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Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracatın Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: 38, 131 - 147, 25.06.2020

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, 99 gelişmekte olan ülkede 2007-2018 dönemi için yıllık bazda ihracatın büyümeye etkisi panel veri analizi ile araştırılmıştır. Büyümeyi temsilen 2010 fiyatlarıyla dolar bazında GSYİH (GDP1), benzer şekilde büyümeyi temsilen ikinci büyüme değişkeni olarak 2010 fiyatlarıyla dolar bazında kişi başına GSYİH (GDP2) kullanılmıştır. Ayrıca yatırımı temsilen 2010 fiyatlarıyla dolar bazında Gayri Safi Sabit Sermaye Oluşumu (GFC) ve ihracatı temsilen de 2010 fiyatlarıyla dolar bazında mal ve hizmet ihracatının toplam değeri (EXP) kullanılmıştır. Çalışmada dört farklı model kurulmuştur. Birinci ve ikinci modelde GDP 1 değişkeni; ikinci ve üçüncü modelde ise GDP2 değişkeni bağımlı değişkenlerdir. Kurulan dört modelden de elde edilen bulgularda ihracatın, büyümeyi pozitif yönlü olarak etkilediği saptanmıştır.

References

  • Allaro, Hailegiorgis Biramo (2012). The Effect of Export-Led Growth Strategy on the Ethiopian Economy. American Journal of Economics, 2(3), 50-56.
  • Alvarado, R., Ochoa-Jimenez, D. ve Garcia-Tinisaray, D. (2018). Effect of Exports and Domestic Demand on Economic Growth in Latin America: An Analysis Using the Bulmer-Thomas Approach with Panel Data. Investigacion Operacional, 2, 255-264.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008). Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?. Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Economidou, C. ve Goswami, G. G. (2005). Export-led growth hypothesis revisited: a panel cointegration approach. Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 3, 40-55.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), 123-150.
  • Bharavaga, A., Franzni, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial Correlation and Fixed Effect Models. The Review of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Choi, In (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
  • Driscoll J. C. ve Kray, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 549-560.
  • Dwi, Kartikasari (2017). The Effect of Export, Import and Investment to Economic Growth of Riau Islands Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 663–667.
  • Eicher, T. S. ve Kuenzel, D. J. (2016). The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take-off. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d’Economique, 49(1), 264.
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Dconomics, 12(12), 59-73.
  • Frees, Edward W. (1995). Assessing Cross-Sectional Correlations in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 69, 393-414.
  • Frees, E. W. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
  • Friedman, M. (1937). The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Varience. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32, 675-701.
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, Nj: Prentice-Hall.
  • Grossman, G.M. ve Helpman, E. (1995). Technology and Trade. Grossman et al. (eds.) Handbook of International Economics, 1. Basım, Elsevier: ABD.
  • Habanabakize, T. (2019). The Effect of Economic Growth And Exchange Rate On Imports And Exports: The South African Post-2008 Financial Crisis Case. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 12(1), 223–238.
  • Haddad, M., ve Pancaro, C. (2010). Can real exchange rate undervaluation boost exports and growth in developing countries? Yes, but not for long. WordBank, Economic Premise, No:20.
  • Hausman J. A. (1978). Specification Test in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hesse, H. (2009). Export Diversification And Economic Growth. Breaking into New Markets: Emerging Lessons for Export Diversification, 55-80.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1), 73-94.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. ve Chu, C.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finitesample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Maddala, G. S. ve Wu, S. (1999). Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Olayungbo, D. (2019). Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse. Resources Policy, 64, 1-10.
  • Oxley, L. (1993). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal: 1865–1985. Economics Letters, 43(2), 163-166.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No: 0435.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-425.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(1), 51-72.
  • Rashid, F., Ullah, S. ve Zaman, B. (2012). Effects of Exports Instability on Economic Growth in SAARC Region Countries. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 6(1), 97–120.
  • Sae, R. K. ve Jai S. M. (2013). The Effect of Export Composition on Economic Growth: The Case of Korea. The Journal of Developing Areas, 47(1), 171-179.
  • Sami, S. ve Ridha, N. (2018). Re-Examining the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect?. Economic & Social Review, 49(4), 437-454.
  • Saraç, B. T. (2013). İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 181-194.
  • Shene, M. K. A. ve Hazhar, K. A. (2019). An Analysis of Exports and Imports and Their Effect on the Economic Growth in Iraq. UKH Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2), 68–76.
  • Szkorupová, Z. (2014). A causal relationship between foreign direct investment, economic growth and export for Slovakia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15(4), 123-128.
  • Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar, C. (2011). Türkiye’de Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Nedensellik Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1), 115-140.
  • Tarı, R. (2015). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları: Kocaeli.
  • Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları: İstanbul.
  • Titus, I. Z., Shida R. H. ve Riza R. (2020). Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth. Energies, 13(6), 1494.
  • Zhu, A. ve Kotz, D. M. (2011). The Dependence of China’s Economic Growth on Exports and Investment. Review of Radical Political Economics, 43(1), 9–32.

