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MERKEZİ VE DOĞU AVRUPA GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİ İÇİN AB EKONOMİLERİYLE GELİR YAKINSAMASI ANALİZİ

Year 2023, Issue: 3, 72 - 81, 25.03.2023

Abstract

Gelişmekte olan ülkelerin en önemli ekonomik hedeflerinin başında gelişmiş ülkelerin refah seviyesine ulaşmak gelmektedir. Temeli Solow büyüme modeline dayanan yakınsama hipotezi, düşük gelirli ülkelerin yüksek gelirli ülkelere göre daha hızlı ekonomik büyüme performansı gerçekleştireceğini varsaymaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı Merkezi ve Doğu Avrupa geçiş ekonomilerinin gelir düzeyinin Avrupa Birliği ortalamasına yakınsamasını analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla 1995-2021 dönemi için kişi başına düşen GSYH verisi kullanılarak panel CADF birim kök testi ile Lee ve Strazicicih (2003; 2004) yapısal kırılmalı birim kök testleri uygulanmıştır. CADF birim kök testi bulguları panel geneli için serinin durağan olduğunu dolayısıyla yakınsama hipotezinin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir. Ülke bazındaki sonuçlarına göre ise; Bulgaristan, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Letonya, Litvanya, Makedonya, Polonya, Sırbistan ve Slovenya serilerinin seviye düzeyinde durağan olduğunu dolayısıyla yakınsama hipotezin geçerli olduğu diğer ülkeler için ise geçerli olmadığı görülmektedir. Ülke bazında hipotezin geçerliliği yapısal kırılmaya izin veren Lee ve Strazicicih (2003; 2004) birim kök testi ile test edilmiştir. Test bulguları Bulgaristan, Çek Cumhuriyeti, Hırvatistan, Estonya, Macaristan, Letonya, Polonya, Romanya, Sırbistan ve Slovenya verileri için hipotezin geçerli olduğunu göstermektedir.

References

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  • Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of applied econometrics, 10(2), 97-108.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Carlino, G. A., & Mills, L. O. (1993). Are US regional incomes converging?: A time series analysis. Journal of monetary economics, 32(2), 335-346.
  • De Long, J. B. (1988). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: comment. The American Economic Review, 78(5), 1138-1154.
  • Dogan, N., & Saracoglu, B. (2007). Income Convergence of European Union and Candidate Countries: Are they All the Same. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 12, 160-164.
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  • Kaitila, V. (2004). Convergence of real GDP per capita in the EU15. How do the Accession Countries fit in? (No. 025). European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  • Kaitila, V. (2005). Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area. CEPS ENEPRI Working Papers No. 31, 1 February 2005.
  • Kutan, A. M., & Yigit, T. M. (2004). Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32(1), 23-36.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of economics and statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break (Department of Economics Appalachian State University Working Paper No. 04-17).
  • Matkowski, Z., Prochniak, M., & Rapacki, R. (2016). Real income convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, present, and prospects.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels Cambridge Working Papers in Economics Paper No 0435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Polanec, S. (2004). Convergence at Last?: Evidence from Transition Countries. Eastern European Economics, 42(4), 55-80.
  • Próchniak, M., & Witkowski, B. (2014). Alternative weighting schemes in spatial analysis of GDP per capita convergence. Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych, 15(2), 198-208.
  • Rapacki, R., & Próchniak, M. (2009). Real beta and sigma convergence in 27 transition countries, 1990–2005. Post-Communist Economies, 21(3), 307-326.
  • Reza, R., & Zahra, K. T. (2008). Evaluation of the income convergence hypothesis in ten new members of the European Union. A panel unit root approach. Panoeconomicus, 55(2), 157-166.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X. X., & Barro, R. J. (1995). Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth (No. 735). Center discussion paper.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X.X. (1996). The classical approach to convergence analysis. The economic journal, 106(437), 1019-1036.
  • Sarajevs, V. (2001). Convergence of European transition economies and the EU: What do the data show (No. 13/2001). BOFIT Discussion Papers.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Vojinović, B., Acharya, S., & Próchniak, M. (2009). Convergence analysis among the ten European transition economies. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 123-141.
  • Yılancı, V., & Gökçe, E. C. (2020). OECD Ülkelerinde Yakınsama Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Kalıntılarla Genişletilmiş Panel Fourier SURADF Birim Kök Testi. Sosyoekonomi, 28(44), 395-407.
  • Yılmaz, M., & Kesbiç, C.Y. (2020). Kırılgan beşli ekonomileri için yakınsama hipotezinin geçerliliği. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(75), 1275-1293.
Year 2023, Issue: 3, 72 - 81, 25.03.2023

