Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2024,
Sayı: 24, 1 - 14, 01.04.2024
Öz
Worldwide, debt and interest on debt continue to increase in terms of both the amount and the ratio of national income. While borrowing should be used for investment purposes or preferred in bad times, it is seen that it is used intensely for consumption purposes, including the good periods of the economy, as seen before the pandemic. In this context, it is important to identify the variables that cause the debt growth and to develop policies to keep the debt growth at a moderate level. In this article, the growth of Turkey's external debt stock is modeled with the triple deficit concept and the cointegration method using the relevant data for the 1975-2020 period. It has been observed that the biggest significant positive effect on the total debt is from the difference of the reserve.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Agénor, P.R., and Montiel, P.J., (2008), Development Macroeconomics. 123-124, Third Edition, Princeton University Press,
- Bacha, E., (1989), A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries. 7, Texto para discussão, No. 221, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Departamento de Economia, Rio de Janeiro, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/186468
- Blanchard, O., Johnson, D.R., Macroeconomics. (2013), 500, Sixth Edition, Pearson Education,
- Cecchetti, S.G., Mohanty, M.S., Zampolli, F., (2011), The real effects of debt. BIS Working papers No 352, 21, http://www.bis.org/publ/work352.htm
- Checherita, C., Rother, P., (2010), The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth an Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper Series, No 1237, 22, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1237.pdf
- Checherita-Westphal, C., Semeano, J.D., (2020), Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area, ECB Working Paper Series No.2486, 32, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps
- Chenery, H. B. Strout, (1965), A. M., Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. A.I.D. Discussion Paper No. 7, 35, https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABQ351.pdf
- Dawood, M., Baidoo, S.T., Shah, S.M.R., An empirical investigation into the determinants of external debt in Asian developing and transitioning economies. Development Studies Research, 2021, Vol. 8, NO. 1, 253–263, 258 https://doi.org/10.1080/ 21665095.2021.1976658
- Deaton, A., (2005). Franco Modigliani and the Life Cycle Theory of Consumption. Research Program in Development Studies and Center for Health and Wellbeing Princeton University, 1, https://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/romelecture.pdf
- Eaton, J., Gersowitz, M., (1981). Debt with Potential Reputation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Review of Economic Studies XLVIII, 289-300, 289-309,
- Eichengreen, B., El-Ganainy, A., Esteves, R., Mitchener, K.J., (2021), In Defense of Public Debt. Oxford University Press, 209
- Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., (1999). Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. NBER Working Paper Series, 122, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7418
- Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., Panizza, U., (2007). Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters. NBER Working Paper Series, 2-4, http://www.nber.org/papers/c0150
- Engle, Robert F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55, 251–276. 270
- Eren, E., Malamud, S., (2019), Dominant Currency Debt. BIS Working Papers No 783, 44, https://www.bis.org/publ/work783.pdf
- Fei, J, C. H., Ranis, G., (1967), Foreign Assistance and Economic Development Revisited. 2, Center Discussion Paper, No. 41, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, CT, https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context =egcenter-discussion-paper-series
- Free, R.C., (2010), 21st Century Economics: A Reference Handbook. 374-375, SAGE Publications, Inc.,
- Freytag, A., Paldam, M., (2012), Comparing good and bad borrowing in developing countries – a study of twin cases. Working Papers on Global Financial Markets, No. 31, 20, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:gbv:27-20131126-140820-8, s. 20
- Gujarati, D.N., Porter, D.C., (2009), Basic Econometrics. 5th ed., McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 788
- Hamilton, J.D., (1994), Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, 502
- Hansen, B.E., (1992), Test for parameter Instability in Regression with I(1) Process, Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, July 1992, Vol. 10, No. 3. 321-335, 322
- Hilscher, J., Raviv, A., Reis, R., (2014), Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment. NBER Working Paper No. 20339, 41, https://www.nber.org/ working_papers/w20339.pdf
- Hjalmarsson, E., Österholm, P., (2007), Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated. IMF Working Paper, WP/07/141, 4, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07141.pdf
