TÜRKİYE’NİN FARMAKOLOJİ SANAYİNDEKİ MUKAYESELİ ÜSTÜNLÜĞÜNÜN SEKTÖRÜN İHRACATI ÜZERİNE ETKİSİ: ZAMAN SERİSİ ANALİZİ
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin farmakoloji sanayisi ürün ihracatındaki dinamik, açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlük endeksinin farmakolojik ürün ihracatı üzerine etkisini incelemektir. Bu çerçevede kullanılan açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlük endeksi, normalleştirilmiş açıklanmış karşılaştırmalı üstünlük endeksinin (NRCA) zamansal dinamik karşılaştırmasına sahip formu olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Ayrıca, modele girdi maliyetleri etkilerini ölçmek için reel döviz kuru ve üretim kapasitesinin etkisini ölçmek için farmakoloji sanayisinin Türkiye’deki sanayi üretim endeksi ilave edilmiştir. Oluşturulan ihracat modeli yapısal kırılmaları dikkate alan zaman serisi teknikleri ile analiz edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları farmakolojik ürün ihracatını etkileyen faktörlerin döviz kuru ve sanayi üretim endeksi olduğunu göstermektedir. Döviz kurunun ihracat üzerine etkisinin negatif çıkması sektördeki ithal girdi maliyetlerine bağlanmıştır. Kurdaki artışın ihracat üzerine azaltıcı etkisi olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Sanayi üretim endeksi ise ihracatı pozitif olarak etkilemiştir. NRCA endeksi ise anlamsız çıkmıştır. NRCA’nın neden ihracat üzerine etkisinin olmadığı tartışılmıştır. Çalışmada ele alınan dönem aylık seriler olmak üzere 2005:02 -2019:12 dönemidir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
NRCA Yapısal Kırılmalar Farmakoloji Sanayisi İhracat Türkiye
Kaynakça
- AGHLMAND, Siamak, RAHIMI, Bahlol, FARROKH-ESLAMLOU, Hamidreza, NABILOU Bahram & YUSEFZADEH, Hassan (2018), “Determinants of Iran’s Bilateral Intra-industry Trade in Pharmaceutical Industry”, Iranian Journal of Pharmaceutical Research, vol.17, no.2, pp.822-828.
- BALASSA, Bela (1965), “Trade Liberalization and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage”, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, vol.33, no. 2, pp. 99-123.
- BAROUNI, M., GHADERİ, H. & BANOUEI AA. (2012), “Pharmaceutical Industry and Trade Liberalization Using Computable General Equilibrium Model”, Iranian J Publ Health, vol. 41, no.12, pp.66-75.
- CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Josep Lluís, KIM, Dukpa & PERRON, Pierre (2009), “GLS-based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, vol.25, no. 6, pp. 1754-1792.
- CHUANKAMNERDKARN, Prasit (1997), “Patterns and Determinants of Australia's International Trade in Pharmaceuticals”, Victoria University of Technology, Business Admiınistration Doctorate Thesis, Melbourne: Australia.
- DEMİR, Memduh Alper (2019), “Normalleştirilmiş Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler Endeksi Yaklaşımı İle Türkiye’de Sektörler Arası İhracat Rekabetinin Analizi”, ECONDER I. Uluslararası İktisat, İşletme ve Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi Tam Metin Kitabı, ss.321-332.
- DEMİR, Memduh Alper, EKİNCİ, Ramazan & UTKULU, Utku (2019), “Türkiye’de Enerji Fiyatlarının İhracat Arzına Etkisi: İmalat Sanayi İhracatı Zaman Serisi Bulguları”, Turkish Studies: Economics, Finance, Politics, C.14, Sy. 2, ss. 237-258.
- DICKEY, David A & FULLER, Wayne A (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” , Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, vol. 49, no. 4, pp.1057-1072.
- GREGORY, Allan W & HANSEN, Bruce E (1996), “Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts” Journal of Econometrics, vol.70, no.1, pp. 99-126.
- HABERTÜRK GAZETESİ (2014), “Milyar Dolarlık Mücadele” https://www.haberturk.com/ekonomi/is-yasam/haber/955670-milyar-dolarlik-mucadele. Erişim tarihi: 09 Mayıs 2020.
- HATEMİ-J, Abdulnasser (2008), “Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration, Empirical Economics, vol. 35, no.3, pp. 497-505.
- HOEN, Alex R & OOSTERHAVEN, Jan (2006), “On the Measurement of Comparative Advantage”, The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 40, no. 3, pp.677-691.
