Abstract
References
- IEA, “Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets. Technology and policy drivers 2005-2017”, Technology report, 2019.
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A study on the estimation of fuel consumption and emitted emissions from vehicles in Turkey until 2050
Abstract
In this study, the number of vehicles, fuel consumption, and emissions was estimated in two scenarios by using the logistic model until 2050. The fuel consumption estimations were studied in three groups as diesel, LPG, and gasoline. Also, diesel vehicles were inspected in three groups as passenger cars, light-duty, and heavy-duty vehicles. The annual mileage values of the vehicles and the average fuel consumption per 100 km have been calculated by considering similar studies and statistics. Future estimates of the number of vehicles have been made considering that the percentage of diesel vehicles will decrease in the next few years due to the prohibition of diesel vehicles in specific regions and the increasing demand for electric cars and hybrid vehicles. Emission estimates were made by considering the European Emission Standart and future expectations of Euro norms. The total fuel consumption was estimated as 10347 million liters (ML) gasoline, 50978 ML diesel, 12767 ML LPG, and 9390 ML gasoline, 45171 ML diesel, and 11568 ML LPG, respectively by the normal and optimistic scenario for 2050. The results also show that the total fuel consumption in 2050 will increase by 2.75 and 2.46 times, respectively, for the normal and optimistic scenario compared with fuel consumption in 2018. When emission estimates are examined, the increase in the number of electric/hybrid vehicles will reduce the emission amounts. If the two scenarios are compared for 2050, it is seen that the amount of CO2 in scenario B is 11.39% less than the amount in scenario A. In this case, the presence of 9.6% electric/hybrid vehicles in the market in the next 30 years brings about 11% less greenhouse gas emissions from vehicles.
References
- IEA, “Fuel Economy in Major Car Markets. Technology and policy drivers 2005-2017”, Technology report, 2019.
- https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=ulastirma-ve-haberlesme-112&dil=, Date of access: 10 May 2020.
- https://www.epdk.gov.tr/Detay/Icerik/3-0-107/yillik-sektor-raporu, Date of access: 21 June 2020.
- Aktaş, C., Yılmaz V., “Eskişehir’de LPG Kullanan Özel Araç Sürücülerinin Sınıflandırılmasında Lojistik Regresyon Analizi”, İstanbul Kent İçi Ulaşım Sempozyumu, İstanbul, 251-256, 2001.
- Lewis, D.M., “Forecasting Advective Sea Fog With The Use of Classification And Regression Tree Analyses For Kunsan Air Base”, Master’s Thesis, Air Force Institute of Technology Graduate School of Engineering and Management (AFIT/ENP), 2004.
- Ünsal, A., Güler, H., “Türk Bankacılık Sektörünün Lojistik Regresyon ve Diskriminant Analizi ile Incelenmesi”, VII. Ulusal Ekonometri ve İstatistik Sempozyumu, İstanbul University, 2005.
- Vupa, Ö., Çelikoglu, C., “Model Building in Logistic Regression Models About Lung Cancer Data”, Anadolu Ü. Bilim ve Teknoloji Dergisi, cilt: 7, 1, 127-141, 2006.
- Wu, Y., Zhao, P., Zhang, H., Wang, Y., Mao, G., “Assessment for fuel consumption and exhaust emissions of China’s vehicles: Future trends and policy implications”, The Scientific World Journal, 2012.
- Han, H., Yong, G., Joseph S., “Carbon footprint of global passenger cars: Scenarios through 2050”, Energy, 101, 121-131, 2016.
- Solmaz, H., Çelikten, İ., “Estimation of Amount of Pollutants Generated by Vehicles in Turkey Until 2030”, Gazi University Journal of Science, 25 (2), 495-503, 2012.
- UN, “World population prospects 2019”, 2019.
- Cokorilo, O., Ivkovic, I., Kaplanovic, S., “Prediction of Exhaust Emission Costs in Air and Road Transportation”, Sustainability, 11, 4688, 2019.
- Regulation, E. C., “No 595/2009 of the European Parliament and of The Council of 18 June 2009 on type-approval of motor vehicles and engines with respect to emissions from heavy duty vehicles (Euro VI) and on access to vehicle repair and maintenance information and amending Regulation (EC) No 715/2007 and Directive 2007/46/EC and repealing Directives 80/1269, Official Journal of the European Union, 2009.
- Regulation E.C., “No 715/2007 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 June 2007 on type approval of motor vehicles with respect to emissions from light passenger and commercial vehicles (Euro 5 and Euro 6) and on access to vehicle repair and maintenance information”, Official Journal of the European Union, L 171/1”, 2007.
- Regulation E.C., “2016/427 of 10 March 2016 amending Regulation (EC) No 692/2008 as regards emissions from light passenger and commercial vehicles (Euro 6)”, Official Journal of the European Union, L 82/1, 2016.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Engineering, Mechanical Engineering |
| Journal Section | Article |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | November 9, 2021 |
| Submission Date | October 23, 2020 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2021 Volume: 10 Issue: 3 |