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THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 47 - 58, 11.01.2021

Şerafettin Keleş

https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05

Öz

In this study, the factors affecting the request and action of migration are examined with empirical method within the scope of neoclassical economic theories and behavioral economic thought. A survey of a selected sample was analyzed with structural equation modeling. There was a linear relationship between migration and economic expectation, social capital and hope. It was found that the Economic Expectation Variable had a very strong negative effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.99; t = -17.87). Hope variable has a very strong negative effect on individuals’ migration decision and desire to migrate (γ = -0.96; t = -13.66). The Social Capital Secret Variable has a negatively moderate effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.48; t = -8.19). It was seen that economic and political conjuncture was effective in the decision of migration of individuals.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Impact Hope Social Capital Behavioral Economics Migration

Kaynakça

  • ADLER, P. S., & KWON, S. W. (2002). Social Capital: Prospects For a New Concept. Academy of, 27(1), 17-40.
  • ALESİNA, A., & GIULIANO, P. (2011). Family Ties and Political Participation. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 817-839.
  • ALESİNA, A., ALGAN, Y., CAHUC, P., & GIULIANO, P. (2015). Family Values and The Regulation of Labor. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(4), 599-630.
  • ANONYMOUS. (2018a, Novenber 30). Provincial / District Centers and Town / Village Population, General Population Censuses by Years and Gender ADNKS,. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019b, December 15). Labor Force Statistics, August 2019 Newsletter. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019c, December 12). Agricultural Holdings Labour Wage Structure. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist. adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019d, December 15). Minimum wage. tuik: https://www.ailevecalisma.gov.tr/istatistikler/calisma-hayati-istatistikleri/asgari-ucret/asgari-ucret-2019/ adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019e, December 18). Migration, Net Migration and Net Migration Rate of Provinces, General Population Censuses - ABPRS. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • BALCIOĞLU, I. (2007). Migration in Social and Psychological Terms. Bilge Publishing.
  • BENTLER, P. M., & YUAN, K. H. (1999). Structural Equation Modeling With Small Samples: Test Statistics. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(2), 181-197.
  • BİÇKI, D. (2011). Buıldıng The Future in Cıty: Mıgratıon Trends in Canakkale Rural. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 16(3), 149-169.
  • BOURDIEU, P. (1989). Social Space and Symbolic Power. Sociological Theory,, 7(1), 14-25.
  • BOURDIEU, P., & WACQUANT, L. J. (1992). An invitation to Reflexive Sociology. Chicago: University of Chicago press.
  • CHEUNG, G. W., & RENSVOLD, R. B. (2002). Evaluating Goodness-of-fit Indexes for Testing Measurement invariance. Structural Equation Modeling, 9(2), 233-255.
  • COLEMAN, J. S. (1988). Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital. American Journal of Sociology (94), 95-120.
  • CRAWFORD, T. J. (1973). Beliefs About Birth Control: A Consistency Theory Analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53.
  • CZAIKA, M. (2015). Migration and Economic Prospects. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41(1), 58-82.
  • DAVID, Q. J. (2010). Local Social Capital and Geographical Mobility. Journal of Urban Economics, 68(2), 191-204.
  • DELLER, S., TSUNG-HSİU, T., MARCOUILLER, D.W., ENGLISH, D.B.K. (2001). The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life in Rural Economic Growth. Am. J. Agric. Econ, 352.
  • ESSES, V. M., HODSON, G., & DOVIDIO, J. F. (2003). Public Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: Determinants and Policy İmplications.
  • ESSES, V. M., JACKSON, L. M., & BENNETT-ABUAYYASH, C. (2010). Intergroup competition. The Sage Handbook of Prejudice, Stereotyping and Discrimination, 1, 225-240.
  • HAGEN‐ZANKER, J. (2008). Why Do People Migrate? A Review Of The Theoretical Literature. A Review Of The Theoretical Literature (January 2008). Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No.
  • HARRIS, J. R., & TODARO, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review, 60(1), 126-142.
  • HERSHBERGER, S. L. (2003). The Growth of Structural Equation Modeling: 1994-2001. Structural Equation Modeling, 10(1), 35-46.
  • HOTCHKISS, J. L., & RUPASINGHA, A. (2018). Individual Social Capital and Migration. Workıng Paper Serıes, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • HOYLE, R. (1995). Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, İssues, and Applications. I. R. (Ed.) içinde, The structural Equation Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.: Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, Issues and Applications.
