Year 2020, Volume , Issue 20, Pages 353 - 372 2020-10-23

EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC POLICY UNCERTAINTY AND G7 STOCK MARKETS

Eray GEMİCİ [1]


Savaş, finansal krizler ve siyasi seçimler gibi durumlarda ortaya çıkan belirsizlik kavramı, ekonomik birimlerin alacağı kararlar üzerinde oldukça etkili olmaktadır. Belirsizliğin olduğu bir ortam, yatırımcıların ekonomiye olan güvenini olumsuz etkilemektedir. Belirsizliğin yarattığı olumsuz etkilerin gözlemlenebildiği alanlardan birisi de ülke borsalarıdır. Bu çalışma, G7 gelişmiş ülke piyasalarında ekonomi politikası belirsizliği endeksi ile borsa arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmaktadır. Bu amaçla, 1997'den 2019'a kadar olan aylık dönem, gözlemlenen piyasalar arasındaki olası yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ikinci nesil panel veri metodolojileri ile incelenmiştir. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin G7 ülke borsa endeksleri üzerindeki uzun dönem etkisinin tahmin edilmesinde, ülkeler arasında gözlemlenen yatay kesit bağımlılığını dikkate alan ortak ilişkili etkiler (CCE) tahmincisi kullanılmıştır. Ekonomi politikası belirsizliği endeksi ile G7 ülke borsa endeksleri arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ise yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve heterojeniteyi dikkate alan panel nedensellik testi ile incelenmiştir. Sonuçlar, ekonomi politikası belirsizliğinin G7 ülke borsa endekslerini uzun vadede olumsuz etkilediğini göstermektedir. Ayrıca, panel nedensellik test sonuçları, ekonomi politikası belirsizliği ile G7 ülke borsaları arasında çift yönlü nedensellik olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.
The concept of uncertainty, which emerges in situations such as war, financial crises, and political elections, has a great influence on the decisions of economic units. An environment of uncertainty negatively affects investors' confidence in the economy. One of the areas where the negative effects of uncertainty can be observed is country stock markets. This study explores the relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and stock exchange in G7 developed markets. For this purpose, the monthly period from 1997 to 2019 is examined with second-generation panel data methodologies to consider the possible cross-sectional dependence among observed markets. In estimating the long-term effect of the economic policy uncertainty on the G7 country stock market indices, the Common Correlated Effect (CCE) estimator, which considers the cross-sectional dependency observed between countries. The causality relationship between the economic policy uncertainty index and the G7 country stock market indexes is examined with the panel causality test, which considers the cross-section dependency and heterogeneity. The results show that economic policy uncertainty negatively affects the G7 stock market indices in the long term. On the other hand, the panel causality test results reveal that there is bidirectional causality between economic policy uncertainty and financial markets.
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Primary Language tr
Subjects Management
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Orcid: 0000-0001-5449-0568
Author: Eray GEMİCİ (Primary Author)
Institution: Gaziantep Üniversitesi
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : October 23, 2020

Bibtex @research article { busbed732124, journal = {Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi}, issn = {1309-6672}, eissn = {2618-6322}, address = {Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Müdürlüğü 12100, Merkez Bingöl}, publisher = {Bingol University}, year = {2020}, volume = {}, pages = {353 - 372}, doi = {10.29029/busbed.732124}, title = {EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ}, key = {cite}, author = {Gemi̇ci̇, Eray} }
APA Gemi̇ci̇, E . (2020). EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ . Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi , (20) , 353-372 . DOI: 10.29029/busbed.732124
MLA Gemi̇ci̇, E . "EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ" . Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (2020 ): 353-372 <http://busbed.bingol.edu.tr/en/pub/issue/57327/732124>
Chicago Gemi̇ci̇, E . "EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ". Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi (2020 ): 353-372
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ AU - Eray Gemi̇ci̇ Y1 - 2020 PY - 2020 N1 - doi: 10.29029/busbed.732124 DO - 10.29029/busbed.732124 T2 - Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 353 EP - 372 VL - IS - 20 SN - 1309-6672-2618-6322 M3 - doi: 10.29029/busbed.732124 UR - https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.732124 Y2 - 2020 ER -
EndNote %0 Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ %A Eray Gemi̇ci̇ %T EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ %D 2020 %J Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi %P 1309-6672-2618-6322 %V %N 20 %R doi: 10.29029/busbed.732124 %U 10.29029/busbed.732124
ISNAD Gemi̇ci̇, Eray . "EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ". Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi / 20 (October 2020): 353-372 . https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.732124
AMA Gemi̇ci̇ E . EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2020; (20): 353-372.
Vancouver Gemi̇ci̇ E . EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ. Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi. 2020; (20): 353-372.
IEEE E. Gemi̇ci̇ , "EKONOMİ POLİTİKASI BELİRSİZLİĞİ İLE G7 ÜLKE BORSALARI İLİŞKİ BELİRSİZLİĞİ ÜLKE BORSALARI ARASINDAKİ İLİŞKİ", Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, no. 20, pp. 353-372, Oct. 2020, doi:10.29029/busbed.732124