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Demografik Değişimin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi

Year 2021, Volume: 30 Issue: 1, 45 - 64, 31.03.2021

Abstract

Dünya genelinde demografik geçiş yaşanmaktadır. Demografik geçiş sadece nüfus artışının yavaşlaması değil aynı zamanda genç ve yaşlıların nüfus bileşimi içerisindeki paylarının değişmesidir. Bu durum, nüfus içerisinde tüketimtasarruf harcamaları farklı olan grupların ağırlığının değişmesine ve makro değişkenlerden biri olan enflasyonun etkilenmesine neden olmaktadır. Nüfus bileşimindeki bu değişimin arz ve talep üzerindeki etkileşimi tüketim, tasarruf, yatırım vb. ekonomik değişkenleri etkilemektedir. Bundan dolayı makro değişkenlerden biri olan enflasyonun etkileneceği öngörülmektedir. Demografik değişimlerin enflasyonu nasıl etkileyebileceğine dair standart bir teorik açıklama bulunmamaktadır. Bu çalışma ile demografik değişimin enflasyonu nasıl etkilediği açıklanmaya çalışılmıştır. Bu bağlamda IMF tarafından belirlenen 23 Yükselen Ekonomi ülkesi için panel veri analizi yöntemi ile demografik değişkenler ve enflasyon arasındaki ilişki kanalları incelenmiştir. Yapılan analizler sonucunda, toplam nüfus içinde genç nüfusun oranı arttıkça enflasyonun azaldığı görülmektedir. Elde edilen bu sonuç istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır. Bununla birlikte toplam nüfus içinde yaşlı nüfusun artmasının da enflasyonu arttırdığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.

Supporting Institution

Yazarlar bu çalışma için finansal destek almadığını beyan etmiştir.

References

  • Ahking, F. W. & Miller, S. M. (1985). The Relationship Between Government Growth and Inflation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(4), 447-467.
  • Akay, Ç. E. (2015). Dinamik Panel Veri Modelleri, Editör: Selahattin Güriş, İçinde: Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri, Der Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Alavirad, A. (2003). The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of Islamic Republic of Iran. Opec Review, 27(4), 331-341.
  • Anderson, D., Botman, D., & Hunt, B. (2014). Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary? IMF Working Paper, WP/14/139.
  • Andrews, D., Oberoi, J., Wirjanto, T., & Zhou, C. (2018). Demography and Inflation: An International Study. North American Actuarial Journal, 22(2), 210-222.
  • Arellano, M. (2010). Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford Univ. Press., Oxford.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3. Edition), John Wiley Sons Ltd, West Sussex
  • Bayraktutan, Y. & Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transition and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bobeica, E., Nickel, C., Lis, E., & Sun, Y. (2017). Demographics and inflation (No. 2006). ECB Working Paper.
  • Broniatowska, P. (2017). Population ageing and inflation. Journal of Population Ageing, 1-15.
  • Bullard, J., Garriga, C., & Waller, C. J. (2012). Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 419-439.
  • Driscoll, J. C. & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics 80, 549–560.
  • Drukker, D. M. (2003). Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 3(2), 1-10.
  • Dünya Bankası, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (Erişim tarihi:16.09.2019).
  • Fedotenkov, I. (2018). Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation. Research in Economics, 72(3), 392-403.
  • Greene, W. (2000), Econometric Analysis, New York:Prentice-Hall.
  • Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”, Econometrica, 46, 1251–1271.
  • Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E. & Lim, G. C. (2012). Principles of Econometrics (4. Edition), West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W. ve Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data. Econometrica, 56, 1371 – 1395.
  • Jaffri, A. A., Farooq, F., & Munir, F. (2016). Impact of Demographic changes on inflation in pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M., & E. Takáts (2015), Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy? BIS Working Papers, No 485.
  • Juselius, M., & Takáts, E. (2016). The age-structure–inflation puzzle. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, (4).
  • Juselius, M., & Takáts, E. (2018), The Enduring Link Between Demography And Inflation BIS Working Papers No 722.
  • Kalafatcılar, M. K.. & Özmen U. (2018). Enflasyonun Yapısal Unsurlarına Bir Bakış: Demografi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, Enflasyon Raporu IV, Kutu 3.2.
  • Kalafatçılar, M. K., (2019). Demografik Gelişmeler ve Makroekonomik Etkileri, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği no:19/11.
  • Kandır, E. D. (2013). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Demografik Geçiş ve Yoksulluk İlişkisi, Çukurova Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Katagiri, M. (2012). Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects Through Changes in Demand Structure, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Discussion Paper, No. 2012-E-3.
  • Konishi, H. & Ueda, K. (2013). Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal perspective, IMES Discussion Paper Series 2013-E-13.
  • Liu Y. & N.Westelius (2016), The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan , IMF working paper,wp/16/237.
  • Mankiw, G. N. (2010), Makroekonomi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Mileva, E., (2007). Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata. New York: Fordham University.
  • Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data. Franco Modigliani, 1(1), 388-436.
  • Özbay, F. (2020). G20 ülkeleri için bilgi üretim fonksiyonunun panel veri ekonometrisi ile tahmini, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi, Isparta.
  • Paya, M. (2013). Makro İktisat, Türkmen Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Romer, D. (1993). Openness and inflation: theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 869-903.
  • Roodman, D. M. (2009). A note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 135–158.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011a). Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters. Opening Speech at 2011 Annual International Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, June 1.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011b). Globalization and Population Aging: Challenges Facing Japan. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December 22.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2012). Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences. Opening Remark at 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, May 30.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2013). Toward strengthening the competitiveness and growth potential of Japan’s economy. Speechat the Executive Member Meeting of the Policy Board of Nippon Keidanren, Tokyo,28 February.
  • Soto, M. (2009). System GMM estimation with a small sample (Working Paper No. 395).
  • Tarı, R. (2014). Ekonometri (10. Basım), Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tekin-Koru A. & Özmen E. (2003). Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation: The Turkish Evidence. Applied Economics, 35(5), 591-596.
  • Ünsal, E. (2005). Makro İktisat, İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım, Düzenlenmiş ve Yenilenmiş 3. Baskı: İstanbul.
  • Yoon, J.-W., Kim, J., & Lee, J. (2014). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy, IMF Working Paper, Office of the Executive Director, WP/14/210.