  • ILHAN, M., & CETİN, B. (2014). Comparing the analysis Results Of The Structural Equation Models (SEM) Conducted Using
  • LISREL and AMOS. Journal Of Measurement and Evaluatıon In Educatıon and Psychology-Epod, 5(2), 26-42.
  • JÖRESKOG, K. G., & SÖRBOM, D. (1993). LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modeling with the SIMPLIS Command Language. Scientific Software International.
  • KAHN, J. H. (2006). Factor Analysis in Counseling Psychology Research, Training, and Practice: Principles, Advances, and Applications. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 684-718.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 363-391.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., KNETSCH, J. L., & THALER, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The Endowment effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • KAN, K. (2007). Residential Mobility and Social Capital. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(3), 436-457.
  • KATZ, E., & STARK, O. (1986). Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries. Journal of Labor Economics, 4(1), 134-149.
  • LEECH, N. L., BARRETT, K. C., MORGAN, G. A., CLAY, J. N., & QUICK, D. (2005). SPSS for Intermediate Statistics: Use and Interpretation. (N. L. Mahwah, Dü.)
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954). Economic Development With Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191.
  • LOMAX, R. G., & SCHUMACKER, R. E. (2004). A Beginner's Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. Psychology Press.
  • MABOGUNJE, A. L. (1970). Systems Approach to A Theory of Rural‐Urban Migration. Geographical Analysis, 2(1), 1-18.
  • MASSEY, D. S. (1990). Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration. Population Index, 3-26.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., & PELLEGRINO, A. (1999). Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Clarendon Press.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., PELLEGRİNO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCİ, A., PELLEGRINO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MERCER, J. (2005). Prospect theory and political science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 8, 1-21.
  • MİCHAELIDES, M. (2011). The effect of local ties, wages, and housing costs on migration decisions. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(2), 132-140.
  • NAROTZKY, S., & BESNIER, N. (2014). Crisis, Value, and Hope: Rethinking The Economy: An Introduction to Supplement 9. Current Anthropology, 55(9), 4-16.
  • OEHMKE, J. F., TSUKAMOTO, S., & POST, L. A. (2007). Can Health Care Services Attract Retirees and Contribute to The Economic Sustainability of Rural Places? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 36(1), 95-106.
  • PALLONI, A., MASSEY, D. S., CEBALLOS, M., ESPINOSA, K., & SPITTEL, M. (2001). Social Capital And İnternational Migration: A Test Using Information on Family Networks. American Journal of Sociology, 106(5), 1262-1298.
  • PEDHAZUR, E. J. (1997). Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research: Explanation and Prediction. Inc: New York, NY.: Thompson Learning.
  • PETERSEN, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
  • PITUCH, K. A., & STEVENS, J. P. (2009). Applied Multivariate Statistics For The Social Sciences. 21. New York and London: Routledge.
  • RANIS, G., & FEI, J. C. (1961). A Theory of Economic Development. The American economic review, 533-565.
  • RAYKOV, T., & MARCOULIDES, G. A. (2006). On Multilevel Model Reliability Estimation From The Perspective of Structural Equation Modeling. Structural Equation Modeling, 13(1), 130-141.
  • SAHOTA, G. S. (1968). An Economic Analysis of Internal Migration in Brazil. Journal of political economy, 66(2), 218-245.
  • SIMON, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford University Press.
  • SJAASTAD, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration. Journal of political Economy, 70(5,Part 2), 80-93.
  • SPILIMBERGO, A., & UBEDA, L. (2004). Family Attachment And The Decision to Move By Race. Journal of Urban Economics, 55(3). 478-497
  • TABACHNICK, B. G., FIDELL, L. S., & ULLMAN, J. B. (2007). Using Multivariate Statistics (Cilt Vol.5). Boston: MA: Pearson.
  • THALER, R. (1980). Toward A Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
  • TODARO, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration And Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. The American Economic review, 59(1), 138-148.
  • TVERSKY, A., & KAHNEMAN, D. (1991). Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1039-1061.
  • WESTON, R., & Gore Jr, P. A. (2006). A Brief Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 719-751.
  • YAMANE, T. (1967). Statistics: An ıntroductory Analysis. New York: Harper and Row.
  • ZAFER, A. (2016). The Concept of "Culture" As A Key For Mıgratıon Studıes. University Of Uludag / Journal of Social Sciences, Journal of Social Sciences, 19(30).

THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION

Yıl 2021, Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1, 47 - 58, 11.01.2021

Şerafettin Keleş

https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05

Öz

In this study, the factors affecting the request and action of migration are examined with empirical method within the scope of neoclassical economic theories and behavioral economic thought. A survey of a selected sample was analyzed with structural equation modeling. There was a linear relationship between migration and economic expectation, social capital and hope. It was found that the Economic Expectation Variable had a very strong negative effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.99; t = -17.87). Hope variable has a very strong negative effect on individuals’ migration decision and desire to migrate (γ = -0.96; t = -13.66). The Social Capital Secret Variable has a negatively moderate effect on individuals’ decision to immigrate and desire to migrate (γ = -0.48; t = -8.19). It was seen that economic and political conjuncture was effective in the decision of migration of individuals.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Economic Impact Hope Social Capital Behavioral Economics Migration

Kaynakça

  • ADLER, P. S., & KWON, S. W. (2002). Social Capital: Prospects For a New Concept. Academy of, 27(1), 17-40.
  • ALESİNA, A., & GIULIANO, P. (2011). Family Ties and Political Participation. Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(5), 817-839.
  • ALESİNA, A., ALGAN, Y., CAHUC, P., & GIULIANO, P. (2015). Family Values and The Regulation of Labor. Journal of the European Economic Association, 13(4), 599-630.
  • ANONYMOUS. (2018a, Novenber 30). Provincial / District Centers and Town / Village Population, General Population Censuses by Years and Gender ADNKS,. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019b, December 15). Labor Force Statistics, August 2019 Newsletter. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/PreTablo.do?alt_id=1007 adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019c, December 12). Agricultural Holdings Labour Wage Structure. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist. adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019d, December 15). Minimum wage. tuik: https://www.ailevecalisma.gov.tr/istatistikler/calisma-hayati-istatistikleri/asgari-ucret/asgari-ucret-2019/ adresinden alındı
  • ANONYMOUS. (2019e, December 18). Migration, Net Migration and Net Migration Rate of Provinces, General Population Censuses - ABPRS. tuik: http://www.tuik.gov.tr/UstMenu.do?metod=temelist adresinden alındı
  • BALCIOĞLU, I. (2007). Migration in Social and Psychological Terms. Bilge Publishing.
  • BENTLER, P. M., & YUAN, K. H. (1999). Structural Equation Modeling With Small Samples: Test Statistics. Multivariate Behavioral Research, 34(2), 181-197.
  • BİÇKI, D. (2011). Buıldıng The Future in Cıty: Mıgratıon Trends in Canakkale Rural. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of the Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 16(3), 149-169.
  • BOURDIEU, P. (1989). Social Space and Symbolic Power. Sociological Theory,, 7(1), 14-25.
  • BOURDIEU, P., & WACQUANT, L. J. (1992). An invitation to Reflexive Sociology. Chicago: University of Chicago press.
  • CHEUNG, G. W., & RENSVOLD, R. B. (2002). Evaluating Goodness-of-fit Indexes for Testing Measurement invariance. Structural Equation Modeling, 9(2), 233-255.
  • COLEMAN, J. S. (1988). Social Capital in the Creation of Human Capital. American Journal of Sociology (94), 95-120.
  • CRAWFORD, T. J. (1973). Beliefs About Birth Control: A Consistency Theory Analysis. Representative Research in Social Psychology, 4(1), 53.
