Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 9 Sayı: 18, 1067 - 1088, 21.10.2019
Öz
In this study, the existence of the co-integration and causality relationship between the variables of “education expenses” and “economic growth” in the Turkish economy during the 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 period have been tested by means of the Engle-Granger co-integration test and causality analysis based on error correction model. According to the results of the co-integration analysis, at least one co-integration vector has been detected between these two variables. The results of causality analysis, in turn have revealed that economic growth is in fact not the cause of education expenses in the short and long terms; however, education expenses happen to be the cause of economic growth only in the long term. In this regard; it is obvious that the education expenditures, which are crucial for the cultivation of human capital per se, are the main triggers of economic growth. Although educational expenses, which are deemed particularly important especially in advanced economies of the world, don’t have causality effect on the short term economic growth in Turkey, which is a developing country; this fact shouldn’t be interpreted as educational expenses not having a qualitative effect on on economic growth.
Kaynakça
- ABDULLAH, Abdul Jabbar (2013), “Education and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Issues of Education Data”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 7, pp. 65-72.ADETUNJİ BABATUNDE, Musibau ve Adetunji Adefabi, Rasak (2005), “Long Run Relationship between Education and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from the Johansen’s Cointegration Approach”, Regional Conference on Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities, Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, pp. 1-21.AFZAL, Muhammad, Rehman, Hafeez Ur, Farooq, Muhammad ve Sarwar, Kafeel (2011), “Education and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, International Journal of Educational Research, 50, pp. 321-335.BARRO, Robert J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp. 407-443._____________________(2013), “Education and Economic Growth”, Annals Of Economıcs And Fınance, 14(2), pp. 277-304BECKER, Gary (1964), Human Capital, New York: Columbia University Press.BENHABIB, Jess ve Spiegel, Mark M. (1994), “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data.”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, pp. 143-173.BOWMAN, Mary Jean ve Anderson, C. Arnold (1963), Concerning the Role of Education in Development, in Clifford Geertz, Old Societies and New States , New York: Free Press.CHAUDHARY, Amatul R., Iqbal, Asım ve Gillani, Syed Yasir Mahmood (2009), “The Nexus between Higher Education and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 3, pp. 1-9.COHEN, Daniel ve Soto, Marcelo (2007), “Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results”, Journal of Economic Growth, 12, pp. 51-76 CONRAD, Daren (2017), “Education’s Contribution to Economic Growth”, MPRA Paper, No:77365, pp. 1-25. ÇOBAN, Orhan (2004), “Beşeri Sermayenin İktisadi Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi”, I.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi, 30, ss. 131-142. DE MEULEMEESTER, Jean-Luc ve Rochat, Denis (1995), “A Causality Analysis of The Link Between Higher Education and Economic Development”, Economics of Education Review, 14(4), pp. 351-361.DENISON, Edward F. (1962), “Education, Economic Growth, and Gaps in Information”, The Journal of Political Economy, 70(5-2), pp. 124 - 128___________________ (1967), Why growth rates differ? , The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.DEVARAJAN, Shantayanan, Swaroop, Vinaya ve Zou, Heng-Fu (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, pp. 313-344.DICKEY, David A. ve Fuller, Wayne A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), pp. 1057-1072.ENDERS, Walter (1995), Applied Econometris Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, New York.ENGLE, Robert F. ve Granger, Clive W. J. (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251-276.GENÇ, Murat Can, Değer, Mustafa Kemal ve Berber, Metin, “Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi”, 7. Uluslararası Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, Yalova, ss. 53-65.GLEWWE, Paul, Maiga, Eugenie ve Zheng, Haochi (2014), “The Contribution of Education to Economic Growth: A Review of the Evidence, with Special Attention and An Application to Sub-Saharan Africa”, World Development, 59, pp. 