Araştırma Makalesi
BibTex RIS Kaynak Göster

Analysis Of The Validity Of The J Curve Hypothesis For Turkey's Foreign Trade with The Balkans Using The Bootstrap Fourier AARDL Method

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 969 - 991, 06.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1241877

Öz

The aim of the study is to examine the validity of the J Curve Hypothesis in Turkey’s bilateral trade with 7 Balkan Countries by using monthly data for the period between 2000 and 2022 via Fourier time series analysis methods. The stationary levels of the series were investigated by Enders and Lee (2012) by using the Fourier ADF unit root test and Fourier Bootstrap AARDL method, which was developed by the studies of McNown et al. (2018), Sam et al. (2019), and Solarin (2019), was used for cointegration test and regression analysis. In the cointegration tests, it was found that there was no cointegration in Hungary, Macedonia, Serbia, and Bosnia and Herzegovina, cointegration was found in Bulgaria, Croatia, and Montenegro. In the regression analyses conducted for the last three countries, the increases in the real exchange rate disrupted the foreign trade balance of Turkey more against Bulgaria, Croatia, and Montenegro in the short term and improved against Bulgaria and Montenegro in the long term. Thus, it has been decided that the J Curve Hypothesis is valid in the foreign trade of Turkey-Bulgaria and Turkey-Montenegro.