The Effect of Exports on Growth in Developing Countries: Panel Data Analysis

Year 2020, Volume: 22 Issue: 38, 131 - 147, 25.06.2020

Abstract

In this study, the effect of exports on growth on an annual basis for the period 2007-2018 in 99 developing countries was investigated by panel data analysis. GDP per dollar (GDP1) in 2010 prices representing growth, and GDP per Capita (GDP2) on dollar basis 2010 prices were used as the second growth variable representing growth. In addition, the Gross Value of Capital (GFC) on a dollar basis in 2010 prices representing the investment, and the total value of exports of goods and services (EXP) on a dollar basis in 2010 prices are used to represent exports. Four different models were established in the study. In the first and second models, GDP 1 variable; in the second and third models, GDP2 variable is dependent variables. In the findings obtained from the four models established, it was determined that exports affect growth positively.

References

  • Allaro, Hailegiorgis Biramo (2012). The Effect of Export-Led Growth Strategy on the Ethiopian Economy. American Journal of Economics, 2(3), 50-56.
  • Alvarado, R., Ochoa-Jimenez, D. ve Garcia-Tinisaray, D. (2018). Effect of Exports and Domestic Demand on Economic Growth in Latin America: An Analysis Using the Bulmer-Thomas Approach with Panel Data. Investigacion Operacional, 2, 255-264.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2007). Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies. Economics letters, 94(3), 389-395.
  • Awokuse, T. O. (2008). Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?. Applied Economics, 40(2), 161-173.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Economidou, C. ve Goswami, G. G. (2005). Export-led growth hypothesis revisited: a panel cointegration approach. Scientific Journal of Administrative Development, 3, 40-55.
  • Baltagi, B. H. & Wu, P. X. (1999). Unequally Spaced Panel Data Regression Models with Spatial Error Correlation. Journal of Econometrics, 117(1), 123-150.
  • Bharavaga, A., Franzni, L. ve Narendranathan, W. (1982). Serial Correlation and Fixed Effect Models. The Review of Economic Studies, 49, 533-549.
  • Choi, In (2001). Unit Root Tests for Panel Data. Journal of International Money and Finance, 20, 249-272.
  • Driscoll J. C. ve Kray, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics, 80, 549-560.
  • Dwi, Kartikasari (2017). The Effect of Export, Import and Investment to Economic Growth of Riau Islands Indonesia. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(4), 663–667.
  • Eicher, T. S. ve Kuenzel, D. J. (2016). The elusive effects of trade on growth: Export diversity and economic take-off. The Canadian Journal of Economics / Revue Canadienne d’Economique, 49(1), 264.
  • Feder, G. (1983). On exports and economic growth. Journal of Development Dconomics, 12(12), 59-73.
  • Frees, Edward W. (1995). Assessing Cross-Sectional Correlations in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 69, 393-414.
  • Frees, E. W. (2004). Longitudinal and Panel Data: Analysis and Applications in the Social Sciences, Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.
  • Friedman, M. (1937). The Use of Ranks to Avoid the Assumption of Normality Implicit in the Analysis of Varience. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 32, 675-701.
  • Greene, W. H. (2003). Econometric Analysis. Upper Saddle River, Nj: Prentice-Hall.
  • Grossman, G.M. ve Helpman, E. (1995). Technology and Trade. Grossman et al. (eds.) Handbook of International Economics, 1. Basım, Elsevier: ABD.
  • Habanabakize, T. (2019). The Effect of Economic Growth And Exchange Rate On Imports And Exports: The South African Post-2008 Financial Crisis Case. International Journal of Economics and Finance Studies, 12(1), 223–238.
