Abstract
Savunma harcamalarının GSYH içindeki payının yüksek oluşu bazı ekonomilerde büyüme üzerinde olumsuz bir etki yaratmaktadır. Arz yönlü iktisatçılar bu etkinin, kaynakların daha verimli ve üretime dönük alanlarda değerlendirilmesiyle giderilebileceğini savunmaktadır. Keynesyen görüş ise askeri harcamaların çarpan mekanizması yoluyla iktisadi büyümeyi pozitif etkileyebileceğini öne sürmektedir. Bu argüman, artan savunma harcamalarının toplam harcamaları artıracağını, toplam harcamaların da toplam talebi artıracağını ve böylece iktisadi büyümenin ivme kazanacağı anlayışına dayanmaktadır. Savunma harcamaları sürekli yüksek seyreden ülkelerde bu duruma sebebiyet veren faktörler arasında savaş, deprem ve göçmen sorunları gibi jeopolitik riskler de gösterilebilir. Bu riskleri yüksek olan ülkelerin savunma harcamalarının da GSYH içinde görece önemli bir paya sahip olduğu gözlenebilmektedir. Ekonomi yazınında savunma harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi üzerine geniş bir literatür mevcut iken jeopolitik risklerin bu denkleme dahil olduğu çalışmalar az sayıdadır. Bu çalışma jeopolitik riskler ve savunma harcamalarının iktisadi büyüme ile nedensellik bağının varlığını MIST ülkeleri (Meksika, Endonezya, Güney Kore ve Türkiye) kapsamında tahmin etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Çalışma kapsamında jeopolitik risklerin ölçümü için GPR endeksi (Caldara & Lacoviello, 2022) kullanılarak Dumitrescu & Hurlin (2012) panel nedensellik testine başvurulmuştur. Sonuçlar büyümeden her iki değişkene doğru geri beslemeli nedenselliğe dair kanıtlar sunarken jeopolitik riskten savunma harcamalarına doğru bir nedenselliğe de işaret etmektedir.
References
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- Acemoglu, D. (2009). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
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- Beckley, M. (2010). Economic Development and Military Effectiveness. The Journal of Strategic Studies, 33(1), 43-79.
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
- Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
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- Caldara, D. & Lacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.
- Cappelen, Å., Gleditsch, N. P. & Bjerkholt, O. (1984). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
- Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
- Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
- Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P. & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
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- Lanrui, L., Rahman, Z. U., Khattak, S. I. & Hassan, M. M. (2022). Asymmetric Effect of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Nonlinear-ARDL Approach. Engineering Economics, 33(3), 316-325.
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- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Pieroni, L., d’Agostino, G. & Lorusso, M. (2008). Can We Declare Military Keynesianism Dead?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(5), 675-691.
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- SIPRI- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2022). Military Expenditure Database. https://milex.sipri.org/sipri (Erişim Tarihi 01.12.2022)
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- Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
- UNCTAD- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2022). Gross Domestic Product: Total and Per Capita, Current and Constant (2015) Prices, Annual ttps://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi 02.12.2022).
- Uzun, A. D., Kalayci, I. & Demirci, O. (2017). Defense Investment and Reconstructioning Industry: Vision 2023 of Turkey. 2017 International Conference on Transformations and Innovations in Management. 9-10 September 2017, Shanghai ,China.
- Topcu, N. (2022). Kuzey Kore’nin Gölgesinde Güney Kore’nin Güvenlik Hamleleri. https://www.ankasam.org/kuzey-korenin-golgesinde-guney-korenin-guvenlik-hamleleri/#_edn3 (Erişim Tarihi 21.12.2022).
- Yayla, N. & Tülümce, S. Y. (2017). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşenleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Wagner ya da Keynes?. Social Sciences, 12(4), 163-184.
The Relationship of Geopolitical Risks and Defense Expenditures with Economic Growth: The Example of MIST Countries
Abstract
The high share of defense expenditures in GDP has a negative effect on growth in some economies. Supply-side economists argue that this effect should be eliminated by utilizing resources in more efficient and production-oriented areas. The Keynesian view, on the other hand, argues that military spending can positively affect economic growth through the multiplier mechanism. This argument is based on the understanding that increasing defense expenditures will increase total expenditures, increase aggregate demand in total expenditures, and thus economic growth will gain momentum. Among the factors that cause this situation in countries with constantly high defense expenditures, geopolitical risks like war, earthquakes and immigration problems can be shown as examples for those expenditures. It can be observed that the defense expenditures of these countries with such risks have a relatively significant and high share in their respective GDPs. While there is extensive literature on the relationship between defense expenditures and economic growth in the economic literature, there are few studies that include geopolitical risks in this equation. This study aims to predict the existence of causality between geopolitical risks and defense expenditures and economic growth within the context of MIST countries (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey). Within the scope of the study, Dumitrescu & Hurlin’s (2012) panel causality test was applied by using the GPR index (Caldara & Lacoviello, 2022) for the measurement of geopolitical risks. The results obtained provide evidence of a causal relationship with feedback from economic growth to both variables, while also pointing to causality from geopolitical risk to defense spending.
