Research Article
ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF CREDITS PROVIDED WITHIN THE SCOPE OF SME BANKING ON EMPLOYMENT: RALS-FOURIER ADL COINTEGRATION TEST
Abstract
The present study uses time series analysis to reveal the impact of credits provided to SMEs within the scope of SME banking on the general employment numbers in Türkiye. Data on the balances of SME credits provided by development and investment, participation and deposit banks, and employment numbers were collected. The range covered by the data period is 2006Q4-2023Q4. Among the methods utilized are the Fourier Augmented Dickey-Fuller (FADF) unit root test, the Fourier Autoregressive Distributive Lag (FADL) cointegration test, the Extended Least Squares with Error Terms (RALS-FADL) cointegration test, and the Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) causality test. The findings reveal that a 1% increase in the balance of SME credits provided by participation and deposit banks increases employment numbers by approximately 0.019% and 0.087%, respectively. The balance of SME credits provided by development and investment banks does not affect employment numbers. This findings are confirmed by the finding of the causality test. It is clear that SME credits provided in the Turkish banking sector positively affect employment in the country. Therefore, SMEs should be supported with credits under reasonable conditions to create more employment.
Keywords
References
- Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier adl cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.004
- BDDK. (2023). KOBİ kredileri (milyon TL), dönem: 2006/12-2023/12. https://www.bddk.org.tr/BultenAylik
- Brixiová, Z., Kangoye, T., & Yogo, T. U. (2020). Access to finance among small and medium-sized enterprises and job creation in Africa. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 177-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.08.008
- Cornille, D., Rycx, F., & Tojerow, I. (2017). Working paper research. https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp333en.pdf
- Cornille, D., Rycx, F., & Tojerow, I. (2019). Heterogeneous effects of credit constraints on smes’ employment: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, 41, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2019.02.001
- Dunford, C. (2012). What if we turn the microfinance theory of change on its head? The Evidence Project.
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible fourier form and dickey-fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
- Eryılmaz, S., Öksüz, M. S., & Zeren, F. (2021). Kobi kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 75-93. https://doi.org/10.24889/ifede.929855
- Fouejieu, A., Ndoye, A., & Sydorenko, T. (2020). Unlocking access to finance for smes: A cross-country analysis. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/03/13/Unlocking-Access-to-Finance-for-SMEs-A-Cross-Country-Analysis-49243
- Gerlach-Kristen, P., O’Connell, B., & O’Toole, C. (2015). Do credit constraints affect sme investment and employment? The Economic and Social Review, 46(1), 51-86.
- Ghassibe, M., Appendino, M., & Mahmoudi, S. E. (2019). Sme financial inclusion for sustained growth in the Middle East and Central Asia. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/09/27/SME-Financial-Inclusion-for-Sustained-Growth-in-the-Middle-East-and-Central-Asia-48534
- Gök, M. (2022). Pandemi ve ekonomik durgunluk sürecinde kobi’ler ve sosyoekonomik önemi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(3), 3381-3403. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1143412
- Hazine Müsteşarlığı. (2007). KOBİ kredileri izleme raporu 1999-2005. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr›uploads›2018/11›2-2006_KOBI_RAPORU
- Masuduzzaman, M., Parveen, F., Ara, S., & Akhter, M. (2018). The role of small and medium enterprises (smes) loans on employment generation: Bangladesh perspective. Thoughts on Banking and Finance, 7(2), 148-161.
- Moreira, D. F. (2016). The microeconomic impact on growth of smes when the access to finance widens: Evidence from internet & high-tech industry. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, 278-287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.500
- Nazlıoğlu, Ş., Görmüş, N. A., & Soytaş, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (reits): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
- Orji, A., Ideba, E. T., Mba, P. N., Ogbuabor, J. E., Suleiman, Y., Yusuf, Y., & Anthony-Orji, O. I. (2023). Does access to sme credit enhance employment generation in developing countries? A new evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University, 19(6), 302-324.
- Resmi Gazete. (2023). Küçük ve orta büyüklükteki işletmeler yönetmeliği. https://webdosya.kosgeb.gov.tr/Content/Upload/Dosya/Mevzuat/2023/Küçük_ve_Orta_Büyüklükteki_İşletmeler_Yönetmeliği.pdf
- Seo, J. Y. (2017). A study of effective financial support for smes to improve economic and employment conditions: Evidence from OECD countries. Managerial and Decision Economics, 38(3), 432-442. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.2838
- TKBB. (2024). Genel görünüm. https://tkbb.org.tr/veripetegi-detay/5
- Tran, Q., Doan, A. T., & Tran, T. (2021). Small and medium enterprises’ credit access, ownership structure and job development. Australian Economic Papers, 60(4), 710-735. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12227
- TÜİK. (2023). Küçük ve orta büyüklükteki girişim istatistikleri, 2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Kucuk-ve-Orta-Buyuklukteki-Girisim-Istatistikleri-2022-49438
- TÜİK. (2024a). İşgücü istatistikleri, 2023. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2023-53521#:~:text=İşgücü%202023%20yılında%20bir%20önceki,ise%205%2C8%20oldu.