Abstract

References

  • Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
  • Barro, R. J., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (1992). Convergence. Journal of political Economy, 100(2), 223-251.
  • Barro, R. J., Sala-i-Martin, X., Blanchard, O. J., & Hall, R. E. (1991). Convergence across states and regions. Brookings papers on economic activity, 107-182.
  • Baumol, W. J. (1986). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: what the long-run data show. The american economic review, 1072-1085.
  • Bernard, A. B., & Durlauf, S. N. (1995). Convergence in international output. Journal of applied econometrics, 10(2), 97-108.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Carlino, G. A., & Mills, L. O. (1993). Are US regional incomes converging?: A time series analysis. Journal of monetary economics, 32(2), 335-346.
  • De Long, J. B. (1988). Productivity growth, convergence, and welfare: comment. The American Economic Review, 78(5), 1138-1154.
  • Dogan, N., & Saracoglu, B. (2007). Income Convergence of European Union and Candidate Countries: Are they All the Same. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 12, 160-164.
  • Dowrick, S., & Nguyen, D. T. (1989). OECD comparative economic growth 1950-85: catch-up and convergence. The american economic Review, 1010-1030.
  • Estrin, S., Urga, G., & Lazarova, S. (2001). Testing for ongoing convergence in transition economies, 1970 to 1998. Journal of Comparative Economics, 29(4), 677-691.
  • Evans, P. (1998). Using panel data to evaluate growth theories. International Economic Review, 295-306. Forgó, B., & Jevcak, A. (2015). Economic convergence of central and eastern European EU member states over the last decade (2004-2014) (No. 001). Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Habibullah, M. S., Dayang-Affizzah, A. M., & Puah, C. H. (2012). Regional income disparities in Malaysia: A stochastic convergence analysis. Geografia, 8(5).
  • Kaitila, V. (2004). Convergence of real GDP per capita in the EU15. How do the Accession Countries fit in? (No. 025). European Network of Economic Policy Research Institutes.
  • Kaitila, V. (2005). Integration and Conditional Convergence in the Enlarged EU Area. CEPS ENEPRI Working Papers No. 31, 1 February 2005.
  • Kutan, A. M., & Yigit, T. M. (2004). Nominal and real stochastic convergence of transition economies. Journal of Comparative Economics, 32(1), 23-36.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum Lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of economics and statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2004). Minimum LM unit root test with one structural break (Department of Economics Appalachian State University Working Paper No. 04-17).
  • Matkowski, Z., Prochniak, M., & Rapacki, R. (2016). Real income convergence between Central Eastern and Western Europe: Past, present, and prospects.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels Cambridge Working Papers in Economics Paper No 0435.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A simple panel unit root test in the presence of cross‐section dependence. Journal of applied econometrics, 22(2), 265-312.
  • Polanec, S. (2004). Convergence at Last?: Evidence from Transition Countries. Eastern European Economics, 42(4), 55-80.
  • Próchniak, M., & Witkowski, B. (2014). Alternative weighting schemes in spatial analysis of GDP per capita convergence. Metody Ilościowe w Badaniach Ekonomicznych, 15(2), 198-208.
  • Rapacki, R., & Próchniak, M. (2009). Real beta and sigma convergence in 27 transition countries, 1990–2005. Post-Communist Economies, 21(3), 307-326.
  • Reza, R., & Zahra, K. T. (2008). Evaluation of the income convergence hypothesis in ten new members of the European Union. A panel unit root approach. Panoeconomicus, 55(2), 157-166.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X. X., & Barro, R. J. (1995). Technological diffusion, convergence, and growth (No. 735). Center discussion paper.
  • Sala-i-Martin, X.X. (1996). The classical approach to convergence analysis. The economic journal, 106(437), 1019-1036.
  • Sarajevs, V. (2001). Convergence of European transition economies and the EU: What do the data show (No. 13/2001). BOFIT Discussion Papers.
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Vojinović, B., Acharya, S., & Próchniak, M. (2009). Convergence analysis among the ten European transition economies. Hitotsubashi Journal of Economics, 123-141.
  • Yılancı, V., & Gökçe, E. C. (2020). OECD Ülkelerinde Yakınsama Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Kalıntılarla Genişletilmiş Panel Fourier SURADF Birim Kök Testi. Sosyoekonomi, 28(44), 395-407.
  • Yılmaz, M., & Kesbiç, C.Y. (2020). Kırılgan beşli ekonomileri için yakınsama hipotezinin geçerliliği. Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19(75), 1275-1293.
There are 32 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Ömer Doru 0000-0001-8119-4908

Publication Date March 25, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 3

Cite

APA Doru, Ö. (2023). MERKEZİ VE DOĞU AVRUPA GEÇİŞ EKONOMİLERİ İÇİN AB EKONOMİLERİYLE GELİR YAKINSAMASI ANALİZİ. Kapanaltı Dergisi(3), 72-81.