379-393.GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, pp. 199-211.GUJARATI, D.N (1999), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev. Ü. ŞENESEN & G.G. ŞENESEN), İstanbul, Literatür Yayınları.GYIMAH-BREMPONG, Kwabena, Paddison, Oliver ve Mitiku, Workie (2006), “Higher Education and Economic Growth in Africa”, The Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), pp. 509-529.HARBISON, Frederick H. (1971), “Human Resources As the Wealth of Nations”, American Philosophical Society, 115(6), pp. 426-431.JALIL, Abdul ve Idrees, Muhammad (2013), “Modeling The Impact of Education on The Economic Growth: Evidence from aggregated and disaggregated time series data of Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 31, pp. 383-388.KARAÇOR, Zeynep, Güvenek, Burcu, Ekinci, Esra ve Konya, Sevilay (2017), “Relatıonship with Education Expenditure and Economıc Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis”, Macroeconomics, pp. 255-269.KIKER, B.F. (1966), “The Historical Roots of the Concept of Human Capital”, Journal of Political Economy, 74(5), pp. 481-499.LENKEI, Balint, Ghulam, Mustafa ve Vecchi, Michela (2018), “Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There A Role for Education?”, Economic Modelling, 73, pp. 240-253.LEVİNE, Ross ve Renelt, David (1992), “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 82(4), pp. 942-963.LUCAS, Robert E. (1967), “Adjustment Costs and The Theory of Supply”, The Journal of Political Economy, 75(4), pp. 321-334.______________(1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp. 3-42._______________(1990), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries”, American Economic Review, 80(2), pp. 92-96.MALLICK, Lingaraj, Das, Pradeep Kumar ve Pradhan, Kalandi Charan (2016), “Impact of educational expenditure on Economic Growth in Major Asian Countries: Evidence from Econometric Analysis”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(2), pp. 173-186.MANKIW, N.G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth “, Quarterly Journal of Economics , 107, ss. 407 –437.MARIANA, Dragoescu Raluca (2015), “Education As A Determinant of The Economic Growth. The Case of Romania”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 197, pp. 404-412.MERCAN, Mehmet ve Sezer, Sevgi (2014), “The Effect of Education Expenditure on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, pp. 925-930.MICHAELOWA, Katharina (2000), “Returns to Education in Low Income Countries: Evidence for Africa”, Annual meeting of the Committee on Developing Countries of the German Economic Association, Germany, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Katharina_Michaelowa/publication/254700109_Returns_to_Education_in_Low_Income_Countries_Evidence_for_Africa/links/553f57e00cf24c6a05d2032f.pdf.NELSON, Richard R. ve Phelps, Edmund, S. (1966), “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economıc Growth”, American Economic Review, 56(1-2), pp. 69-75.OWUSU-NANTWI, Victor (2015), “Education Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(16), pp. 69-77.ÖZSOY, Ceyda (2009), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Var Modeli İle Analizi”, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, 4, ss. 71-83.PAMUK, Mürüvvet ve Bektaş, Hakan (2014), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(2), ss. 77-90.ROMER, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp. 1002-1037. ___________(1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, The Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71-102.SELF, Sharmistha ve Grabowski, Richard (2004), “Does Education at All Levels Cause Growth? India, A Case Study”, Economics of Education Review, pp. 47-55.SCHULTZ, Theodore (1961), “Investment in Human Capital”, American Economic Review, 51, pp. 1 – 17.SOLOW, Robert M. (1956), “A contribution to The Theory of economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65-94.TABAN, Sami ve Kar, Muhsin (2006), “Beşeri Sermaye ve Ekonomik Büyüme Nedensellik Analizi, 1969-2001”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 159-182.TAYO, Lionel Douanla ve Fouda, Marcel Olivier Abomo (2015), “Government Spending in Education and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach”, MPRA Paper, No: 62008, pp. 1-13.UÇAN, Okyay ve Yeşilyurt, Hilal (2016), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi”, Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(2), ss. 179-185.YAN, Yingying (2011), “The Impact of Education on Economic Growth in China”, 2011 International Conference on e-Education, Entertainment and e-Management, pp. 202-204.
