Araştırma Makalesi
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Yıl 2023, Sayı: 94, 172 - 190, 24.05.2023

Kudbeddin Şeker

https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1225501
Cited By: 1

Öz

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal Gelişme Ekonomik Büyüme NARDL Modeli Toda-Yamamoto Granger Nedensellik Testi

Kaynakça

  • Adjasi, C. K., & Biekpe, N. B. (2006). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of selected African countries. African Development Review, 18(1), 144-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2006.00136.x
  • Ak, M.Z., Altıntaş, N., & Şimşek, A. S. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin nedensellik analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17(2), 151-160. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2152120
  • Ake, B., & Jin, D. (2010). The role of stock market development in economic growth: evidence from some Euronext countries. International Journal of Financial Research, 1(1), 14-20. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v1n1p14
  • Ake, B., & Ognaligui, R. (2010). Financial stock market and economic growth in developing countries: The case of Douala Stock Exchange in Cameroon. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(5). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v5n5p82
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2016). Does Turkish Stock Market contrıbute to Turkey’s long-run growth: an analysıs wıth structural breaks. Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics, 2(3), 1-13.
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2022). The asymmetric effects of real variables on real housing prices: a nonlinear ARDL analysis for Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0143
  • Altıntaş, H., & Ayrıçay, Y. (2010). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin sınır testi yaklaşımıyla analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 71-98. https://www.acarindex.com/dosyalar/makale/acarindex-1423869500.pdf
  • Altıntaş, H., & Tombak, F. (2011). Türkiye’de hisse senedi fiyatları ve makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi: 1987-2008. Anadolu Üniversitesi Ekonomi Kongresi II, 1, 21.
  • Altıntaş, H. (2016). Petrol fiyatlarinin gida fiyatlarina asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye için nardl modeli uygulamasi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 14(4), 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/yead.234720
  • Aslan, Ö., & Küçükaksoy, İ. (2006). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (4), 25-38. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/94964
  • Asteriou, D., & Spanos, K. (2019). The relationship between financial development and economic growth during the recent crisis: Evidence from the EU. Finance Research Letters, 28, 238-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.05.011
  • Atay, E. (2020). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1961-2015). Haliç Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 305-326. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1205077
  • Atje, R., & Jovanovic, B. (1993). Stock market and development. European Economic Review 37, 623–640.
  • Bist, J. P. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1449780. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1449780
  • Caporale, G. M., Howells, P., & Soliman, A. M. (2005). Endogenous growth models and stock market development: evidence from four countries. Review of Development Economics, 9(2), 166-176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00270.x
  • Caporale, G.M., Howells, P. G., & Soliman, A. M. (2004). Stock market development and economic growth: the causal linkage. Journal of Economic Development, 29(1), 33-50. http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/29-1/02_J665_.PDF
  • Demirgüç-Kunt, A. (2006). Finance and economic development: Policy choices for developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (3955). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/8415/wps3955.pdf;sequence=1
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Filer, R. K., Hanousek, J., & Campos, N. F. (2000). Do stock markets promote economic growth? CERGE-EI Working Paper Series, (151). https://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp151.pdf
  • Gökdeniz, İ., Erdoğan, M., & Kalyüncü, K. (2003). Finansal piyasaların ekonomik büyümeye etkisi ve Türkiye örneği (1989-2002). Gazi Üniversitesi Ticaret ve Turizm Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 101-117. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/yayin/detay/2982/
  • Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Gurley, J. G., & Shaw. E. S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American Economic Review 45(4), 515-538. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1811632
  • Guru, B. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019). Financial development and economic growth: panel evidence from BRICS. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 113-126. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-12-2017-0125
  • Güneş, S. (2013). Finansal gelişmişlik ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik testi: Türkiye örneği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 14(1), 73-85. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/doujournal/issue/66668/1043094
  • Gürsoy, C. T., & Müslümov, A. (1999). Stock markets and economic growth: a Causality test. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 1(2), 124-131. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/doujournal/issue/66643/1042808
  • Har, W. M., Ee, C. S., & Tan, C. T. (2008). Stock market and economic growth in Malaysia: Casuality test. Asian Social Science, 4(4), 86-92. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v4n4p86
  • Helhel, Y. (2017). E7 ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (628), 9-18. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48015/607276
  • Ishioro, B. O. (2013). Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from Zimbabwe. Ekonomska misao i praksa, (2), 343-360. https://hrcak.srce.hr/112603
  • Kar, M., & Ağır, H. (2006). Menkul kıymet piyasaları, finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 56(1), 13-46. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuifm/issue/801/8721
  • Karaca, O. (2012). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için bir nedensellik analizi. Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 6(2), 85-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/joeep/issue/60720/955139
  • Karamelikli, H., & Kesgingöz, H. (2017). Finansal gelişme bileşenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 6(1), 683-701. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/itobiad/issue/27443/304378
  • Kaya, A. (2014). Menkul kıymet piyasaları ekonomik büyümenin bir dinamiği midir? Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik panel veri analizi. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 28(4), 285-307. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd/issue/2715/36061
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The Effect of Total Market Values of Bıst Companies on Gdp: Nardl And Causality Test in 1999-2022 Period for Turkey