The Effect of Demographic Change on Inflation

Year 2021, Volume: 30 Issue: 1, 45 - 64, 31.03.2021

Abstract

Demographic changes have been occurring around the world. These changes are not only the slowdown in population growth but also the changing percentage of the youth and elders in the population composition. This stage changes the weight of groups with different consumption-saving expenditures within the population and affects inflation of the macro-variables. The interaction of this change in population composition on supply and demand affects economic variables such as consumption, savings, and investment. Therefore, macro-variables, such as inflation, may be affected. Moreover, how demographic changes can affect inflation has no standard theoretical explanation. This study explains how demographic change affects inflation. In this regard, the channels of the relationship between demographic variables and inflation were analyzed using a panel data analysis method for 23 emerging economy countries determined by the IMF. Result shows that the increase in the proportion of the young in the total population decreases inflation, which is statistically significant. Meanwhile, the increase in the elderly population in the total population also increases inflation.

References

  • Ahking, F. W. & Miller, S. M. (1985). The Relationship Between Government Growth and Inflation. Journal of Macroeconomics, 7(4), 447-467.
  • Akay, Ç. E. (2015). Dinamik Panel Veri Modelleri, Editör: Selahattin Güriş, İçinde: Stata ile Panel Veri Modelleri, Der Yayınevi, İstanbul.
  • Alavirad, A. (2003). The Effect of Inflation on Government Revenue and Expenditure: The Case of Islamic Republic of Iran. Opec Review, 27(4), 331-341.
  • Anderson, D., Botman, D., & Hunt, B. (2014). Is Japan’s Population Aging Deflationary? IMF Working Paper, WP/14/139.
  • Andrews, D., Oberoi, J., Wirjanto, T., & Zhou, C. (2018). Demography and Inflation: An International Study. North American Actuarial Journal, 22(2), 210-222.
  • Arellano, M. (2010). Panel Data Econometrics, Oxford Univ. Press., Oxford.
  • Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations, Review of Economic Studies, 58, 277-297.
  • Baltagi, B. H. (2005). Econometric Analysis of Panel Data (3. Edition), John Wiley Sons Ltd, West Sussex
  • Bayraktutan, Y. & Arslan, İ. (2003). Türkiye’de döviz kuru, ithalat ve enflasyon ilişkisi: ekonometrik analiz (1980-2000). Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi, İ.İ.B.F. Dergisi, 5(2), 89-104.
  • Bloom, D. E., & Williamson, J. G. (1998). Demographic Transition and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia. The World Bank Economic Review, 12(3), 419-455.
  • Bobeica, E., Nickel, C., Lis, E., & Sun, Y. (2017). Demographics and inflation (No. 2006). ECB Working Paper.
  • Broniatowska, P. (2017). Population ageing and inflation. Journal of Population Ageing, 1-15.
  • Bullard, J., Garriga, C., & Waller, C. J. (2012). Demographics, Redistribution, and Optimal Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 419-439.
  • Driscoll, J. C. & Kraay, A. C. (1998). Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation with Spatially Dependent Panel Data. Review of Economics and Statistics 80, 549–560.
  • Drukker, D. M. (2003). Testing for serial correlation in linear panel-data models. The Stata Journal, 3(2), 1-10.
  • Dünya Bankası, https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators (Erişim tarihi:16.09.2019).
  • Fedotenkov, I. (2018). Population ageing and inflation with endogenous money creation. Research in Economics, 72(3), 392-403.
  • Greene, W. (2000), Econometric Analysis, New York:Prentice-Hall.
  • Grimes, A. (1991). The Effects of Inflation on Growth: Some International Evidence, Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 127, 631-644.
  • Hausman, J. A. (1978). “Specification tests in econometrics”, Econometrica, 46, 1251–1271.
  • Hill, R. C., Griffiths, W. E. & Lim, G. C. (2012). Principles of Econometrics (4. Edition), West Sussex: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Holtz-Eakin, D., Newey, W. ve Rosen, H. S. (1988). Estimating Vector Autoregressions With Panel Data. Econometrica, 56, 1371 – 1395.
  • Jaffri, A. A., Farooq, F., & Munir, F. (2016). Impact of Demographic changes on inflation in pakistan. Pakistan Economic and Social Review, 54(1), 1-14.
