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Substitution effect of tourism destinations in Türkiye: Case study of Iranian tourists

Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 144 - 149, 04.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.1383655

Abstract

This study investigates the substitution effect between the destinations of Iranian tourists who travel to Turkey, distinguishing between Istanbul and other touristic cities. For this purpose, it uses the Dynamic Linear Regression model in the class of time-varying parameters described in a State Space framework. The data are monthly 2018-1 to 2023-2 the results show that there is a dynamic relationship between the “number of incoming Iranian tourists to Istanbul” and “the number of incoming Iranian tourists to other destinations”. It seems that the opening of Istanbul's new airport and the diversification of flights to Turkish destinations have an important factor in the dynamics of the parameter. There is a substitution effect between Istanbul and other touristic destinations. Also, inflation (both Iran and Turkey) affects Iranians' travel behavior to Turkey due to two features: One is due to the decrease in the purchasing power of Iranians and the second is due to the change in the national currency of the two countries.

References

  • Acar, V. & Tanrisevdi, A. (2019). Participant Observations on Iranian Tourists Taking Part in Guided Excursions: The Case of Kusadasi, Türkiye. Manas Journal of Social Studies, 8(2), 2187-2213.
  • Asadi, R., and Daryaei, M. (2011). Prioritization Of Pull Factors of Türkiye as A Destination For Iranian Tourists. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5 (10), 1510-1515.
  • Barati, J. (2022). Investigating the Impact of the Domestic Travel of Iranian Households from Change in Household Purchasing Power. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 10(39), 247-273. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2019a). Infrastructure Factors and Their Impact Measuring on Growth on Tourism Economy in Iranian Provinces. The Journal of Economic Modeling Research (JEMR), 10(38), 207-246. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2019b). Investigating the Regional Convergence of Tourism and the Role of Tourism Infrastructure in Iranian Provinces. Journal of Regional Planning, 9(35), 207-246. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2023). Tourism Economics: Foundations and Applications. 1th Edition, Mashhad JDM Press, www.jdmpress.com. https://www.itor.ir/?id=8903.
  • Birolini, S. (2020). Modeling of Supply-Demand Interactions in the Optimization of Air Transport Networks. Thesis in Doctoral Degree in Technology Innovation and Management, University of Bergamo.
  • Candela, G. & Figini, P. (2012). The Economics of Tourism Destinations. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Castillo-Manzano J. I., Pozo-Barajas, R. & Trapero, J. R. (2015). Measuring the substitution effects between High-Speed Rail and air transport in Spain. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 59–65.
  • Çetin, I.; Öter, Z. & Gürses, F. (2018). Quality Perceptions of Iranian Tourists’ Visiting Province of Van/Türkiye. International Journal of Tourism, Economic and Business Sciences, 2(2): 122-129.
  • Das, Narasingha.; Gangopadhyay, Partha.; Işık, Cem.; Alvarado, Rafael. & Ahmad, Munir. (2023). Do volatilities in tourism arrivals and foreign aids matter for GDP volatility in Cambodia? Partial and vector coherence wavelet models. Tourism Economics
