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Türkiye’de Tarım ve Sanayi Sektörlerindeki Gelişmelerin Ekonomik Büyümeye Etkisi: ARDL Yaklaşımı

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 74, 104 - 129

Duygu Çelik Atilla Aydın

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1323245

Öz

Dünyadaki toplumların en eski iktisadi hedeflerinden biri toplumun refah düzeyini arttırmaktır. Bu nedenle tarihten bu yana ekonomik büyüme olgusu üzerinde en fazla çalışan konulardan biri olmuştur. Bu çalışmada 1980 İle 2022 yılları arasında Türkiye’nin tarım ve sanayi sektörlerindeki üretimin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi araştırılmıştır. Ayrıca kontrol değişkenler olarak enflasyon ve dış ticaret açığı verileri çalışmaya eklenmiştir. Çalışmada ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucuna göre birinci modelde GSMH içindeki tarım sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kişi başına gelir yaklaşık %1,13 kadar azalmaktadır. Enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik artış ise kişi başına geliri yaklaşık %0,18 düşürmektedir. İkinci modelde ise GSMH içindeki sanayi sektörünün payının kişi başına gelir üzerindeki etkisi pozitiftir. Enflasyon oranı kişi başına gelir üzerinde negatif etkiye sahiptir. Sanayi sektörünün payı %1 arttığında kişi başına gelir yaklaşık %4,5 yükselmektedir. Buna ilaveten enflasyon oranındaki %1’lik artış ise kişi başına geliri yaklaşık %0,5 azaltmaktadır. Son olarak dış ticaret açığına ilişkin parametreler ise istatistiksel olarak anlamsız bulunmuştur.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Tarım Sanayi Ekonomik Büyüme Dış Ticaret Enflasyon

