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First Period Effect of Covid-19 on International Aviation Tourism

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45, 808 - 825, 29.12.2023

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu Murat Emikönel Muhammet Rıdvan İnce

Öz

The rapid spread of the coronavirus pandemic on a global scale has led to international travel restrictions and significantly affected the aviation and tourism sectors, leading to job losses. Considering this situation, this study examines the change in international air transportation and tourism sectors during the pandemic period and constructs a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model based on data from 38 countries. According to the findings of the study, the number of coronavirus cases is statistically significant in regimes 2, 3 and 4, and when the number of coronavirus cases increases by one unit, the number of flights in these regimes increases by 0.03, 0.01 and 0.02 units, respectively. The number of coronavirus deaths is statistically significant in regimes 2, 4 and 5, and when the number of coronavirus deaths increases by one unit, the number of flights in these regimes decreases by 1.26, 2.20 and 2.52 units, respectively.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Coronavirus Aviation Tourism Economic Crisis

Kaynakça

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  • Akca, M. (2020). Covid-19’un Havacılık Sektörüne Etkisi, Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(5), 45-64.
  • Albers, S., and Rundshagen, V. (2020). European Airlines0 Strategic Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic (January-May, 2020). Journal of Air Transport Management (87), 1-7.
  • Andreana, G., Gualini, A., Martini, G., Porta, F., and Scotti, D. (2021). The Disruptive Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transportation: An ITS Econometric Analysis. Research in Transportation Economics (90), 1- 17.
  • Bahar, O., İlal, N.Ç. (2020). Coronavirüsün (Covid-19) Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Ekonomik Etkileri, International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 6(1), 125-139.
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  • Beirman, D. (2003). Restoring Tourism Destinations in Crisis: A Strategic Marketing Approach, Riding the Wave of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 1146.
  • Budd, L., Ison, S., and Adrienne, N. (2020). European Airline Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic – Contraction, Consolidation and Future Considerations for Airline Business and Management. Research in Transportation Business and Management (37), 1-6.
  • Bulchand-Gidumal, j., and Melián-González, s. (2021). Post-COVID-19 Behavior Change in Purchase of Air Tickets. Annals of Tourism Research (87), 1-5.
  • Business Insider. (2020). UK Airline Flybe Declares Bankruptcy as Coronavirus Dooms the Already Struggling Carrier. Retrieved March 31, 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-airline-flybe- declares-bankruptcy-flights-grounded-2020-3?r=DEandIR=T
  • Carter, D., Mazumder, S., Simkins, B., and Sisneros, E. (2022). The Stock Price Reaction of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Airline, Hotel, and Tourism Industries.Finance Research Letters(44), 1-15.
  • Chinazzi, M., Davis, J., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinona, M., Merler, S., Vespignani, A. (2020). The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak. Science, 1, 1-11.
  • Chinazzi, M., Davis, J., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., Pastore y Piontti, A., Rossi, L., Sun, K., Viboud, C., Xiong, X., Yu, H., Halloran, M.E., Longini Jr, M. and Vespignani, A. (2020) The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak, The Preprint Server for Health Sciences, BMJ Yale,
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  • Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., and Webster, S. (2020). Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19. Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, 31.
  • Haleem, A., Javaid, M. ve Vaishya, R. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic in Daily Life. Current Medicine Research and Practice. Doi: 10.1016/j.cmrp.2020.03.011
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Uluslararası Havacılık Turizminde Covid-19 İlk Dönem Etkisi

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45, 808 - 825, 29.12.2023

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu Murat Emikönel Muhammet Rıdvan İnce

Öz

Koronavirüs salgınının küresel ölçekte çok hızlı bir şekilde yayılması uluslararası seyahat kısıtlamalarını beraberinde getirmiş ve havacılık ve turizm sektörlerini önemli ölçüde etkileyerek iş kayıplarına yol açmıştır. Bu durum göz önünde bulundurularak, çalışmada, pandemi döneminde uluslararası hava taşımacılığındaki ve turizm sektöründeki değişim incelenmiş olup 38 ülke verisi kapsamında eşik otoregresif (TAR) modeli kurulmuştur. Çalışmadan elde edilen bulgulara göre, koronavirüs vaka sayısı 2., 3. ve 4. rejimlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olup, koronavirüs vaka sayısı bir birim arttığında bu rejimlerde uçuş sayısı sırasıyla 0,03, 0,01 ve 0,02 birim artmaktadır. Koronavirüs ölüm sayısı 2., 4. ve 5. rejimlerde istatistiksel olarak anlamlıdır ve koronavirüs ölüm sayısı bir birim arttığında, bu rejimlerde uçuş sayıları sırasıyla 1,26, 2,20 ve 2,52 birim azalmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Koronavirüs Turizm Ekonomik Kriz Havacılık

