(2), ss. 251-278.
  • KWACK, S. Yeung and Y. Sun LEE. (2005). “What Determines Saving Rates in Korea? The Role of Demography”, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, pp. 861-873.
  • LAHIRI, Ashok. (1989), “Dynamics of Asian Savings: The Role of Growth and Age Structure”, IMF Staff Papers, 36(1), pp. 228–260.
  • MOHAN, Ramesh. (2006), “Casual Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth in Countries with Different Income Levels”, Economics Bulletin, 5(3), pp. 1–12.
  • NICKELL, Stephen. (1981). “Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects”, Econometrica, 49(6), pp. 1417-1426.
  • NICULESCU-ARON, Ileana and Constanta MIHAESCU. (2012), “Determinants of Household Savings in EU:What Policies for Increasing Savings?”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58, pp. 483-492.
  • NICULESCU-ARON, Ileana and Constanta MIHAESCU. (2014), “Modelling the Impact of Economic, Demographic and Social Determinants on Household Saving Rate in the Former Socialist Countries (Central and Eastern Europe)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 10, pp. 104-113.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M. (2008), “Financial Depth, Savings and Economic Growth in Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage”, Economic Modelling, 25, pp. 704-713.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M. (2009), “Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 708-718.
  • OKTAR, Suat ve Serhat YÜKSEL. (2016), “Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği”, Kastamonu Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 11, ss. 46-61.
  • RAMAJO, Julian, Agustin GARCIA and Montserrat FERRE. (2006), “Explaining Aggregate Private Saving Behaviour: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries”, Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2(5), pp. 311–315.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2006), “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata”, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No:103, December.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2008), A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No: 125, May.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2009), “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata”, The Stata Journal, 9(1), pp. 86-136.
  • SAHOO, Pravakar and R. Kumar DASH. (2013), “Financial sector development and domestic savings in South Asia”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp. 388-397.
  • SCHMIDT-HEBBEL, Klaus, Luis SERVEN, and Andres SOLOMANO. (1996), “Saving and investment: Paradigms, puzzles, policies”, World Bank Research Observer, 11(1), pp. 87–117.
  • SUN, Zhenzhen and Yaping WANG. (2015), “Corporate precautionary savings: Evidence from the recentfinancial crisis”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 56, pp. 175- 186.
  • TATOĞLU, Ferda Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi – Stata Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, İstanbul, Beta Yayınevi.
  • YARAŞIR, Sevinç ve B. Elif. YILMAZ. (2011), “OECD Ülkelerinde Özel Tasarruflar: Bir Bakış (1999-2007)”, Maliye Dergisi, 160(1), ss. 139-153.

Macroeconomic Determinants of House Hold Savings in Developed and Developing Countries

Year 2017, Issue: 633, 61 - 78, 01.11.2017

Abstract

In this study were analyzed empirically the factors influencing the household savings in the developed and developing countries. Analyzes focused on macroeconomic variables and particularly on the effects of economic fluctuations. Although much empirical study has been done on the macroeconomic and demographic determinants of savings in the literature, it is seen that cyclical effects have not been adequately researched. This feature distinguishes the study from its analogues and forms the real contribution to the relevant literature. In this context, the effects on the savings of variables that reflect the economic activity volume, especially the output gap and unemployment deficit, were investigated. The sample covering annual data the period 1995-2015 has been analyzed with system dynamic panel data models. Findings are that household savings are affected by long-term interest rates and people’s net wealth. Against the possible multicolinearity problem of some varibles, the individual relationships of variables with savings also have considered. Variables such as output gap and unemployment gap have been found to negatively impact savings. These findings are important because they show the effects of economic fluctuations on savings. Encouraging savings is crucial to sustainable growth. Political authorities need to consider cyclical effects in their decisions to encourage savings

