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Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 12, 91 - 99, 30.06.2021

Abstract

References

  • Ashraf, B.N., (2020). Stock Markets’ Reaction to COVID-19: Cases or Fatalities?, Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 54, 101249, ISSN 0275-5319,
  • Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (2020). Economics in the Time of COVID-19. London: CEPR (Centre for Economic Policy Research) Press.
  • Barro, R., Ursua, J. and Weng, J. (2020). The Coronavirus and The Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, Working Paper 26866.
  • Çoban, O, Coşkun, Ö. ve Çoban, A. (2020). The Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Financial Markets: The Case of Turkey, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, Vol 19 COVID-19 Special Issue , 506-519 . DOI: 10.21547/jss.787158.
  • Daehler, T., Aizenman, J. and Jinjarak, Y. (2021). Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News, Working Paper 27903, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27903 (Erişim Tarihi 01.03.2021).
  • Dickey D. A. and Fuller W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), ss.1057 1072.
  • Ehsan, Z. (2020). A Vector Error Correction Model Analysis of Gold Prices- How Will COVID-19 Impact the Price of Gold?, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3644893 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644893. (Erişim Tarihi 29.02.2021).
  • Fetzer, T., Hensel, L., Hermle, J. and Roth, C. (2020). Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety, Arxiv:2003.03848. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.03848.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249.
  • Kartal, M.T. (2020). The Behavior of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spread: evidence from Turkey with the effect of Covid-19 pandemic[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020022.
  • Kılıç, Y. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77. Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H. and Potter, S. M. (1996). Impulse Response Analysis in Nonlinear Multivariate Models, Journal of Econometrics, 74, 119–147.
  • Lamouchi, R. A. and Badkook, R. O. (2020). Gold Prices Volatility among Major Events and During the Current COVID-19 Outbreak, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, Vol.9, No.4, 39-52.
  • Liu, H., Mazoor, A., Wang, C.Y., Zhang, L. and Mazoor, Z. (2020). “The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (8) 2-19.
  • Mensi, W., Sensoy, A., Vo, X.V. and Kang, S.H. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Asymmetric Multifractality of Gold and Oil Prices, Resources Policy, Volume 69, 101829, ISSN 0301-4207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101829.
  • Onali, E. (2020). COVID-19 and Stock Market Volatility, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3571453 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571453 (Erişim Tarihi: 29.12.2020).
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models, Economics Letters, 58, 17-29.
  • Takyi, P.O. and Bentum-Ennin, I., (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Performance ın Africa: a Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach, Journal of Economics and Business, 105968, ISSN 0148-6195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105968.
  • Topaloğlu, E. ve Ege, İ. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swapları (CDS) ile Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Zaman Serisi Analizleri, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12 (2), 1373-1393.
  • Ustalar, S.A. ve Şanlısoy, S. (2020). Covid-19 Küresel Salgınının BİST100 Getirisi Üzerine Etkisinin Analizi, 4th International Congress On Economics Finance And Energy “Political Economy of Energy Revolution”, 14-15 Ekim 2020, http://www.ayu.edu.tr/yayinlar/efe_kongre.pdf (Erişim Tarihi, 01.03.2021)
  • Vurur, N. ve Özen, E. (2020). Covid-19 Salgınının CDS Primleri ile Borsa Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Etkileri: Başlıca Avrupa Endeksleri İçin Bir Uygulama. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, Covid-19: Ekonomik, Politik ve Finansal Etkileri, 97-114. DOI: 10.30784/epfad.810614.
  • WHO (World Health Organization). (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) situation report-51. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_10, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2021).
  • Yousef, İ. and Shehadeh, E. (2020). Altın Fiyat Volatilitesi Üzerindeki COVID-19'un Etkisi, International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA) cilt. 0 (4), s. 353-364.

COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİ SÜRECİNDE KREDİ RİSK PRİMİ, HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI VE ALTIN FİYATLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLERİN ANALİZİ; TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2021, Volume: 6 Issue: 12, 91 - 99, 30.06.2021

Abstract

2019 yılı son çeyreğinde Çin’de ortaya çıkan ve 2020 yılı ilk çeyreğinde tüm dünyayı etkisi altına alan Covid-19 pandemisi, başta ekonomik olmak üzere, toplumsal bütünün her alanında derin etkiler ortaya çıkarmış ve çıkarmaya devam etmektedir. Özellikle vaka sayılarındaki artışın ortaya çıkardığı belirsizlik, birçok ülkede olduğu gibi Türkiye'de de finansal piyasalar üzerinde etkili olmaya devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada, Covid-19 pandemi dönemi (11/03/2020 ile 25/01/2021 arası) boyunca Türkiye özelinde; Covid-19 vaka sayıları, hisse senedi piyasası (BİST 100 endeksi), kredi risk pirimi (CDS) ve altın fiyatları (GAU/TL) arasındaki ilişki analiz edilmiştir. Çalışmanın amacı, Covid-19 pandemisinden önceki dönemde ilgili değişkenler arasında var olan nedensellik ilişkisinin, pandemi dönemindeki durumunu tespit etmektir. Çalışmanın bulguları genel anlamda, pandemi öncesi CDS, BİST 100 ve GAU/TL arasındaki nedensellik ilişkilerin, pandemi sürecinde de devam ettiğini göstermektedir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre; Covid-19 vaka sayıları, CDS, BİST 100 ve GAU/TL arasında koentegre ilişkisi olduğu belirlenmiştir. Bu ilişkinin yönü incelendiğinde Covid-19 vaka sayılarından CDS'ye doğru, CDS'den BİST 100'e doğru, CDS'den GAU/TL’ye doğru ve GAU/TL'den BİST 100'e doğru tek yönlü ilişki olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlardan hareketle politika yapıcılarına ve finansal piyasa aktörlerine uygulanabilir öneriler geliştirilmiştir.

