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Bölgesel Fiyat Farklılıkları ve Konut Fiyat Yakınsaması

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 8, 122 - 134, 28.08.2021

Aslı Afşar Emrah Doğan

Abstract

Konut piyasaları ve bu piyasalarda oluşan konut fiyatları makroekonomik ve finansal istikrara ilişkin önemli bir göstergedir. Çalışmada bu amaç doğrultusunda, Türkiye’de bölgesel konut fiyatları Kulüp Yakınsama Hipotezi çerçevesinde analiz edilmektedir. Çalışmada kullanılacak Türkiye’ye ait bölgesel panel verileri, 2010:01- 2021:04 dönemine kadar olan süreyi kapsamaktadır. Türkiye’de bölgesel konut fiyatları analizini yapabilmek için; Phillips ve Sul (2007) tarafından geliştirilen yakınsama testi kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada elde edilen bulgulara göre, Türkiye’de ele alınan tüm bölgeler içingeneş bir yakınsama kulübü olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Dolayısıyla çalışmada elde edilen sonuçlar, Türkiye’de bölgesel konut fiyatlarında yakınsamanın olduğunu göstermektedir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmada elde edilen bulguların Türkiye’de konut piyasasına yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesinde yol gösterici olması beklenmektedir.

Keywords

Konut Fiyatları Kulüp Yakınsama Panel veri

References

  • Abbott, A., & De Vita, G. (2012). Pairwise Convergence of District-Level House Prices in London. Urban Studies, 49(4), 721-740.
  • André, C., Gupta, R., & Mwamba, J. W. M. (2019). Are Housing Price Cycles Asymmetric? Evidence From The US States and Metropolitan Areas. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 23(1), 1-22.
  • Apergis, N. (2015). “Convergence in Public Expenditure across a Sample of Emerging Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(3): 448-462.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Convergence in US House Prices By State: Evidence From The Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 5(2), 103-111.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2017). Per Capita Carbondioxide Emissions Across U.S. States By Sector And Fossil Fuel Source: Evidence From Club Convergence Tests. Energy Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.027.
  • Apergis, N., Simo‐Kengne, B. D., & Gupta, R. (2015). Convergence in Provincial‐Level South African House Prices: Evidence From The Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 27(1), 2-17.
  • Balcilar, M., Beyene, A., Gupta, R., & Seleteng, M. (2013). Ripple Effects in South African House Prices. Urban Studies, 50(5), 876-894.
  • Bashar, O. H. (2020). An Intra-City Analysis of House Price Convergence and Spatial Dependence. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1-22.
  • Blanco, F., Martín, V., & Vazquez, G. (2016). Regional House Price Convergence in Spain During The Housing Boom. Urban Studies, 53(4), 775-798.
  • Chiang, S. H. (2014). Housing Markets in China and Policy İmplications: Comovement or Ripple Effect. China & World Economy, 22(6), 103-120.
  • Chow, W. W., Fung, M. K., & Cheng, A. C. (2016). Convergence and Spillover of House Prices in Chinese Cities. Applied Economics, 48(51), 4922-4941.
  • Churchill, S. A., Inekwe, J., & Ivanovski, K. (2018). House Price Convergence: Evidence From Australian Cities. Economics Letters, 170, 88-90.
  • Cook, S. (2003). The Convergence of Regional House Prices in The UK. Urban Studies, 40(11), 2285-2294.
  • Cook, S., & Watson, D. (2016). A New Perspective On The Ripple Effect in The UK Housing Market: Comovement, Cyclical Subsamples and Alternative Indices. Urban Studies, 53(14), 3048-3062.
  • De Bruyne, K., & Van Hove, J. (2013). Explaining The Spatial Variation in Housing Prices: An Economic Geography Approach. Applied Economics, 45(13), 1673-1689.
  • Demir, C., & Yıldırım, M. O. (2017). Convergence in House Prices Across OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Central European Review of Economic Issues, 20, 5-15.
  • Galor, O.(1996). “Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models”, The Economic Journal, 106 (437): 1056-1069.
  • Ganioğlu, A., & Seven, Ü. (2021). Do Regional House Prices Converge? Evidence From A Major Developing Economy. Central Bank Review, 21(1), 17-24.
  • Holly, S., Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2011). The Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in The UK. Journal of Urban Economics, 69(1), 2-23.