  • Dogru, Tarik, and Ercan Sirakaya-Turk. (2018). Modeling Turkish outbound tourism demand using a dynamic panel data approach. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 18, 411–414.
  • Dogru, Tarik; Isik, Cem & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. Tourism Management, Volume 74, Pages 12-23.
  • Duman, M.Z. (2016). Van’a Gelen İranlı Turistlerin Profilleri Üzerine Sosyolojik Bir Araştırma. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9 (46), 399-408.
  • Duman, T. & Kozak, M. (2009). The Turkish Tourism Product: Differentiation and Competitiveness. Anatolia, 21(1), 89–106.
  • Etemaddar, M.; Thyne, M. & Insch, A (2018). A taste of home: choosing a destination wedding. Anatolia. 29:3, 422-432.
  • Evren, S.; Evren, E. S. & Cakici, C. (2020). Moderating effect of optimum stimulation level on the relationship between satisfaction and revisit intention: the case of Turkish cultural tourists. International Journal of Culture, Tourism, and Hospitality Research, 14(4), 681–695.
  • Hashemi Moghaddam, A. (2021). Different Iranian Tourist Experiences in Türkiye, Case Studies: Istanbul, Antalya, Konya. Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences, Department of Anthropology.
  • Işık, Cem.; Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan. & Ongan, Serdar. (2019). Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence. Tourism Economics, vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357.
  • Kaya, A. A. ve Gülcan, B. (2021). İranlı Ziyaretçilerin Van’ın Kültürel Mirasına Bağlı Rekreasyon Etkinliklerine İlgi ve Katılımları. Journal of Academic Tourism Studies, 2(2): 68-87.
  • Kozak, M. (2001). Repeaters' behavior at two distinct destinations. Annals of Tourism Research, 28(3): 784-807. McTaggart D., Findlay C., Parkin M. (1999). Micro Economics. 3rd ed. Addison-Wesley; Melbourne.
  • Ozcan, C. C. & Uçak, H. (2016). Outbound Tourism Demand of Türkiye: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach. Czech Journal of Tourism, 5(2). 59-72.
  • Ozturk, Y., San, R.A., Okumus, F., and Rahimi, R. (2017). Travel Motivations of Iranian Tourists To Türkiye And Their Satisfaction Level With All-Inclusive Package Tours, Journal of Vacation Marketing, 1-12.
  • Petris, G. (2009). dlm: an R package for Bayesian analysis of Dynamic Linear Models. University of Arkansas, Fayetteville AR, pp. 1-24.
  • Petris, G., Petrone, S., Compagnoli, P. (2007). Dynamic Linear Models with R. Monography. Springer.
  • Piccoli, P.P. (2015) Identification of a Dynamic Linear Model for the American GDP. Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice.
  • Soltani, S., Barati, J., Razaghian, F. & Forough-Zadeh, S. (2019). The determinants of poverty in informal settlement areas of Mashhad (case study: Shahid Ghorbani quarter). Iranian Economic Review 23 (1), 29-45.
  • Tribe J. (1995). The Economics of Leisure and Tourism Environments, Markets and Impacts. Butterworth-Heinemann; Oxford.
  • Ulucak, R.; Gökhan Yücel, A. & Çağrı, I. (2020). Dynamics of tourism demand in Türkiye: Panel data analysis using gravity model. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1394-1414.
  • Ünal, A. & Özgürel, G. (2021). A research on determining the destination quality perceptions and intentions to revisit of bleisure tourists: İstanbul case. To & Re, 3(1), 1-10.
  • Varian, H. (2014). Intermediate Microeconomics. 9th Edition. New York.
  • West, M., Harrison, J., (1989). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. Springer-Verlag, New York.
Year 2023, Volume: 5 Issue: 2, 144 - 149, 04.01.2024
https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.1383655

