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Do Energy Prices and Industrialization Affect Energy Intensity? The Case of Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 275 - 294, 29.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1001739

Öz

This study differs from other studies with the research of the energy density of Turkey, which imports more than half of its energy demand. While GDP per capita in Turkey increased by 347% in 2019 compared to 1968, energy consumption per capita increased by 324% in parallel with this. In other words, efficient use of energy in Turkey continues to be a big problem despite technological developments. Therefore, it is considered important to reduce energy intensity in Turkey, which is dependent on foreign energy. In this study, the relationship between GDP per capita, industrialization and energy prices, and energy intensity in the 1968-2019 period in the Turkish economy is investigated. The unit root process was determined by Perron (1989) and Zivot and Andrews (1992) tests, which allow structural breaks as an empirical method, and Gregory and Hansen (1996), a structural break cointegration test, was used. Empirical findings have shown that there is a long-term relationship between the variables. The Fully Modified Least Squares Method (FMOLS) estimator was used as the cointegration estimator. According to the cointegration estimation results, the increase in economic growth and energy price increases reduces energy intensity. However, higher industrialization leads to more intensive use of energy.

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M. (2015). A VARX modelling of energy intensity interactions between China, the United States, Japan and EU. OPEC Energy Review, 39(1), 103-124.
  • Akal, M. (2016a). Modeling world energy use efficiency, price, and GDP. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(10), 911-919.
  • Akal, M. (2016b). Modeling of energy intensity in Turkey. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(9), 807-814.
  • Antonietti, R., & Fontini, F. (2019). Does energy price affect energy efficiency? Cross-country panel evidence. Energy Policy, 129, 896-906.
  • Bashir, M. A., Sheng, B., Dogan, B., Sarwar, S., & Shahzad, U. (2020). Export product diversification and energy efficiency: Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 232-243.
  • Cermikli, A., & Tokatlioglu, İ. (2015). Yüksek ve orta gelirli ülkelerde teknolojik gelişmenin enerji yoğunluğu üzerindeki etkisi. Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(32), 1-22.
  • Desai, M. (1994). Greening of the HDI, New York, UNDP, Background Paper for Human Development Report.
  • Dogan B., Lorente, D. B., & Nasir, M. A. (2020). European commitment to COP21 and the role of energy consumption, FDI, trade and economic complexity in sustaining economic growth. Journal of Environmental Management, 273, 111146.
  • Ediger V.S., & Huvaz, O. (2006). Examining the sectoral energy use in Turkish economy (1980-2000) with the help of decomposition analysis. Energy Conversion and Management, 47(6), 732-745.
  • Ediger, V. S. (2009). Türkiye’nin Sürdürülebilir Enerji Gelişimi. TÜBA, Günce, 39, 18-25.
  • Ediger, V.S. Akar, S., & Ugurlu, B. (2006). Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3836-3846.
  • Ediger, V.S., & Tatlidil, H. (2006). Energy as an indicator of human development: A statistical approach. The Journal of Energy and Development, 31(2), 213- 232.
  • Fisher-Vanden, K., Jefferson, G. H., Jingkui, M., & Jianyi, X. (2006). Technology development and energy productivity in China. Energy Economics, 28(5-6), 690-705.
  • Galli, R. (1998). The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries. The Energy Journal, 19(4).
  • Greening, L.A., Davis, W.B., Schipper, L., & Khrushch, M. (1997). Comparison of six decomposition methods: application to aggregate energy intensity for manufacturing in 10 OECD countries. Energy Economics, 19, 375-390.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
  • Gurler, A. Z., Budak, D. B., Ayyildiz, B. ve Kaplan, U. E. (2020). Enerji Ekonomisi, Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Internatıonal Energy Agency (IEA), (2021). Data and statistics, Erişim adresi: www.iea.org. [Access Date: 06 June 2021].
  • Lise, W. (2006). Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey. Energy Policy, 34, 1841-1852.
  • Ma, C., & Stern, D.I. (2008). China’s changing energy intensity trend: a decomposition analysis. Energy Economics, 30(3), 1037-1053.
  • Nazlioglu, S. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri.
  • Neumayer, E. (2001). The human development index and sustainability-a constructive proposal. Ecological Economics, October 2001, 101-114.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
  • Phillips, P., & Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
  • Salim, R., Rafiq, S., Shafiei, S., & Yao, Y. (2019). Does urbanization increase pollutant emission and energy intensity? Evidence from some Asian developing economies. Applied economics, 51(36), 4008-4024.
  • Shahzad, U., Dogan, B., Sinha, A., & Fareed, Z. (2021). Does export product diversification help to reduce energy demand: exploring the contextual evidences from the newly industrialized countries. Energy, 214, 118881.
  • Tirasoglu, M., & Yildirim, B. (2012). Yapısal kırılma durumunda sağlık harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. Ejovoc (Electronic Journal of Vocational Colleges), 2(2), 111-117.
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). (1990). Human Development Report 1990, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Wang, Z., Jebli, M. B., Madaleno, M., Doğan, B., & Shahzad, U. (2021). Does export product quality and renewable energy induce carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from leading complex and renewable energy economies. Renewable Energy, 171, 360-370.
  • Yuan, C., Liu, S., & Wu, J. (2009). Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb–Douglas production function. Energy Policy, 37(8), 2842-2846.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.

