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THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MIGRANT EMPLOYMENT: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON CHOSEN OECD COUNTRİES

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 60, 471 - 493, 29.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229

Öz

March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic as a result of the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus, which appeared in Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019, to the whole world. The first effects of the pandemic on the economy were aimed at the employment market and triggered one of the worst employment crises since the Great Depression. The field of interest of this study is the effects of the process experienced due to the COVID-19 pandemic in developed countries on migrant employment. In this context, the aim of this study is to empirically investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affects migrant employment. For this purpose, Westerlund (2007) cointegration analysis was carried out with 17 OECD countries' data for the period 2020q1-2021q4. According to the results of the analysis, the cointegration relationship was determined and then long-term flexibilities were calculated with the AMG estimator. Accordingly, when COVID-19 cases increase by 1%, migrant employment decreases by 0.03%. In the study, panel VECM causality analysis was also performed and as a result, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between COVID-19 cases and migrant employment.

Kaynakça

  • Anam, M. Z., Wastio, T., Al-Fadhat, F., Pribadi, U. and Sugito, S. (2021). COVID-19 and Decent Work: Online Media Coverage on Indonesian Female Migrant Domestic Workers in Malaysia and Taiwan. Sociology and Technoscience, 11(2), 160-193. [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, COVID-19 and Decent Work: Online Media Coverage on Indonesian Female Migrant Domestic Workers in Malaysia and Taiwan (uva.es)]
  • Azeezi A. and Negib, D. P. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Migrant Women Workers in India. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 62(1), 93-112.
  • Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004). A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1177.
  • Barwinska-Malajowicz, A. and Tecza, K. (2021). (Pand)Economic Migration: An Attempt to Assess the COVID-19 Impact on European Migrant Workers Situations. European Research Studies Journal, 0(4), 678-690.
  • Beyaz, Z. (2021). Verilerle Pandemi Sürecinde Türkiye, Türkiye 'de COVID-19 Sürecinde Eşitsizliğin Bir Başka Görünümü: Mülteci İşçiler. Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık, 523-543.
  • Breush, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Bhagyashree, B., Malar, H., Noeline, G., Ghassan, I., Amin, A. and Mehrangiz, A. (2021). Crisis Within A Crisis: Migrant Workers’ Predicament During COVID-19 Lockdown and The Role of Non-Profit Organizations in India. Indian Journal of Human Development 15(1), 151–164.
  • BM, (2019). Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 19 December 2018, A/Res/73/195. New York. [Erişim Tarihi: 16.04.2022, https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/73/195] .
  • Bui, H. T. T., Duong, D. M., Pham, T. Q., Mirzoey, T., Bui, A. T. M. and La Q. N. (2021). COVID-19 Stressors on Migrant Workers in Vietnam: Cumulative Risk Consideration. International Journal of Environmental. Research and Public Health, 18(16), 8757, [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, COVID-19 Stressors on Migrant Workers in Vietnam: Cumulative Risk Consideration - PMC (nih.gov)]
  • Che, L., Du, H. and Chan K. W. (2020). Unequal Pain: A Sketch of The Impact of The COVID-19 Pandemic on Migrants’ Employment in China. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 61(4), 448-463.
  • Datt, G., Dutta, S. and Mishra, S. K. (2021). The COVID-19 Pandemic and Migrant Workers from Rural Bihar. CDES Working Paper No. 06/21, [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, WP2021n06_V1.pdf (monash.edu)]
  • Eberhart, M. and Bond, S. R. (2009). Cross-Sectional Dependence in Non-stationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P. and Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Hadri, K. (2000). Testing For Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161.
  • ILO (2021a). Locked Down and in Limbo: The global Impact of COVID-19 on Migrant Worker Rights and Recruitment. [Erişim Tarihi: 19.03.2022, Fair recruitment: Locked down and in limbo: The global impact of COVID-19 on migrant worker rights and recruitment (ilo.org)]
  • ILO (2021b). ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers - Results and Methodology. Third edition, International Labour Office, Geneva, [Erişim Tarihi: 19.04.2022, https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_808935.pdf]
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44.
  • Kolbaşı Muyan, G. (2020). COVİD-19 Sürecinde Göçmen İşçiler ve Uluslararası Çalışma Örgütünün Yaklaşımı. Karatahta İş Yazıları Dergisi, 16, 1-12.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymtotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Moon, H.R. and Perron, B. (2004). Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors. Journal of Econometrics, 122(1), 81-126.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. P. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. P. (1997). Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper, No. 1229.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Dection Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2003). Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence. The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 217-259.
  • UNODC, (2022). Unodc and the Sustaınable Development Goals. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime - UNODC, [Erişim Tarihi: 16 Mayıs, https://www.unodc.org/documents/SDGs/UNODC-SDG_brochure_LORES.pdf] ; [Erişim Tarihi: 16 Mayıs, https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/sustainable-development-goals.html#:~:text=Target%2010.7%20%2D%20Facilitate%20orderly%2C%20safe,and%20well%2Dmanaged%20migration%20policies]
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Westerlund, J. and Edgerton D. L. (2007). A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test. Economics Letters, 97(3), 185-190.
  • Yueping, S., Hantao, W., Xiao-yuan, D. and Zhili, W. (2021). To Return or Stay? The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Migrant Workers in China. Feminist Economics, 27(1-2), 236-253.

COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Yıl 2023, Cilt: 23 Sayı: 60, 471 - 493, 29.09.2023
https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229

Öz

31 Aralık 2019 tarihinde Çin’in Wuhan kentinde ortaya çıkan COVİD-19 virüsünün hızla tüm dünyaya yayılması sonucunda 11 Mart 2020 tarihinde Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (DSÖ) tarafından pandemi ilân edilmiştir. Pandeminin ekonomideki ilk etkileri istihdam piyasasına yönelik olmuş ve Büyük Buhran'dan bu yana yaşanan en kötü istihdam krizlerinden birini tetiklemiştir. Bu çalışmanın ilgi alanı da gelişmiş ülkelerde COVİD-19 salgını dolayısıyla yaşanan sürecin göçmen istihdamına yönelik etkileridir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmanın amacı, COVİD-19 pandemisinin göçmen istihdamını nasıl etkilediğini ampirik olarak araştırmaktır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak çalışmada, 17 OECD ülke ekonomisinin 2020q1-2021q4 dönemi üçer aylık verileriyle hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları itibarıyla eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve daha sonra AMG tahmincisiyle uzun dönem esneklikler hesaplanmıştır. Buna göre COVİD-19 vakaları %1 oranında arttığında göçmen istihdamı %0,03 oranında azalmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca panel VECM nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve sonucunda COVİD-19 vakaları ile göçmen istihdamı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Kaynakça