Kaynakça

  • ACI (2020a) The impact of COVID-19 on the Airport Business: Preliminary Assessment, ACI Report, 1-25.
  • Akca, M. (2020). Covid-19’un Havacılık Sektörüne Etkisi, Avrasya Sosyal ve Ekonomi Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(5), 45-64.
  • Albers, S., and Rundshagen, V. (2020). European Airlines0 Strategic Responses to the COVID-19 Pandemic (January-May, 2020). Journal of Air Transport Management (87), 1-7.
  • Andreana, G., Gualini, A., Martini, G., Porta, F., and Scotti, D. (2021). The Disruptive Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transportation: An ITS Econometric Analysis. Research in Transportation Economics (90), 1- 17.
  • Bahar, O., İlal, N.Ç. (2020). Coronavirüsün (Covid-19) Turizm Sektörü Üzerindeki Ekonomik Etkileri, International Journal of Social Sciences and Education Research, 6(1), 125-139.
  • BBC News (2020b) Virus 'Could Cost Millions of Tourism Jobs', Retrieved from: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-51852505 [Access on January 1, 2021]
  • Beirman, D. (2003). Restoring Tourism Destinations in Crisis: A Strategic Marketing Approach, Riding the Wave of Tourism and Hospitality Research, 1146.
  • Budd, L., Ison, S., and Adrienne, N. (2020). European Airline Response to the COVID-19 Pandemic – Contraction, Consolidation and Future Considerations for Airline Business and Management. Research in Transportation Business and Management (37), 1-6.
  • Bulchand-Gidumal, j., and Melián-González, s. (2021). Post-COVID-19 Behavior Change in Purchase of Air Tickets. Annals of Tourism Research (87), 1-5.
  • Business Insider. (2020). UK Airline Flybe Declares Bankruptcy as Coronavirus Dooms the Already Struggling Carrier. Retrieved March 31, 2020, from https://www.businessinsider.com/uk-airline-flybe- declares-bankruptcy-flights-grounded-2020-3?r=DEandIR=T
  • Carter, D., Mazumder, S., Simkins, B., and Sisneros, E. (2022). The Stock Price Reaction of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Airline, Hotel, and Tourism Industries.Finance Research Letters(44), 1-15.
  • Chinazzi, M., Davis, J., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinona, M., Merler, S., Vespignani, A. (2020). The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Outbreak. Science, 1, 1-11.
  • Chinazzi, M., Davis, J., Ajelli, M., Gioannini, C., Litvinova, M., Merler, S., Pastore y Piontti, A., Rossi, L., Sun, K., Viboud, C., Xiong, X., Yu, H., Halloran, M.E., Longini Jr, M. and Vespignani, A. (2020) The Effect of Travel Restrictions on the Spread of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Outbreak, The Preprint Server for Health Sciences, BMJ Yale,
  • Czerny, A., Fu, X., Lei, Z., and Oum, T. (2021). Post Pandemic Aviation Market Recovery: Experience and Lessons from China. Journal of Air Transport Management (90), 1-10.
  • Daon, Y., Thompson, R., and Obolski, U. (2020). Estimating COVID-19 Outbreak Risk Through Air Travel. International Society of Travel Medicine (Uncorrected Manuscript).
  • Deveci, M., Çiftçi, M., Akyurt, İ., and Gonzales, E. (2022). Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on the Turkish Civil Aviation Industry. Sustainable Operations and Computers (3), 93-102.
  • Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1979). Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Dickey, D.A., and Fuller, W.A. (1981). Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1072. doi:10.2307/1912517
  • ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention). 2020. “Data on the Geographic Distribution of COVID-19 Cases Worldwide.” European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), Solna.
  • Foo, L. P., Chin, M. Y., Tan, K. L., and Phuah, K. T. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Tourism Industry in Malaysia. Current Issues in Tourism, 24(19), 2735-2739.
  • Gössling, S., Scott, D. and Hall, C. M. (2020). Pandemics, Tourism and Global Change: A Rapid Assessment of COVID-19, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 1-20.
  • Gujarati, D.N., and Porter, D.C. (1999). Essentials of Econometrics, Irwin/McGraw-Hill, 4th. Edition, Boston. Academia
  • Günay, F., Bayraktaroğlu, E., and Özkul, K. (2020). Assessing the Short-Term Impacts of COVID-19 Pandemic on Foreign Visitor’s Demand for Turkey: A Scenario Analysis. Journal of Ekonomi, 2(2), 80-85.