- TÜİK. (2024b). Mevsim etkisinden arındırılmış sektöre göre istihdam edilenler. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=istihdam-issizlik-ve-ucret-108&dil=1
- Ulusoy, R., & Akarsu, R. (2012). Türkiye’de kobi’lere yapılan destekler ve istihdam üzerindeki etkileri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23, 105-126.
- Watambwa, L., & Shilongo, D. (2021). An analysis of the impact of sme financing on economic growth in Zimbabwe. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3779488
- Yılancı, V., Ulucak, R., Zhang, Y., & Andreoni, V. (2023). The role of affluence, urbanization, and human capital for sustainable forest management in China: Robust findings from a new method of fourier cointegration. Sustainable Development, 31(2), 812-824. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2421
KOBİ BANKACILIĞI KAPSAMINDA KULLANDIRILAN KREDİLERİN İSTİHDAMA ETKİSİNİN ANALİZİ: RALS-FOURİER ADL EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİ
Abstract
Bu çalışmada KOBİ bankacılığı kapsamında KOBİ’lere kullandırılan kredilerin Türkiye’deki genel istihdam sayısına etkisini zaman serisi analiziyle ortaya koymak amaçlanmaktadır. Analiz için kalkınma ve yatırım, katılım ve mevduat bankaları tarafından kullandırılan KOBİ kredilerinin bakiyelerine ve istihdam sayısına ilişkin veriler toplanmıştır. Veri dönemi, 2006Q4-2023Q4 aralığını kapsamaktadır. Uygulanan yöntemler arasında Fourier Artırılmış Dickey-Fuller (FADF) birim kök testi, Fourier Otoregresif Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış (FADL) eşbütünleşme testinin yanı sıra Hata Terimleriyle Genişletilmiş En Küçük Kareler (RALS-FADL) eşbütünleşme testi ve Fourier Toda-Yamamoto (FTY) nedensellik testi bulunmaktadır. Bulgulara göre katılım ve mevduat bankaları tarafından kullandırılan KOBİ kredilerinin bakiyesinde yaşanan %1 yükseliş istihdam sayısını sırasıyla yaklaşık %0,019 ve %0,087 oranında artırmaktadır. Kalkınma ve yatırım bankalarının KOBİ kredilerinin bakiyesi ise istihdam sayısını herhangi bir şekilde etkilememektedir. Bu bulgular, nedensellik testinin bulgusuyla doğrulanmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, Türk bankacılık sektöründe kullandırılan KOBİ kredilerinin ülkedeki istihdamı olumlu yönde etkilediği ve dolayısıyla KOBİ’lerin daha fazla istihdam yaratabilmeleri için makul şartlar altında kredilerle desteklenmeleri gerektiği açıktır.
References
- Banerjee, P., Arčabić, V., & Lee, H. (2017). Fourier adl cointegration test to approximate smooth breaks with new evidence from Crude Oil Market. Economic Modelling, 67, 114-124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.11.004
- BDDK. (2023). KOBİ kredileri (milyon TL), dönem: 2006/12-2023/12. https://www.bddk.org.tr/BultenAylik
- Brixiová, Z., Kangoye, T., & Yogo, T. U. (2020). Access to finance among small and medium-sized enterprises and job creation in Africa. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 55, 177-189. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2020.08.008
- Cornille, D., Rycx, F., & Tojerow, I. (2017). Working paper research. https://www.nbb.be/doc/ts/publications/wp/wp333en.pdf
- Cornille, D., Rycx, F., & Tojerow, I. (2019). Heterogeneous effects of credit constraints on smes’ employment: Evidence from the European sovereign debt crisis. Journal of Financial Stability, 41, 1-13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2019.02.001
- Dunford, C. (2012). What if we turn the microfinance theory of change on its head? The Evidence Project.