Do Energy Prices and Industrialization Affect Energy Intensity? The Case of Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Yıl 2022, Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1, 275 - 294, 29.08.2022
https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1001739

Öz

Bu çalışmanın diğer çalışmalardan farkı, enerji talebinin yarısından fazlasını ithal ederek gerçekleştiren Türkiye’nin enerji yoğunluğunun araştırılmasıdır. Türkiye’de 2019 yılında kişi başı GSYİH 1968 yılına göre %347 artış göstermişken, buna paralel olarak kişi başı enerji tüketimi %324 oranında artış göstermiştir. Diğer bir ifadeyle, Türkiye’de enerjinin verimli kullanımı teknolojik gelişmelere rağmen halen büyük bir sorun olmaya devam etmektedir. Dolayısıyla enerji konusunda dışa bağımlı olan Türkiye’de enerji yoğunluğunun azaltılması önemli görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada Türkiye ekonomisinde 1968-2019 döneminde kişi başına düşen GSYİH, sanayileşme ve enerji fiyatları ile enerji yoğunluğu arasındaki ilişki araştırılmaktadır. Ampirk yöntem olarak yapısal kırılmalara izin veren Perron (1989) ve Zivot ve Andrews (1992) testleriyle birim kök süreç tespit edilmiş ve yapısal kırılmalı eşbütünleşme testi olan Gregory ve Hansen (1996) testi kullanılmıştır. Ampirik bulgular, değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin olduğunu göstermektedir. Eşbütünleşme tahmincisi olarak Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Yöntemi (FMOLS) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme tahmini sonuçlarına göre, ekonomik büyüme ve enerji fiyatlarındaki artışlar enerji yoğunluğunu azaltmaktadır. Ancak yüksek sanayileşme, daha yoğun enerji kullanımına yol açmaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Akal, M. (2015). A VARX modelling of energy intensity interactions between China, the United States, Japan and EU. OPEC Energy Review, 39(1), 103-124.
  • Akal, M. (2016a). Modeling world energy use efficiency, price, and GDP. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(10), 911-919.
  • Akal, M. (2016b). Modeling of energy intensity in Turkey. Energy Sources, Part B: Economics, Planning, and Policy, 11(9), 807-814.
  • Antonietti, R., & Fontini, F. (2019). Does energy price affect energy efficiency? Cross-country panel evidence. Energy Policy, 129, 896-906.
  • Bashir, M. A., Sheng, B., Dogan, B., Sarwar, S., & Shahzad, U. (2020). Export product diversification and energy efficiency: Empirical evidence from OECD countries. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 232-243.
  • Cermikli, A., & Tokatlioglu, İ. (2015). Yüksek ve orta gelirli ülkelerde teknolojik gelişmenin enerji yoğunluğu üzerindeki etkisi. Mustafa Kemal Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 12(32), 1-22.
  • Desai, M. (1994). Greening of the HDI, New York, UNDP, Background Paper for Human Development Report.
  • Dogan B., Lorente, D. B., & Nasir, M. A. (2020). European commitment to COP21 and the role of energy consumption, FDI, trade and economic complexity in sustaining economic growth. Journal of Environmental Management, 273, 111146.
  • Ediger V.S., & Huvaz, O. (2006). Examining the sectoral energy use in Turkish economy (1980-2000) with the help of decomposition analysis. Energy Conversion and Management, 47(6), 732-745.
  • Ediger, V. S. (2009). Türkiye’nin Sürdürülebilir Enerji Gelişimi. TÜBA, Günce, 39, 18-25.
  • Ediger, V.S. Akar, S., & Ugurlu, B. (2006). Forecasting production of fossil fuel sources in Turkey using a comparative regression and ARIMA model. Energy Policy, 34(18), 3836-3846.
  • Ediger, V.S., & Tatlidil, H. (2006). Energy as an indicator of human development: A statistical approach. The Journal of Energy and Development, 31(2), 213- 232.