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 94, 172 - 190, 24.05.2023

Kudbeddin Şeker

https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1225501
Cited By: 1

Öz

BIST companies that produce goods and services in various fields direct the country's economy. The aim of this study is to determine the effect of the total market values of BIST companies on GDP. The data set of the study consists of annual data for the 1999-2022 period (24 period). NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, which can detect symmetrical and asymmetrical relationships, was used to determine the effect of the total market values of BIST companies on GDP. In the established model, there is Gross Domestic Product (GDP) as the dependent variable and the total market value (TPD) of BIST companies as the independent variable. NARDL analysis results show that there is a symmetric relationship in the model in the long run and an asymmetric relationship in the short run. According to the Wald tests conducted in line with the results of the Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test, it has been determined that there is Granger causality from TPD to GDP at 1% significance level, and there is no Granger causality from GDP to TPD. Granger causality from TPD to GDP at the 1% significance level provides supporting evidence for the supply antecedent hypothesis.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Financial development Economic growth NARDL model Toda-Yamamoto Granger causality test

Kaynakça

  • Adjasi, C. K., & Biekpe, N. B. (2006). Stock market development and economic growth: The case of selected African countries. African Development Review, 18(1), 144-161. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8268.2006.00136.x
  • Ak, M.Z., Altıntaş, N., & Şimşek, A. S. (2016). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin nedensellik analizi. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 17(2), 151-160. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/2152120
  • Ake, B., & Jin, D. (2010). The role of stock market development in economic growth: evidence from some Euronext countries. International Journal of Financial Research, 1(1), 14-20. https://doi.org/10.5430/ijfr.v1n1p14
  • Ake, B., & Ognaligui, R. (2010). Financial stock market and economic growth in developing countries: The case of Douala Stock Exchange in Cameroon. International Journal of Business and Management, 5(5). https://doi.org/10.5539/ijbm.v5n5p82
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2016). Does Turkish Stock Market contrıbute to Turkey’s long-run growth: an analysıs wıth structural breaks. Journal of Applied Research in Finance and Economics, 2(3), 1-13.
  • Akpolat, A. G. (2022). The asymmetric effects of real variables on real housing prices: a nonlinear ARDL analysis for Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, (ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/IJHMA-09-2022-0143
  • Altıntaş, H., & Ayrıçay, Y. (2010). Türkiye’de finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisinin sınır testi yaklaşımıyla analizi. Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 10(2), 71-98. https://www.acarindex.com/dosyalar/makale/acarindex-1423869500.pdf
  • Altıntaş, H., & Tombak, F. (2011). Türkiye’de hisse senedi fiyatları ve makro ekonomik değişkenler arasındaki ilişkinin ekonometrik analizi: 1987-2008. Anadolu Üniversitesi Ekonomi Kongresi II, 1, 21.
  • Altıntaş, H. (2016). Petrol fiyatlarinin gida fiyatlarina asimetrik etkisi: Türkiye için nardl modeli uygulamasi. Journal of Management and Economics Research, 14(4), 1-24. http://dx.doi.org/10.11611/yead.234720
  • Aslan, Ö., & Küçükaksoy, İ. (2006). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye ekonomisi üzerine ekonometrik bir uygulama. Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, (4), 25-38. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/94964
  • Asteriou, D., & Spanos, K. (2019). The relationship between financial development and economic growth during the recent crisis: Evidence from the EU. Finance Research Letters, 28, 238-245. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.frl.2018.05.011
  • Atay, E. (2020). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye örneği (1961-2015). Haliç Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 3(2), 305-326. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/download/article-file/1205077
