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Enflasyon ile Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi: Yüksek ve Düşük Enflasyonlu Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik Kanıtlar

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 577 - 592, 15.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.709658

Öz

Literatürde, finansal gelişmeyi etkilediği ileri sürülen çeşitli makroekonomik değişkenler tartışılmaktadır. Enflasyon bunlardan birisidir. Bir ekonomide yüksek enflasyon en başta belirsizliğe neden olarak genellikle istikrarsız bir makroekonomik ortam ile ilişkilendirilmektedir. Belirsizlik ortamında firmalar yeni yatırımlardan kaçınarak üretimin azalmasına neden olabilmekte ve reel sektörle finansal sektör arasındaki ilişkiye engel olabilmektedir. Dahası, belirsizlik ortamı finansal aracılığın maliyetini yükselterek finansal gelişme sürecini sekteye uğratabilmektedir. Diğer taraftan yüksek enflasyon, sabit gelirliler aleyhine gelir dağılımını bozarak tasarrufların erimesine de neden olmaktadır. Bu durum yatırımlar için gerekli olan fonların azalması süreciyle finansal sistemi olumsuz etkilemektedir. Dolayısıyla konu ile ilgili ampirik literatür enflasyondaki artışın finansal gelişmeyi negatif etkilediğini, enflasyondaki azalışın da finansal gelişmeyi pozitif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır.
Bu çalışmanın amacı, yüksek enflasyonun finansal piyasalar üzerindeki olumsuz etkilerinden hareketle, seçilmiş yüksek ve düşük enflasyonlu ülke grubu örnekleri için ayrı ayrı enflasyon ile finansal gelişme göstergeleri arasındaki ilişkiyi, kontrol değişkenleri de kullanarak yeni nesil panel ekonometrik yöntemlerle tahmin etmektir. Elde edilen bulgular, yüksek ve düşük enflasyonlu ülke gruplarında enflasyon değişkeninin finansal gelişmeyi temsil eden göstergeleri negatif etkilediğini ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • Abbey, E. N. (2012). Inflation and financial development: Evidence. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 4(4), 227-236.
  • Ağır, H. (2010). Türkiye’de Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi. BDDK Yayın No: 8, Ankara.
  • Almalki, A. M., & Batayneh, K. I. (2015). The relationship between inflation and financial development in Saudi Arabia. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(6), 321-332.
  • Ang, J. B. (2007). Are Financial Sector Policies Effective in Deepening the Malaysian Financial System?. Monash University, Discussion Paper, 02/07.
  • Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence. Economic Journal, 107 (442):783-799.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Ben Naceur, S., Ghazouani, S., & Omran, M. (2005). The determinants of stock market development in the MENA region. Available at SSRN 856385.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2011). Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 91-99.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2008). Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil. United Nations University, Research Paper No: 2008/14.
  • Boyd, J., Levine, R. & Smith, B. (2001). The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47: 221-248.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Cuadro, L., Gallego, S. & Herrero, A. G. (2003). Why Do Countries Develop More Financially than Others? The Role of the Central Bank and Banking Supervision. http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/conferences/emg_finance/Papers/Cuadro_Gallego_GarciaHerrero.pdf (12/12/2008).
  • Çınar, S. (2010). OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına Gsyih Durağan Mı? Panel Veri Analizi. Marmara University Journal of the Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences, 29(2).
  • Dehasa, M., Druck, P. & Plekhanov, A. (2007). Relative Price Stability, Creditor Rights and Financial Deepening. IMF Working Paper No: 07/139.
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A novel estimator.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
  • Haslag, J. H. & Koo, J. (1999). Financial Repression, Financial Development and Economic Growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper No: 9902.
  • Huybens, E. & Smith, B. D. (1999). Inflation, Financial Markets and LongRun Real Activity. Journal of Monetary Economics, 43: 283-315.
  • Kar M. & Ağır, H. (2005). “Finansal Derinlesme Göstergeleri Üzerine Bir Degerlendirme” Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 42(496), ss. 30-45.
  • Keho, Y. (2009). Inflation and financial development: Cointegration and causality analysis for the UEMOA countries. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 27(10), 117-123.
  • Kim, D. H., & Lin, S. C. (2010). Dynamic relationship between inflation and financial development. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14(3), 343-364.
  • King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993a). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3):717-737.
  • King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3):513-542.
  • Lee, C., & Wong, S. Y. (2005). Inflationary threshold effects in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: evidence from Taiwan and Japan. Journal of Economic Development, 30(1), 49.
  • Lu, X., Guo, K., Dong, Z., & Wang, X. (2017). Financial development and relationship evolvement among money supply, economic growth and inflation: a comparative study from the US and China. Applied Economics, 49(10), 1032-1045.
  • Lynch, D. (1996) “Measuring Fınancial Sector Development: A Study of Selected Asia‐Pacific Countries”, The Developing Economies, 34 (1), ss. 1-27.
  • Montiel, P. J. (2003). Development of Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Policy. Journal of African Economies, 12(2): ii12ii52.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, TC Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kayseri.
  • Nazlioglu, S., & Karul, C. (2017). Panel LM unit root test with gradual structural shifts.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2012). The impact of inflation on financial sector development: Experience from Zambia. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 28(6), 1497-1508.
  • Ozturk, N., & Karagoz, K. (2012). Relationship between inflation and financial development: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 4(2), 81-87.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Shan, J. & Jianhong, Q. (2006). Does Financial Development 2lead2 Economic Growth? The Case of China. Annalys of Economics and Finance, 1: 231250.
  • Thiel, M. (2001). Finance and Growth: A Review of Theory and the Available Evidence. Directorate General for Economic And Financial Affairs, Economic Paper No. 158. (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication884_en.pdf, 29.05.2009).
  • Wahid, A. N., Shahbaz, M., & Azim, P. (2011). Inflation and financial sector correlation: The case of Bangladesh. International journal of economics and financial issues, 1(4), 145-152.
  • Westerlund, J. (2006). Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(1), 101-132.
  • Zoli, E. (2007). Financial Development in Emerging Europa: The Unfinished Agenda. IMF Working Paper No 07245, Washington D.C.: IMF.

