Araştırma Makalesi
Yıl 2024,
Sayı: 28, 226 - 242, 30.10.2024
Öz
Küresel finans krizi sonrası krizin etkilerini azaltmak amacıyla birçok ülkede kredi kısıtlamaları uygulanmış; ancak son dönemde özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde krediye erişimi kolaylaştıran gelişmeler ve politika teşvikleri ile hanehalkı kredilerinde artışlar yaşanmıştır. Bu dönemde hanehalkı kredilerinin ön plana çıkması ile ekonomik etkileri de tartışmaları beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu nedenle çalışma Türkiye’de hanehalkı kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerini ampirik olarak değerlendirmeyi amaçlamıştır. Ampirik analizde uzun ve kısa dönem bulgular doğrusal ve doğrusal olmayan ARDL modellerine dayanmaktadır. 2008Q3-2023Q2 dönem aralığı kullanılan çalışmada, Türkiye'de hanehalkı kredilerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde pozitif bir etkiye sahip olduğu; ancak hanehalkı kredilerinin azaldığı (düşük oynaklık) dönemlerde bu etkinin pozitif ve daha büyük olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bulgular Türkiye’de hanehalkı kredi büyümesinin ekonomik büyüme üzerinde olumlu etkisinin olduğunu; ancak kredi büyümesinin kontrollü olması gerektiğini göstermektedir.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Aghion, P., Angeletos, G. M., Banerjee, A., & Manova, K. (2010). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(3), 246-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.02.005
- Akinsola, F. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). Inflation and economic growth: A review of the international literature. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 20(3), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0019
- Alessi, L., & Detken, C. (2018). Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage. Journal of Financial Stability, 35, 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.06.005
- Alp, E., & Seven, Ü. (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
- Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105-148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
- Bahadır, B., & Gümüş, I. (2016). Credit decomposition and business cycles in emerging market economies. Journal of International Economics, 103, 250-262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.10.003
- Bahadır, B., & Valev, N. (2020). Institutions, household credit composition, and the business cycle. Economic Inquiry, 58(3), 1401-1413. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12885
- Beck, T., Büyükkarabacak, B., Rioja, F. K., & Valev, N. T. (2012). Who gets the credit? And does it matter? Household vs. firm lending across countries. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4661
- Beck, T., Levine, R. & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00072-6
- Benczúr, P., Karagiannis, S., & Kvedaras, V. (2019). Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact. Journal of Macroeconomics, 62, 103048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.001
- Çayır, B. (2021). The impacts of international capital flows on household credits. Central Bank Review, 21(4), 131-140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001.
- Çepni, O., Hacıhasanoğlu, Y. S., & Yılmaz, M. H. (2020). Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach. Central Bank Review, 20(3), 109-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.06.001
- De Gregorio, J. (1996). Borrowing constraints, human capital accumulation, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(1), 49-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(95)01234-6
- Dembiermont, C., Drehmann, M., & Muksakunratana, S. (2013). How much does the private sector really borrow? A new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector. BIS Quarterly Review March. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2248501
- Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı & Maksimovic, V. (1998). Law, finance and firm growth. Journal of Finance, 53, 2107-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139825.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
- Ekinci, M. F., & Omay, T. (2020). Current account and credit growth: The role of household credit and financial depth. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101244
- Ekinci, M. F., Erdem, F. P., & Kilinc, Z. (2015). Credit growth, current account and financial depth. Applied Economics, 47(17), 1809-1821. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.1002897
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
- Galor, O., & Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 35-52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811
- Goaied, M., & Gasmi, A. (2021). The effects of household and firm credit on growth: New evidence from a panel of developed and developing countries. Australian Economic Papers, 60(3), 544-561. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12218
- Hegerty, S. W. (2019). Do capital flows drive credit growth and consumption in Central and Eastern Europe? Post-Communist Economies, 31(1), 36-51. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2018.1461516
- Jappelli, T., & Pagano, M. (1994). Saving, growth, and liquidity constraints. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 83-109. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118429
- Kara, H. (2016). A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach: 2011–2015. Central Bank Review, 16(3), 85-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.08.001
- Karaçimen, E. (2014). Financialization in Turkey: The case of consumer debt. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 16(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2014.910393
- Kılınç, M., & Ulussever, T. (2024). Changing landscape of the finance-growth nexus: Industry growth, credit types, and external financial dependence. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 101961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101961
- Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00022-5
- Levine, R. (2005) Finance and growth: theory and evidence. In P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A (pp. 865–933). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01012-9.
- MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<601::AID-JAE417>3.0.CO;2-T
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643
- Mian, A., Sufi, A., & Verner, E. (2017). Household debt and business cycles worldwide. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1755-1817.
- Mian, A., Sufi, A., & Verner, E. (2020). How does credit supply expansion affect the real economy? the productive capacity and household demand channels. The Journal of Finance, 75(2), 949-994. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12869.
- Müller, K. (2018). Credit markets around the world, 1910-2014. Available at SSRN 3259636. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259636
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
- Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2015). Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Economic Modelling, 51, 436-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.026
- Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2016). Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Modelling, 59, 314-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.08.003
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
- Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.001
- Sassi, S., & Gasmi, A. (2014). The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth: New evidence from European Union countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 226-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.12.001.
- Schumpeter, J.A., (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, Mass.
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, 281-314. . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
- Şen, S., & İsmiç, B. (2023). The effect of household versus enterprise credit on economic growth in Türkiye. Cumhuriyet Universitesi Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences (JEAS), 24(4). https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1331347
- Uğurlu, E. N. (2023). Sectoral implications of policy induced household credit expansions. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 67, 14-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.06.002.
- Verner, E. (2019). Private debt booms and the real economy: do the benefits outweigh the costs?. Available at SSRN 3441608. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3441608
- Vieira, F. V., & da Silva, C. G. (2023). Looking for asymmetries between credit and output in the BRICS countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 88, 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.12.010
- Yılmaz, İ. (2023). Finansal tablo kullanıcıları açısından enflasyon muhasebesinin önemi: BİST enerji sektörü üzerine örnek bir uygulama, KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 930-944.
- Yılancı, V., Bozoklu, S., & Görüş, M. S. (2020). Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a bootstrap ARDL bounds testing approach with a Fourier function. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55, 102035. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102035
Yıl 2024,
Sayı: 28, 226 - 242, 30.10.2024
Öz
Credit restrictions were imposed in many countries in the aftermath of the global financial crisis in order to mitigate the effects of the crisis, but recently, especially in developing countries, there has been an increase in household credit due to developments facilitating access to credit and policy incentives. In this period, household credit has come to the forefront and its economic effects have brought along debates. Therefore, this study aims to empirically evaluate the effects of household credit on economic growth in Turkey. In the empirical analysis, long and short-run findings are based on linear and non-linear ARDL models. Using the period range 2008Q3-2023Q2, the study finds that household credit has a positive effect on economic growth in Turkey, but this effect is positive and larger in periods of decreasing household credit (low volatility). The findings suggest that household credit growth has a positive impact on economic growth in Turkey, but credit growth should be controlled.