Kaynakça

  • Aydın, M. (2020). Askeri Harcamalar, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kirliliği Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 261-275.
  • Backus, D. K. (1993). The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects. NEBER Working Paper, No. 4553.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 500–504.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1989). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs: Errata. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 553–4.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Pourheydarian, M. (1991) The Australian J-Curve: A Reexamination. International Economic Journal, 5, 49–58.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Alse, J. (1994) Short-Run Versus Longrun Effects of Devaluation: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration. Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), 453–464.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-Curve: A Literature Review. Applied Economics, 36, 1377–1398.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Aftab, M. (2017). Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Malaysia-Thailand 61 Industry Trade. Review of Development Economics, 21, 30–46.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Saha, S. (2017). Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach and Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners. Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1465-7287), 35(3), 472–483.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Harvey, H. (2019). A Nonlinear Approach to the U.S.–Australia Commodity Trade and The J-Curve: Evidence from 123 Industries. Australian Economic Papeprs, 58, 318–363.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Bose, N. and Zhang, Y. (2019). An Asymmetric Analysis of The J‐ Curve Effect in The Commodity Trade between China and The US. The World Economy, 42, 2854 - 2899.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Usman, A. and Ullah, S. (2020). Asymmetric J-Curve in The Industry Trade between Pakistan and United States: Evidence from 41 Industries. Eurasian Economic Review, 10(2), 163-188.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Nasir, M. A. (2020). Asymmetric Jcurve: Evidence from Industry Trade between U.S. and U.K. Applied Economics, 52(25), 2679-2693,
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Karamelikli, H. (2021). Asymmetric J‑Curve: Evidence from UK‑German Commodity Trade. Empirica, 48, 1029–1081.
  • Brissimis, S. N. and Leventakis, J. A. (1989) The Effectiveness of Devaluation: A General Equilibrium Assessment with Reference to Greece. Journal of Policy Modeling, 11(2), 247–271.
  • Chen, L.-L. and Devereux, J. (1994) Import Prices, Export Prices and The Current Account: An Asymmetry. Economic Letters, 44(4), 415–20.
  • Ceyhan T. ve Gürsoy S. (2021). The J-Curve hypothesis: an analysis for Turkey. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12(3), 1169-1181.
  • Chinn, M. D. (2008). Real Exchange Rates. In book: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Economicshelp (2018). J-Curve Effect. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/143448/econom ics/j-curve-effect/.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012). Makroekonomi Türkiye’den Örneklerle. (4. Basım). İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi,
  • Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2012). A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks. Oxford Bulletin Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599.
  • Eurostat (2022). Production in Industry. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/STS _INPR_A__custom_3075099/default/table?lang=en
  • EVDS (2022). Ödemeler Dengesi Analitik Sunum (6. El Kitabı) (Milyon ABD Doları) (Aylık). A. Cari İşlemler Hesabı (Milyon ABD Doları) – Düzey. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/ evds/serieMarket.
  • Flemingham, B. S. (1988) Where is the Australian J-curve? Bulletin of Economic Research, 40(1), 43–56.
  • Ghosh, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (2020). Current Account Deficits: Is There a Problem? https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/current.htm.
  • Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometric. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Grigoryan, G. (2015). The J-Curve Effect on the Trade Balance in Armenia. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3), 270-278.
  • Gupta-Kapoor, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (1999) Is There a J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan. International Economic Journal, 13, 71–79.
  • Güler, A. (2021). Reel Döviz Kuru Şoklarının İhracat ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye İçin NARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 950-970.
  • Himarios, D. (1985). The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance: A Critical View and Reexamination of Miles’s (New Results). Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 553–63.
  • Himarios, D. (1989). Do Devaluations Improve The Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited. Economic Enquiry, 27, 143–68.
  • IMF (2022a). Direction of The Statistics (DOTS). https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85.
  • IMF (2022b). Asia and Pasific Regional Economic Outlook (APDREO). https://data.imf.org/? sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • IMF (2022c). Consumer Prices Index (CPI). https://data.imf.org/?sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • Jongwanich, J. and Kohpaiboon, A. (2008). Export Performance, Foreign Ownership, and Trade Policy Regime: Evidence from Thai Manufacturing. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 140
  • Junz, H. B. and Rhomberg, R. R. (1973) Price-Competitiveness in Export Trade among Industrial Countries. American Economic Review, 63(2), 412–18.
  • Karadeloglou, P. (1990). On the Existence of an Inverse J-Curve. Greek Economic Review, 12(2), 285–305.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 389-402.
  • Küçüksoy, N. ve Akkoç, U. (2020). Türkiye ile Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 190-209.
  • Lerner, A. (1944). The Economics of Control. New York (USA), Macmillan.
  • Magee, S.P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 4(1), 303-325.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Makroekonomi. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi
  • Marshall A. (1929). Elements of Economics. London: MacMillan Co. Lmtd
  • McNown, R., Sam, C.Y. and Goh, S.K. (2018). Bootstrapping the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Test for Cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521
  • Miles, M. A. (1979) The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance and The Balance of Payments: Some New Results. Journal of Political Economy, 87(3), 600–620.
  • Pata, U. K. (2019). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Trade Openness in Turkey: Bootstrap ARDL Approach with a Structural Break. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 20264–20276.
  • Pata, U. K. And Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220.
  • Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Pfarrer, M. D. and Smith, K. G. (2005). Creative Destruction. In M. Hitt & D. Ireland (Eds.), The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Management. Entrepreneurship: 50-52. London: Blackwell.
  • Rose, A.K. and Yellen, J.L. (1989). Is There a J-Curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.
  • Sam, C.Y., McNown, R. and Goh, S.K. (2019). An Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test for Cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle. New Brunswick.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. (3rd ed). New York: Harper & Row, NY.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: “Econometric Methods and Applications”, eds. by R. Sickels and W. Horrace: 281-314.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2019). Modelling the Relationship between Financing by Islamic Banking System and Environmental Quality: Evidence from Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributive Lag with Fourier Terms. Quality & Quantity, 53, 2867–2884.
  • Strauss, J. (1995). Real Exchange Rates, PPP and the Relative Price of Nontraded Goods. Southern Economic Journal, 61(4), 991-1005.

Bootstrap Fourier AARDL Yöntemiyle J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Türkiye’nin Balkanlarla Dış Ticaretinde Geçerliliğinin Analizi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 969 - 991, 06.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1241877