The Relationship Between Inflation And Financial Development: Empirical Evidences on High And Low Inflation Countries

Yıl 2020, Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3, 577 - 592, 15.07.2020
https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.709658

Öz

High inflation in an economy is often associated with an unstable macroeconomic environment, by causing uncertainty first and foremost. In an environment of uncertainty, firms can avoid new investments and cause a decrease in production and hinder the relationship between the real sector and the financial sector. Moreover, the uncertainty environment may hamper the financial development process by increasing the cost of financial intermediation. On the other hand, high inflation, to the detriment of the fixed income groups, causes the savings to melt by disrupting the distribution of income. This situation adversely affects the financial system due to the decrease in the funds that required for investments. Accordingly, the empirical literature on the subject reveals that the rise in inflation negatively affects financial development and the decrease in inflation positively affects financial development.
The aim of this study is to estimate the relationship between inflation and financial development separately for selected high and low inflation countries by using new generation panel econometric methods, starting from the negative effects of high inflation on financial markets. The findings indicate that the inflation variable affects the indicators representing financial development negatively in the groups of countries with high and low inflation, and this effect is more evident in countries with high inflation.. It becomes important for policymakers to take steps to reduce high inflation, which hinders financial development.

Kaynakça

  • Abbey, E. N. (2012). Inflation and financial development: Evidence. American Journal of Economics and Business Administration, 4(4), 227-236.
  • Ağır, H. (2010). Türkiye’de Finansal Liberalizasyon ve Finansal Gelişme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi. BDDK Yayın No: 8, Ankara.
  • Almalki, A. M., & Batayneh, K. I. (2015). The relationship between inflation and financial development in Saudi Arabia. The Journal of Developing Areas, 49(6), 321-332.
  • Ang, J. B. (2007). Are Financial Sector Policies Effective in Deepening the Malaysian Financial System?. Monash University, Discussion Paper, 02/07.
  • Arestis, P. & Demetriades, P. (1997). Financial Development and Economic Growth: Assessing the Evidence. Economic Journal, 107 (442):783-799.
  • Baltagi, B. (2008). Econometric analysis of panel data. John Wiley & Sons.
  • Ben Naceur, S., Ghazouani, S., & Omran, M. (2005). The determinants of stock market development in the MENA region. Available at SSRN 856385.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2011). Inflation and financial development: Evidence from Brazil. Economic Modelling, 28(1-2), 91-99.
  • Bittencourt, M. (2008). Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil. United Nations University, Research Paper No: 2008/14.
  • Boyd, J., Levine, R. & Smith, B. (2001). The Impact of Inflation on Financial Sector Performance. Journal of Monetary Economics, 47: 221-248.
  • Breusch, T. S., & Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange multiplier test and its applications to model specification in econometrics. The review of economic studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Cuadro, L., Gallego, S. & Herrero, A. G. (2003). Why Do Countries Develop More Financially than Others? The Role of the Central Bank and Banking Supervision. http://www.cass.city.ac.uk/conferences/emg_finance/Papers/Cuadro_Gallego_GarciaHerrero.pdf (12/12/2008).
  • Çınar, S. (2010). OECD Ülkelerinde Kişi Başına Gsyih Durağan Mı? Panel Veri Analizi. Marmara University Journal of the Faculty of Economic & Administrative Sciences, 29(2).
  • Dehasa, M., Druck, P. & Plekhanov, A. (2007). Relative Price Stability, Creditor Rights and Financial Deepening. IMF Working Paper No: 07/139.
  • Eberhardt, M., & Bond, S. (2009). Cross-section Dependence in Nonstationary Panel Models: A novel estimator.
  • Hansen, B. E. (1999). Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference. Journal of econometrics, 93(2), 345-368.
  • Haslag, J. H. & Koo, J. (1999). Financial Repression, Financial Development and Economic Growth. Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Working Paper No: 9902.
