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Kuzey Avrupa Güvenliğinde Süreklilik ve Değişim: Finlandiya ve İsveç'in NATO Üyelikleri

Year 2024, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 129 - 141, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1431218

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Finlandiya ve İsveç’in NATO üyelik süreçleri sonrasında Kuzey Avrupa Güvenliğindeki süreklilik ve değişimi analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Bu amaç doğrultusunda, öncelikle devamlılıkları tespit etmek için bölge ülkelerinin tarihi incelenmiştir. Rusya’nın 2008 yılından beri komşularının egemenliklerine saygı göstermemesi ve son olarak da Ukrayna’yı işgali, Finlandiya ve İsveç’i uzun süreli tarafsızlık konumlarını terk etmeye zorladı ve ‘Finlandiyalılaşma’ kavramının da geçersiz kılınmasına sebep oldu. Bu çalışma, ikincil olarak, bu radikal değişimin Kuzey Avrupa güvenlik anlayışı üzerindeki etkisine ve NATO’nun rolüne odaklanmaktadır. Araştırmanın bulguları, Baltık ve Arktika bölgelerinde Rusya haricindeki bölge ülkelerinin NATO’nun genişlemesi çerçevesinde bir araya gelebilmesinin Rusya’ya karşı koyabilmeleri açısından hayati olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Rusya, ‘hibrit savaş’ taktikleri uygulayan güvenilemez bir bölgesel güç olarak Şubat 2022’den itibaren Ukrayna’da zor durumdadır. Rusya’nın sonraki adımlarının diğer bölge ülkelerinin egemenliklerini ihlal etmeyeceğine kimse garanti veremeyeceği için NATO, Ukrayna savaşından gerekli dersleri çıkarmalı, Rusya’nın bölgedeki konvansiyonel üstünlüğüne ve kullandığı asimetrik araçlara karşı hazırlıklarını tamamlamalıdır.

Ethical Statement

Çalışma etik beyan gerektirmemektedir.

References

  • Atatorun, M. (2023). Türkiye-NATO İlişkilerinin Ahlaki Zeminini Kurmak (Founding The Ethical Basis of Türkiye-NATO relations), Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(85). https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1195846
  • Åtland, K. (2016). North European security after the Ukraine conflict†. Defense and Security Analysis, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2016.1160484
  • Bergquist, M., Heisbourg, F., Nyberg, R., & Tiilikainen, T. (2016). The Effects of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership: An Assessment. Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland.
  • Boldyreva, S., & Boldyrev, R. (2018). Political Discussions on Admission of Neutral Countries of the Arctic Region to NATO in the 1990s – 2000s: Inclusion or a Limited Neutrality? Vestnik Volgogradskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Serija 4. Istorija. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye Otnoshenija, (6), 145–153. https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2018.6.11
  • Clark, M. (2020). Russian Hybrid Warfare. Washington. Retrieved from https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Hybrid%20Warfare%20ISW%20Report%202020.pdf
  • Conley, H. A., Scheffer, A. de H., & Weber, G. (2023). Alliances in a Shifting Global Order: Rethinking Transatlantic Engagement with Global Swing States. GMF.
  • Gunter, M. (2022). Some Implications of Sweden and Finland Joining NATO. The Commentaries, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.33182/tc.v2i1.2710
  • Kak Rossiya otvetit na vstupleniye Finlyandii v NATO. (2023, April 4). RIA Novosti. Retrieved from https://crimea.ria.ru/20230404/rossiya-primet-mery-dlya-kupirovaniya-ugroz-posle-vkhozhdeniya-finlyandii-v-nato-1127973751.html
  • Kemp, H. (2020). Strategic Security in Northern Europe: The Implications of Russian Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies in Developing Complex Threat Environments. Journal of Strategic Security, 14(1), 78–91. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.1.1871
  • NORDEFCO. (2023). Nordic Defence Cooperation. Retrieved August 1, 2023, from https://www.nordefco.org/the-basics-about-nordefco
  • O Strategii natsional’noy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii. , Pub. L. No. 400, Ofitsial’noye Opublikovaniye Pravovykh Aktov (2021). Russia: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001?index=1#print.
  • Pesu, M., & Iso-Markku, T. (2022, December 15). Finland as a NATO ally: First insights into Finnish alliance policy. Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
  • Revill, J. (2022, May 16). Analysis: Neutral Switzerland leans closer to NATO in response to Russia. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/
  • Saxi, H. L. (2019). The rise, fall and resurgence of Nordic defence cooperation. International Affairs, Vol. 95. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz049
  • Soldatov, A., & Borogan, I. (2023). Putin’s Real Security Crisis: The Most Important Lesson of the Wagner Rebellion Is the FSB’s Failure. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-security-crisis-wagner-rebellion
  • Suchoples, J. (2023). In the Shadow of the Eastern Neighbour. Finland in the Security Policy of Russia and the Soviet Union from Peter the Great to Contemporary Times. Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs, 26(4). https://doi.org/10.33067/se.4.2022.1
  • The NATO. (2023, October 11). 10 NATO Allies take further step to boost European air and missile defence capabilities. Retrieved February 3, 2024, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_219119.htm
  • The NATO. (2024, January 26). NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024: Unprecedented Military Exercise Signals Alliance Unity and Preparedness. Retrieved February 3, 2024, from https://www.act.nato.int/article/steadfast-defender-2024-signals-alliance-unity-and-preparedness/
  • Treaty of Peace with Finland, 1947. (1948). The American Journal of International Law, 42(3), 203–223. https://doi.org/10.2307/2213959
  • Voronov, K. V. (2021a). Security modus operandi of the Northern Europe (more NATO, less EU, pressure on Russia). World Economy and International Relations, 65(1). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-82-89
  • Voronov, K. V. (2021b). The nordic countries and russia: An untouchable reserve of strength to maintain bilateral relations. Sovremennaya Evropa, 101(1). https://doi.org/10.15211/SOVEUROPE120213340
  • Wieslander, A., Adamson, E., & Lehto, J. (2023, January). Securing Northern Europe within NATO: Sweden and Finland as New Allies. Atlantic Council.
  • Zavada, Ya., & Palok, Ya. (2022). SWEDISH NEUTRALITY POLICY IN THE XXI CENTURY. National Technical University of Ukraine Journal. Political Science. Sociology. Law, (3(55)). https://doi.org/10.20535/2308-5053.2022.3(55).269546