  • Holmes, M. J., & Grimes, A. (2008). Is There Long-Run Convergence Among Regional House Prices in The UK?. Urban studies, 45(8), 1531-1544.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2017). A Pair-Wise Analysis of Intra-City Price Convergence Within The Paris Housing Market. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 54(1), 1-16.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2018). Climbing The Property Ladder: An Analysis of Market Integration in London Property Prices. Urban Studies, 55(12), 2660-2681.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2019). Property Heterogeneity and Convergence Club Formation Among Local House Prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 43, 1-13.
  • Hu, J., Xiong, X., Cai, Y., & Yuan, F. (2020). The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China. Sustainability, 12(12), 5073.
  • Hudson, C., Hudson, J., & Morley, B. (2018). Differing House Price Linkages Across UK Regions: A Multi-Dimensional Recursive Ripple Model. Urban Studies, 55(8), 1636-1654.
  • Islam, N. (2003). What Have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate? Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(3), 309–362. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00197
  • Jin, C., & Lee, G. (2020). Exploring Spatiotemporal Dynamics in A Housing Market Using The Spatial Vector Autoregressive Lasso: A Case Study of Seoul, Korea. Transactions in GIS, 24(1), 27-43.
  • Kim, Y. S., & Rous, J. J. (2012). House Price Convergence: Evidence From US State and Metropolitan Area Panels. Journal of Housing Economics, 21(2), 169-186.
  • Maynou, L., Morley, B., Monfort, M., & Ordóñez, J. (2020). House Price Convergence Across Europe. Universitat Jaume I Working Paper, No. 2020/07.
  • Meen, G. (1999). Regional House Prices and The Ripple Effect: A New Interpretation. Housing Studies, 14(6), 733-753.
  • Meng, H., Xie, W. J., & Zhou, W. X. (2015). Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence From China’s Ten Key Cities. International Journal of Modern Physics B, 29(24), 1550181.
  • Merikas, A., Merika, A., Laopodis, N., & Triantafyllou, A. (2012). House Price Comovements in The Eurozone Economies. European Research Studies, 15(1), 71-98.
  • Miles, W. (2017). Has There Actually Been A Sustained Increase in The Synchronization of House Price (And Business) Cycles Across Countries?. Journal of Housing Economics, 36, 25-43.
  • Montagnoli, A., & Nagayasu, J. (2015). UK House Price Convergence Clubs and Spillovers. Journal of Housing Economics, 30, 50-58.
  • Nissan, E., & Payne, J. E. (2013). A Simple Test of σ-convergence in US Housing Prices across BEA Regions. Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 43(1100-2016-90116), 178-185.
  • Pesaran, Hashem M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, Hashem M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Papers, 1240, 1-39.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2007). Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests. Econometrica, 75(6): 1771-1855.
  • Saphores, J. D., & Aguilar-Benitez, I. (2005). Smelly Local Polluters and Residential Property Values: A Hedonic Analysis of Four Orange County (California) Cities. Estudios Económicos, 197-218.
  • Tomal, M. (2019). House Price Convergence on The Primary and Secondary Markets: Evidence From Polish Provincial Capitals. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 27(4), 62-73.
  • Tsai, I. C. (2018a). Housing Price Convergence, Transportation Infrastructure and Dynamic Regional Population Relocation. Habitat International, 79, 61-73.
  • Tsai, I. C. (2018b). House Price Convergence in Euro Zone and Non-Euro Zone Countries. Economic Systems, 42(2), 269-281.
  • Ulucak, R. (2017). Çevre Kalitesi Açısından Yakınsama Hipotezine Yeni Bir Bakış: Ekolojik Ayak İzi ve Kulüp Yakınsamaya Dayalı Ampirik Bir Analiz. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(4), 29-38.
  • Wu, Y. L., Lu, C. L., Chen, M. C., & Chu, F. N. (2017). What Forces Drive The Dynamic Interaction Between Regional Housing Prices?. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 225-239.
  • Yıldırım, A. & Kaya, A. (2020). Türkiye’de Bölgesel Konut Piyasası: Düzey-2 Bölgeleri İçin Yakınsama Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 28 (46), 157-172. DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.04.08
  • Żelazowski, K. (2019). Price Convergence in The Regional Housing Markets in Poland. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 27(2), 44-52.
  • Zhang, L., Hui, E. C., & Wen, H. (2017). The Regional House Prices in China: Ripple Effect or Differentiation. Habitat International, 67, 118-128.
  • Zhu, B., Füss, R., & Rottke, N. B. (2013). Spatial Linkages in Returns and Volatilities Among US Regional Housing Markets. Real Estate Economics, 41(1), 29-64.