  • Huybens, E. & Smith, B. D. (1999). Inflation, Financial Markets and LongRun Real Activity. Journal of Monetary Economics, 43: 283-315.
  • Kar M. & Ağır, H. (2005). “Finansal Derinlesme Göstergeleri Üzerine Bir Degerlendirme” Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar Dergisi, 42(496), ss. 30-45.
  • Keho, Y. (2009). Inflation and financial development: Cointegration and causality analysis for the UEMOA countries. International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 27(10), 117-123.
  • Kim, D. H., & Lin, S. C. (2010). Dynamic relationship between inflation and financial development. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 14(3), 343-364.
  • King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993a). Finance and Growth: Schumpeter Might Be Right. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 108(3):717-737.
  • King, R. G. & Levine, R. (1993b). Finance, Entrepreneurship, and Growth: Theory and Evidence. Journal of Monetary Economics, 32(3):513-542.
  • Lee, C., & Wong, S. Y. (2005). Inflationary threshold effects in the relationship between financial development and economic growth: evidence from Taiwan and Japan. Journal of Economic Development, 30(1), 49.
  • Lu, X., Guo, K., Dong, Z., & Wang, X. (2017). Financial development and relationship evolvement among money supply, economic growth and inflation: a comparative study from the US and China. Applied Economics, 49(10), 1032-1045.
  • Lynch, D. (1996) “Measuring Fınancial Sector Development: A Study of Selected Asia‐Pacific Countries”, The Developing Economies, 34 (1), ss. 1-27.
  • Montiel, P. J. (2003). Development of Financial Markets and Macroeconomic Policy. Journal of African Economies, 12(2): ii12ii52.
  • Nazlıoğlu, Ş. (2010). Makro iktisat politikalarının tarım sektörü üzerindeki etkileri: Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkeler için bir karşılaştırma. Yayınlanmamış Doktora Tezi, TC Erciyes Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, Kayseri.
  • Nazlioglu, S., & Karul, C. (2017). Panel LM unit root test with gradual structural shifts.
  • Odhiambo, N. M. (2012). The impact of inflation on financial sector development: Experience from Zambia. Journal of Applied Business Research (JABR), 28(6), 1497-1508.
  • Ozturk, N., & Karagoz, K. (2012). Relationship between inflation and financial development: Evidence from Turkey. International Journal of Alanya Faculty of Business, 4(2), 81-87.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General diagnostic tests for cross section dependence in panels.
  • Pesaran, M. H., & Yamagata, T. (2008). Testing slope homogeneity in large panels. Journal of econometrics, 142(1), 50-93.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Ullah, A., & Yamagata, T. (2008). A bias‐adjusted LM test of error cross‐section independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Shan, J. & Jianhong, Q. (2006). Does Financial Development 2lead2 Economic Growth? The Case of China. Annalys of Economics and Finance, 1: 231250.
  • Thiel, M. (2001). Finance and Growth: A Review of Theory and the Available Evidence. Directorate General for Economic And Financial Affairs, Economic Paper No. 158. (http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/publications/publication884_en.pdf, 29.05.2009).
  • Wahid, A. N., Shahbaz, M., & Azim, P. (2011). Inflation and financial sector correlation: The case of Bangladesh. International journal of economics and financial issues, 1(4), 145-152.
  • Westerlund, J. (2006). Testing for panel cointegration with multiple structural breaks. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 68(1), 101-132.
  • Zoli, E. (2007). Financial Development in Emerging Europa: The Unfinished Agenda. IMF Working Paper No 07245, Washington D.C.: IMF.
Toplam 39 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sena Türkmen 0000-0002-8334-6466

Hüseyin Ağır 0000-0003-1642-2876

Yayımlanma Tarihi 15 Temmuz 2020
Gönderilme Tarihi 26 Mart 2020
Kabul Tarihi 10 Haziran 2020
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2020 Cilt: 13 Sayı: 3

Kaynak Göster

APA Türkmen, S., & Ağır, H. (2020). Enflasyon ile Finansal Gelişme İlişkisi: Yüksek ve Düşük Enflasyonlu Ülkeler Üzerine Ampirik Kanıtlar. Ömer Halisdemir Üniversitesi İktisadi Ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 13(3), 577-592. https://doi.org/10.25287/ohuiibf.709658
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