  • CZAIKA, M. (2015). Migration and Economic Prospects. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies, 41(1), 58-82.
  • DAVID, Q. J. (2010). Local Social Capital and Geographical Mobility. Journal of Urban Economics, 68(2), 191-204.
  • DELLER, S., TSUNG-HSİU, T., MARCOUILLER, D.W., ENGLISH, D.B.K. (2001). The Role of Amenities and Quality of Life in Rural Economic Growth. Am. J. Agric. Econ, 352.
  • ESSES, V. M., HODSON, G., & DOVIDIO, J. F. (2003). Public Attitudes Toward Immigrants and Immigration: Determinants and Policy İmplications.
  • ESSES, V. M., JACKSON, L. M., & BENNETT-ABUAYYASH, C. (2010). Intergroup competition. The Sage Handbook of Prejudice, Stereotyping and Discrimination, 1, 225-240.
  • HAGEN‐ZANKER, J. (2008). Why Do People Migrate? A Review Of The Theoretical Literature. A Review Of The Theoretical Literature (January 2008). Maastrcht Graduate School of Governance Working Paper No.
  • HARRIS, J. R., & TODARO, M. P. (1970). Migration, Unemployment and Development: a two-sector analysis. The American economic review, 60(1), 126-142.
  • HERSHBERGER, S. L. (2003). The Growth of Structural Equation Modeling: 1994-2001. Structural Equation Modeling, 10(1), 35-46.
  • HOTCHKISS, J. L., & RUPASINGHA, A. (2018). Individual Social Capital and Migration. Workıng Paper Serıes, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  • HOYLE, R. (1995). Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, İssues, and Applications. I. R. (Ed.) içinde, The structural Equation Modeling Approach. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.: Structural Equation Modeling: Concepts, Issues and Applications.
  • ILHAN, M., & CETİN, B. (2014). Comparing the analysis Results Of The Structural Equation Models (SEM) Conducted Using
  • LISREL and AMOS. Journal Of Measurement and Evaluatıon In Educatıon and Psychology-Epod, 5(2), 26-42.
  • JÖRESKOG, K. G., & SÖRBOM, D. (1993). LISREL 8: Structural Equation Modeling with the SIMPLIS Command Language. Scientific Software International.
  • KAHN, J. H. (2006). Factor Analysis in Counseling Psychology Research, Training, and Practice: Principles, Advances, and Applications. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 684-718.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., & TVERSKY, A. (1979). Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk. Econometrica, 47(2), 363-391.
  • KAHNEMAN, D., KNETSCH, J. L., & THALER, R. H. (1991). Anomalies: The Endowment effect, Loss Aversion, and Status Quo Bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5(1), 193-206.
  • KAN, K. (2007). Residential Mobility and Social Capital. Journal of Urban Economics, 61(3), 436-457.
  • KATZ, E., & STARK, O. (1986). Labor Migration and Risk Aversion in Less Developed Countries. Journal of Labor Economics, 4(1), 134-149.
  • LEECH, N. L., BARRETT, K. C., MORGAN, G. A., CLAY, J. N., & QUICK, D. (2005). SPSS for Intermediate Statistics: Use and Interpretation. (N. L. Mahwah, Dü.)
  • LEWIS, W. A. (1954). Economic Development With Unlimited Supplies of Labour. The Manchester School, 22(2), 139-191.
  • LOMAX, R. G., & SCHUMACKER, R. E. (2004). A Beginner's Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. Psychology Press.
  • MABOGUNJE, A. L. (1970). Systems Approach to A Theory of Rural‐Urban Migration. Geographical Analysis, 2(1), 1-18.
  • MASSEY, D. S. (1990). Social Structure, Household Strategies, and the Cumulative Causation of Migration. Population Index, 3-26.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., & PELLEGRINO, A. (1999). Worlds in Motion: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium: Understanding International Migration at the End of the Millennium. Clarendon Press.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCI, A., PELLEGRİNO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MASSEY, D. S., ARANGO, J., HUGO, G., KOUAOUCİ, A., PELLEGRINO, A., & TAYLOR, J. E. (1993). Theories of International Migration: A Review and Appraisal. Population and Development Review, 19(3), 431-466.
