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Türkiye’nin Yakın Dönem Enflasyon Deneyimi: Talep Çekişli ve Maliyet İtişli Enflasyonist Etkilere Göre Enflasyonun Temel Sebepleri ve Ekonomi Politikası Açısından Bir Değerlendirme

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 59 - 83, 31.12.2022

Öz

Türkiye ekonomisi 2001 yılında yaşadığı krizin ardından uygulanan yeni politikalar sayesinde uzun dönemli enflasyon ataletini kırmayı ve fiyat istikrarını sağlamayı başarmıştır. Fakat 2010’lu yılların ortalarından itibaren yaşanan gelişmeler bu süreci tersine çevirmiştir. Türkiye ekonomisi 2004 yılından itibaren yaşadığı tek haneli enflasyon deneyimini sürdürememiş ve 2017 yılından itibaren çift haneli enflasyonist sürece girmiştir. Bu çalışmada da Türkiye’nin yakın dönem enflasyon deneyimi ve bu sürecin nedenleri araştırılmaktadır. 2016 yılı Ocak ayından başlayarak 2022 yılı Şubat ayına kadar geçen sürecin ele alındığı bu çalışmada uygulanan Gregory-Hansen yapısal kırılmalı koentegrasyon ve Hsiao nedensellik analizleri neticesinde, Tüketici ve Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatlarına ait ana endeksler arasında herhangi bir nedensellik ilişkisine rastlanılamamıştır. Fakat alt endeksler bazında bakıldığında, Tüketici Fiyatlarından Elektrik, Gaz, Buhar ve İklimlendirme Üretimi ve Dağıtımı kapsamındaki ürünlere doğru ve Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatlarından Konut fiyatlarına doğru tek yönlü, Yurtiçi Üretici Fiyatları ile Gıda ve Alkolsüz İçecekler grubuna ait ürünlerin fiyatları arasında ise çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisine ulaşılmıştır. Kısaca bu dönemde hem maliyet itişli hem de talep çekişli enflasyonist yapılar etkili olmuştur.