Kaynakça

  • Awan, A. G., & Aslam, A. (2015). Impact of agriculture productivity on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 1(1), 57-71.
  • Banelienė, R. (2021). Industry impact on GDP growth in developed countries under R&D investment conditions. Journal of Small Business Strategy, 31(1), 66-80.
  • Beylik, U., Cirakli, U., Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Senol, O. (2022). The relationship between health expenditure indicators and economic growth in OECD countries: A Driscoll-Kraay approach. Frontiers in Public Health, 10, 1050550.
  • Breusch, T.S. (1978), Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models, Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334-355
  • Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A. (1979), A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation, Econometrica, 47, 1287-1294
  • Brown, R., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. (1975), Techniques for testing the costancy of regression relationships over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 37, 149-224
  • Cetin, M. (2017). Does government size affect economic growth in developing countries? Evidence from Non-stationary Panel Data. European Journal of Economic Studies, 6(2), 85-95.
  • Çetin, M., & Ecevit, E. (2010). Sağlik Harcamalarinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Oecd Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Regresyon Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(2), 166-182.
  • Cetin, M., & Ecevit, E. (2018). The dynamic causal links between energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth: time series evidence from upper middle income countries. European Journal of Economic Studies, 7(2), 58-68.
  • Cetin, M., Gunaydın, D., Cavlak, H., & Topcu, B. (2015). Unemployment and its impact on economic growth in the European Union: An evidence from panel data analysis. In Regional economic integration and the global financial system (pp. 12-22). IGI Global.
  • Çetin, M., & Seker, F. (2012). Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 85-106.
  • Çil, N. (2018), Finansal ekonometri. Der Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979), Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  • Dickey D.A. & Fuller W.A.(1981), Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), ss.1057 1072.
  • Doğan, A. (2009). Ekonomik Gelişme Sürecine Tarımın Katkısı: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(17), 365-392.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. Third Edition, Wiley, New York
  • Engle, R.F. & Granger,C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251‐76.
  • Godfrey, L. (1978), Testing for multiplicative heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 8, 227-236
  • Godfrey, L. (1978), Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models When the regressor includes lagged dependent variables, Econometrica, 46, 1293-1302
  • Gökçen, A. M. (2020), "Cumhuriyetten günümüze Türkiye’de iktisat politikaları ve ekonomik gelişme. M. Zencirkıran (Der.)." Dünden bugüne Türkiye’nin toplumsal yapısı, 191-220.
  • Idisi, P. O., Ebukiba, E. S., & Sunday, G. A. (2019). The Impact Of Agrıcultural Sector On The Economıc Growth In Nıgerıa (2008-2017). International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations ISSN 2348-7585 (Online), Vol. 7, Issue 1, pp: (61-69).
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231–254.
  • Karami, M., Elahinia, N., & Karami, S. (2019). The effect of manufacturing value added on economic growth: Emprical evidence from Europe. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 8(2), 133-147.
  • Kopuk, E., & MEÇİK, O. (2020). Türkiye’de imalat sanayi ve tarım sektörlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: 1998-2020 dönemi analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 27(2), 263-274.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M.C. (2003), Minimum lagrange multiplier. Unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (4), 1082-1089.
  • Liang, X. (2019). Study on the impact of industrial structure on GDP and economic growth in China based on multiple regression. In 2019 4th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2019) (pp. 350-354). Atlantis Press.
  • Lugina, E. J., Mwakalobo, A. B. S., & Lwesya, F. (2022). Effects of industrialization on Tanzania’s economic growth: a case of manufacturing sector. Future Business Journal, 8(1), 1-11. Merkez Bankası. (2023). Erişim Adresi: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket/collapse_21/6004/DataGroup/turkish/bie_gsyhifkhe/
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica 57:1361-1401.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1995) An autoregressive distributed lag modelling Approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly, A. Diamond (eds), Centennial Volume of RagnerFrisch, Cambridge UniversityPress
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp.289- 326.
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the united kingdom, 1861–1957, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November
  • Phillips, P.C. & Perron, P. (1988), Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), ss.335 346. Ou, K. A. (2015). The effect of industrial development on economic growth (an empirical evidence in Nigeria 1973–2013). Eur. J. Bus. Soc. Sci, 4(02), 127-140.
  • Qaiser, S. (2020). Relationship Between Industrialization and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Pakistan. International Journal of Management, Accounting & Economics, 7(12).
  • Ramsey, J.B. (1969), Tests for specification errors in classical linear least squares regression analysis, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 31, 350-371.
  • Sari Hassoun, S. E., & Mouzarine, A. (2019). The Impact of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth in MENA Countries: A Panel Econometric Approach. Knowledge of Aggregates Magazine 5 (2).
  • Sertoglu, K., Ugural, S., & Bekun, F. V. (2017). The contribution of agricultural sector on economic growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 547-552
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Seker, F., Cetin, M., Topcu, B., & Seren, G. Y. (2015). Relationships between financial development, trade openness, and economic growth: Empirical evidence for Turkey. In Regional economic integration and the global financial system (pp. 183-196). IGI Global.
  • Terin, M., Aksoy, A., & Güler, İ. O. (2013). Tarımsal Büyümeye Etki Eden Ekonomik Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Journal of the Institute of Science & Technology/Fen Bilimleri Estitüsü Dergisi, 3(3).
  • TÜİK (2022), Yıllara Göre Dış Ticaret, Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Dis-Ticaret-104
  • TÜİK. (2023). Erişim Adresi: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Yillik-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2021-45834 TÜİK (2023), Uluslararası Seçilmiş Göstergeler, Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/secilmisgostergeler/
  • WB (2023), Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
  • Yalçınkaya, H. (2018). Tarım Kredilerinin Ekonomiye Olan Etkisinin Granger Nedensellik Analizi ile Tespiti. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 13(1), 51-61.
  • Yi, Y. (2021). The relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in China—an empirical study based on panel data. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 275, p. 01009). EDP Sciences.

The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach

Yıl 2024, Cilt: 19 Sayı: 74, 104 - 129

Duygu Çelik Atilla Aydın

https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1323245

Öz

One of the oldest economic goals of societies around the world is to increase the welfare level of the society. For this reason, the phenomenon of economic growth has been one of the most studied subjects since history. In this work, the efficacy of production in Turkey's agricultural and industrial sectors on economic growth amongst 1980 and 2022 has been investigated. In addition, inflation and trade deficit data are included as control variables. ARDL bounds test was implemented in the work. Accordingly the outcomes of the work, in the first model, when the share of the agricultural sector in GNP increases by 1%, per capita income decreases by approximately 1.13%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.18%. In the second model, the margin of the industrial sector in GNP has an affirmative efficacy on per capita income. The inflation rate, conversely, has a negatory efficacy on per capita income. When the share of the industrial sector increases by 1%, per capita income increases by approximately 4.5%. A 1% increment in the inflation rate diminishes per capita income by approximately 0.5%. The parameters related to international trade deficit are statistically insignificant.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Agriculture Industry Economic Growth International Trade Inflation