  • Hale, T., Petherick, A., Phillips, T., and Webster, S. (2020). Variation in Government Responses to COVID-19. Blavatnik School of Government Working Paper, 31.
  • Haleem, A., Javaid, M. ve Vaishya, R. (2020). Effects of COVID-19 Pandemic in Daily Life. Current Medicine Research and Practice. Doi: 10.1016/j.cmrp.2020.03.011
  • Hotle, S. and Mumbower, S. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Domestic U.S. Air Travel Operations and Commercial Airport Service. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives. 9, 1-8.
  • Hou, M., Wang, K., and Yang, H. (2021). Hub Airport Slot Re-Allocation and Subsidy Policy to Speed up Air Traffic Recovery Amid COVID-19 Pandemic - Case on the Chinese Airline Market. Journal of Air Transport Management (93), 1-13.
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  • ICAO (2020). Effects of Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) on Civil Aviation: Economic Impact Analysis, ICAO Reports, 1-45. https://www.aaco.org/Library/Files/Uploaded%20Files/Economics/C orona%20studies/3dec%20ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf (05.02.2023)
  • Khalilzadeh, J. (2020). The Future of The Global Tourism System Post Covid-19. Retrieved from: https://business.ecu.edu/wp-content/pv- uploads/sites/152/2020/04/THE-FUTURE-OF-THE-GLOBAL-TOURISM- SYSTEM-POST-COVID-19Final.pdf [Access on December 20, 2020]
  • Korkut, Y., Eker, M., Zeren, F., and Altunışık, R. (2020). Covid-19 Pandemisinin Turizm Üzerindeki Etkileri: Borsa İstanbul Turizm Endeksi Üzerine Bir İnceleme. Gaziantep Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 19 (COVID-19 Special Issue), 71-86.
  • Kotcharin, S., Maneenop, S., and Jaroenjitrkam, A. (2023). The Impact of Government Policy Responses on Airline Stock Return During the COVID-19 Crisis. Research in Transportation Economics (99), 1-12.
  • Lamb, T., Ruskin, K., Rice, S., Khorassani, L., and Winter, S. (2021). A Qualitative Analysis of Social and Emotional Perspectives of Airline Passengers During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Air Transport Management (94), 1-11.
  • Lamb, T., Winter, S., Rice, S., Ruskin, K., and Vaughn, A. (2020). Factors that Predict Passengers Willingness to fly During and After the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Air Transport Management (89), 1- 10.
  • Lau, H., Khosrawipour, V., Kocbach, P., Mikolajczyk, A., Ichii, H., Zacharski, M. Khosrawipour, T. (2020). The Association Between International and Domestic Air Traffic and the Coronavirus (COVID- 19) Outbreak. Journal of Microbiology, Immunology and Infection (53), 1-6.
  • Lee, C. C. and Chen, C. J. (2011), “The reaction of Elderly Asian Tourists to Avian Influenza and SARS”, Tourism Management, 32(6), 1421– 1422.
  • McKinsey and Company (2020). “Consumer Sentiment Evolves as the Next “Normal” Approaches” https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and- sales/our-insights/a-global-view-of-how-consumer-behavior-is- changing-amid-covid-19 [Access on December 11, 2020]
  • Menegaki, A. N. (2020). Hedging Feasibility Perspectives Against the COVID-19 in the International Tourism Sector, Business, Economics and Menagement, 1-18.
  • Miani, P., Kille, T., Lee, S., Zhang, Y., and Bates, P. (2021). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Current Tertiary Aviation Education and Future Careers: Students’ Perspective. Journal of Air Transport Management (94), 1-8.
  • Monmousseau, P., Marzuoli, A., Feron, E., and Delahaye, D. (2020). Impact of Covid-19 on Passengers and aAirlines from Passenger Measurements: Managing Customer Satisfaction while Putting the US Air Transportation System to Sleep. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives, 7, 1-11.
  • Nakamura, H., and Managi, S. (2020). Airport risk of Importation and Exportation of the COVID-19 Pandemic. Transport Policy (96), 40-47.
  • Nicola, M., Alsafi, Z., Sohrabi, C., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., Iosifidis, C., Agha, R. (2020). The Socio-Economic Implications of the Coronavirus Pandemic (COVID-19): A Review. International Journal of Surgery (London, England), 78, 185.
  • Phillips, P.C.B., and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for Unit Roots in Time Series Regression. Biometrika, 75, 335–346.
