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Türkiye’de Savunma Harcamalarının İşsizlik Oranı Üzerine Etkisi

Year 2020, Volume: 15 Issue: 60, 941 - 952, 31.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.704853

Abstract

The impact of military spending on macroeconomic performance has been a long-debated issue. In this context, there are a vast number of studies focused on the impact of military spending on the economies and the direction of this impact. Most of these studies have examined the relationship between military spending and economic growth. Unemployment, however, is a macroeconomic indicator that cannot be separated from economic growth. Hence, this study aims to reveal the relationship between military spending and the unemployment rate of Turkey, which is a developing country. To this end, Bounds Testing approach based on the structural break Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Model (ARDL) has been performed to suggest the impact of the military spending on the unemployment rate, using the 1988-2017 period data of Turkey. The findings demonstrate that there is no statistically significant correlation between the military spending and unemployment rate in the short run; however, it is determined that the military spending decreases the unemployment rate in the long run.

References

  • Abell, J. D. 1992. “Defense Spending and Unemployment Rates: An Empirical Analysis Disaggregated by Race and Gender.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 51(1): 27-42.
  • Azam, M., Khan, F., Zaman, K. and Rasli, A.Md. 2016. “Military Expenditures and Unemployment Nexus for Selected South Asian Countries.” Social Indicators Research, 127(3): 1103–1017.
  • Baran, P. and Sweezy, P. 1966. "Monopoly Capital." New York, Monthly Review Press.
  • Barker, T., Dunne, P., and Smith, R. 1991. " Measuring the Peace Dividend in the United Kingdom. " Journal of Peace Research, 28(4): 345-358.
  • Chester, E. 1978. "Military Spending and Capitalist Stability.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2 (3): 293–98.
  • Dunne, P. and Smith, R. 1990. “Military Expenditure and Unemployment in the OECD.” Defence Economics, 1(1): 57-73.
  • Dunne, P. and Watson, D. 2000. “Military Expenditure and Employment in South Africa.” Defence and Peace Economics, 11(6): 587–96.
  • Dunne, J. P. and Smith, R. P. 2010. "Military Expenditure and Granger Causality: A Critical Review ." Defence and Peace Economics, 21(5-6): 427-441.
  • Hooker, M. and Knetter, M. 1994. “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending: Evidence from a Panel of States.” NBER Working Paper, No. 4889. Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
  • Hooker, M. and Knetter, M. 1997. “The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(3): 400-421.
  • Huang, Jr T. and Kao, A.- P. 2005. “Does Defence Spending Matter to Employment in Taiwan?.” Defence and Peace Economics, 16(2): 101–15.
  • Korkmaz, S. 2015. “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth and Unemployment.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1): 273–280.
  • Malizard, J. 2014. “Defense Spending and Unemployment in France.” Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6): 635–642.
  • Paul, S. 1996. “Defence Spending and Unemployment Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the OECD.” Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2): 44–54.
  • Payne, J. E. and Ross, K. L. 1992. “Defense Spending and the Macroeconomy.” Defence Economics, 3(2): 161-168.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289–326.
  • Qiong, L., and Junhua, H. 2015. "Military Expenditure and Unemployment in China." Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 498-504.
  • SIPRI 2019. “Fact Sheet” SIPRI web page. <https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-4/fs_1904_milex_2018.pdf> (Access Date:10.09.2019).
  • Sanso-Navarro, M.S., and Cabello, M.V. 2015. “The Causal Relationship between Military Spending and Unemployment in the EU 15.” Social Science Research Network, <http://ssrn.com/abstract=2550136> (Access Date:14.01.2020).
  • Smith, R. P. 1977. “Military Expenditure and Capitalism.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(1): 61-76.
  • Tang, J.-H., Lai, C.-C. and Lin, E. S. 2009. “Military Expenditure and Unemployment Rates: Granger Causality Tests Using Global Panel Data.” Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4): 253–67.
  • Üçler, G. 2017. "The Effect of Defense Spending on Unemployment in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis for the Period of 1980-2014." Journal of Yaşar University, 12(46): 161-170.
  • Yildirim, J. and Sezgin, S. 2003. “Military Expenditure and Employment in Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2): 129–139.
  • Wing, M. M. 1991. "Defence Spending and Employment in Indonesia." Defence and Peace Economics, 3(1): 83-92.
  • Zhong, M., Chang, T., Tang, D. P. and Wolde-Rufael, Y. 2015. “The Causal Nexus between Military Spending and Unemployment in the G7: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test.” Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6): 609–622.

Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey

Year 2020, Volume: 15 Issue: 60, 941 - 952, 31.10.2020
https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.704853

Abstract

The impact of military spending on macroeconomic performance has been a long-debated issue. In this context, there are a vast number of studies focused on the impact of military spending on the economies and the direction of this impact. Most of these studies have examined the relationship between military spending and economic growth. Unemployment, however, is a macroeconomic indicator that cannot be separated from economic growth. Hence, this study aims to reveal the relationship between military spending and the unemployment rate of Turkey, which is a developing country. To this end, Bounds Testing approach based on the structural break Autoregressive Distributed-Lag Model (ARDL) has been performed to suggest the impact of the military spending on the unemployment rate, using the 1988-2017 period data of Turkey. The findings demonstrate that there is no statistically significant correlation between the military spending and unemployment rate in the short run; however, it is determined that the military spending decreases the unemployment rate in the long run.