  • Atje, R., & Jovanovic, B. (1993). Stock market and development. European Economic Review 37, 623–640.
  • Bist, J. P. (2018). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from a panel of 16 African and non-African low-income countries. Cogent Economics & Finance, 6(1), 1449780. https://doi.org/10.1080/23322039.2018.1449780
  • Caporale, G. M., Howells, P., & Soliman, A. M. (2005). Endogenous growth models and stock market development: evidence from four countries. Review of Development Economics, 9(2), 166-176. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2005.00270.x
  • Caporale, G.M., Howells, P. G., & Soliman, A. M. (2004). Stock market development and economic growth: the causal linkage. Journal of Economic Development, 29(1), 33-50. http://www.jed.or.kr/full-text/29-1/02_J665_.PDF
  • Demirgüç-Kunt, A. (2006). Finance and economic development: Policy choices for developing countries. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, (3955). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/8415/wps3955.pdf;sequence=1
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49, 1057-1072. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912517
  • Filer, R. K., Hanousek, J., & Campos, N. F. (2000). Do stock markets promote economic growth? CERGE-EI Working Paper Series, (151). https://www.cerge-ei.cz/pdf/wp/Wp151.pdf
  • Gökdeniz, İ., Erdoğan, M., & Kalyüncü, K. (2003). Finansal piyasaların ekonomik büyümeye etkisi ve Türkiye örneği (1989-2002). Gazi Üniversitesi Ticaret ve Turizm Eğitim Fakültesi Dergisi, 1(1), 101-117. https://search.trdizin.gov.tr/yayin/detay/2982/
  • Granger, C. W., & Newbold, P. (1974). Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of econometrics, 2(2), 111-120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(74)90034-7
  • Granger, C. W. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. https://doi.org/10.2307/1912791
  • Gurley, J. G., & Shaw. E. S. (1955). Financial aspects of economic development. The American Economic Review 45(4), 515-538. https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/1811632
  • Guru, B. K., & Yadav, I. S. (2019). Financial development and economic growth: panel evidence from BRICS. Journal of Economics, Finance and Administrative Science, 24(47), 113-126. https://doi.org/10.1108/JEFAS-12-2017-0125
  • Güneş, S. (2013). Finansal gelişmişlik ve büyüme arasındaki nedensellik testi: Türkiye örneği. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 14(1), 73-85. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/doujournal/issue/66668/1043094
  • Gürsoy, C. T., & Müslümov, A. (1999). Stock markets and economic growth: a Causality test. Doğuş Üniversitesi Dergisi, 1(2), 124-131. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/doujournal/issue/66643/1042808
  • Har, W. M., Ee, C. S., & Tan, C. T. (2008). Stock market and economic growth in Malaysia: Casuality test. Asian Social Science, 4(4), 86-92. https://doi.org/10.5539/ass.v4n4p86
  • Helhel, Y. (2017). E7 ülkelerinde finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik analizi. Finans Politik ve Ekonomik Yorumlar, (628), 9-18. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/fpeyd/issue/48015/607276
  • Ishioro, B. O. (2013). Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from Zimbabwe. Ekonomska misao i praksa, (2), 343-360. https://hrcak.srce.hr/112603
  • Kar, M., & Ağır, H. (2006). Menkul kıymet piyasaları, finansal kalkınma ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye örneği. İstanbul Üniversitesi İktisat Fakültesi Mecmuası, 56(1), 13-46. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/iuifm/issue/801/8721
  • Karaca, O. (2012). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için bir nedensellik analizi. Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 6(2), 85-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/joeep/issue/60720/955139
  • Karamelikli, H., & Kesgingöz, H. (2017). Finansal gelişme bileşenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 6(1), 683-701. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/itobiad/issue/27443/304378
  • Kaya, A. (2014). Menkul kıymet piyasaları ekonomik büyümenin bir dinamiği midir? Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik panel veri analizi. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 28(4), 285-307. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd/issue/2715/36061