Anahtar Kelimeler
Kaynakça
- Aghion, P., Angeletos, G. M., Banerjee, A., & Manova, K. (2010). Volatility and growth: Credit constraints and the composition of investment. Journal of Monetary Economics, 57(3), 246-265. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2010.02.005
- Akinsola, F. A., & Odhiambo, N. M. (2017). Inflation and economic growth: A review of the international literature. Comparative Economic Research. Central and Eastern Europe, 20(3), 41-56. https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2017-0019
- Alessi, L., & Detken, C. (2018). Identifying excessive credit growth and leverage. Journal of Financial Stability, 35, 215-225. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2017.06.005
- Alp, E., & Seven, Ü. (2019). The dynamics of household final consumption: The role of wealth channel. Central Bank Review, 19(1), 21-32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2019.03.002
- Arcand, J. L., Berkes, E., & Panizza, U. (2015). Too much finance? Journal of Economic Growth, 20, 105-148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
- Bahadır, B., & Gümüş, I. (2016). Credit decomposition and business cycles in emerging market economies. Journal of International Economics, 103, 250-262. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2016.10.003
- Bahadır, B., & Valev, N. (2020). Institutions, household credit composition, and the business cycle. Economic Inquiry, 58(3), 1401-1413. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecin.12885
- Beck, T., Büyükkarabacak, B., Rioja, F. K., & Valev, N. T. (2012). Who gets the credit? And does it matter? Household vs. firm lending across countries. The BE Journal of Macroeconomics, 12(1). https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4661
- Beck, T., Levine, R. & Loayza, N. (2000). Finance and the sources of growth. Journal of Financial Economics, 58, 261-300. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-405X(00)00072-6
- Benczúr, P., Karagiannis, S., & Kvedaras, V. (2019). Finance and economic growth: Financing structure and non-linear impact. Journal of Macroeconomics, 62, 103048. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.08.001
- Çayır, B. (2021). The impacts of international capital flows on household credits. Central Bank Review, 21(4), 131-140. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2021.12.001.
- Çepni, O., Hacıhasanoğlu, Y. S., & Yılmaz, M. H. (2020). Credit decomposition and economic activity in Turkey: A wavelet-based approach. Central Bank Review, 20(3), 109-131. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2020.06.001
- De Gregorio, J. (1996). Borrowing constraints, human capital accumulation, and growth. Journal of Monetary Economics, 37(1), 49-71. https://doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932(95)01234-6
- Dembiermont, C., Drehmann, M., & Muksakunratana, S. (2013). How much does the private sector really borrow? A new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector. BIS Quarterly Review March. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2248501
- Demirgüç-Kunt, Aslı & Maksimovic, V. (1998). Law, finance and firm growth. Journal of Finance, 53, 2107-37. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.139825.
- Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74(366a), 427-431. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1979.10482531
- Ekinci, M. F., & Omay, T. (2020). Current account and credit growth: The role of household credit and financial depth. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 54, 101244. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2020.101244
- Ekinci, M. F., Erdem, F. P., & Kilinc, Z. (2015). Credit growth, current account and financial depth. Applied Economics, 47(17), 1809-1821. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2014.1002897
- Enders, W., & Lee, J. (2012). The flexible Fourier form and Dickey–Fuller type unit root tests. Economics Letters, 117(1), 196-199. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2012.04.081
- Galor, O., & Zeira, J. (1993). Income distribution and macroeconomics. The Review of Economic Studies, 60(1), 35-52. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297811
- Goaied, M., & Gasmi, A. (2021). The effects of household and firm credit on growth: New evidence from a panel of developed and developing countries. Australian Economic Papers, 60(3), 544-561. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8454.12218
- Hegerty, S. W. (2019). Do capital flows drive credit growth and consumption in Central and Eastern Europe? Post-Communist Economies, 31(1), 36-51. https://doi.org/10.1080/14631377.2018.1461516
- Jappelli, T., & Pagano, M. (1994). Saving, growth, and liquidity constraints. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 109(1), 83-109. https://doi.org/10.2307/2118429
- Kara, H. (2016). A brief assessment of Turkey's macroprudential policy approach: 2011–2015. Central Bank Review, 16(3), 85-92. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cbrev.2016.08.001
- Karaçimen, E. (2014). Financialization in Turkey: The case of consumer debt. Journal of Balkan and Near Eastern Studies, 16(2), 161-180. https://doi.org/10.1080/19448953.2014.910393
- Kılınç, M., & Ulussever, T. (2024). Changing landscape of the finance-growth nexus: Industry growth, credit types, and external financial dependence. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 101961. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2024.101961
- Kneller, R., Bleaney, M. F., & Gemmell, N. (1999). Fiscal policy and growth: evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Public Economics, 74(2), 171-190. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0047-2727(99)00022-5
- Levine, R. (2005) Finance and growth: theory and evidence. In P. Aghion and S.N. Durlauf (eds.), Handbook of Economic Growth, Vol. 1A (pp. 865–933). Amsterdam: Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01012-9.