Öz

Bu araştırmada Türkiye’nin 7 Balkan Ülkesiyle olan ikili ticaretinde J Eğrisi Hipotezinin geçerliliği, 2000-2022 dönemi aylık verileri kullanılarak, Fourier zaman serisi analizi yöntemiyle incelenmiştir. Serilerin durağanlık seviyeleri Enders ve Lee (2012) Fourier ADF birim kök testiyle araştırılmış, eşbütünleşme sınaması ve regresyon analizlerinde McNown vd. (2018), Sam vd. (2019) ve Solarin (2019) çalışmalarıyla geliştirilen Fourier Bootstrap AARDL yöntemiyle yapılmıştır. Eşbütünleşme testlerinde; Macaristan, Makedonya, Sırbistan ve Bosna-Hersek’te eşbütünleşme olmadığı görülürken, Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan ve Karadağ’da eşbütünleşme tespit edilmiştir. Son üç ülke için gerçekleştirilen analizlerde; reel döviz kurundaki artışların Türkiye’nin Bulgaristan, Hırvatistan ve Karadağ karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini kısa dönemde daha da bozduğu, uzun dönemdeyse Bulgaristan ve Karadağ karşısındaki dış ticaret dengesini iyileştirdiği saptanmıştır. Bu nedenle J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Türkiye – Bulgaristan ve Türkiye – Karadağ dış ticaretlerinde geçerli olduğuna karar verilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Aydın, M. (2020). Askeri Harcamalar, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kirliliği Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 261-275.
  • Backus, D. K. (1993). The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects. NEBER Working Paper, No. 4553.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 500–504.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1989). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs: Errata. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 553–4.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Pourheydarian, M. (1991) The Australian J-Curve: A Reexamination. International Economic Journal, 5, 49–58.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Alse, J. (1994) Short-Run Versus Longrun Effects of Devaluation: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration. Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), 453–464.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-Curve: A Literature Review. Applied Economics, 36, 1377–1398.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Aftab, M. (2017). Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Malaysia-Thailand 61 Industry Trade. Review of Development Economics, 21, 30–46.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Saha, S. (2017). Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach and Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners. Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1465-7287), 35(3), 472–483.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Harvey, H. (2019). A Nonlinear Approach to the U.S.–Australia Commodity Trade and The J-Curve: Evidence from 123 Industries. Australian Economic Papeprs, 58, 318–363.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Bose, N. and Zhang, Y. (2019). An Asymmetric Analysis of The J‐ Curve Effect in The Commodity Trade between China and The US. The World Economy, 42, 2854 - 2899.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Usman, A. and Ullah, S. (2020). Asymmetric J-Curve in The Industry Trade between Pakistan and United States: Evidence from 41 Industries. Eurasian Economic Review, 10(2), 163-188.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Nasir, M. A. (2020). Asymmetric Jcurve: Evidence from Industry Trade between U.S. and U.K. Applied Economics, 52(25), 2679-2693,
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Karamelikli, H. (2021). Asymmetric J‑Curve: Evidence from UK‑German Commodity Trade. Empirica, 48, 1029–1081.
  • Brissimis, S. N. and Leventakis, J. A. (1989) The Effectiveness of Devaluation: A General Equilibrium Assessment with Reference to Greece. Journal of Policy Modeling, 11(2), 247–271.
  • Chen, L.-L. and Devereux, J. (1994) Import Prices, Export Prices and The Current Account: An Asymmetry. Economic Letters, 44(4), 415–20.
  • Ceyhan T. ve Gürsoy S. (2021). The J-Curve hypothesis: an analysis for Turkey. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12(3), 1169-1181.
  • Chinn, M. D. (2008). Real Exchange Rates. In book: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Economicshelp (2018). J-Curve Effect. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/143448/econom ics/j-curve-effect/.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012). Makroekonomi Türkiye’den Örneklerle. (4. Basım). İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi,
  • Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2012). A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks. Oxford Bulletin Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599.
  • Eurostat (2022). Production in Industry. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/STS _INPR_A__custom_3075099/default/table?lang=en