References

  • ADEMA, Yvonne and Lorenzo POZZI. (2015), “Business cycle fluctuations and household saving in OECD countries: Apanel data analysis”, European Economic Review, 79, pp. 214-233.
  • AGRAWAL, Pradeep, Pravakar, SAHOO and R. Kumar DASH. (2009), “Savings behaviour in South Asia”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 208-224.
  • AIZENMAN, Joshua, Yin-Wong CHEUNG and Hiro ITO. (2017). “The Interest Rate Effect on Private Saving: Alternative Perspectives”, Asia Development Bank Institute, Working Papers, No. 715, April.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel and Stephen BOND. (1991), “Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Unemployment Equations”, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • ARELLANO, Manuel and Olympia BOVER. (1995), “Another Look at the Instrumental Variable Estimation of Error-Components Models, Journal of Econometrics”, 68(1), pp. 29-51.
  • ATHUKORALA, P. Chandra and Kunal SEN. (2008), “The Determinants of Private Saving in India”, World Development, 32(3), pp. 491-503.
  • BAHARUMSHAH, Ahmad Z., Marwan A. THANOON, and Salim RASHID. (2003), “Savings dynamics in Asian countries”. Journal of Asian Economics, 13(6), pp. 827–845.
  • BAUM, Christopher F. (2013). “Dynamic Panel Data Estimators”, Applied Econometrics, Unpublished Lecture Notes, Boston College.
  • BLUNDELL, Richard and Stephen BOND. (1998), “Initial Conditions and Moment Restrictions in Dynamic Panel Data Models”, Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), pp. 115-143.
  • BOFINGER, Peter and Mathias RIES. (2017). “Excess Saving and Low Interest Rates: Theory and Empirical Evidence”, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Working Paper, No. DP12111, July.
  • BOYES, William and Michael MELVIN. (2016). Macroeconomics, 10th Edition, Boston, MA, Cengage Learning.
  • BRACKE, Thierry, and Michael FIDORA. (2012), “The MacroFinancial Factors Behind the Crisis: Global Liquidity Glut or Global Savings Glut?”, North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 23, pp. 185-202.
  • DAYAL-GULATI, Anuradha, and Christian THIMANN. (1997), “Saving in Southeast Asia and Latin America Compared: Searching for Policy Lesson”, IMF Working Papers, No. WP/97/110, September.
  • De MELO, Jaime and James TYBOUT. (1986), “The effect of financial liberalization on saving and investment in Uruguay”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 34(3), pp. 561– 587.
  • DOKER, A. Cansin, Adem TURKMEN and O. Selcuk EMSEN. (2016), “What Are the Demographic Determinants of Savings? An Analysis on Transition Economies (1993-2013)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 39, pp. 275-283.
  • EDWARDS, Sebastian. (1996), “Why are Latin America’s Savings Rates so Low? An International Comparative Analysis”, Journal of Development Economics, 51, pp. 5-44.
  • EISFELDT, Andrea L. and Tyler MUIR. (2016), “Aggregate External Financing and Savings Waves”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 84, pp. 116-133.
  • GIOVANINNI, Alberto. (1985), “Saving and the Real Interest Rate in LDCs”, Journal of Development Economics, 18(2-3), pp. 197–217.
  • HORIOKA, C. Yuji and Akiko TERADA-HAGIWARA. (2012), “The Determinants and Long-term Projections of Saving Rates in Developing Asia”, Japan and the World Economy, 24, pp. 128-137.
  • HÖRDAHL, Peter, Jhuvesh SOBRUN and Philip TURNER. (2016). “Low Long-term Interest Rates as a Global Phenomenon”, BIS Working Papers, No. 574, August.
  • JBILI, Abdelali, Klaus ENDERS and Volker TREICHEL. (1997), “Financial Sector Reforms in Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia: A Preliminary Assessment”, IMF Working Papers, No. WP/97/81, July.
  • ISMAIL, Aisha and Kashif RASHID. (2013), “Determinants of household saving: Cointegrated evidence from Pakistan (1975–2011)”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp. 524-531.
  • KAPOUNEK, Svatopluk, Vilma DELTUVAITE, and Petr KORAB. (2016). “Determinants of Foreign Currency Savings: Evidence from Google Search Data”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, pp. 166-176.
  • KAYA, Vedat ve Gürkan EFE. (2015), “Yurtiçi Tasarruflar ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Dünyanın En Büyük İlk Yirmi Ekonomisi Üzerine Teorik Bir Değerlendirme ve Panel Veri Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 29(2), ss. 251-278.
