Öz
Petrol, ithalatçı ülkeler için ciddi bir
maliyet unsuru iken petrol ihracatçısı ülkeler için önemli bir gelir
kaynağıdır. Bu amaçla petrol ihraç eden 22 OECD[1]
ülkesinde 1995-2016 yılları arası yıllık veriler kullanılarak ham petrol varil
ihracat fiyatının ekonomik büyüme göstergesi olarak alınan GSMH ile
aralarındaki uzun dönemli ilişki incelenmiştir. Uzun dönemli ilişkinin varlığı
Pedroni (1999), Kao (1999) ve Johansen Fisher eşbütünleşme analizi yardımıyla test
edilmiş ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı ve pozitif ilişki olduğu görülmüştür.
Daha sonra ekonomik büyüme ve ham petrol varil ihracat fiyatı arasındaki uzun
dönemli ilişkiyle ilgili çıkarımda bulunabilmek için FMOLS ve DOLS yönetimi
uygulanmış ve katsayı her iki yöntemde sırasıyla 0.32 ve 0.30 olarak tahmin
edilmiştir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Ekonomik Büyüme Panel Eşbütünleşme OECD Petrol İhracat Fiyatı Panel Eşbütünleşme
Kaynakça
- Abeysinghe, T. (2001) “Estimation of Direct and Indirect Impact of Oil Price on Growth”, Economics Letters, 73:147-153.
- Akıncı, M. vd. (2012) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 31(2):1-17.
- Akıncı, M. vd. (2013) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1):349-361.
- Asteriou, D. ve Hall S.G. (2007) Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit Revisited Edition, PalgraveMacmillan, Newyork, ss.373.
- Baltagi, B.H. vd. (2000) “Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels: A Survey”, Center for Policy Research Working Paper No.16, http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/uploadedFiles/cpr/publications/working_papers/wp16.pdf (26.04.2016)
- Berument, M.H, Ceylan, N:B. Ve Doğan N.(2010) “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”, The Energy Journal, Vol. 31:149-176.
- Breitung, J. (2000) “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/series/sfb-373-papers/1999-69/PDF/69.pdf (18.05.2016)
- Burbidge, J. ve Harrison A. (1984) “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25(2):459-484.
- Choi, I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 249-272.
- Ferderer, J.P. (1996) “Oil Price Volatility and The Macroeconomy”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1):1-26.
- GAZBİR (2017) “Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Enerji Durumu”, http://www.gazbir.org.tr/uploads/page/Dunya-ve-Turkiye-Enerji-Gorunumu.pdf Gisser, M. ve Goodwin, T.H.(1986) “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 18, No. 1:95-103.
- Göçer, İ ve Bulut Ş. (2015) “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimlerin Rusya Ekonomisine Etkileri: Çoklu yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme ve Simetrik nedensellik Analizi”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 1-28.
- Hadri K. (1999) “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, Econometrics Journal, 3:148–161.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2):228-248.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1988) “Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil-Price Changes Symmetric? : A Comment,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, 28(1):369-378.
- Hamliton, J.D. (1996) “This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38:215-220.
- Hamilton, J.D. (2003), “What is An Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113:363-398.
- Hooker, M.A. (1996) “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39(2):215-220.
- International Energy Agency (IEA). (2001) “World Energy Outlook 2001- Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth”, www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo2001.pdf.
- International Energy Agency (IEA). (2018) “World Energy Balances: Overview”, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2263?filename=world_energy_balances_2018_overview.pdf
- Im, K.S., M.H. Pesaran veY. Shin (2003) “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115:53-74.
- Iwayemi, A. ve Fowowe B. (2011) “Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria”, Energy Policy, 39:603-612.
- Kao C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90:1-44.
- Kılıan, L. ve Hıcks B. (2013) “Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shocks of 2003-2008?” Journal of Forcasting, 32:385-394.
- Lee, K. ve Ni S. (2002), “On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49:823–852.
- Levin, A. vd. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108:1–24.
- Maddala, G.S. ve ShaowenWu (1999), “Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and a New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, 61: 631-652.