Kaynakça

  • Abdioğlu, Z., & Korkmaz, Ö. (2012). Price transmission between consumer and producer price indices: sub-sectors. Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Business Administrative Sciences, 16(2), 65-81.
  • Akçay, S. (2011). The causal relationship between producer price ındex and consumer price ındex: empirical evidence from selected european countries. International Journal of Economics And Finance, 3(6), 227-232.
  • Alemu, Z. G. (2012). Causality links between consumer and producer price ınflation in south africa. Applied Economics Letters, 19(1), 13-18.
  • Bağdigen, M. & Beşer B. (2009), An analysis of the casuality releatıon between public expenditures and economic growth based on Wagner’s law: the case of turkey. ZKU Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 1-17.
  • Belton, W. J., & Nair-Reichert, U. (2007). Inflation regimes, core inflation measures and the relationship between producer and consumer price ınflation. Applied Economics, 39(10), 1295-1305.
  • Biçen, Ö. F. & Çoban, M. N. (2018), The Validity of the Barro model on the basis of defense expenditures. ICEB’18, 27-29 June 2018, Budapest/Hungary, 32-40.
  • Bozkurt, E., & Altıner, A. (2018). Determination of unemployment hysteresis wıth linear and nonlinear unit root in turkey. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 167-180.
  • CBRT (2022a), USD Currency Sales, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022b), Total Consumer Credits, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022c), Total Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022d), Gross Domestic Product (at buyer's prices), Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022e), Electronic Data Distribution System, Accessed: 18.03.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • Clark, T. E. (1995). Do producer prices lead consumer prices?. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 80, 25-39.
  • Cushing, M. J., & McGarvey, M. G. (1990). Feedback between wholesale and consumer price inflation: A reexamination of the evidence, Southern Economic Journal 56, pp. 1059-72
  • Emek, Ö. F., Düşünceli, F., & Doru, Ö. (2021). Investigation of the exchange rate pass-through effect on domestic producer and consumer prices in Turkey. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 71(1), 163-190.
  • Erdem, H. F. & Yamak, R. (2014). The transitivity degree between producer price ındex and consumer price ındex. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(4), 1-13.
  • Gang, F. A. N., Liping, H. E., & Jiani, H. U. (2009). CPI vs. PPI: Which drives which?. Frontiers of Economics in China, 4(3), 317-334.
  • Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). “Residual-Based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979), “Autoregressive modeling of Canadian money and income data”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(367), 553-560.
  • Jones, J. D. (1986). Consumer prices, wholesale prices, and causality. Empirical Economics, 11(1), 41-55.
  • Jongwanich, J., Wongcharoen, P., & Park, D. (2016). Determinants of consumer price inflation versus producer price inflation in Asia. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, (491).
  • Kara. B. & Keskin, A. (2021). Producer price index, consumer price index and fiscal policy: 1996-2020 period and Turkey. Journal of Kafkas University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty. 12(24), 881-899.
  • Kayıkçı, F., & Kaplan, S. (2019). Inflation targeting in Turkey. Theoretical Economics Letters, 9(07), 2217-2228.
  • Kazgan, G. (2006), Turkish Economy from the Tanzimat to the 21st Century. 3rd Edition, Istanbul Bilgi University Publishing: Istanbul.
  • Kepenek, Y. (2012), Turkish Economics, 25th Edition, Remzi Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Kılıçbay, A. (1999), Turkish Economy, 5th Edition, Bilim Teknik Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Külünk, İ. (2020), Inflation in the Turkish economy and anti-inflation policies, developments in the Turkish economy in the framework of basic economic indicators (Eds. İbrahim Murat BİCİL ve Ömer Faruk BİÇEN), Gazi Publishing: Ankara.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?. Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of economics and statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Mert, M. & Çağlar, A. E. (2019), Eviews and gaussian applied time series analysis, 1st Edition, Detay Publishing: Ankara.
  • Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2018). Analysis of relationships and causality between consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (ppı) and purchasing manager’s index (PMI) in South Africa. Journal Of Economics And Behavioral Studies, 10(6), 25-32.
  • Murat, Ü. & Atakişi, A. (2018). The Case Of Inflation in Turkey and Inflation Targeting. 4(19), 478-484.
  • Orhan, O. Z. & Erdoğan, S. (2018), Monetary Policy, 3rd Edition, Umuttepe Publishing: Kocaeli.
  • Öner, H. (2018). The analyses of relationshıp between consumer price index and producer prıce index via Granger casuality test. Journal of Finance, Economics and Social Studies, 3(1), 318-327.
  • Pamuk, Ş. (2014), 200 Years of Economic History of Turkey, 3rd Editionı, Türkiye İş Bankası Cultural Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Saatçioğlu, C., & Karaca, O. (2017). Causality relationship between producer prices and consumer prices in Turkey: 2005-2016. The Sakarya Journal Of Economics, 6(2), 1-16.
  • Saraç, T. B., & Karagöz, K. (2010). The relationship between consumer and producer price indices in Turkey: structural break and ARDL bounds test. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 220-232.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2007). Econometric Time Series Analysis. Nobel Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Sidaoui, J., Capistrán, C., Chiquiar, D., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2009). On the predictive content of the PPI on CPI inflation: The Case of Mexico. BIS Papers, 49, 249-257.
  • Tarı, R., Abasız, T., & Pehlivanoğlu, F. (2012). Causality relationship between the TEFE and TUFE: a frequency domain approach. Journal of Akdeniz University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(24), 1-15.
  • Terzi, H. (2004), Inflation and economic growth relation in Turkey (1924-2002). Gazi University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6(3), 59-75.
  • Terzi̇, H., & Tütüncü, A. (2017). Examination of the relationship between producer price ındex and consumer price index: ARDL bounds testing approach. Sosyoekonomi, 25(34), 173-186.
  • Tiwari, A. K. (2012). An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price ındices in australia in frequency domain. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1571-1578.
  • Tiwari, A. K., Suresh, K. G., Arouri, M., & Teulon, F. (2014). Causality between consumer price and producer price: evidence from mexico. Economic Modelling, 36, 432-440.
  • Topuz, Y. V., Yazdifar, H., & Sahadev, S. (2018). The relation between the producer and consumer price indices: a two-country study. Journal Of Revenue And Pricing Management, 17(3), 122-130.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2020), Domestic Producer Price Index Product Basket Update, Accessed: 20.04.2022, https://www.tuik.gov.tr/.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2022a), Consumer Price Index Data (2003=100), Accessed: 16.04.2022, www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2022b), Domestic Producer Price Index (2003=100), Accessed: 16.04.2022, www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, (2022c), Consumer Price Index, March 2022, Accessed: 20.04.2022, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=T%C3%BCketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Mart-2022-45792&dil=1.
  • Ulke, V. & Ergun, U. (2014). The relationship between consumer price and producer price indices in Turkey. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 3(1), 205-222.
  • Yang, H.Y. (2000), A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan” Energy Economics, 22(3), 309-317.
  • Yıldırım, Z. (2015). Inflation regimes and the pass-through from producer to consumer price inflatıon. Central Bank Review, 15(3), 89-114.

