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Jeopolitik Riskin Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları Üzerine Yansımaları: Türkiye Örneği

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 1292 - 1309, 30.09.2023

Ali Altıner Eda Bozkurt

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1271884

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerde sürdürülebilir iktisadi büyümeyi sağlamanın bir yolu yurtiçi tasarruflarla yatırımları artırmaktır. Fakat her ülke yurtiçi tasarruflar açısından eşit şansa sahip değildir. Tasarruf açığı olan ülkelerde özel yatırım harcamaları istenilen düzeye ulaşamamaktadır. Bu durumda ülkelerin yatırım ihtiyacını karşılamada doğrudan yabancı sermaye yatırımları (FDI) daha kıymetli hale gelmektedir. Fakat firmalar başka ülkelere yatırım aksiyonlarında çok cesur davranamayabilirler. Yatırımın doğasında önemli ölçüde risk ve belirsizlikten kaçınma bulunmaktadır. Çünkü belirsizlik ve risk bir ülke için istikrarsızlığın habercisi olarak kabul edilmektedir. Firmaların ana amacı kar elde etmek olduğundan, istikrarsız bir ekonomide kar elde etme olanaklarının olmayacağı fikrine kapılabilirler. Bu sebeple gelişmekte olan ülkelerin, FDI girişleri için çekici hale gelmelerinde yatırım ortamında risk algısının düşük olması gerekmektedir. Ülkelerin maruz kalacağı ekonomik, politik ve stratejik riskler kadar jeopolitik riskler de FDI girişlerinde dikkate alınan önemli bir göstergedir. Literatür araştırmaları kar iştahıyla yatırım yapma konusunda agresif ve istisna olanlar dışında yatırımcıların jeopolitik risklere duyarlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Yani jeopolitik risklerin artış eğilimi gösterdiği ülkelerde FDI azalmaktadır. Bu çalışmada literatürdeki bu varsayımın Türkiye açısından geçerliliği test edilmiştir. Jeopolitik risklerin FDI üzerindeki etkisi 1985-2020 dönemi için ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı ile analiz edilmiştir. Bağımlı değişken olarak FDI girişleri, bağımsız değişken olarak jeopolitik riskin bir ölçüsü olan Jeopolitik Risk (GPR) endeksi kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca büyüme, küreselleşme ve enflasyon analiz edilen diğer bağımsız değişkenlerdir. Test sonuçları, GPR endeksindeki yükselişin FDI girişleri üzerinde negatif etkili olduğunu göstermiştir. Çalışma elde edilen sonuçlar itibariyle, yabancı yatırım performansının değerlendirilmesinde jeopolitik risk faktörünün önceliklendirilmesi hususunda önemli bir bakış açısı sunmaktadır.

Keywords

ARDL Sınır Testi Doğrudan Yabancı Sermaye Yatırımları Ekonomik Büyüme Jeopolitik Risk