- KETBOĞA, Metin (2019), “Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret Açığı Sorunun Nedenleri ve Katma Değeri Düşük Ürün İhracatının Dış Ticaret Açığı İçindeki Yeri ve Çözüm Önerileri”, Batman Üniversitesi Yaşam Bilimleri Dergisi, C.9, Sy.2, ss. 209-224.
- LAURSEN, Keld (1998), “Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Alternatives as Measures of International Specialisation” DRUID Working Paper, No. 98-30.
- LEE, Junsoo & STRAZICICH, Mark C (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85, no.4,pp. 1082-1089.
- MAHAJAN, Varun, NAURIYAL, D.K. & SINGH, S.P. (2015) “Trade Performance and Revealed Comparative Advantage of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in New IPR Regime”, International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 9, no.1, pp. 56 - 73.
- MAKI, Daiki (2012), “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, vol.29, no.5, pp. 2011-2015.
- MOTLAGH, Soraya Nouraei, HADİAN, Mohammad, MOUSAVİ, Abdoreza, ALIPOUR, Samira, JAHANGIRI, Reza & ROSTAMI Moharam Ali (2018), “Investigating the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Import and Export of Medicine in Iran from 2001 to 2014”, Shiraz E-Med J, vol. 19, no.10, e66512.
- MOUSAVI, Seyede Zeinab, RASEKHI, Saeed, GOLESTANI, Mina & IMANI, Ali (2018), “ Studying International Competitiveness in Pharmaceutical Sector in Selected Developed Countries”, Asian Journal of Pharmaceutical and Clinical Research”, vol.11, no.3, pp. 451-460.
- NAJAFİ, Benzad, MAHBOUB-AHARI, Alireza, MOTLAGH, Soraya Nouraei, OTOBIDEH, Seyed Alireza, RAHIMI, Bahlol, SHABANINEJAD, Hosein & YUSEFZADEH, Hasan (2019), “The Study of Effective Factors on Iran’s Pharmaceutical Export Supply and Demand”, Iranian Journal of Pharmaceutical Research,vol.18, no.4, pp.2226-2232.
- ÖZBOZKURT, Onur Başar (2019), “2023 Hedeflerine Giden Yolda Türk İlaç Sektörüne İlişkin İhracatta Karşılaşılan Problem Alanları: Mersin İlinde İlaç İhracatı Gerçekleştiren Bir İşletmenin Stratejik Yönetimi” Bülent Kırmızı ve Bahar İşigüzel (Ed.), Türkiye Vizyonu: Multidisipliner Çalışmalar 2019 içinde (ss. 528-545). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
- PHILLIPS, Peter CB & PERRON, Pierre (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, vol.75, no.2, pp. 335-346.
- PROUDMAN, James & REDDING, Stephan (1998),“Openness and Growth”, London, The Bank of England.
- SAMI, Shaista (2014), “Fostering Pharmaceutical Trade in India and China: An Empirical Study”, Transnational Corporations Review, vol.6, no.4, pp. 379-391.
- UTKULU, Utku, SEYMEN, Dilek & ARI, Aydın(2004), “Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence”. In International Conference on Policy Modelling, Paris.
- UYSAL, Özgür (2020), “Reel Döviz Kurları İle Dış Ticaret Arasındaki İlişki: Çin Örneği”, Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C.8, Sy.1, ss. 243-250.
- VOLLRATH, Thomas L (1991), “A Theoretical Evaluation of Alternative Trade Intensity Measures of Revealed Comparative Advantage” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol.127, no.2, pp. 265-280.
- WILKMAN, Mats (2012), “Determinants of Swedish Pharmaceutical Exports”, Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School Master Thesis, Jönköping: Sweden.
- YENİLMEZ, Füsun & KILIÇ, Esin (2014), “Gümrük Birliği Ve Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye İlaç Sektörü İthalatına Etkisi” EconWorld2014@Prague International Conference in Economics.
- YU, Run, CAI, Junning & LEUNG, PingSun (2009), “The Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index” The Annals of Regional Science, vol.43, no.1, pp. 267-282.
- YUSEFZADEH, Hassan, REZAPOUR, Aziz, LOTFI, Farhad, AZAR Farbod Ebadifard, NABILO, Bahram, GORJI, Hassan Abolghasem, HADIAN, Mohammad, SHAHIDISADEGHI, Niusha & KARAMI Atiyeh (2015), “A Study of Comparative Advantage and Intra-Industry Trade in the Pharmaceutical Industry of Iran”, Global Journal of Health Science, vol.7, no.6, pp.295-307.