Turkey's Recent Inflation Experience: Main Causes of Inflation According to Demand-pull and Cost-push Inflationary Effects and An Evaluation in Terms of Economy Policy

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2, 59 - 83, 31.12.2022

Öz

Turkish economy succeeded in breaking the long-term inflation inertia and maintaining price stability, thanks to the new policies implemented after the crisis in 2001. However, developments since the mid-2010s have reversed this process. The Turkish economy has not been able to sustain its single-digit inflation experience since 2004 and has entered a double-digit inflationary period since 2017. In this study, Turkey's recent inflation experience and the reasons for this process are investigated. As a result of the Gregory-Hansen structural break cointegration and Hsiao causality analyses applied in this study, which covers the process from January 2016 to February 2022, no causality relationship was found between the main indices of Consumer and Domestic Producer Prices. However, on the basis of sub-indices, a unidirectional causality relationship has been reached from Consumer Prices to Electricity, Gas, Steam and Air Conditioning Production and Distribution products and from Domestic Producer Prices to Housing prices, and bidirectional causality between Domestic Producer Prices and the prices of Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages group products. In short, both cost-push and demand-pull inflationary structures were effective in this period.

Kaynakça

  • Abdioğlu, Z., & Korkmaz, Ö. (2012). Price transmission between consumer and producer price indices: sub-sectors. Journal of Çukurova University Faculty of Economics and Business Administrative Sciences, 16(2), 65-81.
  • Akçay, S. (2011). The causal relationship between producer price ındex and consumer price ındex: empirical evidence from selected european countries. International Journal of Economics And Finance, 3(6), 227-232.
  • Alemu, Z. G. (2012). Causality links between consumer and producer price ınflation in south africa. Applied Economics Letters, 19(1), 13-18.
  • Bağdigen, M. & Beşer B. (2009), An analysis of the casuality releatıon between public expenditures and economic growth based on Wagner’s law: the case of turkey. ZKU Journal of Social Sciences, 5(9), 1-17.
  • Belton, W. J., & Nair-Reichert, U. (2007). Inflation regimes, core inflation measures and the relationship between producer and consumer price ınflation. Applied Economics, 39(10), 1295-1305.
  • Biçen, Ö. F. & Çoban, M. N. (2018), The Validity of the Barro model on the basis of defense expenditures. ICEB’18, 27-29 June 2018, Budapest/Hungary, 32-40.
  • Bozkurt, E., & Altıner, A. (2018). Determination of unemployment hysteresis wıth linear and nonlinear unit root in turkey. International Journal of Economic and Administrative Studies, 167-180.
  • CBRT (2022a), USD Currency Sales, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022b), Total Consumer Credits, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022c), Total Public Sector Borrowing Requirement, Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022d), Gross Domestic Product (at buyer's prices), Accessed: 17.04.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • CBRT (2022e), Electronic Data Distribution System, Accessed: 18.03.2022, https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr.
  • Clark, T. E. (1995). Do producer prices lead consumer prices?. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 80, 25-39.
  • Cushing, M. J., & McGarvey, M. G. (1990). Feedback between wholesale and consumer price inflation: A reexamination of the evidence, Southern Economic Journal 56, pp. 1059-72
  • Emek, Ö. F., Düşünceli, F., & Doru, Ö. (2021). Investigation of the exchange rate pass-through effect on domestic producer and consumer prices in Turkey. Istanbul Journal of Economics, 71(1), 163-190.
  • Erdem, H. F. & Yamak, R. (2014). The transitivity degree between producer price ındex and consumer price ındex. Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(4), 1-13.
  • Gang, F. A. N., Liping, H. E., & Jiani, H. U. (2009). CPI vs. PPI: Which drives which?. Frontiers of Economics in China, 4(3), 317-334.
  • Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics”. Journal of Econometrics, 2(2), 111-120.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). “Residual-Based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts”. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99-126.
  • Hsiao, C. (1979), “Autoregressive modeling of Canadian money and income data”. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(367), 553-560.
  • Jones, J. D. (1986). Consumer prices, wholesale prices, and causality. Empirical Economics, 11(1), 41-55.
  • Jongwanich, J., Wongcharoen, P., & Park, D. (2016). Determinants of consumer price inflation versus producer price inflation in Asia. Asian Development Bank Economics Working Paper Series, (491).
  • Kara. B. & Keskin, A. (2021). Producer price index, consumer price index and fiscal policy: 1996-2020 period and Turkey. Journal of Kafkas University Economics and Administrative Sciences Faculty. 12(24), 881-899.
  • Kayıkçı, F., & Kaplan, S. (2019). Inflation targeting in Turkey. Theoretical Economics Letters, 9(07), 2217-2228.
  • Kazgan, G. (2006), Turkish Economy from the Tanzimat to the 21st Century. 3rd Edition, Istanbul Bilgi University Publishing: Istanbul.