  • Fisher-Vanden, K., Jefferson, G. H., Jingkui, M., & Jianyi, X. (2006). Technology development and energy productivity in China. Energy Economics, 28(5-6), 690-705.
  • Galli, R. (1998). The relationship between energy intensity and income levels: forecasting long term energy demand in Asian emerging countries. The Energy Journal, 19(4).
  • Greening, L.A., Davis, W.B., Schipper, L., & Khrushch, M. (1997). Comparison of six decomposition methods: application to aggregate energy intensity for manufacturing in 10 OECD countries. Energy Economics, 19, 375-390.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70, 99-126.
  • Gurler, A. Z., Budak, D. B., Ayyildiz, B. ve Kaplan, U. E. (2020). Enerji Ekonomisi, Nobel Akademik Yayıncılık, Ankara.
  • Internatıonal Energy Agency (IEA), (2021). Data and statistics, Erişim adresi: www.iea.org. [Access Date: 06 June 2021].
  • Lise, W. (2006). Decomposition of CO2 emissions over 1980-2003 in Turkey. Energy Policy, 34, 1841-1852.
  • Ma, C., & Stern, D.I. (2008). China’s changing energy intensity trend: a decomposition analysis. Energy Economics, 30(3), 1037-1053.
  • Nazlioglu, S. (2010). Makro İktisat Politikalarının Tarım Sektörü Üzerindeki Etkileri: Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler İçin Bir Karşılaştırma. Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, Kayseri.
  • Neumayer, E. (2001). The human development index and sustainability-a constructive proposal. Ecological Economics, October 2001, 101-114.
  • Perron, P. (1989). The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361-1401.
  • Phillips, P., & Hansen, B. (1990). Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I(1) processes. Review of Economic Studies, 57, 99-125.
  • Salim, R., Rafiq, S., Shafiei, S., & Yao, Y. (2019). Does urbanization increase pollutant emission and energy intensity? Evidence from some Asian developing economies. Applied economics, 51(36), 4008-4024.
  • Shahzad, U., Dogan, B., Sinha, A., & Fareed, Z. (2021). Does export product diversification help to reduce energy demand: exploring the contextual evidences from the newly industrialized countries. Energy, 214, 118881.
  • Tirasoglu, M., & Yildirim, B. (2012). Yapısal kırılma durumunda sağlık harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine bir uygulama. Ejovoc (Electronic Journal of Vocational Colleges), 2(2), 111-117.
  • UNDP (United Nations Development Programme). (1990). Human Development Report 1990, Oxford University Press, New York.
  • Wang, Z., Jebli, M. B., Madaleno, M., Doğan, B., & Shahzad, U. (2021). Does export product quality and renewable energy induce carbon dioxide emissions: evidence from leading complex and renewable energy economies. Renewable Energy, 171, 360-370.
  • Yuan, C., Liu, S., & Wu, J. (2009). Research on energy-saving effect of technological progress based on Cobb–Douglas production function. Energy Policy, 37(8), 2842-2846.
  • Zivot, E., & Andrews, D. (1992). Further evidence on the great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251-270.
Toplam 31 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Mustafa Naimoğlu 0000-0001-9684-159X

Sefa Özbek 0000-0002-1043-2056

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Ağustos 2022
Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Ağustos 2022
Gönderilme Tarihi 27 Eylül 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2022 Cilt: 6 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Naimoğlu, M., & Özbek, S. (2022). Do Energy Prices and Industrialization Affect Energy Intensity? The Case of Turkey Under Structural Breaks. Bingöl Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6(1), 275-294. https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1001739


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