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Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Residential Property Price Index for New Dwellings in Türkiye

Year 2023, Issue: 120, 51 - 72, 16.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1258125

Abstract

This study investigates the relationship between the weighted average interest rates applied to housing loans, housing construction labor cost and housing unit prices, and the housing price index for new dwellings for the period 2015-2021. In the time series, a structural break was detected in February 2019. In the results of the regression analysis, differences were determined for the January 2015-January 2019 period and the February 2019-August 2021 period.

References

  • Abidoye, R. B., Chan, A. P., Abidoye, F. A., & Oshodi, O. S. (2019). Predicting property price index using artificial intelligence techniques. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(6), 1072–1092. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-11-2018-0095
  • Adana Karaağaç, G. & Altınırmak, S. (2018). Türkiye konut fiyat endeksi ve düzey bazlı konut fiyat endeksleri ile seçili değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi. Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi, 39(39), 222–240. https://doi.org/10.17498/kdeniz.415650.
  • Alkali, A. M., Sipan I., & Razali, N. M. (2018). An Overview of Macro-Economic Determinants of Real Estate Price in Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3.30), 484. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.30.18416
  • Brueggeman W. B. & Fisher J. D. (2011) Real Estate Finance and Investments 14th Edition, The McGraw-Hill/Irwin, P.77
  • Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers. 17: 334–355. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x.
  • CBRT (2022a) KFE-Metaveri, Web: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200/KFE-Metaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200-n-ivv0n Accessed at: 22-02-2023
  • CBRT (2022b) Bankalarca Açılan Kredilere Uygulanan Ağırlıklı Ortalama Faiz Oranları Web: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/17cf95e1-0d16-4583-8c84-eac20719123c/Metaveri_Kredi_Ag%C4%B1rl%C4%B1kl%C4%B1_T%C3%BCrkce.pdf?MOD=AJPERES Accessed at: 22-02-2023
  • Chau, K., Wong, S., Yiu, C., & Leung, H. (2005). Real Estate Price Indices in Hong Kong. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(3), 337–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2005.12090166
  • Eichholtz, P. M. A. (1996). A Long Run House Price Index: The Herengracht Index, 1628-1973. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.598
  • Eryüzlü, H. & Eki̇ci̇, S. (2020). Konut fiyat endeksi ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 97–105. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.650420
  • E-Views User Guide (2022a) Coefficient Diagnosis, https://eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content%2Ftesting-Coefficient_Diagnostics.html%23ww182212 Accessed at: 28-02-2023
  • E-Views Users Guide (2022b) Residual Diagnostics, https://eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content%2Fmultibreak Least_Squares_with_Breakpoints.html%23ww36959 Accessed at: 28-02-2023
  • Falzon, J. & Lanzon, D. (2013) Comparing alternative house price indices: evidence from asking prices in Malta. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 6(1), 98–135. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271311306048
  • Feldman, K. (2018) Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), https://www.isixsigma.com/dictionary/variance-inflation-factor-vif/
  • Godfrey, L. G. (1978) Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica. 46: 1293–1301. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913829)
  • Goodchild R. & D’Archy E. (2019) An International Overview of Real Estate Markets: Similarities and Differences. In: Mac Gregor BD, Schulz R and Green RK. Routledge Companion to Real Estate Investment New York: Routledge. P.12.
  • Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. C. (2009) Basic Econometrics. Fifth Edition. The McGraw-Hill.
  • He, H. M., Chen, Y., Xiao, J. Y., Chen, X. Q., & Lee, Z. J. (2021) Data Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Real Estate Price. Artificial Intelligence Evolution, 52–66. https://doi.org/10.37256/aie.222021966
  • Li, J., & Chiang, Y. (2012) What pushes up China's real estate price?. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 5(2), 161–176. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271211225913
  • Liberto D. (2022) What Is the House Price Index (HPI), Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/house-price-index-hpi.asp, Updated January 27, 2022, Accessed at: 26-02-2023
  • Ling D. C. & Archer W. R. (2018) Real Estate Principles A Value Approach Fifth Edition McGraw-Hill Education, P.10
  • McGibany, J. M., & Nourzad, F. (2004) Do lower mortgage rates mean higher housing prices? Applied Economics, 36(4), 305–313. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840410001674231
  • Turkish Statisical Institute, (Accessed at: 28-10-2022), web page: https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
  • Wang, Y., & Jiang, Y. (2016) An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Housing Price in Shanghai. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(2), 104–111. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8/2016.4.2/8.2.104.111

Türkiye'de Yeni Konut Fiyat Endeksini Etkileyen Faktörlerin Analizi

Year 2023, Issue: 120, 51 - 72, 16.10.2023
https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1258125

Abstract

Bu çalışma 2015-2021 döneminde konut kredilerinde uygulanan ağırlıklı ortalama faiz oranları, konut inşaatı işçilik maliyeti ve konut birim fiyatları ile yeni konutlar için konut fiyat endeksi arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Zaman serisinde 2019 Şubat ayında yapısal kırılma tespit edilmiştir. Regresyon analizi sonuçlarında Ocak 2015-Ocak 2019 dönemi ve Şubat 2019-Ağustos 2021 dönemleri için farklılıklar bulunmuştur.