  • Kepenek, Y. (2012), Turkish Economics, 25th Edition, Remzi Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Kılıçbay, A. (1999), Turkish Economy, 5th Edition, Bilim Teknik Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Külünk, İ. (2020), Inflation in the Turkish economy and anti-inflation policies, developments in the Turkish economy in the framework of basic economic indicators (Eds. İbrahim Murat BİCİL ve Ömer Faruk BİÇEN), Gazi Publishing: Ankara.
  • Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips, P. C., Schmidt, P., & Shin, Y. (1992). Testing The Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against The Alternative of A Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have A Unit Root?. Journal of econometrics, 54(1-3), 159-178.
  • Lee, J., & Strazicich, M. C. (2003). Minimum lagrange multiplier unit root test with two structural breaks. Review of economics and statistics, 85(4), 1082-1089.
  • Mert, M. & Çağlar, A. E. (2019), Eviews and gaussian applied time series analysis, 1st Edition, Detay Publishing: Ankara.
  • Meyer, D. F., & Habanabakize, T. (2018). Analysis of relationships and causality between consumer price index (CPI), the producer price index (ppı) and purchasing manager’s index (PMI) in South Africa. Journal Of Economics And Behavioral Studies, 10(6), 25-32.
  • Murat, Ü. & Atakişi, A. (2018). The Case Of Inflation in Turkey and Inflation Targeting. 4(19), 478-484.
  • Orhan, O. Z. & Erdoğan, S. (2018), Monetary Policy, 3rd Edition, Umuttepe Publishing: Kocaeli.
  • Öner, H. (2018). The analyses of relationshıp between consumer price index and producer prıce index via Granger casuality test. Journal of Finance, Economics and Social Studies, 3(1), 318-327.
  • Pamuk, Ş. (2014), 200 Years of Economic History of Turkey, 3rd Editionı, Türkiye İş Bankası Cultural Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Saatçioğlu, C., & Karaca, O. (2017). Causality relationship between producer prices and consumer prices in Turkey: 2005-2016. The Sakarya Journal Of Economics, 6(2), 1-16.
  • Saraç, T. B., & Karagöz, K. (2010). The relationship between consumer and producer price indices in Turkey: structural break and ARDL bounds test. Maliye Dergisi, 159, 220-232.
  • Sevüktekin, M., & Nargeleçekenler, M. (2007). Econometric Time Series Analysis. Nobel Publishing: İstanbul.
  • Sidaoui, J., Capistrán, C., Chiquiar, D., & Ramos-Francia, M. (2009). On the predictive content of the PPI on CPI inflation: The Case of Mexico. BIS Papers, 49, 249-257.
  • Tarı, R., Abasız, T., & Pehlivanoğlu, F. (2012). Causality relationship between the TEFE and TUFE: a frequency domain approach. Journal of Akdeniz University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 12(24), 1-15.
  • Terzi, H. (2004), Inflation and economic growth relation in Turkey (1924-2002). Gazi University Journal of Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 6(3), 59-75.
  • Terzi̇, H., & Tütüncü, A. (2017). Examination of the relationship between producer price ındex and consumer price index: ARDL bounds testing approach. Sosyoekonomi, 25(34), 173-186.
  • Tiwari, A. K. (2012). An empirical investigation of causality between producers' price and consumers' price ındices in australia in frequency domain. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 1571-1578.
  • Tiwari, A. K., Suresh, K. G., Arouri, M., & Teulon, F. (2014). Causality between consumer price and producer price: evidence from mexico. Economic Modelling, 36, 432-440.
  • Topuz, Y. V., Yazdifar, H., & Sahadev, S. (2018). The relation between the producer and consumer price indices: a two-country study. Journal Of Revenue And Pricing Management, 17(3), 122-130.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2020), Domestic Producer Price Index Product Basket Update, Accessed: 20.04.2022, https://www.tuik.gov.tr/.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2022a), Consumer Price Index Data (2003=100), Accessed: 16.04.2022, www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute (2022b), Domestic Producer Price Index (2003=100), Accessed: 16.04.2022, www.tuik.gov.tr.
  • Turkish Statistical Institute, (2022c), Consumer Price Index, March 2022, Accessed: 20.04.2022, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=T%C3%BCketici-Fiyat-Endeksi-Mart-2022-45792&dil=1.
  • Ulke, V. & Ergun, U. (2014). The relationship between consumer price and producer price indices in Turkey. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 3(1), 205-222.
  • Yang, H.Y. (2000), A note on the causal relationship between energy and GDP in Taiwan” Energy Economics, 22(3), 309-317.
  • Yıldırım, Z. (2015). Inflation regimes and the pass-through from producer to consumer price inflatıon. Central Bank Review, 15(3), 89-114.
Toplam 53 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Araştırma Makaleleri
Yazarlar

Ömer Faruk Biçen 0000-0003-1021-5198

Yayımlanma Tarihi 31 Aralık 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Mayıs 2022
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 3 Sayı: 2

Kaynak Göster

APA Biçen, Ö. F. (2022). Turkey’s Recent Inflation Experience: Main Causes of Inflation According to Demand-pull and Cost-push Inflationary Effects and An Evaluation in Terms of Economy Policy. Balıkesir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 3(2), 59-83.