Kaynakça

  • Awan, A. G., & Aslam, A. (2015). Impact of agriculture productivity on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Social Sciences, 1(1), 57-71.
  • Banelienė, R. (2021). Industry impact on GDP growth in developed countries under R&D investment conditions. Journal of Small Business Strategy, 31(1), 66-80.
  • Beylik, U., Cirakli, U., Cetin, M., Ecevit, E., & Senol, O. (2022). The relationship between health expenditure indicators and economic growth in OECD countries: A Driscoll-Kraay approach. Frontiers in Public Health, 10, 1050550.
  • Breusch, T.S. (1978), Testing for autocorrelation in dynamic linear models, Australian Economic Papers, 17, 334-355
  • Breusch, T.S. & Pagan, A. (1979), A simple test for heteroscedasticity and random coefficient variation, Econometrica, 47, 1287-1294
  • Brown, R., Durbin, J. & Evans, J. (1975), Techniques for testing the costancy of regression relationships over time, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 37, 149-224
  • Cetin, M. (2017). Does government size affect economic growth in developing countries? Evidence from Non-stationary Panel Data. European Journal of Economic Studies, 6(2), 85-95.
  • Çetin, M., & Ecevit, E. (2010). Sağlik Harcamalarinin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkisi: Oecd Ülkeleri Üzerine Bir Panel Regresyon Analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 11(2), 166-182.
  • Cetin, M., & Ecevit, E. (2018). The dynamic causal links between energy consumption, trade openness and economic growth: time series evidence from upper middle income countries. European Journal of Economic Studies, 7(2), 58-68.
  • Cetin, M., Gunaydın, D., Cavlak, H., & Topcu, B. (2015). Unemployment and its impact on economic growth in the European Union: An evidence from panel data analysis. In Regional economic integration and the global financial system (pp. 12-22). IGI Global.
  • Çetin, M., & Seker, F. (2012). Enerji tüketiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Uludağ Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(1), 85-106.
  • Çil, N. (2018), Finansal ekonometri. Der Yayınları, İstanbul
  • Dickey, D. A. & Fuller, W. A. (1979), Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431.
  • Dickey D.A. & Fuller W.A.(1981), Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), ss.1057 1072.
  • Doğan, A. (2009). Ekonomik Gelişme Sürecine Tarımın Katkısı: Türkiye Örneği. Sosyal Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 9(17), 365-392.
  • Enders, W. (2010). Applied econometric time series. Third Edition, Wiley, New York
  • Engle, R.F. & Granger,C.W.J. (1987). Cointegration and error correction: Representation, estimation and testing. Econometrica, 55, 251‐76.
  • Godfrey, L. (1978), Testing for multiplicative heteroscedasticity, Journal of Econometrics, 8, 227-236
  • Godfrey, L. (1978), Testing against general autoregressive and moving average error models When the regressor includes lagged dependent variables, Econometrica, 46, 1293-1302
  • Gökçen, A. M. (2020), "Cumhuriyetten günümüze Türkiye’de iktisat politikaları ve ekonomik gelişme. M. Zencirkıran (Der.)." Dünden bugüne Türkiye’nin toplumsal yapısı, 191-220.
  • Idisi, P. O., Ebukiba, E. S., & Sunday, G. A. (2019). The Impact Of Agrıcultural Sector On The Economıc Growth In Nıgerıa (2008-2017). International Journal of Management and Commerce Innovations ISSN 2348-7585 (Online), Vol. 7, Issue 1, pp: (61-69).
  • Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors. Journal of Economics Dynamic and Control, 12(2-3), 231–254.
  • Karami, M., Elahinia, N., & Karami, S. (2019). The effect of manufacturing value added on economic growth: Emprical evidence from Europe. Journal of Business Economics and Finance, 8(2), 133-147.
  • Kopuk, E., & MEÇİK, O. (2020). Türkiye’de imalat sanayi ve tarım sektörlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkisi: 1998-2020 dönemi analizi. Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 27(2), 263-274.
  • Lee, J. & Strazicich, M.C. (2003), Minimum lagrange multiplier. Unit root test with two structural breaks. The Review of Economics and Statistics 85 (4), 1082-1089.
  • Liang, X. (2019). Study on the impact of industrial structure on GDP and economic growth in China based on multiple regression. In 2019 4th International Conference on Financial Innovation and Economic Development (ICFIED 2019) (pp. 350-354). Atlantis Press.
  • Lugina, E. J., Mwakalobo, A. B. S., & Lwesya, F. (2022). Effects of industrialization on Tanzania’s economic growth: a case of manufacturing sector. Future Business Journal, 8(1), 1-11. Merkez Bankası. (2023). Erişim Adresi: https://evds2.tcmb.gov.tr/index.php?/evds/serieMarket/collapse_21/6004/DataGroup/turkish/bie_gsyhifkhe/
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock, and The Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica 57:1361-1401.
  • Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. (1995) An autoregressive distributed lag modelling Approach to cointegration analysis. In S. Strom, A. Holly, A. Diamond (eds), Centennial Volume of RagnerFrisch, Cambridge UniversityPress
  • Pesaran, M.H., Shin, Y. & Smith, R.J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16, pp.289- 326.
  • Phillips, A. W. (1958). The relation between unemployment and the rate of change of money wage rates in the united kingdom, 1861–1957, Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 25(100), pages 283-299, November
  • Phillips, P.C. & Perron, P. (1988), Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), ss.335 346. Ou, K. A. (2015). The effect of industrial development on economic growth (an empirical evidence in Nigeria 1973–2013). Eur. J. Bus. Soc. Sci, 4(02), 127-140.
  • Qaiser, S. (2020). Relationship Between Industrialization and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study of Pakistan. International Journal of Management, Accounting & Economics, 7(12).
  • Ramsey, J.B. (1969), Tests for specification errors in classical linear least squares regression analysis, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 31, 350-371.
  • Sari Hassoun, S. E., & Mouzarine, A. (2019). The Impact of Agricultural Sector on Economic Growth in MENA Countries: A Panel Econometric Approach. Knowledge of Aggregates Magazine 5 (2).
  • Sertoglu, K., Ugural, S., & Bekun, F. V. (2017). The contribution of agricultural sector on economic growth of Nigeria. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 7(1), 547-552
  • Solow, R. M. (1956). A contribution to the theory of economic growth. The quarterly journal of economics, 70(1), 65-94.
  • Seker, F., Cetin, M., Topcu, B., & Seren, G. Y. (2015). Relationships between financial development, trade openness, and economic growth: Empirical evidence for Turkey. In Regional economic integration and the global financial system (pp. 183-196). IGI Global.
  • Terin, M., Aksoy, A., & Güler, İ. O. (2013). Tarımsal Büyümeye Etki Eden Ekonomik Faktörlerin Belirlenmesi Üzerine Bir Çalışma. Journal of the Institute of Science & Technology/Fen Bilimleri Estitüsü Dergisi, 3(3).
  • TÜİK (2022), Yıllara Göre Dış Ticaret, Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=Dis-Ticaret-104
  • TÜİK. (2023). Erişim Adresi: https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Yillik-Gayrisafi-Yurt-Ici-Hasila-2021-45834 TÜİK (2023), Uluslararası Seçilmiş Göstergeler, Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://biruni.tuik.gov.tr/secilmisgostergeler/
  • WB (2023), Inflation, consumer prices (annual %), Erişim Tarihi: 20 Şubat 2023, https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG
  • Yalçınkaya, H. (2018). Tarım Kredilerinin Ekonomiye Olan Etkisinin Granger Nedensellik Analizi ile Tespiti. Bilgi Ekonomisi ve Yönetimi Dergisi, 13(1), 51-61.
  • Yi, Y. (2021). The relationship between industrial structure and economic growth in China—an empirical study based on panel data. In E3S Web of Conferences (Vol. 275, p. 01009). EDP Sciences.
Toplam 44 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Büyüme, Enflasyon
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Duygu Çelik 0000-0003-3298-2152