  • Haddad, M., ve Pancaro, C. (2010). Can real exchange rate undervaluation boost exports and growth in developing countries? Yes, but not for long. WordBank, Economic Premise, No:20.
  • Hausman J. A. (1978). Specification Test in Econometrics. Econometrica, 46(6), 1251-1271.
  • Hesse, H. (2009). Export Diversification And Economic Growth. Breaking into New Markets: Emerging Lessons for Export Diversification, 55-80.
  • Konya, L. (2004). Export-Led Growth, Growth-Driven Export, Both or None? Granger Causality Analysis on OECD Countries. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 4(1), 73-94.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. ve Chu, C.J. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finitesample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Maddala, G. S. ve Wu, S. (1999). Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 61, 631-652.
  • Olayungbo, D. (2019). Effects of oil export revenue on economic growth in Nigeria: A time varying analysis of resource curse. Resources Policy, 64, 1-10.
  • Oxley, L. (1993). Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal: 1865–1985. Economics Letters, 43(2), 163-166.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics, Cambridge Working Papers in Economics No: 0435.
  • Ram, R. (1985). Exports and Economic Growth: Some Additional Evidence. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 33(2), 415-425.
  • Ram, R. (1987). Exports and economic growth in developing countries: evidence from time-series and cross-section data. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 36(1), 51-72.
  • Rashid, F., Ullah, S. ve Zaman, B. (2012). Effects of Exports Instability on Economic Growth in SAARC Region Countries. Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 6(1), 97–120.
  • Sae, R. K. ve Jai S. M. (2013). The Effect of Export Composition on Economic Growth: The Case of Korea. The Journal of Developing Areas, 47(1), 171-179.
  • Sami, S. ve Ridha, N. (2018). Re-Examining the Relationship Between Export Upgrading and Economic Growth: Is there a Threshold Effect?. Economic & Social Review, 49(4), 437-454.
  • Saraç, B. T. (2013). İhracat ve İthalatın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği. Ege Akademik Bakış, 13(2), 181-194.
  • Shene, M. K. A. ve Hazhar, K. A. (2019). An Analysis of Exports and Imports and Their Effect on the Economic Growth in Iraq. UKH Journal of Social Sciences, 3(2), 68–76.
  • Szkorupová, Z. (2014). A causal relationship between foreign direct investment, economic growth and export for Slovakia. Procedia Economics and Finance, 15(4), 123-128.
  • Şimşek, M. ve Kadılar, C. (2011). Türkiye’de Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Nedensellik Analizi. Cumhuriyet Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 11(1), 115-140.
  • Tarı, R. (2015). Ekonometri. Umuttepe Yayınları: Kocaeli.
  • Tatoğlu, F. (2018). Panel Veri Ekonometrisi: Stata Uygulamalı. Beta Yayınları: İstanbul.
  • Titus, I. Z., Shida R. H. ve Riza R. (2020). Effects of Agricultural, Manufacturing, and Mineral Exports on Angola’s Economic Growth. Energies, 13(6), 1494.
  • Zhu, A. ve Kotz, D. M. (2011). The Dependence of China’s Economic Growth on Exports and Investment. Review of Radical Political Economics, 43(1), 9–32.
There are 40 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Yüksel Okşak 0000-0001-8794-4597

Tufan Sarıtaş

Publication Date June 25, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 22 Issue: 38

Cite

APA Okşak, Y., & Sarıtaş, T. (2020). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde İhracatın Büyümeye Etkisi: Panel Veri Analizi. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 22(38), 131-147.

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