Yıl 2019,
Cilt: 9 Sayı: 18, 1067 - 1088, 21.10.2019
Öz
Bu çalışmada, 2003:Q1-2018:Q2 dönemi için Türkiye ekonomisine ait eğitim harcamaları ve ekonomik büyüme değişkenleri arasındaki eş bütünleşme ve nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığı Engle-Granger eşbütünleşme testi ve hata düzeltme modeline dayalı nedensellik analizi kullanılarak sınanmıştır. Eşbütünleşme analizinden elde edilen sonuçlara göre, iki değişken arasında en az bir eşbütünleşme vektörünün olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Nedensellik analizi sonucunda ise ekonomik büyümenin kısa ve uzun dönemde eğitim harcamalarının nedeni olmadığı tespit edilmekle birlikte eğitim harcamalarının sadece uzun dönemde ekonomik büyümenin nedeni olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bağlamda beşeri sermayenin yetiştirilmesinde son derece önemli olan eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme için tetikleyici olduğu aşikârdır. Özellikle gelişmiş ekonomilerin ağırlık verdiği eğitim harcamaları, gelişmekte olan ekonomilerden bir olan Türkiye’de ekonomik büyüme için kısa dönemde nedensellik etkisi taşımıyor olsa da bu durum eğitim harcamalarının ekonomik büyüme üzerinde nitelikli bir etki yaratmadığı şeklinde yorumlanmamalıdır.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- ABDULLAH, Abdul Jabbar (2013), “Education and Economic Growth in Malaysia: The Issues of Education Data”, Procedia Economics and Finance, 7, pp. 65-72.ADETUNJİ BABATUNDE, Musibau ve Adetunji Adefabi, Rasak (2005), “Long Run Relationship between Education and Economic Growth in Nigeria: Evidence from the Johansen’s Cointegration Approach”, Regional Conference on Education in West Africa: Constraints and Opportunities, Dakar, Senegal, November 1-2, pp. 1-21.AFZAL, Muhammad, Rehman, Hafeez Ur, Farooq, Muhammad ve Sarwar, Kafeel (2011), “Education and Economic Growth in Pakistan: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis”, International Journal of Educational Research, 50, pp. 321-335.BARRO, Robert J. (1991), “Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Countries”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106(2), pp. 407-443._____________________(2013), “Education and Economic Growth”, Annals Of Economıcs And Fınance, 14(2), pp. 277-304BECKER, Gary (1964), Human Capital, New York: Columbia University Press.BENHABIB, Jess ve Spiegel, Mark M. (1994), “The Role of Human Capital in Economic Development: Evidence from Aggregate Cross-Country Data.”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 34, pp. 143-173.BOWMAN, Mary Jean ve Anderson, C. Arnold (1963), Concerning the Role of Education in Development, in Clifford Geertz, Old Societies and New States , New York: Free Press.CHAUDHARY, Amatul R., Iqbal, Asım ve Gillani, Syed Yasir Mahmood (2009), “The Nexus between Higher Education and Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Pakistan”, Pakistan Journal of Commerce and Social Sciences, 3, pp. 1-9.COHEN, Daniel ve Soto, Marcelo (2007), “Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results”, Journal of Economic Growth, 12, pp. 51-76 CONRAD, Daren (2017), “Education’s Contribution to Economic Growth”, MPRA Paper, No:77365, pp. 1-25. ÇOBAN, Orhan (2004), “Beşeri Sermayenin İktisadi Büyüme Üzerine Etkisi”, I.Ü. Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi, 30, ss. 131-142. DE MEULEMEESTER, Jean-Luc ve Rochat, Denis (1995), “A Causality Analysis of The Link Between Higher Education and Economic Development”, Economics of Education Review, 14(4), pp. 351-361.DENISON, Edward F. (1962), “Education, Economic Growth, and Gaps in Information”, The Journal of Political Economy, 70(5-2), pp. 124 - 128___________________ (1967), Why growth rates differ? , The Brookings Institution, Washington D.C.DEVARAJAN, Shantayanan, Swaroop, Vinaya ve Zou, Heng-Fu (1996), “The Composition of Public Expenditure and Economic Growth”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 37, pp. 313-344.DICKEY, David A. ve Fuller, Wayne A. (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root”, Econometrica, 49(4), pp. 1057-1072.ENDERS, Walter (1995), Applied Econometris Time Series, John Wiley & Sons, New York.ENGLE, Robert F. ve Granger, Clive W. J. (1987), “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation and Testing”, Econometrica, 55(2), pp. 251-276.GENÇ, Murat Can, Değer, Mustafa Kemal ve Berber, Metin, “Beşeri Sermaye, İhracat ve Ekonomik Büyüme: Türkiye Ekonomisi Üzerine Nedensellik Analizi”, 7. Uluslararası Bilgi, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Kongresi Bildiriler Kitabı, Yalova, ss. 53-65.GLEWWE, Paul, Maiga, Eugenie ve Zheng, Haochi (2014), “The Contribution of Education to Economic Growth: A Review of the Evidence, with Special Attention and An Application to Sub-Saharan Africa”, World Development, 59, pp. 379-393.GRANGER, Clive W.J. (1988), “Some Recent Developments in a Concept of Causality”, Journal of Econometrics, 39, pp. 199-211.GUJARATI, D.N (1999), Temel Ekonometri, (Çev. Ü. ŞENESEN & G.G. ŞENESEN), İstanbul, Literatür