Atilla Aydın 0000-0002-9265-5930

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 27 Nisan 2024
Yayımlanma Tarihi
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2024 Cilt: 19 Sayı: 74

Kaynak Göster

APA Çelik, D., & Aydın, A. (2024). The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, 19(74), 104-129. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1323245
AMA Çelik D, Aydın A. The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. Nisan 2024;19(74):104-129. doi:10.19168/jyasar.1323245
Chicago Çelik, Duygu, ve Atilla Aydın. “The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 19, sy. 74 (Nisan 2024): 104-29. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1323245.
EndNote Çelik D, Aydın A (01 Nisan 2024) The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 19 74 104–129.
IEEE D. Çelik ve A. Aydın, “The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach”, Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 19, sy. 74, ss. 104–129, 2024, doi: 10.19168/jyasar.1323245.
ISNAD Çelik, Duygu - Aydın, Atilla. “The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi 19/74 (Nisan 2024), 104-129. https://doi.org/10.19168/jyasar.1323245.
JAMA Çelik D, Aydın A. The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2024;19:104–129.
MLA Çelik, Duygu ve Atilla Aydın. “The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach”. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi, c. 19, sy. 74, 2024, ss. 104-29, doi:10.19168/jyasar.1323245.
Vancouver Çelik D, Aydın A. The Efficacy of Developments in Agriculture and Industry Sectors on Economic Growth in Turkey: ARDL Approach. Yaşar Üniversitesi E-Dergisi. 2024;19(74):104-29.
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