  • Kazaz, F., & Demireli, E. (2022). Türkiye’de gösterge borsa endeksi’nin (Bist 100) makroekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Midas analizi. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(2), 824-839. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.970442
  • Kuş, N., & Bölükoğlu, A. (2022). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(2), 362-401. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1062138
  • Levine, R. (1990). Stock markets, growth, and policy (Vol. 374). World Bank. https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/484.html
  • McKinnon, R., I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/book/money-and-capital-in-economic-development/
  • Meçik, O., & Koyuncu, T. (2020). Türkiye'de göç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 9(3), 2618-2635. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.748770
  • Mohtadi, H., & Agarwal, S. (2001). Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from developing countries. On line] Available at: http//www. uwm. edu/mohadi/PA-4-01. pdf. https://www.academia.edu/24902731/Impact_of_Stock_Market_Development_on_Economic_Growth_Evidence_from_Lower_Middle_Income_Countries
  • Müslümov, A., & Aras, G. (2002). Sermaye piyasası gelişmesi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 17(198), 90-100. https://dx.doi.org/10.3848/iif.2002.198.8000
  • Naceur, S. B., & Ghazouani, S. (2007). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region. Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 297-315. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:297-315
  • Nur, T. (2021). Finansal açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 627-645. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.823635
  • Öztürk, F. (2016). Türkiye’de hisse senedi fiyatları ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişkinin analizi. Uluslararası yönetim iktisat ve işletme dergisi, 12(12), 86-94. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ijmeb/issue/54621/745022
  • Öztürk, İ. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 85-98. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v8y2008i1_7.html
  • Pan, L., & Mishra, V. (2018). Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 68, 661-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.005
  • Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/450153
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regressions. Biometrica, 75, 335- 346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
  • Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (2000). Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980–1995. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(12), 1933-1957. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(99)00123-5
  • Sağlam, Y., & Sönmez, F. E. (2017). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Avrupa geçiş ekonomileri örneği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 121-140. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.298769
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, MA. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674879904
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1912). The Theory of Economic Development, Tenth printing 2004, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674879904
  • Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford Univ. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978421
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, NY, 281-314. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
  • Tunalı, H., & Tuncer, E. (2015). Türkiye’de sermaye piyasası gelişimi ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Journal of the Faculty of Economics/Iktisat Fakültesi Mecmuasi, 65(2). https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/330197
  • Ünal, S. (2022). Finansal piyasaların Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesindeki rolü. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 14(27), 500-511. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1150481
  • Van Nieuwerburgh, S., Buelens, F., & Cuyvers, L. (2006). Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium. Explorations in Economic History, 43(1), 13-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2005.06.002
  • Yücel, F. (2009). Temel bileşenler yöntemiyle Türk sermaye piyasası gelişiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkilerinin bir analizi. Sosyo Ekonomi, 1, 78-86. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/21069/226845