  • EVDS (2022). Ödemeler Dengesi Analitik Sunum (6. El Kitabı) (Milyon ABD Doları) (Aylık). A. Cari İşlemler Hesabı (Milyon ABD Doları) – Düzey. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/ evds/serieMarket.
  • Flemingham, B. S. (1988) Where is the Australian J-curve? Bulletin of Economic Research, 40(1), 43–56.
  • Ghosh, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (2020). Current Account Deficits: Is There a Problem? https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/current.htm.
  • Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometric. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Grigoryan, G. (2015). The J-Curve Effect on the Trade Balance in Armenia. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3), 270-278.
  • Gupta-Kapoor, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (1999) Is There a J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan. International Economic Journal, 13, 71–79.
  • Güler, A. (2021). Reel Döviz Kuru Şoklarının İhracat ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye İçin NARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 950-970.
  • Himarios, D. (1985). The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance: A Critical View and Reexamination of Miles’s (New Results). Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 553–63.
  • Himarios, D. (1989). Do Devaluations Improve The Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited. Economic Enquiry, 27, 143–68.
  • IMF (2022a). Direction of The Statistics (DOTS). https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85.
  • IMF (2022b). Asia and Pasific Regional Economic Outlook (APDREO). https://data.imf.org/? sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • IMF (2022c). Consumer Prices Index (CPI). https://data.imf.org/?sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • Jongwanich, J. and Kohpaiboon, A. (2008). Export Performance, Foreign Ownership, and Trade Policy Regime: Evidence from Thai Manufacturing. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 140
  • Junz, H. B. and Rhomberg, R. R. (1973) Price-Competitiveness in Export Trade among Industrial Countries. American Economic Review, 63(2), 412–18.
  • Karadeloglou, P. (1990). On the Existence of an Inverse J-Curve. Greek Economic Review, 12(2), 285–305.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 389-402.
  • Küçüksoy, N. ve Akkoç, U. (2020). Türkiye ile Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 190-209.
  • Lerner, A. (1944). The Economics of Control. New York (USA), Macmillan.
  • Magee, S.P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 4(1), 303-325.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Makroekonomi. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi
  • Marshall A. (1929). Elements of Economics. London: MacMillan Co. Lmtd
  • McNown, R., Sam, C.Y. and Goh, S.K. (2018). Bootstrapping the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Test for Cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521
  • Miles, M. A. (1979) The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance and The Balance of Payments: Some New Results. Journal of Political Economy, 87(3), 600–620.
  • Pata, U. K. (2019). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Trade Openness in Turkey: Bootstrap ARDL Approach with a Structural Break. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 20264–20276.
  • Pata, U. K. And Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220.
  • Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Pfarrer, M. D. and Smith, K. G. (2005). Creative Destruction. In M. Hitt & D. Ireland (Eds.), The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Management. Entrepreneurship: 50-52. London: Blackwell.
  • Rose, A.K. and Yellen, J.L. (1989). Is There a J-Curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.
  • Sam, C.Y., McNown, R. and Goh, S.K. (2019). An Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test for Cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle. New Brunswick.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. (3rd ed). New York: Harper & Row, NY.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: “Econometric Methods and Applications”, eds. by R. Sickels and W. Horrace: 281-314.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2019). Modelling the Relationship between Financing by Islamic Banking System and Environmental Quality: Evidence from Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributive Lag with Fourier Terms. Quality & Quantity, 53, 2867–2884.
  • Strauss, J. (1995). Real Exchange Rates, PPP and the Relative Price of Nontraded Goods. Southern Economic Journal, 61(4), 991-1005.
Yıl 2023, Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4, 969 - 991, 06.12.2023
https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1241877