  • Anam, M. Z., Wastio, T., Al-Fadhat, F., Pribadi, U. and Sugito, S. (2021). COVID-19 and Decent Work: Online Media Coverage on Indonesian Female Migrant Domestic Workers in Malaysia and Taiwan. Sociology and Technoscience, 11(2), 160-193. [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, COVID-19 and Decent Work: Online Media Coverage on Indonesian Female Migrant Domestic Workers in Malaysia and Taiwan (uva.es)]
  • Azeezi A. and Negib, D. P. (2021). The Impact of COVID-19 on Migrant Women Workers in India. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 62(1), 93-112.
  • Bai, J. and Ng, S. (2004). A Panic Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration. Econometrica, 72(4), 1127-1177.
  • Barwinska-Malajowicz, A. and Tecza, K. (2021). (Pand)Economic Migration: An Attempt to Assess the COVID-19 Impact on European Migrant Workers Situations. European Research Studies Journal, 0(4), 678-690.
  • Beyaz, Z. (2021). Verilerle Pandemi Sürecinde Türkiye, Türkiye 'de COVID-19 Sürecinde Eşitsizliğin Bir Başka Görünümü: Mülteci İşçiler. Nobel Akademi Yayıncılık, 523-543.
  • Breush, T. S. and Pagan, A. R. (1980). The Lagrange Multiplier Test and Its Applications to Model Specification in Econometrics. The Review of Economic Studies, 47(1), 239-253.
  • Bhagyashree, B., Malar, H., Noeline, G., Ghassan, I., Amin, A. and Mehrangiz, A. (2021). Crisis Within A Crisis: Migrant Workers’ Predicament During COVID-19 Lockdown and The Role of Non-Profit Organizations in India. Indian Journal of Human Development 15(1), 151–164.
  • BM, (2019). Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration. Resolution adopted by the General Assembly on 19 December 2018, A/Res/73/195. New York. [Erişim Tarihi: 16.04.2022, https://www.un.org/en/ga/search/view_doc.asp?symbol=A/RES/73/195] .
  • Bui, H. T. T., Duong, D. M., Pham, T. Q., Mirzoey, T., Bui, A. T. M. and La Q. N. (2021). COVID-19 Stressors on Migrant Workers in Vietnam: Cumulative Risk Consideration. International Journal of Environmental. Research and Public Health, 18(16), 8757, [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, COVID-19 Stressors on Migrant Workers in Vietnam: Cumulative Risk Consideration - PMC (nih.gov)]
  • Che, L., Du, H. and Chan K. W. (2020). Unequal Pain: A Sketch of The Impact of The COVID-19 Pandemic on Migrants’ Employment in China. Eurasian Geography and Economics, 61(4), 448-463.
  • Datt, G., Dutta, S. and Mishra, S. K. (2021). The COVID-19 Pandemic and Migrant Workers from Rural Bihar. CDES Working Paper No. 06/21, [Erişim Tarihi: 06.04.2022, WP2021n06_V1.pdf (monash.edu)]
  • Eberhart, M. and Bond, S. R. (2009). Cross-Sectional Dependence in Non-stationary Panel Models: A Novel Estimator. MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Gengenbach, C., Urbain, J. P. and Westerlund, J. (2016). Error Correction Testing in Panels with Common Stochastic Trends. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 31(6), 982-1004.
  • Hadri, K. (2000). Testing For Stationarity in Heterogeneous Panel Data. Econometrics Journal, 3, 148-161.
  • ILO (2021a). Locked Down and in Limbo: The global Impact of COVID-19 on Migrant Worker Rights and Recruitment. [Erişim Tarihi: 19.03.2022, Fair recruitment: Locked down and in limbo: The global impact of COVID-19 on migrant worker rights and recruitment (ilo.org)]
  • ILO (2021b). ILO Global Estimates on International Migrant Workers - Results and Methodology. Third edition, International Labour Office, Geneva, [Erişim Tarihi: 19.04.2022, https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---dgreports/---dcomm/---publ/documents/publication/wcms_808935.pdf]
  • Im, K.S., Pesaran, M. H. and Shin, Y. (2003). Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels. Journal of Econometrics, 115, 53-74.
  • Kao, C. (1999). Spurious Regression and Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Panel Data. Journal of Econometrics, 90, 1-44.
  • Kolbaşı Muyan, G. (2020). COVİD-19 Sürecinde Göçmen İşçiler ve Uluslararası Çalışma Örgütünün Yaklaşımı. Karatahta İş Yazıları Dergisi, 16, 1-12.
  • Levin, A., Lin, C. and Chu, C. (2002). Unit Root Tests in Panel Data: Asymtotic and Finite-Sample Properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108, 1-24.
  • Moon, H.R. and Perron, B. (2004). Testing for a Unit Root in Panels with Dynamic Factors. Journal of Econometrics, 122(1), 81-126.
  • Pedroni, P. (2004). Panel Cointegration: Asymptotic and Finite Sample Properties of Pooled Time Series Tests with an Application to the PPP Hypothesis. Econometric Theory, 20, 597–625.
  • Pesaran, M. H. and Smith, R. P. (1995). Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels. Journal of Econometrics, 68(1), 79–113.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y. and Smith, R. P. (1997). Pooled Estimation of Long-run Relationships in Dynamic Heterogeneous Panels. University of Cambridge, Department of Applied Economics.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2004). General Diagnostic Tests for Cross Section Dependence in Panels. CESifo Working Paper, No. 1229.
  • Pesaran, M. H. (2007). A Simple Panel Unit Root Test in the Presence of Cross‐Section Dependence. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 22(2), 265–312.
  • Pesaran, M.H., Ullah, A. and Yamagata, T. (2008). A Bias-Adjusted LM Test of Error Cross-Dection Independence. The Econometrics Journal, 11(1), 105-127.
  • Phillips, P. C. B. and Sul, D. (2003). Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence. The Econometrics Journal, 6(1), 217-259.
  • UNODC, (2022). Unodc and the Sustaınable Development Goals. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime - UNODC, [Erişim Tarihi: 16 Mayıs, https://www.unodc.org/documents/SDGs/UNODC-SDG_brochure_LORES.pdf] ; [Erişim Tarihi: 16 Mayıs, https://www.unodc.org/roseap/en/sustainable-development-goals.html#:~:text=Target%2010.7%20%2D%20Facilitate%20orderly%2C%20safe,and%20well%2Dmanaged%20migration%20policies]
  • Westerlund, J. (2007). Testing for Error Correction in Panel Data. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 69(6), 709-748.
  • Westerlund, J. and Edgerton D. L. (2007). A Panel Bootstrap Cointegration Test. Economics Letters, 97(3), 185-190.
  • Yueping, S., Hantao, W., Xiao-yuan, D. and Zhili, W. (2021). To Return or Stay? The Gendered Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Migrant Workers in China. Feminist Economics, 27(1-2), 236-253.
Toplam 32 adet kaynakça vardır.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil Türkçe
Konular Göç, İşgücü, Göç ve Gelişme
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

İsmail Hakkı İşcan 0000-0003-2786-4928

Tuğba Demirel 0000-0003-2168-6497

Yayımlanma Tarihi 29 Eylül 2023
Yayımlandığı Sayı Yıl 2023 Cilt: 23 Sayı: 60

Kaynak Göster

APA İşcan, İ. H., & Demirel, T. (2023). COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi, 23(60), 471-493. https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229
AMA İşcan İH, Demirel T. COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi. Eylül 2023;23(60):471-493. doi:10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229
Chicago İşcan, İsmail Hakkı, ve Tuğba Demirel. “COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi 23, sy. 60 (Eylül 2023): 471-93. https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229.
EndNote İşcan İH, Demirel T (01 Eylül 2023) COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi 23 60 471–493.
IEEE İ. H. İşcan ve T. Demirel, “COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ”, Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 60, ss. 471–493, 2023, doi: 10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229.
ISNAD İşcan, İsmail Hakkı - Demirel, Tuğba. “COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi 23/60 (Eylül 2023), 471-493. https://doi.org/10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229.
JAMA İşcan İH, Demirel T. COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi. 2023;23:471–493.
MLA İşcan, İsmail Hakkı ve Tuğba Demirel. “COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ”. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi, c. 23, sy. 60, 2023, ss. 471-93, doi:10.21560/spcd.vi.1188229.
Vancouver İşcan İH, Demirel T. COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ. Sosyal Politika Çalışmaları Dergisi. 2023;23(60):471-93.