Change and Continuity in North European Security: Finland and Sweden’s Membership in NATO

Year 2024, Volume: 12 Issue: 1, 129 - 141, 31.03.2024
https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1431218

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the change and continuity in Northern European Security after Finland and Sweden’s membership processes in NATO. With this purpose, firstly I examined the history of the countries in the region to detect possible continuities in their relations. Russia’s lack of respect for the sovereignty of its neighbors since 2008 and lastly the occupation of Ukraine forced Finland and Sweden to leave their long-lasting non-aligned status and caused to invalidate the concept of ‘Finlandization’. This study secondly focuses on this radical change’s effect on the security understanding of Northern Europe with a concentration on the role of NATO. The findings of this article put forward that recent NATO enlargement is vital for regional states to be able to counter Russia through uniting countries except Russia in the Baltic and Arctic. Russia is applying ‘hybrid war’ tactics as an unreliable regional power and it has been stuck in Ukraine since February 2022. NATO must learn from the Russia-Ukraine War and prepare against Russia’s conventional superiority over its neighboring states and the usage of asymmetrical means since no one may guarantee that Russia’s next steps will not violate the sovereignty of other regional states.

References

  • Atatorun, M. (2023). Türkiye-NATO İlişkilerinin Ahlaki Zeminini Kurmak (Founding The Ethical Basis of Türkiye-NATO relations), Elektronik Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 22(85). https://doi.org/10.17755/esosder.1195846
  • Åtland, K. (2016). North European security after the Ukraine conflict†. Defense and Security Analysis, 32(2). https://doi.org/10.1080/14751798.2016.1160484
  • Bergquist, M., Heisbourg, F., Nyberg, R., & Tiilikainen, T. (2016). The Effects of Finland’s Possible NATO Membership: An Assessment. Ministry for Foreign Affairs of Finland.
  • Boldyreva, S., & Boldyrev, R. (2018). Political Discussions on Admission of Neutral Countries of the Arctic Region to NATO in the 1990s – 2000s: Inclusion or a Limited Neutrality? Vestnik Volgogradskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta. Serija 4. Istorija. Regionovedenie. Mezhdunarodnye Otnoshenija, (6), 145–153. https://doi.org/10.15688/jvolsu4.2018.6.11
  • Clark, M. (2020). Russian Hybrid Warfare. Washington. Retrieved from https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/Russian%20Hybrid%20Warfare%20ISW%20Report%202020.pdf
  • Conley, H. A., Scheffer, A. de H., & Weber, G. (2023). Alliances in a Shifting Global Order: Rethinking Transatlantic Engagement with Global Swing States. GMF.
  • Gunter, M. (2022). Some Implications of Sweden and Finland Joining NATO. The Commentaries, 2(1). https://doi.org/10.33182/tc.v2i1.2710
  • Kak Rossiya otvetit na vstupleniye Finlyandii v NATO. (2023, April 4). RIA Novosti. Retrieved from https://crimea.ria.ru/20230404/rossiya-primet-mery-dlya-kupirovaniya-ugroz-posle-vkhozhdeniya-finlyandii-v-nato-1127973751.html
  • Kemp, H. (2020). Strategic Security in Northern Europe: The Implications of Russian Anti-Access/Area Denial Strategies in Developing Complex Threat Environments. Journal of Strategic Security, 14(1), 78–91. https://doi.org/10.5038/1944-0472.14.1.1871