- Mork, K.A. (1989) “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 91:740-744.
- Oh, W. ve Lee, K.(2004) “Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation” ,Journal of Policy Modeling,26: 973–981
- Öksüzler, O. ve İpek E. (2011) “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(4):15-34.
- Özsağır, A. vd. (2011) “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin GSYİH Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 1(18):19-28.
- Pedroni P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999;61:653-70.
- Pedroni P. (2001) “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4):727-731.
- Pedroni P. (2015) “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels’ in Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels”. Published online: 08 Mar 2015; 93-130. Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2
- Yanar R. (2014) “Petrol fiyatlarındaki Düşüş ve Ortadoğu Ekonomilerine Etkileri”, Orsam Rapor, 194:1-20.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F. Ve Gülmez A. (2013) “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyo Ekonomi Dergisi, 1:117-140.
- Zivot , E. Ve Andrews D.W.K. (1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 10(3):24-44.
Öz
While oil is a serious
cost factor for oil importing countries, it is an important source of income
for oil exporting countries. For this purpose, the long-term relationship
between the GNP and the crude oil prices, which were taken as the indicators of
economic growth, were analyzed using the annual data of 22 OECD countries in 22
exporting petroleum. For this purpose, the long-term relationship between the
crude oil barrel export price and the GDP, which is considered as an indicator
of economic growth, was analyzed using the annual data in the 22 OECD
countries. The presence of long-term relationship was tested by Pedroni (1999),
Kao (1999) and Johanser Fisher by cointegration analysis and a statistically
significant and positive correlation was found. Then, FMOLS and DOLS management
were applied in order to infer the long-term relationship between economic
growth and crude oil barrel export price and the coefficient was estimated to
be 0.32 and 0.30, respectively, in both methods.
Anahtar Kelimeler
OECD Price of oil import Economic Growth Panel Cointegration
Kaynakça
- Abeysinghe, T. (2001) “Estimation of Direct and Indirect Impact of Oil Price on Growth”, Economics Letters, 73:147-153.
- Akıncı, M. vd. (2012) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Panel Veri Analizi”, Uludağ Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 31(2):1-17.
- Akıncı, M. vd. (2013) “Petrol Fiyatları ile Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: OPEC ve Petrol İthalatçısı Ülkeler İçin Zaman Serisi Analizi”, Atatürk Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 17(1):349-361.
- Asteriou, D. ve Hall S.G. (2007) Applied Econometrics: A Modern Approach Using Eviews and Microfit Revisited Edition, PalgraveMacmillan, Newyork, ss.373.
- Baltagi, B.H. vd. (2000) “Nonstationary Panels, Cointegration in Panels: A Survey”, Center for Policy Research Working Paper No.16, http://www.maxwell.syr.edu/uploadedFiles/cpr/publications/working_papers/wp16.pdf (26.04.2016)
- Berument, M.H, Ceylan, N:B. Ve Doğan N.(2010) “The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA Countries”, The Energy Journal, Vol. 31:149-176.
- Breitung, J. (2000) “The Local Power of Some Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, http://edoc.hu-berlin.de/series/sfb-373-papers/1999-69/PDF/69.pdf (18.05.2016)
- Burbidge, J. ve Harrison A. (1984) “Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions”, International Economic Review, 25(2):459-484.
- Choi, I. (2001), “Unit Root Tests for Panel Data”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 20: 249-272.
- Ferderer, J.P. (1996) “Oil Price Volatility and The Macroeconomy”, Journal of Macroeconomics, 18(1):1-26.
- GAZBİR (2017) “Dünyada ve Türkiye’de Enerji Durumu”, http://www.gazbir.org.tr/uploads/page/Dunya-ve-Turkiye-Enerji-Gorunumu.pdf Gisser, M. ve Goodwin, T.H.(1986) “Crude Oil and the Macroeconomy: Tests of Some Popular Notions: Note” Journal of Money Credit and Banking, Vol. 18, No. 1:95-103.