BIST ŞİRKETLERİNİN TOPLAM PİYASA DEĞERLERİNİN GSYİH ÜZERİNDE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN 1999-2022 DÖNEMİ NARDL VE NEDENSELLİK UYGULAMASI

Yıl 2023, Sayı: 94, 172 - 190, 24.05.2023

Kudbeddin Şeker

https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1225501
Cited By: 1

Öz

Çeşitli alanlarda mal ve hizmet üreten BIST şirketleri ülke ekonomisine yön vermektedirler. Bu çalışmanın amacı BIST şirketlerinin toplam piyasa değerlerinin GSYİH üzerinde etkisini belirlemektir. Çalışmanın veri seti 1999-2022 dönemine ait (24 dönem) yıllık verilerden oluşmaktadır. BIST şirketlerinin toplam piyasa değerlerinin GSYİH üzerinde etkisini belirlemede simetrik ve asimetrik ilişkileri tespit edebilen NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) modeli kullanılmıştır. Kurulan modelde bağımlı değişken olarak Gayri Safi Yurt İçi Hasıla (GSYİH) ve bağımsız değişken olarak BIST şirketlerinin toplam piyasa değeri (TPD) yer almaktadır. NARDL analiz sonuçlarına göre modelde uzun dönemde bir simetri ilişkinin, kısa dönemde de bir asimetrik ilişki bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi sonuçları doğrultusunda yapılan Wald testlerine göre, TPD’ den GSYİH’ ye doğru %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde granger nedensellik olduğu, GSYİH’den TPD’ ye doğru Granger nedensellik olmadığı tespit edilmiştir. TPD’ den GSYİH’ ye doğru %1 anlamlılık düzeyinde Granger nedensellik arz öncüllü hipotezi destekleyici kanıtlar sunmaktadır.

Anahtar Kelimeler

Finansal gelişme Ekonomik büyüme NARDL modeli Toda-Yamamoto Granger nedensellik testi

