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Türkiye Stock Market in the Shadow of COVID-19 Pandemic: A QARDL Approach

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 362 - 384, 28.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1317679

Abstract

This study examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the Türkiye stock market between March 14, 2020, and April 29, 2022, using the Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag (QARDL) model. The research investigates the relationship between the BIST100 index and selected economic indicators across quantiles ranging from 0.05 to 0.95. These indicators include daily new COVID-19 cases, the dollar exchange rate (FX), Brent crude oil prices (OIL), and credit default swap (CDS) rates. Findings indicate that an increase in COVID-19 cases has a negative impact on the stock market across various quantiles. While the dollar exchange rate generally shows a positive relationship with the BIST100 index, Brent crude oil prices, and CDS rates exhibit a negative impact. These results highlight the complex effects of both internal and external factors on the Türkiye stock market, providing significant insights for policymakers and future research.

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COVID-19 Pandemisinin Gölgesinde Türk Borsası: Bir QARDL Yaklaşımı

Year 2024, Volume: 8 Issue: 1, 362 - 384, 28.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1317679

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 14 Mart 2020 ile 29 Nisan 2022 tarihleri arasında COVID-19 pandemisinin Türk borsası üzerindeki etkilerini, Kantil Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (QARDL) modelini kullanarak incelemektedir. Araştırma, BIST100 endeksi ve seçilen ekonomik göstergeler arasındaki ilişkiyi 0,05'ten 0,95'e kadar değişen kantillerde inceler. Bu göstergeler COVID-19 günlük yeni vakaları, dolar kuru (FX), Brent petrol fiyatları (OIL) ve kredi temerrüt takası oranları (CDS)’dır. Bulgular, COVID-19 vakalarının artışının borsa üzerinde farklı kantillerde negatif bir etkisi olduğunu göstermektedir. Dolar kuru, BIST100 endeksi ile pozitif bir ilişki sergilerken, ham petrol fiyatları ve CDS oranları negatif bir etki göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar hem içsel hem de dışsal etkenlerin Türk borsası üzerindeki etkilerini ve bu etkilerin karmaşıklığını ortaya koymakta, politika yapıcıları ve gelecekteki araştırmalar için önemli çıkarımlar sunmaktadır.

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Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Panel Data Analysis
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Muhammet Atlas Doğan 0000-0002-4943-223X

Derese Kebede Teklie 0000-0001-6565-9998

Publication Date January 28, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 8 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Doğan, M. A., & Teklie, D. K. (2024). Türkiye Stock Market in the Shadow of COVID-19 Pandemic: A QARDL Approach. Fiscaoeconomia, 8(1), 362-384. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1317679

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