References
- Abu-Bader, S. & Abu-Qarn, A. S. (2003). Government Expenditures, Military Spending and Economic Growth: Causality Evidence from Egypt, Israel, and Syria. Journal of Policy Modeling, 25(6-7), 567-583.
- Acemoglu, D. (2009). Introduction to Modern Economic Growth. Princeton University Press.
- Acemoglu D. & Robinson J. A. (2020) Ulusların Düşüşü: Güç, Zenginlik ve Yoksulluğun Kökenleri. F. R. Velioğlu (Çev.). Doğan Kitap.
- Beckley, M. (2010). Economic Development and Military Effectiveness. The Journal of Strategic Studies, 33(1), 43-79.
- Benoit, E. (1978). Growth and Defense in Developing Countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 26(2), 271-280.
- Breusch, T. S. & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
- Buzdağlı, Ö. & Özdemir, D. (2021). Jeopolitik Risk Endeksinin Askeri Harcamalar Üzerindeki Etkisi. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Vizyoner Dergisi, 12(29), 188-203.
- Caldara, D. & Lacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring Geopolitical Risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225.
- Cappelen, Å., Gleditsch, N. P. & Bjerkholt, O. (1984). Military Spending and Economic Growth in the OECD Countries. Journal of Peace Research, 21(4), 361-373.
- Dumitrescu, E. I. & Hurlin, C. (2012). Testing for Granger Non-Causality in Heterogeneous Panels. Economic Modelling, 29(4), 1450-1460.
- Dunne, P., Nikolaidou, E. & Vougas, D. (2001). Defence Spending and Economic Growth: A Causal Analysis for Greece and Turkey. Defence and Peace Economics, 12(1), 5-26.
- Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P. & Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
- Goertzel, T. & Braungart, R. (1985). Militarism as a Sociological Problem: The Political Sociology of Military Spending in the United States: 1951-1983. Research in Political Sociology, 119-140.
- Hirnissa, M. T., Habibullah, M. S. & Baharom, A. H. (2009). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth in Asean-5 Countries. Journal of Sustainable Development, 2(2), 192-202.
- IMF-International Monetary Fund. (2017). World Economic Outlook xvi, https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2017/09/19/world-economic-outlook-october-2017. (Erişim Tarihi 11.11.2022).
- Joerding, W. (1986). Economic Growth and Defense Spending: Granger Causality. Journal of Development Economics, 21(1), 35-40.
- Khan, K., Su, C. W. & Rizvi, S. K. A. (2022). Guns and Blood: A Review of Geopolitical Risk and Defence Expenditures. Defence and Peace Economics, 33(1), 42-58.
- Lanrui, L., Rahman, Z. U., Khattak, S. I. & Hassan, M. M. (2022). Asymmetric Effect of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Nonlinear-ARDL Approach. Engineering Economics, 33(3), 316-325.
- Naimoğlu, M. & Özbek, S. (2022). Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Yeniden Gözden Geçirilmesi: Fourier Yaklaşımı. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 37(1), 174-188.
- Ram, R. (1995). Defense Expenditure and Economic Growth. Handbook of Defense Economics, 1, 251-274.
- Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
- Pieroni, L., d’Agostino, G. & Lorusso, M. (2008). Can We Declare Military Keynesianism Dead?. Journal of Policy Modeling, 30(5), 675-691.
- Shaaba Saba, C. & Ngepah, N. (2019). Military Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence from a Heterogeneous Panel of African Countries. Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, 32(1), 3586-3606.
- SIPRI- Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. (2022). Military Expenditure Database. https://milex.sipri.org/sipri (Erişim Tarihi 01.12.2022)
- Soybilgen, B., Kaya, H. & Dedeoglu, D. (2019). Evaluating the Effect of Geopolitical Risks on the Growth Rates of Emerging Countries. Economics Bulletin, 39(1), 717-725.
- Swamy, P. A. (1970). Efficient Inference in a Random Coefficient Regression Model. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 311-323.
- Im, K. S., Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115(1), 53-74.
- UNCTAD- United Nations Conference on Trade and Development. (2022). Gross Domestic Product: Total and Per Capita, Current and Constant (2015) Prices, Annual ttps://unctadstat.unctad.org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx (Erişim Tarihi 02.12.2022).
- Uzun, A. D., Kalayci, I. & Demirci, O. (2017). Defense Investment and Reconstructioning Industry: Vision 2023 of Turkey. 2017 International Conference on Transformations and Innovations in Management. 9-10 September 2017, Shanghai ,China.
- Topcu, N. (2022). Kuzey Kore’nin Gölgesinde Güney Kore’nin Güvenlik Hamleleri. https://www.ankasam.org/kuzey-korenin-golgesinde-guney-korenin-guvenlik-hamleleri/#_edn3 (Erişim Tarihi 21.12.2022).
- Yayla, N. & Tülümce, S. Y. (2017). Türkiye’de Kamu Harcamalarının Bileşenleri ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Wagner ya da Keynes?. Social Sciences, 12(4), 163-184.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Growth |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | September 18, 2023 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2023 Volume: 7 Issue: 3 |