  • Juselius, M., & E. Takáts (2015), Can Demography Affect Inflation and Monetary Policy? BIS Working Papers, No 485.
  • Juselius, M., & Takáts, E. (2016). The age-structure–inflation puzzle. Bank of Finland Research Discussion Paper, (4).
  • Juselius, M., & Takáts, E. (2018), The Enduring Link Between Demography And Inflation BIS Working Papers No 722.
  • Kalafatcılar, M. K.. & Özmen U. (2018). Enflasyonun Yapısal Unsurlarına Bir Bakış: Demografi, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası, Enflasyon Raporu IV, Kutu 3.2.
  • Kalafatçılar, M. K., (2019). Demografik Gelişmeler ve Makroekonomik Etkileri, TCMB Çalışma Tebliği no:19/11.
  • Kandır, E. D. (2013). Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Demografik Geçiş ve Yoksulluk İlişkisi, Çukurova Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Yayınlanmamış Yüksek Lisans Tezi.
  • Katagiri, M. (2012). Economic Consequences of Population Aging in Japan: Effects Through Changes in Demand Structure, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies Discussion Paper, No. 2012-E-3.
  • Konishi, H. & Ueda, K. (2013). Aging and Deflation from a Fiscal perspective, IMES Discussion Paper Series 2013-E-13.
  • Liu Y. & N.Westelius (2016), The Impact of Demographics on Productivity and Inflation in Japan , IMF working paper,wp/16/237.
  • Mankiw, G. N. (2010), Makroekonomi, Efil Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Mileva, E., (2007). Using Arellano-Bond Dynamic Panel GMM Estimators in Stata. New York: Fordham University.
  • Modigliani, F., & Brumberg, R. (1954). Utility analysis and the consumption function: An interpretation of cross-section data. Franco Modigliani, 1(1), 388-436.
  • Özbay, F. (2020). G20 ülkeleri için bilgi üretim fonksiyonunun panel veri ekonometrisi ile tahmini, Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Yayınlanmamış doktora tezi, Isparta.
  • Paya, M. (2013). Makro İktisat, Türkmen Kitabevi, İstanbul.
  • Romer, D. (1993). Openness and inflation: theory and evidence. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108, 869-903.
  • Roodman, D. M. (2009). A note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 71, 135–158.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011a). Bubbles, Demographic Change and Natural Disasters. Opening Speech at 2011 Annual International Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, June 1.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2011b). Globalization and Population Aging: Challenges Facing Japan. Speech to the Board of Councillors of Nippon Keidanren, December 22.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2012). Demographic Changes and Macroeconomic Performance: Japanese Experiences. Opening Remark at 2012 BOJ-IMES Conference hosted by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, the Bank of Japan, May 30.
  • Shirakawa, M. (2013). Toward strengthening the competitiveness and growth potential of Japan’s economy. Speechat the Executive Member Meeting of the Policy Board of Nippon Keidanren, Tokyo,28 February.
  • Soto, M. (2009). System GMM estimation with a small sample (Working Paper No. 395).
  • Tarı, R. (2014). Ekonometri (10. Basım), Kocaeli: Umuttepe Yayınları.
  • Tekin-Koru A. & Özmen E. (2003). Budget Deficits, Money Growth and Inflation: The Turkish Evidence. Applied Economics, 35(5), 591-596.
  • Ünsal, E. (2005). Makro İktisat, İmaj Yayınevi, Ankara.
  • Wooldridge, J. M. (2002). Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, Massachusetts:The MIT Press.
  • Yerdelen Tatoğlu, F. (2018). İleri Panel Veri Analizi Stata Uygulamalı, Beta Basım Yayım, Düzenlenmiş ve Yenilenmiş 3. Baskı: İstanbul.
  • Yoon, J.-W., Kim, J., & Lee, J. (2014). Impact of Demographic Changes on Inflation and the Macroeconomy, IMF Working Paper, Office of the Executive Director, WP/14/210.
There are 50 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Political Science
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Ayşe Durgun Kaygısız 0000-0002-8062-7473

Zeynep Ezanoğlu This is me 0000-0002-4601-7567

Publication Date March 31, 2021
Submission Date March 6, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 30 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Durgun Kaygısız, A., & Ezanoğlu, Z. (2021). Demografik Değişimin Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi. Siyasal: Journal of Political Sciences, 30(1), 45-64.