- International Monetary Fund (2022), Global Debt Database, https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/datasets/GDD
- Mankiw, N. G., Macroeconomics. (2009), 573, Seventh Edition, Worth Publishers
- Magoti E., Mabula S. and Ngong’ho S.B., (2020), Triple Deficit Hypothesis: A Panel ARDL and DumitrescuHurlin Panel Causality forEast African Countries, African Journal of Economic Review, Volume VIII, Issue I, January 2020, 144-161, 158
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, O. J., Fisher, S., (1993), Lectures on Macroeconomics. 516, The MIT Press, Sixth Printing
- Ranasinghe, D., Reuters, (2021). Global debt is fast approaching record to $300 trillion – IIF. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-debt-is-fast-approaching-record-300-trillion-iif-2021-09-14/
- Reinhart, C.M., and Rogoff K.S., (2010), Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100, 573–578, 577
- Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S., Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100 (May 2010): 573–578, s. 577
- Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S., Savastano, M.A., (2003), Debt Intolerance. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 25, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1209144
- Rinaldi, L., Sanchis-Arellano, A., (2006) Household Debt Sustainability What Explains Household Non-performing loans? An empirical analysis. ECB Working Paper Series No.570, 29, http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=872528
- Soh, W.N., , H., Tze San, O., (2021), The Impact of Government Efficiency, Corruption, and Inflation on Public Debt: Empirical Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies, Pertanika J. Soc. Sci. & Hum. 29 (3): 1551 – 1570, 1566
- Syczewska, E.M., (2011), Cointegration Since Granger: Evolution and Development. Quantitative Methods in Economics, Vol. XII, No. 1, 147–164, 150
- Şen A., Şentürk M., Sancar C., and Akbaş Y.E., (2014), Empirical Findings on Triplet Deficits Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 35, 1 (2014), 81-102,
- The World Bank (2022), Data Bank/World Development Indicators https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
- Von Hagen, J., Wolf, G.B., (2006), What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU., Journal of Banking & Finance 30 3259–3279, 3275
Yıl 2024,
Sayı: 24, 1 - 14, 01.04.2024
Öz
Dünya genelinde borç ile borç faizlerinin hem miktarı hem de milli gelire oranı artmaya devam etmektedir. Borçlanmanın yatırım amaçlı kullanılması veya kötü zamanlarda tercih edilmesi gerekirken, pandemi öncesinde de görüldüğü üzere ekonominin iyi dönemleri de dâhil olmak üzere tüketim amaçlı yoğun olarak kullanılmaktadır. Bu bağlamda borç artışına neden olan değişkenlerin tespit edilmesi ve borç büyümesinin ılımlı düzeyde tutulmasına yönelik politikaların geliştirilmesi önem taşımaktadır. Bu makalede, Türkiye'nin dış borç stokunun büyümesi, 1976-2022 dönemine ilişkin veriler kullanılarak üçlü açık kavramı ve eş bütünleşme yöntemiyle modellenmiştir. Yapılan ampirik çalışmada, toplam borç üzerindeki en büyük pozitif etkinin rezerv farkından kaynaklandığı görülmüştür.
Kaynakça
- Agénor, P.R., and Montiel, P.J., (2008), Development Macroeconomics. 123-124, Third Edition, Princeton University Press,
- Bacha, E., (1989), A three-gap model of foreign transfers and the GDP growth rate in developing countries. 7, Texto para discussão, No. 221, Pontifícia Universidade Católica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Departamento de Economia, Rio de Janeiro, http://hdl.handle.net/10419/186468
- Blanchard, O., Johnson, D.R., Macroeconomics. (2013), 500, Sixth Edition, Pearson Education,
- Cecchetti, S.G., Mohanty, M.S., Zampolli, F., (2011), The real effects of debt. BIS Working papers No 352, 21, http://www.bis.org/publ/work352.htm
- Checherita, C., Rother, P., (2010), The Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth an Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area. ECB Working Paper Series, No 1237, 22, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1237.pdf
- Checherita-Westphal, C., Semeano, J.D., (2020), Interest rate-growth differentials on government debt: an empirical investigation for the euro area, ECB Working Paper Series No.2486, 32, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps
- Chenery, H. B. Strout, (1965), A. M., Foreign Assistance and Economic Development. A.I.D. Discussion Paper No. 7, 35, https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PNABQ351.pdf
- Dawood, M., Baidoo, S.T., Shah, S.M.R., An empirical investigation into the determinants of external debt in Asian developing and transitioning economies. Development Studies Research, 2021, Vol. 8, NO. 1, 253–263, 258 https://doi.org/10.1080/ 21665095.2021.1976658
- Deaton, A., (2005). Franco Modigliani and the Life Cycle Theory of Consumption. Research Program in Development Studies and Center for Health and Wellbeing Princeton University, 1, https://www.princeton.edu/~deaton/downloads/romelecture.pdf
- Eaton, J., Gersowitz, M., (1981). Debt with Potential Reputation: Theoretical and Empirical Analysis. Review of Economic Studies XLVIII, 289-300, 289-309,
