Research Article
BANKACILIK SEKTÖRÜ KREDİLERİNİN İSTİHDAM VE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİLERİ: TÜRKİYE EKONOMİSİ İÇİN ÇOKLU YAPISAL KIRILMALI EŞ BÜTÜNLEŞME ANALİZİ
Abstract
Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de bankacılık sektörü toplam kredi hacminin, istihdam ve ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, Carrion-i-Silvestre vd. (2009) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testi, Maki (2012) çoklu yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi ve dinamik en küçük kareler yöntemi yardımıyla, 2000:Q1-2012:Q4 dönemi için analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonucunda, Türkiye’de kredi hacmindeki artışların istihdamı ve ekonomik büyümeyi pozitif etkilediği tespit edilmiştir.
Keywords
References
- Aghion, P., P. Howitt, D. Mayer-Foulkes (2005), “The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, 120(1), 173-222.
- Aslan, Ö., I. Küçükaksoy (2006), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 4, 12-18.
- Bai, J., P. Perron (2003) “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1-22.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., A. Sanso (2006), “Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-646.
- Beck, T., R. Levine, N. Loayza (2000), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-47.
- Beck, T., R. Levine (2004), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 28, 423-442.
- Benmelech, E., N.K. Bergman, A. Seru (2011), “Finance and Unemployment”, NBER Working Paper, No. 17144.
- Bertrand, M., A. Schoar, D. Thesmar (2007), “Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985”, Journal of Finance, 62(2), 597- 628.
- Calderon, C., L. Liu (2002), “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 184.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., D. Kim, P. Perron (2009), “GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, 25, 1754-1792.
- Castillo, P.J. (2009), “Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis”, Asia-Pacific Social Science Review, 9(1), 41-46.
- Ceylan, S., M. Durkaya (2010), “Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 21-33.
- Esteve, V., F. Requena (2006), “A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change”, International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1), 111-128.
- Federici, D., F. Caprioli (2009), “Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 26, 285–294.
- Goldsmith, R.W. (1969), Financial Structure and Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
- Gregory, A.W., B.E. Hansen (1996), “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
- Gurley, J.G., E.S. Shaw (1955), “Financial Aspects of Economic Development”, American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538.
- Han, C.K. (2009), “Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts” Journal of Poverty, 13(1), 74-95.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2008), “Tests For Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”, Empirical Economics, 35, 497-505.
- Lee, J., M.C.Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Lumsdaine, R.L. D.H. Papell (1997), “Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212-218.
- King, R.G., R. Levine (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter may be Right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 713-737.
- Maki, D. (2012), “Tests For Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
- McCaig, B., T. Stengos (2005), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results”, Economics Letters, 88(3), 306–312.
- McKinnon, R.I. (1973) Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington DC: The Brooking Institution. Mencinger, J. (2009), “The “Addiction” with FDI and Current Account Balance”, Ekonomski Horizonti, 11(2), 5-17.
- Mercan, M. (2013), “Kredi Hacmindeki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 84, 54-71.
- Ng, S., P. Perron, (2001), “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554. Pagano, M., G. Pica (2012), “Finance and Employment”, Economic Policy, 27(69), 5-55.
- Patrick, H.T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174-189.
- Rajan, R.G., L. Zingales (1998), “Financial Dependence and Growth”, The American Economic Review, 88(3), 559-586.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(2), 1361-1401.
- Perron, P. (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables”, Journal of Econometric, 80: 355-385.
- Shabbir, G., S. Anwar, Z. Hussain, M. Imran (2012), “Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 260-268.
- Shaw, E.S. (1973), Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press.
- Stock, J., M.W. Watson (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
- TCMB-EVDS (2013), Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi ve GSYİH-Harcamalar Yöntemiyle.
- Tuğcu, C.T., A. Aslan (2012), “Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey”, Clute Institute International Conference, June, Rome, Italy, pp. 561- 565.
- TUİK (2013), Temel İstatistikler- İstihdam, İşsizlik ve Ücret, Ankara: TUİK. Westerlund, J., D. Edgerton (2006), “Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Lund University, Department of Economics, Working Papers, No: 13.
- Zivot, E., D. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
Year 2015,
Volume: 33 Issue: 2, 65 - 84, 27.08.2015
Abstract
-
References
- Aghion, P., P. Howitt, D. Mayer-Foulkes (2005), “The Effect of Financial Development on Convergence: Theory and Evidence”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, 120(1), 173-222.
- Aslan, Ö., I. Küçükaksoy (2006), “Finansal Gelişme ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Uygulama”, Ekonometri ve İstatistik, 4, 12-18.
- Bai, J., P. Perron (2003) “Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural Change Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 18, 1-22.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., A. Sanso (2006), “Testing the Null of Cointegration with Structural Breaks”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(5), 623-646.
- Beck, T., R. Levine, N. Loayza (2000), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 46(1), 31-47.