REGIONAL PRICE DIFFERENCES AND HOUSING PRICE CONVERGENCE

Year 2021, Volume: 5 Issue: 8, 122 - 134, 28.08.2021

Aslı Afşar Emrah Doğan

Abstract

Housing markets and housing prices in these markets are important indicators of macroeconomic and financial stability. To this end, this study analyzes regional house prices in Turkey under the club convergence hypothesis. The regional panel data of Turkey to be used in the study covers the period from 2010:01 to 2021:04. To analyze the regional housing prices in Turkey, the convergence test developed by Phillips and Sul (2007) was used. According to the findings obtained in the study, it was concluded that there is a convergence club for all regions in Turkey. Therefore, the results obtained in the study show that there is a convergence of regional real estate prices in Turkey. In this context, it is expected that the findings obtained in the study will guide the development of strategies for the housing market in Turkey.

Keywords

Housing Prices Club Convergence Panel data

References

  • Abbott, A., & De Vita, G. (2012). Pairwise Convergence of District-Level House Prices in London. Urban Studies, 49(4), 721-740.
  • André, C., Gupta, R., & Mwamba, J. W. M. (2019). Are Housing Price Cycles Asymmetric? Evidence From The US States and Metropolitan Areas. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 23(1), 1-22.
  • Apergis, N. (2015). “Convergence in Public Expenditure across a Sample of Emerging Countries: Evidence from Club Convergence”. Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 51(3): 448-462.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2012). Convergence in US House Prices By State: Evidence From The Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure. Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, 5(2), 103-111.
  • Apergis, N., & Payne, J. E. (2017). Per Capita Carbondioxide Emissions Across U.S. States By Sector And Fossil Fuel Source: Evidence From Club Convergence Tests. Energy Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.11.027.
  • Apergis, N., Simo‐Kengne, B. D., & Gupta, R. (2015). Convergence in Provincial‐Level South African House Prices: Evidence From The Club Convergence and Clustering Procedure. Review of Urban & Regional Development Studies, 27(1), 2-17.
  • Balcilar, M., Beyene, A., Gupta, R., & Seleteng, M. (2013). Ripple Effects in South African House Prices. Urban Studies, 50(5), 876-894.
  • Bashar, O. H. (2020). An Intra-City Analysis of House Price Convergence and Spatial Dependence. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 1-22.
  • Blanco, F., Martín, V., & Vazquez, G. (2016). Regional House Price Convergence in Spain During The Housing Boom. Urban Studies, 53(4), 775-798.
  • Chiang, S. H. (2014). Housing Markets in China and Policy İmplications: Comovement or Ripple Effect. China & World Economy, 22(6), 103-120.
  • Chow, W. W., Fung, M. K., & Cheng, A. C. (2016). Convergence and Spillover of House Prices in Chinese Cities. Applied Economics, 48(51), 4922-4941.
  • Churchill, S. A., Inekwe, J., & Ivanovski, K. (2018). House Price Convergence: Evidence From Australian Cities. Economics Letters, 170, 88-90.
  • Cook, S. (2003). The Convergence of Regional House Prices in The UK. Urban Studies, 40(11), 2285-2294.
  • Cook, S., & Watson, D. (2016). A New Perspective On The Ripple Effect in The UK Housing Market: Comovement, Cyclical Subsamples and Alternative Indices. Urban Studies, 53(14), 3048-3062.
  • De Bruyne, K., & Van Hove, J. (2013). Explaining The Spatial Variation in Housing Prices: An Economic Geography Approach. Applied Economics, 45(13), 1673-1689.
  • Demir, C., & Yıldırım, M. O. (2017). Convergence in House Prices Across OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis. Central European Review of Economic Issues, 20, 5-15.
  • Galor, O.(1996). “Convergence? Inferences from Theoretical Models”, The Economic Journal, 106 (437): 1056-1069.
  • Ganioğlu, A., & Seven, Ü. (2021). Do Regional House Prices Converge? Evidence From A Major Developing Economy. Central Bank Review, 21(1), 17-24.
  • Holly, S., Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2011). The Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in The UK. Journal of Urban Economics, 69(1), 2-23.
  • Holmes, M. J., & Grimes, A. (2008). Is There Long-Run Convergence Among Regional House Prices in The UK?. Urban studies, 45(8), 1531-1544.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2017). A Pair-Wise Analysis of Intra-City Price Convergence Within The Paris Housing Market. The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 54(1), 1-16.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2018). Climbing The Property Ladder: An Analysis of Market Integration in London Property Prices. Urban Studies, 55(12), 2660-2681.