THE EFFECT OF TURKEY’S COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE IN PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY ON THE EXPORT OF THE SECTOR: TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Öz
The purpose of this study to investigate the Turkey’s dynamic revealed comparative advantage in pharmaceutical industry on its products exports. In this framework revealed comparative advantage index used in this study is defined normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index with temporal dynamic comparison. In addition, real exchange rate was added to the model to measure the effects of input costs, and Turkey’s industrial production index in pharmaceutical industry was added to measure the impact of the production capacity. The export model was analyzed with time series techniques that take into account structural breaks. Analysis results showed that factors affecting pharmaceutical exports are exchange rate and industrial production index. The negative effect of the exchange rate on exports was attributed to the imported input costs in the industry. It was determined that the increase in exchange rate had a decreasing effect on exports. Industrial production index had a positive impact on exports. The NRCA index was insignificant. It has been discussed why NRCA has no effect on exports. The time span covered in the study is 2005:02-2019:12, including monthly series.
Anahtar Kelimeler
NRCA Structural Breaks Pharmaceutical Industry Export Turkey
Kaynakça
- AGHLMAND, Siamak, RAHIMI, Bahlol, FARROKH-ESLAMLOU, Hamidreza, NABILOU Bahram & YUSEFZADEH, Hassan (2018), “Determinants of Iran’s Bilateral Intra-industry Trade in Pharmaceutical Industry”, Iranian Journal of Pharmaceutical Research, vol.17, no.2, pp.822-828.
- BALASSA, Bela (1965), “Trade Liberalization and “Revealed” Comparative Advantage”, Manchester School of Economic and Social Studies, vol.33, no. 2, pp. 99-123.
- BAROUNI, M., GHADERİ, H. & BANOUEI AA. (2012), “Pharmaceutical Industry and Trade Liberalization Using Computable General Equilibrium Model”, Iranian J Publ Health, vol. 41, no.12, pp.66-75.
- CARRION-I-SILVESTRE, Josep Lluís, KIM, Dukpa & PERRON, Pierre (2009), “GLS-based Unit Root Tests with Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both the Null and the Alternative Hypotheses”, Econometric Theory, vol.25, no. 6, pp. 1754-1792.
- CHUANKAMNERDKARN, Prasit (1997), “Patterns and Determinants of Australia's International Trade in Pharmaceuticals”, Victoria University of Technology, Business Admiınistration Doctorate Thesis, Melbourne: Australia.
- DEMİR, Memduh Alper (2019), “Normalleştirilmiş Açıklanmış Karşılaştırmalı Üstünlükler Endeksi Yaklaşımı İle Türkiye’de Sektörler Arası İhracat Rekabetinin Analizi”, ECONDER I. Uluslararası İktisat, İşletme ve Sosyal Bilimler Kongresi Tam Metin Kitabı, ss.321-332.
- DEMİR, Memduh Alper, EKİNCİ, Ramazan & UTKULU, Utku (2019), “Türkiye’de Enerji Fiyatlarının İhracat Arzına Etkisi: İmalat Sanayi İhracatı Zaman Serisi Bulguları”, Turkish Studies: Economics, Finance, Politics, C.14, Sy. 2, ss. 237-258.
- DICKEY, David A & FULLER, Wayne A (1981), “Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” , Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, vol. 49, no. 4, pp.1057-1072.
- GREGORY, Allan W & HANSEN, Bruce E (1996), “Residual-based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts” Journal of Econometrics, vol.70, no.1, pp. 99-126.
- HABERTÜRK GAZETESİ (2014), “Milyar Dolarlık Mücadele” https://www.haberturk.com/ekonomi/is-yasam/haber/955670-milyar-dolarlik-mucadele. Erişim tarihi: 09 Mayıs 2020.
- HATEMİ-J, Abdulnasser (2008), “Tests for Cointegration with Two Unknown Regime Shifts with an Application to Financial Market Integration, Empirical Economics, vol. 35, no.3, pp. 497-505.
- HOEN, Alex R & OOSTERHAVEN, Jan (2006), “On the Measurement of Comparative Advantage”, The Annals of Regional Science, vol. 40, no. 3, pp.677-691.
- KETBOĞA, Metin (2019), “Türkiye’de Dış Ticaret Açığı Sorunun Nedenleri ve Katma Değeri Düşük Ürün İhracatının Dış Ticaret Açığı İçindeki Yeri ve Çözüm Önerileri”, Batman Üniversitesi Yaşam Bilimleri Dergisi, C.9, Sy.2, ss. 209-224.
- LAURSEN, Keld (1998), “Revealed Comparative Advantage and the Alternatives as Measures of International Specialisation” DRUID Working Paper, No. 98-30.