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible fourier form and dickey-fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
- Eryılmaz, S., Öksüz, M. S., & Zeren, F. (2021). Kobi kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme ve istihdam üzerine etkisi: Türkiye örneği. Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İşletme Fakültesi Dergisi, 22(1), 75-93. https://doi.org/10.24889/ifede.929855
- Fouejieu, A., Ndoye, A., & Sydorenko, T. (2020). Unlocking access to finance for smes: A cross-country analysis. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2020/03/13/Unlocking-Access-to-Finance-for-SMEs-A-Cross-Country-Analysis-49243
- Gerlach-Kristen, P., O’Connell, B., & O’Toole, C. (2015). Do credit constraints affect sme investment and employment? The Economic and Social Review, 46(1), 51-86.
- Ghassibe, M., Appendino, M., & Mahmoudi, S. E. (2019). Sme financial inclusion for sustained growth in the Middle East and Central Asia. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2019/09/27/SME-Financial-Inclusion-for-Sustained-Growth-in-the-Middle-East-and-Central-Asia-48534
- Gök, M. (2022). Pandemi ve ekonomik durgunluk sürecinde kobi’ler ve sosyoekonomik önemi. Alanya Akademik Bakış, 6(3), 3381-3403. https://doi.org/10.29023/alanyaakademik.1143412
- Hazine Müsteşarlığı. (2007). KOBİ kredileri izleme raporu 1999-2005. https://ms.hmb.gov.tr›uploads›2018/11›2-2006_KOBI_RAPORU
- Masuduzzaman, M., Parveen, F., Ara, S., & Akhter, M. (2018). The role of small and medium enterprises (smes) loans on employment generation: Bangladesh perspective. Thoughts on Banking and Finance, 7(2), 148-161.
- Moreira, D. F. (2016). The microeconomic impact on growth of smes when the access to finance widens: Evidence from internet & high-tech industry. Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, 220, 278-287. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2016.05.500
- Nazlıoğlu, Ş., Görmüş, N. A., & Soytaş, U. (2016). Oil prices and real estate investment trusts (reits): Gradual-shift causality and volatility transmission analysis. Energy Economics, 60, 168-175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2016.09.009
- Orji, A., Ideba, E. T., Mba, P. N., Ogbuabor, J. E., Suleiman, Y., Yusuf, Y., & Anthony-Orji, O. I. (2023). Does access to sme credit enhance employment generation in developing countries? A new evidence from Nigeria. Journal of Xi’an Shiyou University, 19(6), 302-324.
- Resmi Gazete. (2023). Küçük ve orta büyüklükteki işletmeler yönetmeliği. https://webdosya.kosgeb.gov.tr/Content/Upload/Dosya/Mevzuat/2023/Küçük_ve_Orta_Büyüklükteki_İşletmeler_Yönetmeliği.pdf
- Seo, J. Y. (2017). A study of effective financial support for smes to improve economic and employment conditions: Evidence from OECD countries. Managerial and Decision Economics, 38(3), 432-442. https://doi.org/10.1002/mde.2838
- TKBB. (2024). Genel görünüm. https://tkbb.org.tr/veripetegi-detay/5
- Tran, Q., Doan, A. T., & Tran, T. (2021). Small and medium enterprises’ credit access, ownership structure and job development. Australian Economic Papers, 60(4), 710-735. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12227
- TÜİK. (2023). Küçük ve orta büyüklükteki girişim istatistikleri, 2022. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Kucuk-ve-Orta-Buyuklukteki-Girisim-Istatistikleri-2022-49438
- TÜİK. (2024a). İşgücü istatistikleri, 2023. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-2023-53521#:~:text=İşgücü%202023%20yılında%20bir%20önceki,ise%205%2C8%20oldu.
- TÜİK. (2024b). Mevsim etkisinden arındırılmış sektöre göre istihdam edilenler. https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=istihdam-issizlik-ve-ucret-108&dil=1
- Ulusoy, R., & Akarsu, R. (2012). Türkiye’de kobi’lere yapılan destekler ve istihdam üzerindeki etkileri. Kocaeli Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi, 23, 105-126.
- Watambwa, L., & Shilongo, D. (2021). An analysis of the impact of sme financing on economic growth in Zimbabwe. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3779488
- Yılancı, V., Ulucak, R., Zhang, Y., & Andreoni, V. (2023). The role of affluence, urbanization, and human capital for sustainable forest management in China: Robust findings from a new method of fourier cointegration. Sustainable Development, 31(2), 812-824. https://doi.org/10.1002/sd.2421
There are 27 citations in total.
Details
| Primary Language | Turkish |
|---|---|
| Subjects | Time-Series Analysis, Employment, Monetary-Banking |
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Early Pub Date | October 27, 2024 |
| Publication Date | October 30, 2024 |
| Submission Date | May 10, 2024 |
| Acceptance Date | September 10, 2024 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2024Issue: 28 |
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