  • MERCER, J. (2005). Prospect theory and political science. Annu. Rev. Polit. Sci., 8, 1-21.
  • MİCHAELIDES, M. (2011). The effect of local ties, wages, and housing costs on migration decisions. The Journal of Socio-Economics, 40(2), 132-140.
  • NAROTZKY, S., & BESNIER, N. (2014). Crisis, Value, and Hope: Rethinking The Economy: An Introduction to Supplement 9. Current Anthropology, 55(9), 4-16.
  • OEHMKE, J. F., TSUKAMOTO, S., & POST, L. A. (2007). Can Health Care Services Attract Retirees and Contribute to The Economic Sustainability of Rural Places? Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 36(1), 95-106.
  • PALLONI, A., MASSEY, D. S., CEBALLOS, M., ESPINOSA, K., & SPITTEL, M. (2001). Social Capital And İnternational Migration: A Test Using Information on Family Networks. American Journal of Sociology, 106(5), 1262-1298.
  • PEDHAZUR, E. J. (1997). Multiple Regression in Behavioral Research: Explanation and Prediction. Inc: New York, NY.: Thompson Learning.
  • PETERSEN, W. (1958). A general typology of migration. American Sociological Review, 23(3), 256-266.
  • PITUCH, K. A., & STEVENS, J. P. (2009). Applied Multivariate Statistics For The Social Sciences. 21. New York and London: Routledge.
  • RANIS, G., & FEI, J. C. (1961). A Theory of Economic Development. The American economic review, 533-565.
  • RAYKOV, T., & MARCOULIDES, G. A. (2006). On Multilevel Model Reliability Estimation From The Perspective of Structural Equation Modeling. Structural Equation Modeling, 13(1), 130-141.
  • SAHOTA, G. S. (1968). An Economic Analysis of Internal Migration in Brazil. Journal of political economy, 66(2), 218-245.
  • SIMON, H. A. (1983). Reason in Human Affairs. Stanford University Press.
  • SJAASTAD, L. A. (1962). The Costs and Returns of Human Migration. Journal of political Economy, 70(5,Part 2), 80-93.
  • SPILIMBERGO, A., & UBEDA, L. (2004). Family Attachment And The Decision to Move By Race. Journal of Urban Economics, 55(3). 478-497
  • TABACHNICK, B. G., FIDELL, L. S., & ULLMAN, J. B. (2007). Using Multivariate Statistics (Cilt Vol.5). Boston: MA: Pearson.
  • THALER, R. (1980). Toward A Positive Theory of Consumer Choice. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 1(1), 39-60.
  • TODARO, M. P. (1969). A Model of Labor Migration And Urban Unemployment in Less Developed Countries. The American Economic review, 59(1), 138-148.
  • TVERSKY, A., & KAHNEMAN, D. (1991). Loss Aversion in Riskless Choice: A Reference-Dependent Model. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(4), 1039-1061.
  • WESTON, R., & Gore Jr, P. A. (2006). A Brief Guide To Structural Equation Modeling. The Counseling Psychologist, 34(5), 719-751.
  • YAMANE, T. (1967). Statistics: An ıntroductory Analysis. New York: Harper and Row.
  • ZAFER, A. (2016). The Concept of "Culture" As A Key For Mıgratıon Studıes. University Of Uludag / Journal of Social Sciences, Journal of Social Sciences, 19(30).
Toplam 63 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Ekonomi
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Şerafettin Keleş 0000-0002-5147-0825

Yayımlanma Tarihi 11 Ocak 2021
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021 Cilt: 8 Sayı: 1

Kaynak Göster

APA Keleş, Ş. (2021). THE IMPACT OF ECONOMIC EXPECTATION, SOCIAL CAPITAL AND HOPE ON MIGRATION REQUEST AND ACTION. Journal of Life Economics, 8(1), 47-58. https://doi.org/10.15637/jlecon.8.1.05
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