- Beck, T., R. Levine (2004), “Stock Markets, Banks, and Growth: Panel Evidence”, Journal of Banking & Finance, 28, 423-442.
- Benmelech, E., N.K. Bergman, A. Seru (2011), “Finance and Unemployment”, NBER Working Paper, No. 17144.
- Bertrand, M., A. Schoar, D. Thesmar (2007), “Banking Deregulation and Industry Structure: Evidence from the French Banking Reforms of 1985”, Journal of Finance, 62(2), 597- 628.
- Calderon, C., L. Liu (2002), “The Direction of Causality Between Financial Development and Economic Growth”, Central Bank of Chile Working Papers, No. 184.
- Carrion-i-Silvestre, J.L., D. Kim, P. Perron (2009), “GLS-Based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, 25, 1754-1792.
- Castillo, P.J. (2009), “Unemployment Threat of the Financial Crisis”, Asia-Pacific Social Science Review, 9(1), 41-46.
- Ceylan, S., M. Durkaya (2010), “Türkiye’de Kredi Kullanımı-Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 24(2), 21-33.
- Esteve, V., F. Requena (2006), “A Cointegration Analysis of Car Advertising and Sales Data in the Presence of Structural Change”, International Journal of the Economics of Business, 13(1), 111-128.
- Federici, D., F. Caprioli (2009), “Financial Development and Growth: An Empirical Analysis”, Economic Modelling, 26, 285–294.
- Goldsmith, R.W. (1969), Financial Structure and Economic Development, New Haven: Yale University Press.
- Gregory, A.W., B.E. Hansen (1996), “Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models With Regime Shifts”, Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
- Gurley, J.G., E.S. Shaw (1955), “Financial Aspects of Economic Development”, American Economic Review, 45(4), 515-538.
- Han, C.K. (2009), “Unemployment, Financial Hardship, and Savings in Individual Development Accounts” Journal of Poverty, 13(1), 74-95.
- Hatemi-J, A. (2008), “Tests For Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration”, Empirical Economics, 35, 497-505.
- Lee, J., M.C.Strazicich (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
- Lumsdaine, R.L. D.H. Papell (1997), “Multiple Trend Breaks and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 79, 212-218.
- King, R.G., R. Levine (1993), “Finance and Growth: Schumpeter may be Right”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3), 713-737.
- Maki, D. (2012), “Tests For Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011-2015.
- McCaig, B., T. Stengos (2005), “Financial Intermediation and Growth: Some Robustness Results”, Economics Letters, 88(3), 306–312.
- McKinnon, R.I. (1973) Money and Capital in Economic Development, Washington DC: The Brooking Institution. Mencinger, J. (2009), “The “Addiction” with FDI and Current Account Balance”, Ekonomski Horizonti, 11(2), 5-17.
- Mercan, M. (2013), “Kredi Hacmindeki Değişimlerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: Türkiye Ekonomisi İçin Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Bankacılar Dergisi, 84, 54-71.
- Ng, S., P. Perron, (2001), “Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power”, Econometrica, 69, 1519-1554. Pagano, M., G. Pica (2012), “Finance and Employment”, Economic Policy, 27(69), 5-55.
- Patrick, H.T. (1966), “Financial Development and Economic Growth in Underdeveloped Countries”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14, 174-189.
- Rajan, R.G., L. Zingales (1998), “Financial Dependence and Growth”, The American Economic Review, 88(3), 559-586.
- Perron, P. (1989), “The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis”, Econometrica, 57(2), 1361-1401.
- Perron, P. (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Veriables”, Journal of Econometric, 80: 355-385.
- Shabbir, G., S. Anwar, Z. Hussain, M. Imran (2012), “Contribution of Financial Sector Development in Reducing Unemployment in Pakistan”, International Journal of Economics and Finance, 4(1), 260-268.
- Shaw, E.S. (1973), Financial Deepening in Economic Development, New York: Oxford University Press.
- Stock, J., M.W. Watson (1993), “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems”, Econometrica, 61(4), 783-820.
- TCMB-EVDS (2013), Bankacılık Sektörü Kredi Hacmi ve GSYİH-Harcamalar Yöntemiyle.
- Tuğcu, C.T., A. Aslan (2012), “Financial Development and Employment: A VAR Analysis for the Case of Turkey”, Clute Institute International Conference, June, Rome, Italy, pp. 561- 565.
- TUİK (2013), Temel İstatistikler- İstihdam, İşsizlik ve Ücret, Ankara: TUİK. Westerlund, J., D. Edgerton (2006), “Simple Tests for Cointegration in Dependent Panels with Structural Breaks”, Lund University, Department of Economics, Working Papers, No: 13.
- Zivot, E., D. Andrews (1992), “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
There are 38 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | August 27, 2015 |
| Submission Date | July 7, 2015 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2015 Volume: 33 Issue: 2 |
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