Öz

Kaynakça

  • Aydın, M. (2020). Askeri Harcamalar, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Çevre Kirliliği Arasındaki İlişki: Türkiye İçin Yapısal Kırılmalı Nedensellik Testinden Kanıtlar. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 261-275.
  • Backus, D. K. (1993). The Japanese Trade Balance: Recent History and Future Prospects. NEBER Working Paper, No. 4553.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1985). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67, 500–504.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. (1989). Devaluation and The J-curve: Some Evidence from LDCs: Errata. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 71, 553–4.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Pourheydarian, M. (1991) The Australian J-Curve: A Reexamination. International Economic Journal, 5, 49–58.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Alse, J. (1994) Short-Run Versus Longrun Effects of Devaluation: Error Correction Modeling and Cointegration. Eastern Economic Journal, 20(4), 453–464.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Ratha, A. (2004). The J-Curve: A Literature Review. Applied Economics, 36, 1377–1398.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Aftab, M. (2017). Asymmetric Effects of Exchange Rate Changes and the J-Curve: New Evidence from Malaysia-Thailand 61 Industry Trade. Review of Development Economics, 21, 30–46.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Saha, S. (2017). Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach and Bilateral J-Curve: India Versus Her Trading Partners. Contemporary Economic Policy (ISSN 1465-7287), 35(3), 472–483.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Harvey, H. (2019). A Nonlinear Approach to the U.S.–Australia Commodity Trade and The J-Curve: Evidence from 123 Industries. Australian Economic Papeprs, 58, 318–363.
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M., Bose, N. and Zhang, Y. (2019). An Asymmetric Analysis of The J‐ Curve Effect in The Commodity Trade between China and The US. The World Economy, 42, 2854 - 2899.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M., Usman, A. and Ullah, S. (2020). Asymmetric J-Curve in The Industry Trade between Pakistan and United States: Evidence from 41 Industries. Eurasian Economic Review, 10(2), 163-188.
  • Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Nasir, M. A. (2020). Asymmetric Jcurve: Evidence from Industry Trade between U.S. and U.K. Applied Economics, 52(25), 2679-2693,
  • Bahmani‐Oskooee, M. and Karamelikli, H. (2021). Asymmetric J‑Curve: Evidence from UK‑German Commodity Trade. Empirica, 48, 1029–1081.
  • Brissimis, S. N. and Leventakis, J. A. (1989) The Effectiveness of Devaluation: A General Equilibrium Assessment with Reference to Greece. Journal of Policy Modeling, 11(2), 247–271.
  • Chen, L.-L. and Devereux, J. (1994) Import Prices, Export Prices and The Current Account: An Asymmetry. Economic Letters, 44(4), 415–20.
  • Ceyhan T. ve Gürsoy S. (2021). The J-Curve hypothesis: an analysis for Turkey. Gümüşhane Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Elektronik Dergisi, 12(3), 1169-1181.
  • Chinn, M. D. (2008). Real Exchange Rates. In book: The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072.
  • Economicshelp (2018). J-Curve Effect. https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/143448/econom ics/j-curve-effect/.
  • Eğilmez, M. (2012). Makroekonomi Türkiye’den Örneklerle. (4. Basım). İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi,
  • Enders, W. and Lee, J. (2012). A Unit Root Test Using a Fourier Series to Approximate Smooth Breaks. Oxford Bulletin Economics and Statistics, 74(4), 574–599.
  • Eurostat (2022). Production in Industry. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/STS _INPR_A__custom_3075099/default/table?lang=en
  • EVDS (2022). Ödemeler Dengesi Analitik Sunum (6. El Kitabı) (Milyon ABD Doları) (Aylık). A. Cari İşlemler Hesabı (Milyon ABD Doları) – Düzey. https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/ evds/serieMarket.
  • Flemingham, B. S. (1988) Where is the Australian J-curve? Bulletin of Economic Research, 40(1), 43–56.
  • Ghosh, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (2020). Current Account Deficits: Is There a Problem? https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fandd/basics/current.htm.
  • Granger, C. and Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious Regressions in Econometric. Journal of Econometrics, 2, 111-120.
  • Grigoryan, G. (2015). The J-Curve Effect on the Trade Balance in Armenia. International Journal of Economics, Finance and Management Sciences, 3(3), 270-278.
  • Gupta-Kapoor, A. and Ramakrishnan, U. (1999) Is There a J-Curve? A New Estimation for Japan. International Economic Journal, 13, 71–79.
  • Güler, A. (2021). Reel Döviz Kuru Şoklarının İhracat ve Dış Ticaret Dengesi Üzerindeki Asimetrik Etkileri: Türkiye İçin NARDL Yaklaşımından Kanıtlar. MANAS Sosyal Araştırmalar Dergisi, 10(2), 950-970.
  • Himarios, D. (1985). The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance: A Critical View and Reexamination of Miles’s (New Results). Journal of International Money and Finance, 4, 553–63.