References

  • Ashraf, B.N., (2020). Stock Markets’ Reaction to COVID-19: Cases or Fatalities?, Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 54, 101249, ISSN 0275-5319,
  • Baldwin, R. and Weder di Mauro, B. (2020). Economics in the Time of COVID-19. London: CEPR (Centre for Economic Policy Research) Press.
  • Barro, R., Ursua, J. and Weng, J. (2020). The Coronavirus and The Great Influenza Pandemic: Lessons from the "Spanish Flu" for the Coronavirus's Potential Effects on Mortality and Economic Activity. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Series, Working Paper 26866.
  • Çoban, O, Coşkun, Ö. ve Çoban, A. (2020). The Impact of the Covid-19 Crisis on Financial Markets: The Case of Turkey, Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, Vol 19 COVID-19 Special Issue , 506-519 . DOI: 10.21547/jss.787158.
  • Daehler, T., Aizenman, J. and Jinjarak, Y. (2021). Emerging Markets Sovereign CDS Spreads During COVID-19: Economics versus Epidemiology News, Working Paper 27903, http://www.nber.org/papers/w27903 (Erişim Tarihi 01.03.2021).
  • Dickey D. A. and Fuller W. A. (1981). “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), ss.1057 1072.
  • Ehsan, Z. (2020). A Vector Error Correction Model Analysis of Gold Prices- How Will COVID-19 Impact the Price of Gold?, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3644893 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3644893. (Erişim Tarihi 29.02.2021).
  • Fetzer, T., Hensel, L., Hermle, J. and Roth, C. (2020). Coronavirus Perceptions and Economic Anxiety, Arxiv:2003.03848. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2003.03848.pdf (Erişim Tarihi: 02.03.2021). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2020.101249.
  • Kartal, M.T. (2020). The Behavior of Sovereign Credit Default Swaps (CDS) spread: evidence from Turkey with the effect of Covid-19 pandemic[J]. Quantitative Finance and Economics, 4(3): 489-502. doi: 10.3934/QFE.2020022.
  • Kılıç, Y. (2020). Borsa İstanbul’da COVID-19 (Koronavirüs) Etkisi. Journal of Emerging Economies and Policy, 5(1), 66-77. Koop, G., Pesaran, M. H. and Potter, S. M. (1996). Impulse Response Analysis in Nonlinear Multivariate Models, Journal of Econometrics, 74, 119–147.
  • Lamouchi, R. A. and Badkook, R. O. (2020). Gold Prices Volatility among Major Events and During the Current COVID-19 Outbreak, Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, Vol.9, No.4, 39-52.
  • Liu, H., Mazoor, A., Wang, C.Y., Zhang, L. and Mazoor, Z. (2020). “The COVID-19 Outbreak and Affected Countries Stock Markets Response”. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17 (8) 2-19.
  • Mensi, W., Sensoy, A., Vo, X.V. and Kang, S.H. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak on Asymmetric Multifractality of Gold and Oil Prices, Resources Policy, Volume 69, 101829, ISSN 0301-4207, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2020.101829.
  • Onali, E. (2020). COVID-19 and Stock Market Volatility, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3571453 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3571453 (Erişim Tarihi: 29.12.2020).
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (1998). Generalized Impulse Response Analysis in Linear Multivariate Models, Economics Letters, 58, 17-29.
  • Takyi, P.O. and Bentum-Ennin, I., (2020). The Impact of COVID-19 on Stock Market Performance ın Africa: a Bayesian Structural Time Series Approach, Journal of Economics and Business, 105968, ISSN 0148-6195, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jeconbus.2020.105968.
  • Topaloğlu, E. ve Ege, İ. (2020). Kredi Temerrüt Swapları (CDS) ile Borsa İstanbul 100 Endeksi Arasındaki İlişki: Kısa ve Uzun Dönemli Zaman Serisi Analizleri, İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12 (2), 1373-1393.
  • Ustalar, S.A. ve Şanlısoy, S. (2020). Covid-19 Küresel Salgınının BİST100 Getirisi Üzerine Etkisinin Analizi, 4th International Congress On Economics Finance And Energy “Political Economy of Energy Revolution”, 14-15 Ekim 2020, http://www.ayu.edu.tr/yayinlar/efe_kongre.pdf (Erişim Tarihi, 01.03.2021)
  • Vurur, N. ve Özen, E. (2020). Covid-19 Salgınının CDS Primleri ile Borsa Endeksleri Arasındaki İlişki Üzerine Etkileri: Başlıca Avrupa Endeksleri İçin Bir Uygulama. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, Covid-19: Ekonomik, Politik ve Finansal Etkileri, 97-114. DOI: 10.30784/epfad.810614.
  • WHO (World Health Organization). (2020). Coronavirus Disease 2019 (Covid-19) situation report-51. https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200311-sitrep-51-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=1ba62e57_10, (Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2021).
  • Yousef, İ. and Shehadeh, E. (2020). Altın Fiyat Volatilitesi Üzerindeki COVID-19'un Etkisi, International Journal of Economics & Business Administration (IJEBA) cilt. 0 (4), s. 353-364.
There are 21 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Makaleler
Authors

Mehmet Yunus Çelik 0000-0003-4793-8306

Oğuz Kara 0000-0002-8934-5608

Publication Date June 30, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 6 Issue: 12

Cite

APA Çelik, M. Y., & Kara, O. (2021). COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİ SÜRECİNDE KREDİ RİSK PRİMİ, HİSSE SENEDİ PİYASASI VE ALTIN FİYATLARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİLERİN ANALİZİ; TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ. Uluslararası Afro-Avrasya Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(12), 91-99.

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