Yayınları.GYIMAH-BREMPONG, Kwabena, Paddison, Oliver ve Mitiku, Workie (2006), “Higher Education and Economic Growth in Africa”, The Journal of Development Studies, 42(3), pp. 509-529.HARBISON, Frederick H. (1971), “Human Resources As the Wealth of Nations”, American Philosophical Society, 115(6), pp. 426-431.JALIL, Abdul ve Idrees, Muhammad (2013), “Modeling The Impact of Education on The Economic Growth: Evidence from aggregated and disaggregated time series data of Pakistan”, Economic Modelling, 31, pp. 383-388.KARAÇOR, Zeynep, Güvenek, Burcu, Ekinci, Esra ve Konya, Sevilay (2017), “Relatıonship with Education Expenditure and Economıc Growth in OECD Countries: A Panel Data Analysis”, Macroeconomics, pp. 255-269.KIKER, B.F. (1966), “The Historical Roots of the Concept of Human Capital”, Journal of Political Economy, 74(5), pp. 481-499.LENKEI, Balint, Ghulam, Mustafa ve Vecchi, Michela (2018), “Growth in Emerging Economies: Is There A Role for Education?”, Economic Modelling, 73, pp. 240-253.LEVİNE, Ross ve Renelt, David (1992), “A Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth Regressions”, American Economic Review, 82(4), pp. 942-963.LUCAS, Robert E. (1967), “Adjustment Costs and The Theory of Supply”, The Journal of Political Economy, 75(4), pp. 321-334.______________(1988), “On the Mechanics of Economic Development”, Journal of Monetary Economics, 22, pp. 3-42._______________(1990), “Why Doesn’t Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries”, American Economic Review, 80(2), pp. 92-96.MALLICK, Lingaraj, Das, Pradeep Kumar ve Pradhan, Kalandi Charan (2016), “Impact of educational expenditure on Economic Growth in Major Asian Countries: Evidence from Econometric Analysis”, Theoretical and Applied Economics, 23(2), pp. 173-186.MANKIW, N.G., Romer, D. ve Weil, D. (1992), “A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth “, Quarterly Journal of Economics , 107, ss. 407 –437.MARIANA, Dragoescu Raluca (2015), “Education As A Determinant of The Economic Growth. The Case of Romania”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 197, pp. 404-412.MERCAN, Mehmet ve Sezer, Sevgi (2014), “The Effect of Education Expenditure on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey”, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, 109, pp. 925-930.MICHAELOWA, Katharina (2000), “Returns to Education in Low Income Countries: Evidence for Africa”, Annual meeting of the Committee on Developing Countries of the German Economic Association, Germany, https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Katharina_Michaelowa/publication/254700109_Returns_to_Education_in_Low_Income_Countries_Evidence_for_Africa/links/553f57e00cf24c6a05d2032f.pdf.NELSON, Richard R. ve Phelps, Edmund, S. (1966), “Investment in Humans, Technological Diffusion, and Economıc Growth”, American Economic Review, 56(1-2), pp. 69-75.OWUSU-NANTWI, Victor (2015), “Education Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from Ghana”, Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 6(16), pp. 69-77.ÖZSOY, Ceyda (2009), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Ve İktisadi Büyüme Arasındaki İlişkinin Var Modeli İle Analizi”, The Journal of Knowledge Economy & Knowledge Management, 4, ss. 71-83.PAMUK, Mürüvvet ve Bektaş, Hakan (2014), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Harcamaları ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: ARDL Sınır Testi Yaklaşımı”, Siyaset, Ekonomi ve Yönetim Araştırmaları Dergisi, 2(2), ss. 77-90.ROMER, P.M. (1986), “Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth”, The Journal of Political Economy, 94(5), pp. 1002-1037. ___________(1990), “Endogenous Technological Change”, The Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), pp. 71-102.SELF, Sharmistha ve Grabowski, Richard (2004), “Does Education at All Levels Cause Growth? India, A Case Study”, Economics of Education Review, pp. 47-55.SCHULTZ, Theodore (1961), “Investment in Human Capital”, American Economic Review, 51, pp. 1 – 17.SOLOW, Robert M. (1956), “A contribution to The Theory of economic Growth”, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 70(1), pp. 65-94.TABAN, Sami ve Kar, Muhsin (2006), “Beşeri Sermaye ve Ekonomik Büyüme Nedensellik Analizi, 1969-2001”, Anadolu Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(1), ss. 159-182.TAYO, Lionel Douanla ve Fouda, Marcel Olivier Abomo (2015), “Government Spending in Education and Economic Growth in Cameroon: A Vector Error Correction Model Approach”, MPRA Paper, No: 62008, pp. 1-13.UÇAN, Okyay ve Yeşilyurt, Hilal (2016), “Türkiye’de Eğitim Harcamaları ve Büyüme İlişkisi”, Niğde Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 9(2), ss. 179-185.YAN, Yingying (2011), “The Impact of Education on Economic Growth in China”, 2011 International Conference on e-Education, Entertainment and e-Management, pp. 202-204.
Toplam 1 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 21 Ekim 2019 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2019Cilt: 9 Sayı: 18 |
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