References

  • Afşar, M., Doğan, E. and Doğan, B. Ö. (2021). Does higher geopolitical risk limits Turkish foreign direct investments?, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1456-1475.
  • Akel, V. and Gazel, S. (2014). Döviz kurları ile BIST sanayi endeksi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi: Bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı [The cointegration linkages between exchange rates and BIST industrial index: An ARDL bound testing approach], Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 44: 23-41.
  • Arslan, C. K. (2019). Jeopolitik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi [The effect of geoplolitical risk on foreign direct investments]. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi (ASEAD), 6(6):435-441.
  • Asaad, Z. A., Marane, M. O., and Mustafa, H. M. (2020). The impact of Geopolitical Risks and the Human Development on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Iraq for the Period (2004-2018). Global Journal of Business and Economics, 9(1), 37-54.
  • Ayten, E. C. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicilerine ilişkin ekonometrik bir analiz: Türkiye örneği. Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara.
  • Bussy, A. and Zheng, H. (2023). Responses of FDI to geopolitical risks: The role of governance, information, and technology. International Business Review, 102136, 1-15.
  • Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225. https://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823.
  • Ceyhan, T. and Gulcan, N. (2022). Jeopolitik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve finansal gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki: Kónya panel nedensellik analizi [The relationship between geoplolitical risk and foreign direct investments and financial development: Kónya panel causality analysis]. Business and Economics Research Journal, 13(4), 625-637.
  • Chanegriha, M., Stewart, C. and Tsoukis, C. (2017). Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: An extreme bounds analysis. Empirical Economics, 52, 759-776. Dalby, S. 2013. The Geopolitics of climate change. Political Geography, 37, 38–47. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.09.004.
  • Daştan, M., Karabulut, K. and Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2022). The nexus between uncertainty and foreign direct investment flows to G20 member countries. Ekonomski Pregled, 73(5), 717-738.
  • De Angelo, C. F., Eunni, R. V. and Fouto, N. M. M. D. (2010). Determinants of FDI in emerging markets: evidence from Brazil. International Journal of Commerce and Management. 20 (3), 203-216.
  • Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K. and Pişkin, A. (2019). Yönetişim kalitesi, jeopolitik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneği [Governance quality, geopolitical risk and foreign direct investment: Evidence from developing countries]. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 650 Aralık, 51-69.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Dissanayake, R., Mehrotra, V. and Wu, Y. (2018). Geopolitical risk, financial slack and capital investments. Financial Slack and Capital Investments (July 29, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3222198 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3222198.
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty (2023). https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html. Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Fania, N., Yan, C., Kuyon, J. B. and Djeri, S. (2020). Geopolitical risks (GPRs) and foreign direct investments: A business risk approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 20(B1), 1-8.
  • Feng, C., Han, L., Vigne, S. and Xu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 82, 101693.
  • Giblin, B. (2013). Economics and geopolitics: A relationship worth (re) considering. Hérodote, 151(4), 3-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/her.151.0003.
  • Jessop, B. and Sum, N. L. (2018). Geopolitics: Putting geopolitics in its place in cultural political economy. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 50(2), 474-478. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0308518X17731106.
  • Kim, Y. S., Park, K. J. and Kwon, O. B. (2019). Geopolitical risk and trading patterns of foreign and domestic investors: Evidence from Korea. Asia‐Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 48(2), 269-298.
  • KOF Swiss Economic Institute (2023). https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html, Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Li, J., Van Assche, A., Li, L. and Qian, G. (2022). Foreign direct investment along the Belt and Road: A political economy perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(5), 902-919.
  • Le, A. T. and Tran, T. P. (2021). Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 62, 100703. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2021.100703.
  • Lu, B. and Liu, W. (2022). Does comprehensive geopolitical risk deter FDI Outflows: Evidence from China. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2022.2160140.
  • Luo, D. Y. (2021). Make Money Move: Understanding the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Direct Investment. Undergraduate Honours Thesis, The University of British Columbia.
  • Marangoz, C. (2022). Ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkileri: MS-VAR modelinden kanıtlar. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Nguyen, T. T. T., Pham, B. T. and Sala, H. (2022). Being an emerging economy: To what extent do geopolitical risks hamper technology and FDI inflows?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 728-746.
  • Overland, I. (2015). Future petroleum geopolitics: Consequences of climate policy and unconventional oil and gas. Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, Jun 4, 1–29 doi:10.1002/9781118991978.hces203.
  • Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G. and Uysal, D. (2022). Jeopolitik risk ve yolsuzluğun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar için önemi: Türkiye için ampirik bulgular [The importance of geopolitical risk and corruption for foreign direct investments: Empirical findings for Turkey]. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 257-286.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75(2): 335–346.
  • Rauf, S., Mehmood, R., Rauf, A. and Mehmood, S. (2016). Integrated model to measure the impact of terrorism and political stability on FDI inflows: empirical study of Pakistan. International journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 1-7.
  • Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. and Mateos, J. C. R. (2017). Forecasting geopolitical risks: Oceans as source of instability. Marine Policy, 75, 19-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.10.009.
  • Süslü, B. and Bekmez, S. (2010). Türkiye’de zaman tutarsızlığının ARDL yöntemi ile incelenmesi [An analysis of time inconsistency in Turkey with ARDL method], BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 4(2): 85-110.
  • Thakkar, N. and Ayub, K. A. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Globalization. The Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 24(3), 140-150.
  • Wang, X., Wu, Y. and Xu, W. (2019). Geopolitical Risk and investment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming.
  • World Bank, World Development Indicators. (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Yu, M. and Wang, N. (2023). The influence of geopolitical risk on international direct investment and its countermeasures. Sustainability, 15, 2522. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15032522.
  • Zeng, K. and Li, X. (2019). Geopolitics, nationalism, and foreign direct investment: Perceptions of the China threat and American public attitudes toward Chinese FDI. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 12(4), 495-518.