References

  • Abidoye, R. B., Chan, A. P., Abidoye, F. A., & Oshodi, O. S. (2019). Predicting property price index using artificial intelligence techniques. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 12(6), 1072–1092. https://doi.org/10.1108/ijhma-11-2018-0095
  • Adana Karaağaç, G. & Altınırmak, S. (2018). Türkiye konut fiyat endeksi ve düzey bazlı konut fiyat endeksleri ile seçili değişkenler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi. Karadeniz Uluslararası Bilimsel Dergi, 39(39), 222–240. https://doi.org/10.17498/kdeniz.415650.
  • Alkali, A. M., Sipan I., & Razali, N. M. (2018). An Overview of Macro-Economic Determinants of Real Estate Price in Nigeria. International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 7(3.30), 484. https://doi.org/10.14419/ijet.v7i3.30.18416
  • Brueggeman W. B. & Fisher J. D. (2011) Real Estate Finance and Investments 14th Edition, The McGraw-Hill/Irwin, P.77
  • Breusch, T. S. (1978). Testing for Autocorrelation in Dynamic Linear Models. Australian Economic Papers. 17: 334–355. doi:10.1111/j.1467-8454.1978.tb00635.x.
  • CBRT (2022a) KFE-Metaveri, Web: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200/KFE-Metaveri.pdf?MOD=AJPERES&CACHEID=ROOTWORKSPACE-b4628fa9-11a7-4426-aee6-dae67fc56200-n-ivv0n Accessed at: 22-02-2023
  • CBRT (2022b) Bankalarca Açılan Kredilere Uygulanan Ağırlıklı Ortalama Faiz Oranları Web: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/17cf95e1-0d16-4583-8c84-eac20719123c/Metaveri_Kredi_Ag%C4%B1rl%C4%B1kl%C4%B1_T%C3%BCrkce.pdf?MOD=AJPERES Accessed at: 22-02-2023
  • Chau, K., Wong, S., Yiu, C., & Leung, H. (2005). Real Estate Price Indices in Hong Kong. Journal of Real Estate Literature, 13(3), 337–356. https://doi.org/10.1080/10835547.2005.12090166
  • Eichholtz, P. M. A. (1996). A Long Run House Price Index: The Herengracht Index, 1628-1973. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.598
  • Eryüzlü, H. & Eki̇ci̇, S. (2020). Konut fiyat endeksi ve reel döviz kuru ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği. İktisadi İdari ve Siyasal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 97–105. https://doi.org/10.25204/iktisad.650420
  • E-Views User Guide (2022a) Coefficient Diagnosis, https://eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content%2Ftesting-Coefficient_Diagnostics.html%23ww182212 Accessed at: 28-02-2023
  • E-Views Users Guide (2022b) Residual Diagnostics, https://eviews.com/help/helpintro.html#page/content%2Fmultibreak Least_Squares_with_Breakpoints.html%23ww36959 Accessed at: 28-02-2023
  • Falzon, J. & Lanzon, D. (2013) Comparing alternative house price indices: evidence from asking prices in Malta. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 6(1), 98–135. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271311306048
  • Feldman, K. (2018) Variance Inflation Factor (VIF), https://www.isixsigma.com/dictionary/variance-inflation-factor-vif/
  • Godfrey, L. G. (1978) Testing Against General Autoregressive and Moving Average Error Models when the Regressors Include Lagged Dependent Variables. Econometrica. 46: 1293–1301. (https://www.jstor.org/stable/1913829)
  • Goodchild R. & D’Archy E. (2019) An International Overview of Real Estate Markets: Similarities and Differences. In: Mac Gregor BD, Schulz R and Green RK. Routledge Companion to Real Estate Investment New York: Routledge. P.12.
  • Gujarati, D. N. & Porter, D. C. (2009) Basic Econometrics. Fifth Edition. The McGraw-Hill.
  • He, H. M., Chen, Y., Xiao, J. Y., Chen, X. Q., & Lee, Z. J. (2021) Data Analysis on the Influencing Factors of the Real Estate Price. Artificial Intelligence Evolution, 52–66. https://doi.org/10.37256/aie.222021966
  • Li, J., & Chiang, Y. (2012) What pushes up China's real estate price?. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 5(2), 161–176. https://doi.org/10.1108/17538271211225913
  • Liberto D. (2022) What Is the House Price Index (HPI), Investopedia, https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/house-price-index-hpi.asp, Updated January 27, 2022, Accessed at: 26-02-2023
  • Ling D. C. & Archer W. R. (2018) Real Estate Principles A Value Approach Fifth Edition McGraw-Hill Education, P.10
  • McGibany, J. M., & Nourzad, F. (2004) Do lower mortgage rates mean higher housing prices? Applied Economics, 36(4), 305–313. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840410001674231
  • Turkish Statisical Institute, (Accessed at: 28-10-2022), web page: https://www.tuik.gov.tr/
  • Wang, Y., & Jiang, Y. (2016) An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting the Housing Price in Shanghai. Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, 4(2), 104–111. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.8/2016.4.2/8.2.104.111
There are 24 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Finance
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Nurgün Komşuoğlu Yılmaz 0000-0002-9050-9796

Early Pub Date October 16, 2023
Publication Date October 16, 2023
Submission Date March 1, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Issue: 120

Cite

APA Komşuoğlu Yılmaz, N. (2023). Analysis of the Factors Affecting the Residential Property Price Index for New Dwellings in Türkiye. Maliye Ve Finans Yazıları(120), 51-72. https://doi.org/10.33203/mfy.1258125
  • The journal specializes in especially in all the fields of finance and banking.