- Eichengreen, B., El-Ganainy, A., Esteves, R., Mitchener, K.J., (2021), In Defense of Public Debt. Oxford University Press, 209
- Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., (1999). Exchange Rates and Financial Fragility. NBER Working Paper Series, 122, http://www.nber.org/papers/w7418
- Eichengreen, B., Hausmann, R., Panizza, U., (2007). Currency Mismatches, Debt Intolerance, and the Original Sin: Why They Are Not the Same and Why It Matters. NBER Working Paper Series, 2-4, http://www.nber.org/papers/c0150
- Engle, Robert F. and C. W. J. Granger (1987). “Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing,” Econometrica, 55, 251–276. 270
- Eren, E., Malamud, S., (2019), Dominant Currency Debt. BIS Working Papers No 783, 44, https://www.bis.org/publ/work783.pdf
- Fei, J, C. H., Ranis, G., (1967), Foreign Assistance and Economic Development Revisited. 2, Center Discussion Paper, No. 41, Yale University, Economic Growth Center, New Haven, CT, https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1048&context =egcenter-discussion-paper-series
- Free, R.C., (2010), 21st Century Economics: A Reference Handbook. 374-375, SAGE Publications, Inc.,
- Freytag, A., Paldam, M., (2012), Comparing good and bad borrowing in developing countries – a study of twin cases. Working Papers on Global Financial Markets, No. 31, 20, http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:gbv:27-20131126-140820-8, s. 20
- Gujarati, D.N., Porter, D.C., (2009), Basic Econometrics. 5th ed., McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 788
- Hamilton, J.D., (1994), Time Series Analysis. Princeton University Press, 502
- Hansen, B.E., (1992), Test for parameter Instability in Regression with I(1) Process, Journal of Business & Economic Statistic, July 1992, Vol. 10, No. 3. 321-335, 322
- Hilscher, J., Raviv, A., Reis, R., (2014), Inflating Away the Public Debt? An Empirical Assessment. NBER Working Paper No. 20339, 41, https://www.nber.org/ working_papers/w20339.pdf
- Hjalmarsson, E., Österholm, P., (2007), Testing for Cointegration Using the Johansen Methodology when Variables are Near-Integrated. IMF Working Paper, WP/07/141, 4, https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2007/wp07141.pdf
- International Monetary Fund (2022), Global Debt Database, https://www.imf.org/external/ datamapper/datasets/GDD
- Mankiw, N. G., Macroeconomics. (2009), 573, Seventh Edition, Worth Publishers
- Magoti E., Mabula S. and Ngong’ho S.B., (2020), Triple Deficit Hypothesis: A Panel ARDL and DumitrescuHurlin Panel Causality forEast African Countries, African Journal of Economic Review, Volume VIII, Issue I, January 2020, 144-161, 158
- Olivier Jean Blanchard, O. J., Fisher, S., (1993), Lectures on Macroeconomics. 516, The MIT Press, Sixth Printing
- Ranasinghe, D., Reuters, (2021). Global debt is fast approaching record to $300 trillion – IIF. https://www.reuters.com/business/global-debt-is-fast-approaching-record-300-trillion-iif-2021-09-14/
- Reinhart, C.M., and Rogoff K.S., (2010), Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100, 573–578, 577
- Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S., Growth in a Time of Debt, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100 (May 2010): 573–578, s. 577
- Reinhart, C.M., Rogoff, K.S., Savastano, M.A., (2003), Debt Intolerance. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1: 25, http://www.jstor.org/stable/1209144
- Rinaldi, L., Sanchis-Arellano, A., (2006) Household Debt Sustainability What Explains Household Non-performing loans? An empirical analysis. ECB Working Paper Series No.570, 29, http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=872528
- Soh, W.N., , H., Tze San, O., (2021), The Impact of Government Efficiency, Corruption, and Inflation on Public Debt: Empirical Evidence from Advanced and Emerging Economies, Pertanika J. Soc. Sci. & Hum. 29 (3): 1551 – 1570, 1566
- Syczewska, E.M., (2011), Cointegration Since Granger: Evolution and Development. Quantitative Methods in Economics, Vol. XII, No. 1, 147–164, 150
- Şen A., Şentürk M., Sancar C., and Akbaş Y.E., (2014), Empirical Findings on Triplet Deficits Hypothesis: The Case of Turkey, Journal of Economic Cooperation and Development, 35, 1 (2014), 81-102,
- The World Bank (2022), Data Bank/World Development Indicators https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators
- Von Hagen, J., Wolf, G.B., (2006), What do deficits tell us about debt? Empirical evidence on creative accounting with fiscal rules in the EU., Journal of Banking & Finance 30 3259–3279, 3275
Toplam 37 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | İngilizce |
|---|---|
| Konular | Siyaset Bilimi (Diğer) |
| Bölüm | Makale |
| Yazarlar | |
| Erken Görünüm Tarihi | 26 Mart 2024 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 1 Nisan 2024 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 19 Haziran 2023 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2024 Sayı: 24 |
- Makale Dosyaları
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