  • KWACK, S. Yeung and Y. Sun LEE. (2005). “What Determines Saving Rates in Korea? The Role of Demography”, Journal of Asian Economics, 16, pp. 861-873.
  • LAHIRI, Ashok. (1989), “Dynamics of Asian Savings: The Role of Growth and Age Structure”, IMF Staff Papers, 36(1), pp. 228–260.
  • MOHAN, Ramesh. (2006), “Casual Relationship between Savings and Economic Growth in Countries with Different Income Levels”, Economics Bulletin, 5(3), pp. 1–12.
  • NICKELL, Stephen. (1981). “Biases in Dynamic Models with Fixed Effects”, Econometrica, 49(6), pp. 1417-1426.
  • NICULESCU-ARON, Ileana and Constanta MIHAESCU. (2012), “Determinants of Household Savings in EU:What Policies for Increasing Savings?”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 58, pp. 483-492.
  • NICULESCU-ARON, Ileana and Constanta MIHAESCU. (2014), “Modelling the Impact of Economic, Demographic and Social Determinants on Household Saving Rate in the Former Socialist Countries (Central and Eastern Europe)”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 10, pp. 104-113.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M. (2008), “Financial Depth, Savings and Economic Growth in Kenya: A Dynamic Causal Linkage”, Economic Modelling, 25, pp. 704-713.
  • ODHIAMBO, Nicholas M. (2009), “Savings and economic growth in South Africa: A multivariate causality test”, Journal of Policy Modeling, 31, pp. 708-718.
  • OKTAR, Suat ve Serhat YÜKSEL. (2016), “Avrupa Birliği Ülkelerinde İkiz Açık Hipotezinin Geçerliliği”, Kastamonu Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 11, ss. 46-61.
  • RAMAJO, Julian, Agustin GARCIA and Montserrat FERRE. (2006), “Explaining Aggregate Private Saving Behaviour: New Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries”, Applied Financial Economics Letters, 2(5), pp. 311–315.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2006), “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata”, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No:103, December.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2008), A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments, Center for Global Development Working Paper, No: 125, May.
  • ROODMAN, David. (2009), “How to Do xtabond2: An Introduction to “Difference” and “System” GMM in Stata”, The Stata Journal, 9(1), pp. 86-136.
  • SAHOO, Pravakar and R. Kumar DASH. (2013), “Financial sector development and domestic savings in South Asia”, Economic Modelling, 33, pp. 388-397.
  • SCHMIDT-HEBBEL, Klaus, Luis SERVEN, and Andres SOLOMANO. (1996), “Saving and investment: Paradigms, puzzles, policies”, World Bank Research Observer, 11(1), pp. 87–117.
  • SUN, Zhenzhen and Yaping WANG. (2015), “Corporate precautionary savings: Evidence from the recentfinancial crisis”, The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 56, pp. 175- 186.
  • TATOĞLU, Ferda Y. (2013). İleri Panel Veri Analizi – Stata Uygulamalı, 2. Baskı, İstanbul, Beta Yayınevi.
  • YARAŞIR, Sevinç ve B. Elif. YILMAZ. (2011), “OECD Ülkelerinde Özel Tasarruflar: Bir Bakış (1999-2007)”, Maliye Dergisi, 160(1), ss. 139-153.
There are 42 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

K. Batu Tunay

Publication Date November 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Issue: 633

Cite

APA Tunay, K. B. (2017). Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar(633), 61-78.
AMA Tunay KB. Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. FPEYD. November 2017;(633):61-78.
Chicago Tunay, K. Batu. “Gelişmiş Ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 633 (November 2017): 61-78.
EndNote Tunay KB (November 1, 2017) Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 633 61–78.
IEEE K. B. Tunay, “Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri”, FPEYD, no. 633, pp. 61–78, November 2017.
ISNAD Tunay, K. Batu. “Gelişmiş Ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri”. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar 633 (November 2017), 61-78.
JAMA Tunay KB. Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. FPEYD. 2017;:61–78.
MLA Tunay, K. Batu. “Gelişmiş Ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri”. Finans Politik Ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, no. 633, 2017, pp. 61-78.
Vancouver Tunay KB. Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Hane Halkı Tasarruflarının Makroekonomik Belirleyicileri. FPEYD. 2017(633):61-78.