  • NORDEFCO. (2023). Nordic Defence Cooperation. Retrieved August 1, 2023, from https://www.nordefco.org/the-basics-about-nordefco
  • O Strategii natsional’noy bezopasnosti Rossiyskoy Federatsii. , Pub. L. No. 400, Ofitsial’noye Opublikovaniye Pravovykh Aktov (2021). Russia: http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/Document/View/0001202107030001?index=1#print.
  • Pesu, M., & Iso-Markku, T. (2022, December 15). Finland as a NATO ally: First insights into Finnish alliance policy. Finnish Institute of International Affairs.
  • Revill, J. (2022, May 16). Analysis: Neutral Switzerland leans closer to NATO in response to Russia. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/neutral-switzerland-leans-closer-nato-response-russia-2022-05-15/
  • Saxi, H. L. (2019). The rise, fall and resurgence of Nordic defence cooperation. International Affairs, Vol. 95. https://doi.org/10.1093/ia/iiz049
  • Soldatov, A., & Borogan, I. (2023). Putin’s Real Security Crisis: The Most Important Lesson of the Wagner Rebellion Is the FSB’s Failure. Foreign Affairs. Retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian-federation/putin-security-crisis-wagner-rebellion
  • Suchoples, J. (2023). In the Shadow of the Eastern Neighbour. Finland in the Security Policy of Russia and the Soviet Union from Peter the Great to Contemporary Times. Studia Europejskie - Studies in European Affairs, 26(4). https://doi.org/10.33067/se.4.2022.1
  • The NATO. (2023, October 11). 10 NATO Allies take further step to boost European air and missile defence capabilities. Retrieved February 3, 2024, from https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_219119.htm
  • The NATO. (2024, January 26). NATO’s Steadfast Defender 2024: Unprecedented Military Exercise Signals Alliance Unity and Preparedness. Retrieved February 3, 2024, from https://www.act.nato.int/article/steadfast-defender-2024-signals-alliance-unity-and-preparedness/
  • Treaty of Peace with Finland, 1947. (1948). The American Journal of International Law, 42(3), 203–223. https://doi.org/10.2307/2213959
  • Voronov, K. V. (2021a). Security modus operandi of the Northern Europe (more NATO, less EU, pressure on Russia). World Economy and International Relations, 65(1). https://doi.org/10.20542/0131-2227-2021-65-1-82-89
  • Voronov, K. V. (2021b). The nordic countries and russia: An untouchable reserve of strength to maintain bilateral relations. Sovremennaya Evropa, 101(1). https://doi.org/10.15211/SOVEUROPE120213340
  • Wieslander, A., Adamson, E., & Lehto, J. (2023, January). Securing Northern Europe within NATO: Sweden and Finland as New Allies. Atlantic Council.
  • Zavada, Ya., & Palok, Ya. (2022). SWEDISH NEUTRALITY POLICY IN THE XXI CENTURY. National Technical University of Ukraine Journal. Political Science. Sociology. Law, (3(55)). https://doi.org/10.20535/2308-5053.2022.3(55).269546
There are 23 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects International Relations (Other)
Journal Section Research Articles
Authors

Adnan Seyaz 0000-0002-5422-1621

Publication Date March 31, 2024
Submission Date February 3, 2024
Acceptance Date March 11, 2024
Published in Issue Year 2024 Volume: 12 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Seyaz, A. (2024). Change and Continuity in North European Security: Finland and Sweden’s Membership in NATO. Marmara Üniversitesi Siyasal Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 129-141. https://doi.org/10.14782/marmarasbd.1431218