- LEE, Junsoo & STRAZICICH, Mark C (2003), “Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks”, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 85, no.4,pp. 1082-1089.
- MAHAJAN, Varun, NAURIYAL, D.K. & SINGH, S.P. (2015) “Trade Performance and Revealed Comparative Advantage of Indian Pharmaceutical Industry in New IPR Regime”, International Journal of Pharmaceutical and Healthcare Marketing, vol. 9, no.1, pp. 56 - 73.
- MAKI, Daiki (2012), “Tests for Cointegration Allowing for an Unknown Number of Breaks”, Economic Modelling, vol.29, no.5, pp. 2011-2015.
- MOTLAGH, Soraya Nouraei, HADİAN, Mohammad, MOUSAVİ, Abdoreza, ALIPOUR, Samira, JAHANGIRI, Reza & ROSTAMI Moharam Ali (2018), “Investigating the Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on the Import and Export of Medicine in Iran from 2001 to 2014”, Shiraz E-Med J, vol. 19, no.10, e66512.
- MOUSAVI, Seyede Zeinab, RASEKHI, Saeed, GOLESTANI, Mina & IMANI, Ali (2018), “ Studying International Competitiveness in Pharmaceutical Sector in Selected Developed Countries”, Asian Journal of Pharmaceutical and Clinical Research”, vol.11, no.3, pp. 451-460.
- NAJAFİ, Benzad, MAHBOUB-AHARI, Alireza, MOTLAGH, Soraya Nouraei, OTOBIDEH, Seyed Alireza, RAHIMI, Bahlol, SHABANINEJAD, Hosein & YUSEFZADEH, Hasan (2019), “The Study of Effective Factors on Iran’s Pharmaceutical Export Supply and Demand”, Iranian Journal of Pharmaceutical Research,vol.18, no.4, pp.2226-2232.
- ÖZBOZKURT, Onur Başar (2019), “2023 Hedeflerine Giden Yolda Türk İlaç Sektörüne İlişkin İhracatta Karşılaşılan Problem Alanları: Mersin İlinde İlaç İhracatı Gerçekleştiren Bir İşletmenin Stratejik Yönetimi” Bülent Kırmızı ve Bahar İşigüzel (Ed.), Türkiye Vizyonu: Multidisipliner Çalışmalar 2019 içinde (ss. 528-545). Bursa: Ekin Yayınevi.
- PHILLIPS, Peter CB & PERRON, Pierre (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression”, Biometrika, vol.75, no.2, pp. 335-346.
- PROUDMAN, James & REDDING, Stephan (1998),“Openness and Growth”, London, The Bank of England.
- SAMI, Shaista (2014), “Fostering Pharmaceutical Trade in India and China: An Empirical Study”, Transnational Corporations Review, vol.6, no.4, pp. 379-391.
- UTKULU, Utku, SEYMEN, Dilek & ARI, Aydın(2004), “Export Supply and Trade Reform: The Turkish Evidence”. In International Conference on Policy Modelling, Paris.
- UYSAL, Özgür (2020), “Reel Döviz Kurları İle Dış Ticaret Arasındaki İlişki: Çin Örneği”, Anemon Muş Alparslan Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, C.8, Sy.1, ss. 243-250.
- VOLLRATH, Thomas L (1991), “A Theoretical Evaluation of Alternative Trade Intensity Measures of Revealed Comparative Advantage” Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, vol.127, no.2, pp. 265-280.
- WILKMAN, Mats (2012), “Determinants of Swedish Pharmaceutical Exports”, Jönköping University, Jönköping International Business School Master Thesis, Jönköping: Sweden.
- YENİLMEZ, Füsun & KILIÇ, Esin (2014), “Gümrük Birliği Ve Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmalarının Türkiye İlaç Sektörü İthalatına Etkisi” EconWorld2014@Prague International Conference in Economics.
- YU, Run, CAI, Junning & LEUNG, PingSun (2009), “The Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage Index” The Annals of Regional Science, vol.43, no.1, pp. 267-282.
- YUSEFZADEH, Hassan, REZAPOUR, Aziz, LOTFI, Farhad, AZAR Farbod Ebadifard, NABILO, Bahram, GORJI, Hassan Abolghasem, HADIAN, Mohammad, SHAHIDISADEGHI, Niusha & KARAMI Atiyeh (2015), “A Study of Comparative Advantage and Intra-Industry Trade in the Pharmaceutical Industry of Iran”, Global Journal of Health Science, vol.7, no.6, pp.295-307.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Ekonomi |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 23 Ekim 2020 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2020Sayı: 20 |
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