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Finansal Gelişme Politik İstikrara Destek Olur mu? Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerinden Örnekler

Year 2020, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 52 - 59, 25.06.2020

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Brezilya, Hindistan, Endonezya, Güney Afrika ve Türkiye ekonomilerinde finansal gelişme ve politik istikrar arasındaki ilişki panel veri ekonometrisi aracılığı ile incelenmiştir. Analiz periyodu 2002-2017 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, her iki değişkenin düzey değerinde birim kök taşıdıkları ve yatay kesit bağımlılığı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Kısa dönemde finansal gelişme ve politik istikrar arasında nedensellik bulunmamaktadır. Uzun dönemde ise finansal gelişmeden politik istikrara doğru nedensellik tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca Hindistan’da ve Türkiye’de politik istikrardan finansal gelişmeye doğru, Hindistan’da, Güney Afrika’da ve Türkiye’de finansal gelişmeden politik istikrara doğru ise nedensellik bulunmaktadır.

References

  • Alesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic policy in a two-party system as a repeated game. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 651-678.
  • Breusch, T., Pagan, A., 1980. The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specification in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud. 47, 239–253.
  • Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of political action in a democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150. Emirmahmutoğlu, F. And Kose, N. (2011), “Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels”, Economic Modelling , 28, 870–876.
  • Hibbs, D. A. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy. American political science review, 71(04), 1467-1487.
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The quarterly journal of economics, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American economic review, 537-558.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle. The review of economic studies, 42(2), 169-190. Pesaran, Hasem, M., (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Working Paper No:0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T., 2008. A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross section independence. Econometrics Journal 11, 105–127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (1998). Financial intermediation and economic performance: historical evidence from five industrialized countries. Journal of money, credit and banking, 657-678.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
Year 2020, Volume: 6 Issue: 1, 52 - 59, 25.06.2020

Abstract

References

  • Alesina, A. (1987). Macroeconomic policy in a two-party system as a repeated game. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 102(3), 651-678.
  • Breusch, T., Pagan, A., 1980. The Lagrange multiplier test and its application to model specification in econometrics. Rev. Econ. Stud. 47, 239–253.
  • Downs, A. (1957). An economic theory of political action in a democracy. Journal of Political Economy, 65(2), 135-150. Emirmahmutoğlu, F. And Kose, N. (2011), “Testing for Granger Causality in Heterogeneous Mixed Panels”, Economic Modelling , 28, 870–876.
  • Hibbs, D. A. (1977). Political parties and macroeconomic policy. American political science review, 71(04), 1467-1487.
  • King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The quarterly journal of economics, 108(3), 717-737.
  • Levine, R., & Zervos, S. (1998). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth. American economic review, 537-558.
  • Nordhaus, W. D. (1975). The political business cycle. The review of economic studies, 42(2), 169-190. Pesaran, Hasem, M., (2004), “General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels”, Working Paper No:0435, University of Cambridge.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A., Yamagata, T., 2008. A bias-adjusted LM test of error cross section independence. Econometrics Journal 11, 105–127.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of Econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (1998). Financial intermediation and economic performance: historical evidence from five industrialized countries. Journal of money, credit and banking, 657-678.
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for error correction in panel data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
There are 12 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research
Authors

Halil Oğuzhan Ergür 0000-0001-9475-7036

Yavuz Özek 0000-0003-4517-4875

Publication Date June 25, 2020
Submission Date February 28, 2020
Acceptance Date June 4, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 6 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Ergür, H. O., & Özek, Y. (2020). Finansal Gelişme Politik İstikrara Destek Olur mu? Kırılgan Beşli Ülkelerinden Örnekler. Uluslararası Kültürel Ve Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 6(1), 52-59.

 International Journal of Cultural and Social Studies