  • Piccinelli, S., Moro, S., and Rita, P. (2021). Air-Travelers’ Concerns Emerging from Online Comments During the COVID-19 Outbreak. Tourism Management (85), 1-9.
  • Ranasinghe, R., Damunupola, A., Wijesundara, S., Karunarathna, C., Nawarathna, D., Gamage, S., Ranaweera, A. and Idroos, A. A. (2020). Tourism After Corona: Impacts of Covid 19 Pandemic and Way Forward for Tourism, Hotel and Mice Industry in Sri Lanka, 1-19.
  • Rust, D., Stewart, R., and Werner, T. (2021). The Duluth International Airport Aviation Business Cluster: The Impact of COVID-19 and the CARES act. Research in Transportation Economics (89), 1-13.
  • Serrano, F., and Kazda, A. (2020). The Future of Airports Post COVID- 19. Journal of Air Transport Management (89), 1-10.
  • Sobieralski, J., and Mumbower, S. (2022). Jet-Setting During COVID- 19: Environmental Implications of the Pandemic Induced Private Aviation Boom. Transportation Research Interdisciplinary Perspectives (13), 1-8.
  • Sotomayor-Castillo, C., Radford, K., Li, C., Nahidi, S., and Shaban, R. (2021). Air Travel in a COVID-19 World: Commercial Airline Passengers’ Health Concerns and Attitudes Towards Infection Prevention and Disease Control Measures. Infection, Disease and Health (26), 110-117.
  • Su, M., Hu, B., Luan, W., and Tian, C. (2022). Effects of COVID-19 on China’s Civil Aviation Passenger Transport Market. Research in Transportation Economics (96), 1-9.
  • Suau-Sanchez, P., Voltes-Dorta, A., and Cugueró-Escofet, N. (2020). An Early Assessment of the Impact of COVID-19 on Air Transport: Just Another Crisis or the End of Aviation as We Know It? Journal of Transport Geography (86), 1-8.
  • Sun, X., Wandelt, S., and Zhang, A. (2020). How did COVID-19 Impact Air Transportation? A First Peek Through the Lens of Complex Networks. Journal of Air Transport Management (89), 1-7.
  • Sun, X., Wandelt, S., and Zhang, A. (2021). On the Degree of Synchronization Between Air Transport Connectivity and COVID-19 Cases at Worldwide Level. Transport Policy (105), 115-123.
  • Sun, X., Wandelt, S., and Zhang, A. (2023). A Data-Driven Analysis of the Aviation Recovery from the COVID-19 Pandemic. Journal of Air Transport Management (109), 1-13.
  • Tisdall, L., Zhang, Y., and Zhang, A. (2021). COVID-19 Impacts on General Aviation – Comparative Experiences, Governmental Responses and Policy Imperatives. Transport Policy (110), 273-280.
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  • Witte, K., Allen, M. (2000), “A Meta-Analysis of Fear Appeals: Implications for Effective Public Health Campaigns”, Health Education and Behavior, 27(5), 591-615.
  • World Economic Forum (2020) This is How Coronavirus Could Affect the Travel and Tourism Industry, Retrieved from: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/03/world-travel- coronavirus-covid19-jobs-pandemic-tourism-aviation/ [Access on January 4, 2021]
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  • Yenişehirlioğlu, E. ve Salha, H. (2020). “Covid 19 Pandemisinin Türkiye İç Turizmine Yansımaları: Değişen Talep Üzerine Bir Araştırma”, İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi Covid-19 Sosyal Bilimler Özel Sayısı, 19 (37).
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  • Zhang, H., Czerny, A., Grimme, W., and Niemeier, H. (2023). The Big Three EU Low Cost Carriers Before and During the Covid-19 Pandemic: Network Overlaps and Airfare Effects. Research in Transportation Economics (97), 1-11.
  • Zhang, L., Yang, H., Wang, K., Bian, L., and Zhang, X. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Airline Passenger Travel Behavior: An Exploratory Analysis on the Chinese Aviation Market. Journal of Air Transport Management (95), 1-11.
Toplam 70 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular Turizm Ekonomisi
Bölüm Araştırma Makalesi
Yazarlar

Ferhat Pehlivanoğlu 0000-0001-6930-0181

Murat Emikönel 0000-0002-8415-0510

Muhammet Rıdvan İnce 0000-0003-2050-2545

Erken Görünüm Tarihi 29 Aralık 2023
Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Aralık 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 25 Sayı: 45

Kaynak Göster

APA Pehlivanoğlu, F., Emikönel, M., & İnce, M. R. (2023). First Period Effect of Covid-19 on International Aviation Tourism. Karamanoğlu Mehmetbey Üniversitesi Sosyal Ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 808-825.

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