Reflections of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Türkiye

Year 2023, Volume: 12 Issue: 3, 1292 - 1309, 30.09.2023

Ali Altıner Eda Bozkurt

https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1271884

Abstract

A way to achieve sustainable economic growth in developing countries is to increase investments with domestic savings. However, not every country has an equal opportunity in terms of domestic savings. The desired level of investment expenditures cannot be reached in countries with a savings gap. In this case, foreign direct investment (FDI) becomes more valuable in meeting countries’ investment needs. Nevertheless, companies may not behave very bravely in their investment actions in other countries. There is a considerable risk and uncertainty avoidance in the nature of investment because uncertainty and risk are accepted as harbingers of instability for a country. Since the main goal of companies is to make a profit, they may start thinking that they will not have the opportunity to make a profit in an unstable economy. Hence, the risk perception in the investment environment must be low for developing countries to become attractive for FDI inflows. Geopolitical risks, as well as economic, political, and strategic risks that countries will be exposed to, are important indicators considered in FDI inflows. Literature research shows that investors are aggressive in investing with a profit appetite and, with exceptions, are sensitive to geopolitical risks. In other words, FDI decreases in countries where geopolitical risks tend to increase. The present study tested the validity of this assumption in the literature for Türkiye. The impact of geopolitical risks on FDI was analyzed with the ARDL Boundary Test Approach for the period 1985-2020. FDI inflows were used as the dependent variable, and the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) Index, a measure of geopolitical risk, was used as the independent variable. Moreover, growth, globalization, and inflation are the other independent variables analyzed. The test results demonstrated the negative effect of the increase in the GPR index on FDI inflows. In terms of the results obtained, the study provides an important perspective on the prioritization of the geopolitical risk factor in the evaluation of foreign investment performance.