  • Holmes, M. J., Otero, J., & Panagiotidis, T. (2019). Property Heterogeneity and Convergence Club Formation Among Local House Prices. Journal of Housing Economics, 43, 1-13.
  • Hu, J., Xiong, X., Cai, Y., & Yuan, F. (2020). The Ripple Effect and Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Intra-Urban Housing Prices at the Submarket Level in Shanghai, China. Sustainability, 12(12), 5073.
  • Hudson, C., Hudson, J., & Morley, B. (2018). Differing House Price Linkages Across UK Regions: A Multi-Dimensional Recursive Ripple Model. Urban Studies, 55(8), 1636-1654.
  • Islam, N. (2003). What Have We Learnt from the Convergence Debate? Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(3), 309–362. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-6419.00197
  • Jin, C., & Lee, G. (2020). Exploring Spatiotemporal Dynamics in A Housing Market Using The Spatial Vector Autoregressive Lasso: A Case Study of Seoul, Korea. Transactions in GIS, 24(1), 27-43.
  • Kim, Y. S., & Rous, J. J. (2012). House Price Convergence: Evidence From US State and Metropolitan Area Panels. Journal of Housing Economics, 21(2), 169-186.
  • Maynou, L., Morley, B., Monfort, M., & Ordóñez, J. (2020). House Price Convergence Across Europe. Universitat Jaume I Working Paper, No. 2020/07.
  • Meen, G. (1999). Regional House Prices and The Ripple Effect: A New Interpretation. Housing Studies, 14(6), 733-753.
  • Meng, H., Xie, W. J., & Zhou, W. X. (2015). Club Convergence of House Prices: Evidence From China’s Ten Key Cities. International Journal of Modern Physics B, 29(24), 1550181.
  • Merikas, A., Merika, A., Laopodis, N., & Triantafyllou, A. (2012). House Price Comovements in The Eurozone Economies. European Research Studies, 15(1), 71-98.
  • Miles, W. (2017). Has There Actually Been A Sustained Increase in The Synchronization of House Price (And Business) Cycles Across Countries?. Journal of Housing Economics, 36, 25-43.
  • Montagnoli, A., & Nagayasu, J. (2015). UK House Price Convergence Clubs and Spillovers. Journal of Housing Economics, 30, 50-58.
  • Nissan, E., & Payne, J. E. (2013). A Simple Test of σ-convergence in US Housing Prices across BEA Regions. Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 43(1100-2016-90116), 178-185.
  • Pesaran, Hashem M. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in The Presence of Cross-Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22 (2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, Hashem M. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. IZA Discussion Papers, 1240, 1-39.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2007). Transition Modeling and Econometric Convergence Tests. Econometrica, 75(6): 1771-1855.
  • Saphores, J. D., & Aguilar-Benitez, I. (2005). Smelly Local Polluters and Residential Property Values: A Hedonic Analysis of Four Orange County (California) Cities. Estudios Económicos, 197-218.
  • Tomal, M. (2019). House Price Convergence on The Primary and Secondary Markets: Evidence From Polish Provincial Capitals. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 27(4), 62-73.
  • Tsai, I. C. (2018a). Housing Price Convergence, Transportation Infrastructure and Dynamic Regional Population Relocation. Habitat International, 79, 61-73.
  • Tsai, I. C. (2018b). House Price Convergence in Euro Zone and Non-Euro Zone Countries. Economic Systems, 42(2), 269-281.
  • Ulucak, R. (2017). Çevre Kalitesi Açısından Yakınsama Hipotezine Yeni Bir Bakış: Ekolojik Ayak İzi ve Kulüp Yakınsamaya Dayalı Ampirik Bir Analiz. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(4), 29-38.
  • Wu, Y. L., Lu, C. L., Chen, M. C., & Chu, F. N. (2017). What Forces Drive The Dynamic Interaction Between Regional Housing Prices?. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 21(3), 225-239.
  • Yıldırım, A. & Kaya, A. (2020). Türkiye’de Bölgesel Konut Piyasası: Düzey-2 Bölgeleri İçin Yakınsama Analizi. Sosyoekonomi, 28 (46), 157-172. DOI: 10.17233/sosyoekonomi.2020.04.08
  • Żelazowski, K. (2019). Price Convergence in The Regional Housing Markets in Poland. Real Estate Management and Valuation, 27(2), 44-52.
  • Zhang, L., Hui, E. C., & Wen, H. (2017). The Regional House Prices in China: Ripple Effect or Differentiation. Habitat International, 67, 118-128.
  • Zhu, B., Füss, R., & Rottke, N. B. (2013). Spatial Linkages in Returns and Volatilities Among US Regional Housing Markets. Real Estate Economics, 41(1), 29-64.
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Aslı Afşar 0000-0001-7031-1419

Emrah Doğan 0000-0001-9870-5719

Publication Date August 28, 2021
Submission Date July 17, 2021
Acceptance Date August 26, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 5 Issue: 8

Cite

APA Afşar, A., & Doğan, E. (2021). Bölgesel Fiyat Farklılıkları ve Konut Fiyat Yakınsaması. International Journal of Entrepreneurship and Management Inquiries, 5(8), 122-134.
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