References

  • Abell, J. D. 1992. “Defense Spending and Unemployment Rates: An Empirical Analysis Disaggregated by Race and Gender.” American Journal of Economics and Sociology, 51(1): 27-42.
  • Azam, M., Khan, F., Zaman, K. and Rasli, A.Md. 2016. “Military Expenditures and Unemployment Nexus for Selected South Asian Countries.” Social Indicators Research, 127(3): 1103–1017.
  • Baran, P. and Sweezy, P. 1966. "Monopoly Capital." New York, Monthly Review Press.
  • Barker, T., Dunne, P., and Smith, R. 1991. " Measuring the Peace Dividend in the United Kingdom. " Journal of Peace Research, 28(4): 345-358.
  • Chester, E. 1978. "Military Spending and Capitalist Stability.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2 (3): 293–98.
  • Dunne, P. and Smith, R. 1990. “Military Expenditure and Unemployment in the OECD.” Defence Economics, 1(1): 57-73.
  • Dunne, P. and Watson, D. 2000. “Military Expenditure and Employment in South Africa.” Defence and Peace Economics, 11(6): 587–96.
  • Dunne, J. P. and Smith, R. P. 2010. "Military Expenditure and Granger Causality: A Critical Review ." Defence and Peace Economics, 21(5-6): 427-441.
  • Hooker, M. and Knetter, M. 1994. “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending: Evidence from a Panel of States.” NBER Working Paper, No. 4889. Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA.
  • Hooker, M. and Knetter, M. 1997. “The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending.” Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking, 29(3): 400-421.
  • Huang, Jr T. and Kao, A.- P. 2005. “Does Defence Spending Matter to Employment in Taiwan?.” Defence and Peace Economics, 16(2): 101–15.
  • Korkmaz, S. 2015. “The Effect of Military Spending on Economic Growth and Unemployment.” International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 5(1): 273–280.
  • Malizard, J. 2014. “Defense Spending and Unemployment in France.” Defence and Peace Economics, 25(6): 635–642.
  • Paul, S. 1996. “Defence Spending and Unemployment Rates: An Empirical Analysis for the OECD.” Journal of Economic Studies, 23(2): 44–54.
  • Payne, J. E. and Ross, K. L. 1992. “Defense Spending and the Macroeconomy.” Defence Economics, 3(2): 161-168.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. 2001. “Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships.” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3): 289–326.
  • Qiong, L., and Junhua, H. 2015. "Military Expenditure and Unemployment in China." Procedia Economics and Finance, 30, 498-504.
  • SIPRI 2019. “Fact Sheet” SIPRI web page. <https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2019-4/fs_1904_milex_2018.pdf> (Access Date:10.09.2019).
  • Sanso-Navarro, M.S., and Cabello, M.V. 2015. “The Causal Relationship between Military Spending and Unemployment in the EU 15.” Social Science Research Network, <http://ssrn.com/abstract=2550136> (Access Date:14.01.2020).
  • Smith, R. P. 1977. “Military Expenditure and Capitalism.” Cambridge Journal of Economics, 1(1): 61-76.
  • Tang, J.-H., Lai, C.-C. and Lin, E. S. 2009. “Military Expenditure and Unemployment Rates: Granger Causality Tests Using Global Panel Data.” Defence and Peace Economics, 20(4): 253–67.
  • Üçler, G. 2017. "The Effect of Defense Spending on Unemployment in Turkey: An Econometric Analysis for the Period of 1980-2014." Journal of Yaşar University, 12(46): 161-170.
  • Yildirim, J. and Sezgin, S. 2003. “Military Expenditure and Employment in Turkey.” Defence and Peace Economics, 14(2): 129–139.
  • Wing, M. M. 1991. "Defence Spending and Employment in Indonesia." Defence and Peace Economics, 3(1): 83-92.
  • Zhong, M., Chang, T., Tang, D. P. and Wolde-Rufael, Y. 2015. “The Causal Nexus between Military Spending and Unemployment in the G7: A Bootstrap Panel Causality Test.” Defence and Peace Economics, 26(6): 609–622.
There are 25 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Şerif Canbay 0000-0001-6141-7510

Derya Mercan 0000-0003-3011-4423

Publication Date October 31, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 15 Issue: 60

Cite

APA Canbay, Ş., & Mercan, D. (2020). Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 15(60), 941-952. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.704853
AMA Canbay Ş, Mercan D. Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. October 2020;15(60):941-952. doi:10.19168/jyasar.704853
Chicago Canbay, Şerif, and Derya Mercan. “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15, no. 60 (October 2020): 941-52. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.704853.
EndNote Canbay Ş, Mercan D (October 1, 2020) Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15 60 941–952.
IEEE Ş. Canbay and D. Mercan, “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 60, pp. 941–952, 2020, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.704853.
ISNAD Canbay, Şerif - Mercan, Derya. “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 15/60 (October 2020), 941-952. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.704853.
JAMA Canbay Ş, Mercan D. Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2020;15:941–952.
MLA Canbay, Şerif and Derya Mercan. “Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, vol. 15, no. 60, 2020, pp. 941-52, doi:10.19168/jyasar.704853.
Vancouver Canbay Ş, Mercan D. Unemployment Effects of Military Spending in Turkey. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2020;15(60):941-52.