Abstract

References

  • Acar, V. & Tanrisevdi, A. (2019). Participant Observations on Iranian Tourists Taking Part in Guided Excursions: The Case of Kusadasi, Türkiye. Manas Journal of Social Studies, 8(2), 2187-2213.
  • Asadi, R., and Daryaei, M. (2011). Prioritization Of Pull Factors of Türkiye as A Destination For Iranian Tourists. Australian Journal of Basic and Applied Sciences, 5 (10), 1510-1515.
  • Barati, J. (2022). Investigating the Impact of the Domestic Travel of Iranian Households from Change in Household Purchasing Power. Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 10(39), 247-273. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2019a). Infrastructure Factors and Their Impact Measuring on Growth on Tourism Economy in Iranian Provinces. The Journal of Economic Modeling Research (JEMR), 10(38), 207-246. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2019b). Investigating the Regional Convergence of Tourism and the Role of Tourism Infrastructure in Iranian Provinces. Journal of Regional Planning, 9(35), 207-246. (In Persian)
  • Barati, J. (2023). Tourism Economics: Foundations and Applications. 1th Edition, Mashhad JDM Press, www.jdmpress.com. https://www.itor.ir/?id=8903.
  • Birolini, S. (2020). Modeling of Supply-Demand Interactions in the Optimization of Air Transport Networks. Thesis in Doctoral Degree in Technology Innovation and Management, University of Bergamo.
  • Candela, G. & Figini, P. (2012). The Economics of Tourism Destinations. Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. Castillo-Manzano J. I., Pozo-Barajas, R. & Trapero, J. R. (2015). Measuring the substitution effects between High-Speed Rail and air transport in Spain. Journal of Transport Geography, 43, 59–65.
  • Çetin, I.; Öter, Z. & Gürses, F. (2018). Quality Perceptions of Iranian Tourists’ Visiting Province of Van/Türkiye. International Journal of Tourism, Economic and Business Sciences, 2(2): 122-129.
  • Das, Narasingha.; Gangopadhyay, Partha.; Işık, Cem.; Alvarado, Rafael. & Ahmad, Munir. (2023). Do volatilities in tourism arrivals and foreign aids matter for GDP volatility in Cambodia? Partial and vector coherence wavelet models. Tourism Economics
  • Dogru, Tarik, and Ercan Sirakaya-Turk. (2018). Modeling Turkish outbound tourism demand using a dynamic panel data approach. Tourism and Hospitality Research, 18, 411–414.
  • Dogru, Tarik; Isik, Cem & Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan. (2019). The balance of trade and exchange rates: Theory and contemporary evidence from tourism. Tourism Management, Volume 74, Pages 12-23.
  • Duman, M.Z. (2016). Van’a Gelen İranlı Turistlerin Profilleri Üzerine Sosyolojik Bir Araştırma. Uluslararası Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9 (46), 399-408.
  • Duman, T. & Kozak, M. (2009). The Turkish Tourism Product: Differentiation and Competitiveness. Anatolia, 21(1), 89–106.
  • Etemaddar, M.; Thyne, M. & Insch, A (2018). A taste of home: choosing a destination wedding. Anatolia. 29:3, 422-432.
  • Evren, S.; Evren, E. S. & Cakici, C. (2020). Moderating effect of optimum stimulation level on the relationship between satisfaction and revisit intention: the case of Turkish cultural tourists. International Journal of Culture, Tourism, and Hospitality Research, 14(4), 681–695.
  • Hashemi Moghaddam, A. (2021). Different Iranian Tourist Experiences in Türkiye, Case Studies: Istanbul, Antalya, Konya. Hacettepe University Graduate School of Social Sciences, Department of Anthropology.
  • Işık, Cem.; Sirakaya-Turk, Ercan. & Ongan, Serdar. (2019). Testing the efficacy of the economic policy uncertainty index on tourism demand in USMCA: Theory and evidence. Tourism Economics, vol. 26(8), pages 1344-1357.
  • Kaya, A. A. ve Gülcan, B. (2021). İranlı Ziyaretçilerin Van’ın Kültürel Mirasına Bağlı Rekreasyon Etkinliklerine İlgi ve Katılımları. Journal of Academic Tourism Studies, 2(2): 68-87.
  • Kozak, M. (2001). Repeaters' behavior at two distinct destinations. Annals of Tourism Research, 28(3): 784-807. McTaggart D., Findlay C., Parkin M. (1999). Micro Economics. 3rd ed. Addison-Wesley; Melbourne.
  • Ozcan, C. C. & Uçak, H. (2016). Outbound Tourism Demand of Türkiye: A Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive Approach. Czech Journal of Tourism, 5(2). 59-72.
  • Ozturk, Y., San, R.A., Okumus, F., and Rahimi, R. (2017). Travel Motivations of Iranian Tourists To Türkiye And Their Satisfaction Level With All-Inclusive Package Tours, Journal of Vacation Marketing, 1-12.
  • Petris, G. (2009). dlm: an R package for Bayesian analysis of Dynamic Linear Models. University of Arkansas, Fayetteville AR, pp. 1-24.
  • Petris, G., Petrone, S., Compagnoli, P. (2007). Dynamic Linear Models with R. Monography. Springer.
  • Piccoli, P.P. (2015) Identification of a Dynamic Linear Model for the American GDP. Università Ca' Foscari Venezia, Venice.
  • Soltani, S., Barati, J., Razaghian, F. & Forough-Zadeh, S. (2019). The determinants of poverty in informal settlement areas of Mashhad (case study: Shahid Ghorbani quarter). Iranian Economic Review 23 (1), 29-45.
  • Tribe J. (1995). The Economics of Leisure and Tourism Environments, Markets and Impacts. Butterworth-Heinemann; Oxford.
  • Ulucak, R.; Gökhan Yücel, A. & Çağrı, I. (2020). Dynamics of tourism demand in Türkiye: Panel data analysis using gravity model. Tourism Economics, 26(8), 1394-1414.
  • Ünal, A. & Özgürel, G. (2021). A research on determining the destination quality perceptions and intentions to revisit of bleisure tourists: İstanbul case. To & Re, 3(1), 1-10.
  • Varian, H. (2014). Intermediate Microeconomics. 9th Edition. New York.
  • West, M., Harrison, J., (1989). Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models. Springer-Verlag, New York.
There are 31 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Tourism Policy
Journal Section Peer-reviewed Articles
Authors

Javad Barati 0000-0001-7776-2394

Publication Date January 4, 2024
Submission Date October 31, 2023
Acceptance Date December 6, 2023
Published in Issue Year 2023 Volume: 5 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Barati, J. (2024). Substitution effect of tourism destinations in Türkiye: Case study of Iranian tourists. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality, 5(2), 144-149. https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.1383655

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