Kaynakça

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  • Karaca, O. (2012). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme: Türkiye için bir nedensellik analizi. Journal of BRSA Banking & Financial Markets, 6(2), 85-101. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/joeep/issue/60720/955139
  • Karamelikli, H., & Kesgingöz, H. (2017). Finansal gelişme bileşenlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 6(1), 683-701. https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/itobiad/issue/27443/304378
  • Kaya, A. (2014). Menkul kıymet piyasaları ekonomik büyümenin bir dinamiği midir? Gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelere yönelik panel veri analizi. Ataturk University Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences, 28(4), 285-307. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/atauniiibd/issue/2715/36061
  • Kazaz, F., & Demireli, E. (2022). Türkiye’de gösterge borsa endeksi’nin (Bist 100) makroekonomik büyümeye etkisi: Midas analizi. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 21(2), 824-839. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.970442
  • Kuş, N., & Bölükoğlu, A. (2022). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Türkiye örneği. Fiscaoeconomia, 6(2), 362-401. https://doi.org/10.25295/fsecon.1062138
  • Levine, R. (1990). Stock markets, growth, and policy (Vol. 374). World Bank. https://ideas.repec.org/p/wbk/wbrwps/484.html
  • McKinnon, R., I. (1973). Money and Capital in Economic Development. Brookings Institution Press, Washington, DC. https://www.brookings.edu/book/money-and-capital-in-economic-development/
  • Meçik, O., & Koyuncu, T. (2020). Türkiye'de göç ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testi. Itobiad: Journal of the Human & Social Science Researches, 9(3), 2618-2635. https://doi.org/10.15869/itobiad.748770
  • Mohtadi, H., & Agarwal, S. (2001). Stock market development and economic growth: Evidence from developing countries. On line] Available at: http//www. uwm. edu/mohadi/PA-4-01. pdf. https://www.academia.edu/24902731/Impact_of_Stock_Market_Development_on_Economic_Growth_Evidence_from_Lower_Middle_Income_Countries
  • Müslümov, A., & Aras, G. (2002). Sermaye piyasası gelişmesi ve ekonomik büyüme arasında nedensellik ilişkisi: OECD ülkeleri örneği. İktisat İşletme ve Finans, 17(198), 90-100. https://dx.doi.org/10.3848/iif.2002.198.8000
  • Naceur, S. B., & Ghazouani, S. (2007). Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region. Research in International Business and Finance, 21(2), 297-315. https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:21:y:2007:i:2:p:297-315
  • Nur, T. (2021). Finansal açıklık, finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi: Türkiye üzerine eşbütünleşme ve nedensellik analizi. Ekonomi Politika ve Finans Araştırmaları Dergisi, 6(3), 627-645. https://doi.org/10.30784/epfad.823635
  • Öztürk, F. (2016). Türkiye’de hisse senedi fiyatları ve GSYİH arasındaki ilişkinin analizi. Uluslararası yönetim iktisat ve işletme dergisi, 12(12), 86-94. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/ijmeb/issue/54621/745022
  • Öztürk, İ. (2008). Financial development and economic growth: Evidence from Turkey. Applied Econometrics and International Development, 8(1), 85-98. https://ideas.repec.org/a/eaa/aeinde/v8y2008i1_7.html
  • Pan, L., & Mishra, V. (2018). Stock market development and economic growth: Empirical evidence from China. Economic Modelling, 68, 661-673. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2017.07.005
  • Patrick, H. T. (1966). Financial development and economic growth in underdeveloped countries. Economic Development and Cultural Change, 14(2), 174-189. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/450153
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
  • Phillips, P. C. B., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regressions. Biometrica, 75, 335- 346. https://doi.org/10.2307/2336182
  • Rousseau, P. L., & Wachtel, P. (2000). Equity markets and growth: Cross-country evidence on timing and outcomes, 1980–1995. Journal of Banking & Finance, 24(12), 1933-1957. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378-4266(99)00123-5
  • Sağlam, Y., & Sönmez, F. E. (2017). Finansal gelişme ve ekonomik büyüme arasındaki ilişki: Avrupa geçiş ekonomileri örneği. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Dergisi, 12(1), 121-140. https://doi.org/10.17153/oguiibf.298769
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Harvard Univ. Press, Cambridge, MA. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674879904
  • Schumpeter, J. A. (1912). The Theory of Economic Development, Tenth printing 2004, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, New Jersey. https://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674879904
  • Shaw, E. S. (1973). Financial Deepening in Economic Development. Oxford Univ. https://doi.org/10.2307/2978421
  • Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt, Springer, New York, NY, 281-314. https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
  • Toda, H. Y., & Yamamoto, T. (1995). Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes. Journal of econometrics, 66(1), 225-250. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-4076(94)01616-8
  • Tunalı, H., & Tuncer, E. (2015). Türkiye’de sermaye piyasası gelişimi ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi. Journal of the Faculty of Economics/Iktisat Fakültesi Mecmuasi, 65(2). https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/download/article-file/330197
  • Ünal, S. (2022). Finansal piyasaların Türkiye’nin ekonomik büyümesindeki rolü. Akademik Araştırmalar ve Çalışmalar Dergisi (AKAD), 14(27), 500-511. https://doi.org/10.20990/kilisiibfakademik.1150481
  • Van Nieuwerburgh, S., Buelens, F., & Cuyvers, L. (2006). Stock market development and economic growth in Belgium. Explorations in Economic History, 43(1), 13-38. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eeh.2005.06.002
  • Yücel, F. (2009). Temel bileşenler yöntemiyle Türk sermaye piyasası gelişiminin ekonomik büyüme üzerine etkilerinin bir analizi. Sosyo Ekonomi, 1, 78-86. https://dergipark.org.tr/tr/pub/sosyoekonomi/issue/21069/226845
Toplam 60 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Kudbeddin Şeker 0000-0001-6705-2890

Yayımlanma Tarihi 24 Mayıs 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Sayı: 94

Kaynak Göster

APA Şeker, K. (2023). BIST ŞİRKETLERİNİN TOPLAM PİYASA DEĞERLERİNİN GSYİH ÜZERİNDE ETKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN 1999-2022 DÖNEMİ NARDL VE NEDENSELLİK UYGULAMASI. EKEV Akademi Dergisi(94), 172-190. https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1225501

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