  • Himarios, D. (1989). Do Devaluations Improve The Trade Balance? The Evidence Revisited. Economic Enquiry, 27, 143–68.
  • IMF (2022a). Direction of The Statistics (DOTS). https://data.imf.org/?sk=9D6028D4-F14A-464C-A2F2-59B2CD424B85.
  • IMF (2022b). Asia and Pasific Regional Economic Outlook (APDREO). https://data.imf.org/? sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • IMF (2022c). Consumer Prices Index (CPI). https://data.imf.org/?sk=388DFA60-1D26-4ADE-B505-A05A558D9A42&sId=1479329132316.
  • Jongwanich, J. and Kohpaiboon, A. (2008). Export Performance, Foreign Ownership, and Trade Policy Regime: Evidence from Thai Manufacturing. ADB Economics Working Paper Series, No. 140
  • Junz, H. B. and Rhomberg, R. R. (1973) Price-Competitiveness in Export Trade among Industrial Countries. American Economic Review, 63(2), 412–18.
  • Karadeloglou, P. (1990). On the Existence of an Inverse J-Curve. Greek Economic Review, 12(2), 285–305.
  • Karamelikli, H. (2016). Türkiye’nin Dış Ticaret Dengesinde J-Eğrisi Etkisi. İnsan ve Toplum Bilimleri Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(3), 389-402.
  • Küçüksoy, N. ve Akkoç, U. (2020). Türkiye ile Çin İkili Ticaretinde J Eğrisi: NARDL Yaklaşımı. Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 5(2), 190-209.
  • Lerner, A. (1944). The Economics of Control. New York (USA), Macmillan.
  • Magee, S.P. (1973). Currency Contracts, Pass-Through, and Devaluation. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 4(1), 303-325.
  • Mankiw, N. G. (2014). Makroekonomi. Ankara: Efil Yayınevi
  • Marshall A. (1929). Elements of Economics. London: MacMillan Co. Lmtd
  • McNown, R., Sam, C.Y. and Goh, S.K. (2018). Bootstrapping the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Test for Cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521
  • Miles, M. A. (1979) The Effects of Devaluation on The Trade Balance and The Balance of Payments: Some New Results. Journal of Political Economy, 87(3), 600–620.
  • Pata, U. K. (2019). Environmental Kuznets Curve and Trade Openness in Turkey: Bootstrap ARDL Approach with a Structural Break. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 26, 20264–20276.
  • Pata, U. K. And Caglar, A. E. (2021). Investigating the EKC hypothesis with renewable energy consumption, human capital, globalization and trade openness for China: Evidence from augmented ARDL approach with a structural break. Energy, 216, 119220.
  • Pesaran, H. M., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Pfarrer, M. D. and Smith, K. G. (2005). Creative Destruction. In M. Hitt & D. Ireland (Eds.), The Blackwell Encyclopedia of Management. Entrepreneurship: 50-52. London: Blackwell.
  • Rose, A.K. and Yellen, J.L. (1989). Is There a J-Curve? Journal of Monetary Economics, 24(1), 53–68.
  • Sam, C.Y., McNown, R. and Goh, S.K. (2019). An Augmented Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test for Cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130–141.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1934). The Theory of Economic Development: An Inquiry into Profits, Capital, Credit, Interest, and the Business Cycle. New Brunswick.
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1942). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy. (3rd ed). New York: Harper & Row, NY.
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B. and Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework, Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: “Econometric Methods and Applications”, eds. by R. Sickels and W. Horrace: 281-314.
  • Solarin, S. A. (2019). Modelling the Relationship between Financing by Islamic Banking System and Environmental Quality: Evidence from Bootstrap Autoregressive Distributive Lag with Fourier Terms. Quality & Quantity, 53, 2867–2884.
  • Strauss, J. (1995). Real Exchange Rates, PPP and the Relative Price of Nontraded Goods. Southern Economic Journal, 61(4), 991-1005.
Toplam 57 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Oğuzhan Özçelik 0000-0001-6666-8976

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 16 Ekim 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 6 Aralık 2023
Gönderilme Tarihi 24 Ocak 2023
Kabul Tarihi 2 Ağustos 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 38 Sayı: 4

Kaynak Göster

APA Özçelik, O. (2023). Bootstrap Fourier AARDL Yöntemiyle J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Türkiye’nin Balkanlarla Dış Ticaretinde Geçerliliğinin Analizi. İzmir İktisat Dergisi, 38(4), 969-991. https://doi.org/10.24988/ije.1241877

İzmir İktisat Dergisi
TR-DİZİN, DOAJ, EBSCO, ERIH PLUS, Index Copernicus, Ulrich’s Periodicals Directory, EconLit, Harvard Hollis, Google Scholar, OAJI, SOBIAD, CiteFactor, OJOP, Araştırmax, WordCat, OpenAIRE, Base, IAD, Academindex
tarafından taranmaktadır.

Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Yayınevi Web Sitesi
https://kutuphane.deu.edu.tr/yayinevi/

Dergi İletişim Bilgileri Sayfası
https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ije/contacts


İZMİR İKTİSAT DERGİSİ 2022 yılı 37. cilt 1. sayı ile birlikte sadece elektronik olarak yayınlanmaya başlamıştır.