- Göçer, İ ve Bulut Ş. (2015) “Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimlerin Rusya Ekonomisine Etkileri: Çoklu yapısal Kırılmalı Eşbütünleşme ve Simetrik nedensellik Analizi”, Çankırı Karatekin Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 1-28.
- Hadri K. (1999) “Testing for Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data”, Econometrics Journal, 3:148–161.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1983) “Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II”, Journal of Political Economy, 91(2):228-248.
- Hamilton, J.D. (1988) “Are the Macroeconomic Effects of Oil-Price Changes Symmetric? : A Comment,” Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, 28(1):369-378.
- Hamliton, J.D. (1996) “This is What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 38:215-220.
- Hamilton, J.D. (2003), “What is An Oil Shock?” Journal of Econometrics, 113:363-398.
- Hooker, M.A. (1996) “What Happened to the Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship?”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 39(2):215-220.
- International Energy Agency (IEA). (2001) “World Energy Outlook 2001- Assessing Today’s Supplies to Fuel Tomorrow’s Growth”, www.iea.org/media/weowebsite/2008-1994/weo2001.pdf.
- International Energy Agency (IEA). (2018) “World Energy Balances: Overview”, https://webstore.iea.org/download/direct/2263?filename=world_energy_balances_2018_overview.pdf
- Im, K.S., M.H. Pesaran veY. Shin (2003) “Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels”, Journal of Econometrics, 115:53-74.
- Iwayemi, A. ve Fowowe B. (2011) “Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Selected Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria”, Energy Policy, 39:603-612.
- Kao C. (1999) “Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data”, Journal of Econometrics, 90:1-44.
- Kılıan, L. ve Hıcks B. (2013) “Did Unexpectedly Strong Economic Growth Cause the Oil Price Shocks of 2003-2008?” Journal of Forcasting, 32:385-394.
- Lee, K. ve Ni S. (2002), “On the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: A Study Using Industry Level Data”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 49:823–852.
- Levin, A. vd. (2002), “Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties”, Journal of Econometrics, 108:1–24.
- Maddala, G.S. ve ShaowenWu (1999), “Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests With Panel Data and a New Simple Test”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Special Issue, 61: 631-652.
- Mork, K.A. (1989) “Oil and the Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton’s Results”, Journal of Political Economy, 91:740-744.
- Oh, W. ve Lee, K.(2004) “Energy consumption and economic growth in Korea: testing the causality relation” ,Journal of Policy Modeling,26: 973–981
- Öksüzler, O. ve İpek E. (2011) “Dünya Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Değişimin Büyüme ve Enflasyon Üzerindeki Etkisi: Türkiye Örneği”, ZKÜ Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 7(4):15-34.
- Özsağır, A. vd. (2011) “Ham Petrol Fiyatlarındaki Volatilitenin GSYİH Büyümesi Üzerindeki Etkileri: Türkiye Örneği”, Yönetim ve Ekonomi Dergisi, 1(18):19-28.
- Pedroni P. (1999) “Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 1999;61:653-70.
- Pedroni P. (2001) “Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 83(4):727-731.
- Pedroni P. (2015) “Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels’ in Nonstationary Panels, Panel Cointegration, and Dynamic Panels”. Published online: 08 Mar 2015; 93-130. Permanent link to this document: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0731-9053(00)15004-2
- Yanar R. (2014) “Petrol fiyatlarındaki Düşüş ve Ortadoğu Ekonomilerine Etkileri”, Orsam Rapor, 194:1-20.
- Yardımcıoğlu, F. Ve Gülmez A. (2013) “OPEC Ülkelerinde Hollanda Hastalığı: Petrol Fiyatları ve Ekonomik Büyüme İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Bir Analizi”, Sosyo Ekonomi Dergisi, 1:117-140.
- Zivot , E. Ve Andrews D.W.K. (1992) “Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock and the Unit-Root Hypothesis”, Journal of Business&Economic Statistics, 10(3):24-44.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Makaleler |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 5 Temmuz 2018 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2018 Cilt: 7 Sayı: 2 |
