Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2024,
Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1, 117 - 143
Öz
İnsanlık tarihi kadar eski olan pandemiler, toplum sağlığı üzerinde hastalık yapıcı ve ölümle sonuçlanan etkiler yaratırken; diğer taraftan da ülke ekonomileri üzerinde yıkıcı sonuçlar doğurmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, en az günümüz pandemisi kadar ölümcül sonuçları olduğu kabul edilen İspanyol Gribi, 21.yüzyıl Koronovirüs pandemisinin kısa ve uzun vadeli olası ekonomik etkilerinin değerlendirilmesi noktasında önemli bir projeksiyon sunmaktadır. İspanyol Gribi pandemisinin, I. Dünya Savaşı yıllarına tekabül etmesi gerek savaşa dahil olan ülkelerde halkın psikolojisini korumak gerekse de teknik yetersizlikler nedeni ile kapsamlı ve sağlıklı veriye erişim noktasında kısıtlar yaratmıştır. Ancak mevcut veriler ve çalışma bulguları İspanyol Gribi pandemisinin arz ve talep kaynaklı etkilerinin kısa vadeli sonuçlarına vurgu yapmıştır. Uzun vadeli etkiler daha ziyade düşük güven düzeyi, görece düşük beşeri sermaye yatırımları şeklinde sıralanmıştır. Ancak pandeminin kısa ve uzun vadeli etkileri ülkeler, bölgeler ve sektörler arasında son derece heterojen dağılmıştır. Ve pandeminin etkilerini hafifletmek üzere devlet müdahalesi kaçınılmaz olmuştur. Özellikle ilgili yıllar itibariyle Keynesyen ekol, hakim iktisadi görüş olmasa da ekonomide canlanma yaratacak kamusal harcamalar ve parasal genişleme politikaları önemli birer dengeleyici unsur olmuştur. Artan harcamaların yol açtığı kamu borç yükünün karşılanması noktasında ise devlete gelir yaratıcı ticaret politikaları bu dönemde başvurulan müdahale araçları olarak sıralanmıştır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
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- Boucekkine, R., Diene, B. & Azomahou, T. (2008). Growth economics of epidemics: a review of the theory. Mathematical Population Studies, 15, 1–26.
- Brainerd, E. & Siegler, M.V. (2003). The economic effects of the 1918 influenza epidemic, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Discussion Paper No. 3791.
- Burdekin, RCK. (2020). Economic and financial effects of the 1918-1919 spanish flu pandemic, Journal of Infectious Diseases & Therapy, 8(6).
- Carillo, M.F. & Jappelli, T. (2021). Pandemics and regional economic growth: evidence from the Great Influenza in Italy, European Review of Economic History, 26, 78–106.
- Chohan, U.W. (2022). The return of keynesianism? Exploring path dependency and ideational change in post-covid fiscal policy , Policy and Society, 41(1), 68–82.
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- Correia, S., Luck, S. & Verner, E. (2020). Fight the pandemic, save the economy: lessons from the 1918 flu, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics, https://l24.im/vG0k (9.11.2023)
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- Garrett, T. A. (2007). Economic effects of the 1918 influenza pandemic implications for a modern-day pandemic, federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis or the Federal Reserve System
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- Saul, T. (2023), Inside the swift, deadly history of the Spanish Flu pandemic, History Magazine, https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/history-magazine/article/history-spanish-flu-pandemic (23.10.2023)
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- Velde, F.R. (2022), What happened to the u.s. economy during the 1918 influenza pandemic? a view through high-frequency data, The Journal of Economic History, 82(1), 284-326.
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Toplam 43 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonometri (Diğer) |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makalesi |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 8 Ocak 2024 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 12 Mart 2024 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2024 Cilt: 16 Sayı: 1 |