Keywords

ARDL Boundary Test Foreign Direct Investment Economic Growth Geopolitical Risk

References

  • Afşar, M., Doğan, E. and Doğan, B. Ö. (2021). Does higher geopolitical risk limits Turkish foreign direct investments?, Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 8(3), 1456-1475.
  • Akel, V. and Gazel, S. (2014). Döviz kurları ile BIST sanayi endeksi arasındaki eşbütünleşme ilişkisi: Bir ARDL sınır testi yaklaşımı [The cointegration linkages between exchange rates and BIST industrial index: An ARDL bound testing approach], Erciyes Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 44: 23-41.
  • Arslan, C. K. (2019). Jeopolitik riskin doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkisi [The effect of geoplolitical risk on foreign direct investments]. Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi (ASEAD), 6(6):435-441.
  • Asaad, Z. A., Marane, M. O., and Mustafa, H. M. (2020). The impact of Geopolitical Risks and the Human Development on Foreign Direct Investment Inflows in Iraq for the Period (2004-2018). Global Journal of Business and Economics, 9(1), 37-54.
  • Ayten, E. C. (2021). Doğrudan yabancı yatırımların belirleyicilerine ilişkin ekonometrik bir analiz: Türkiye örneği. Hacettepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayımlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi, Ankara.
  • Bussy, A. and Zheng, H. (2023). Responses of FDI to geopolitical risks: The role of governance, information, and technology. International Business Review, 102136, 1-15.
  • Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M. (2022). Measuring geopolitical risk. American Economic Review, 112(4), 1194-1225. https://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.20191823.
  • Ceyhan, T. and Gulcan, N. (2022). Jeopolitik risk ile doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar ve finansal gelişmişlik arasındaki ilişki: Kónya panel nedensellik analizi [The relationship between geoplolitical risk and foreign direct investments and financial development: Kónya panel causality analysis]. Business and Economics Research Journal, 13(4), 625-637.
  • Chanegriha, M., Stewart, C. and Tsoukis, C. (2017). Identifying the robust economic, geographical and political determinants of FDI: An extreme bounds analysis. Empirical Economics, 52, 759-776. Dalby, S. 2013. The Geopolitics of climate change. Political Geography, 37, 38–47. doi:10.1016/j.polgeo.2013.09.004.
  • Daştan, M., Karabulut, K. and Yalçınkaya, Ö. (2022). The nexus between uncertainty and foreign direct investment flows to G20 member countries. Ekonomski Pregled, 73(5), 717-738.
  • De Angelo, C. F., Eunni, R. V. and Fouto, N. M. M. D. (2010). Determinants of FDI in emerging markets: evidence from Brazil. International Journal of Commerce and Management. 20 (3), 203-216.
  • Dedeoğlu, D., Öğüt, K. and Pişkin, A. (2019). Yönetişim kalitesi, jeopolitik risk ve doğrudan yabancı yatırım ilişkisi: Gelişmekte olan ülkeler örneği [Governance quality, geopolitical risk and foreign direct investment: Evidence from developing countries]. Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar, 650 Aralık, 51-69.
  • Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 1057-1072.
  • Dissanayake, R., Mehrotra, V. and Wu, Y. (2018). Geopolitical risk, financial slack and capital investments. Financial Slack and Capital Investments (July 29, 2018). Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3222198 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3222198.
  • Economic Policy Uncertainty (2023). https://www.policyuncertainty.com/gpr.html. Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Fania, N., Yan, C., Kuyon, J. B. and Djeri, S. (2020). Geopolitical risks (GPRs) and foreign direct investments: A business risk approach. Global Journal of Management and Business Research, 20(B1), 1-8.
  • Feng, C., Han, L., Vigne, S. and Xu, Y. (2023). Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of international capital flows. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 82, 101693.
  • Giblin, B. (2013). Economics and geopolitics: A relationship worth (re) considering. Hérodote, 151(4), 3-11. http://dx.doi.org/10.3917/her.151.0003.
  • Jessop, B. and Sum, N. L. (2018). Geopolitics: Putting geopolitics in its place in cultural political economy. Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space, 50(2), 474-478. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/0308518X17731106.
  • Kim, Y. S., Park, K. J. and Kwon, O. B. (2019). Geopolitical risk and trading patterns of foreign and domestic investors: Evidence from Korea. Asia‐Pacific Journal of Financial Studies, 48(2), 269-298.
  • KOF Swiss Economic Institute (2023). https://kof.ethz.ch/en/forecasts-and-indicators/indicators/kof-globalisation-index.html, Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Li, J., Van Assche, A., Li, L. and Qian, G. (2022). Foreign direct investment along the Belt and Road: A political economy perspective. Journal of International Business Studies, 53(5), 902-919.
  • Le, A. T. and Tran, T. P. (2021). Does geopolitical risk matter for corporate investment? Evidence from emerging countries in Asia. Journal of Multinational Financial Management, 62, 100703. https://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.mulfin.2021.100703.
  • Lu, B. and Liu, W. (2022). Does comprehensive geopolitical risk deter FDI Outflows: Evidence from China. Defence and Peace Economics, 1-17. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10242694.2022.2160140.
  • Luo, D. Y. (2021). Make Money Move: Understanding the Nexus Between Geopolitical Risk and Foreign Direct Investment. Undergraduate Honours Thesis, The University of British Columbia.
  • Marangoz, C. (2022). Ekonomik, politik ve jeopolitik belirsizliklerin Türkiye’ye gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar üzerindeki etkileri: MS-VAR modelinden kanıtlar. Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli Üniversitesi, Yayımlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü.
  • Nguyen, T. T. T., Pham, B. T. and Sala, H. (2022). Being an emerging economy: To what extent do geopolitical risks hamper technology and FDI inflows?. Economic Analysis and Policy, 74, 728-746.
  • Overland, I. (2015). Future petroleum geopolitics: Consequences of climate policy and unconventional oil and gas. Handbook of Clean Energy Systems, Jun 4, 1–29 doi:10.1002/9781118991978.hces203.
  • Özşahin, Ş., Üçler, G. and Uysal, D. (2022). Jeopolitik risk ve yolsuzluğun doğrudan yabancı yatırımlar için önemi: Türkiye için ampirik bulgular [The importance of geopolitical risk and corruption for foreign direct investments: Empirical findings for Turkey]. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(2), 257-286.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships, Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289–326.
  • Phillips, P.C.B. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression, Biometrika, 75(2): 335–346.
  • Rauf, S., Mehmood, R., Rauf, A. and Mehmood, S. (2016). Integrated model to measure the impact of terrorism and political stability on FDI inflows: empirical study of Pakistan. International journal of Economics and Finance, 8(4), 1-7.
  • Suárez-de Vivero, J. L. and Mateos, J. C. R. (2017). Forecasting geopolitical risks: Oceans as source of instability. Marine Policy, 75, 19-28. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.marpol.2016.10.009.
  • Süslü, B. and Bekmez, S. (2010). Türkiye’de zaman tutarsızlığının ARDL yöntemi ile incelenmesi [An analysis of time inconsistency in Turkey with ARDL method], BDDK Bankacılık ve Finansal Piyasalar, 4(2): 85-110.
  • Thakkar, N. and Ayub, K. A. (2022). Geopolitical Risk and Globalization. The Journal of Applied Business and Economics, 24(3), 140-150.
  • Wang, X., Wu, Y. and Xu, W. (2019). Geopolitical Risk and investment. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming.
  • World Bank, World Development Indicators. (2023). https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators, Date Accessed: 25.02.2023.
  • Yu, M. and Wang, N. (2023). The influence of geopolitical risk on international direct investment and its countermeasures. Sustainability, 15, 2522. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/su15032522.
  • Zeng, K. and Li, X. (2019). Geopolitics, nationalism, and foreign direct investment: Perceptions of the China threat and American public attitudes toward Chinese FDI. The Chinese Journal of International Politics, 12(4), 495-518.
There are 39 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ali Altıner 0000-0001-7362-8198

Eda Bozkurt 0000-0001-7158-8049

Early Pub Date September 21, 2023
Publication Date September 30, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 12 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Altıner, A., & Bozkurt, E. (2023). Reflections of Geopolitical Risk on Foreign Direct Investments: The Case of Türkiye. İnsan Ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 12(3), 1292-1309. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.1271884
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