- MacKinnon, J. G. (1996). Numerical distribution functions for unit root and cointegration tests. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 11(6), 601-618. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1255(199611)11:6<601::AID-JAE417>3.0.CO;2-T
- McNown, R., Sam, C. Y., & Goh, S. K. (2018). Bootstrapping the autoregressive distributed lag test for cointegration. Applied Economics, 50(13), 1509-1521. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2017.1366643
- Mian, A., Sufi, A., & Verner, E. (2017). Household debt and business cycles worldwide. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 132(4), 1755-1817.
- Mian, A., Sufi, A., & Verner, E. (2020). How does credit supply expansion affect the real economy? the productive capacity and household demand channels. The Journal of Finance, 75(2), 949-994. https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.12869.
- Müller, K. (2018). Credit markets around the world, 1910-2014. Available at SSRN 3259636. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3259636
- Narayan, P. K. (2005). The saving and investment nexus for China: evidence from cointegration tests. Applied Economics, 37(17), 1979-1990. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036840500278103
- Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2015). Asymmetric impact of crude price on oil product pricing in the United States: An application of multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Economic Modelling, 51, 436-443. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2015.08.026
- Pal, D., & Mitra, S. K. (2016). Asymmetric oil product pricing in India: Evidence from a multiple threshold nonlinear ARDL model. Economic Modelling, 59, 314-328. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.08.003
- Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289-326. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.616
- Phillips, P. C., & Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/biomet/75.2.335
- Sam, C. Y., McNown, R., & Goh, S. K. (2019). An augmented autoregressive distributed lag bounds test for cointegration. Economic Modelling, 80, 130-141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2018.11.001
- Sassi, S., & Gasmi, A. (2014). The effect of enterprise and household credit on economic growth: New evidence from European Union countries. Journal of Macroeconomics, 39, 226-231. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.12.001.
- Schumpeter, J.A., (1911). The Theory of Economic Development. Cambridge, Mass.
- Shin, Y., Yu, B., & Greenwood-Nimmo, M. (2014). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. Festschrift in honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric methods and applications, 281-314. . https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9
- Şen, S., & İsmiç, B. (2023). The effect of household versus enterprise credit on economic growth in Türkiye. Cumhuriyet Universitesi Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences (JEAS), 24(4). https://doi.org/10.37880/cumuiibf.1331347
- Uğurlu, E. N. (2023). Sectoral implications of policy induced household credit expansions. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 67, 14-31. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2023.06.002.
- Verner, E. (2019). Private debt booms and the real economy: do the benefits outweigh the costs?. Available at SSRN 3441608. http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3441608
- Vieira, F. V., & da Silva, C. G. (2023). Looking for asymmetries between credit and output in the BRICS countries. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 88, 39-52. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.qref.2022.12.010
- Yılmaz, İ. (2023). Finansal tablo kullanıcıları açısından enflasyon muhasebesinin önemi: BİST enerji sektörü üzerine örnek bir uygulama, KMÜ Sosyal ve Ekonomik Araştırmalar Dergisi, 25(45), 930-944.
- Yılancı, V., Bozoklu, S., & Görüş, M. S. (2020). Are BRICS countries pollution havens? Evidence from a bootstrap ARDL bounds testing approach with a Fourier function. Sustainable Cities and Society, 55, 102035. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2020.102035
Toplam 48 adet kaynakça vardır.
Ayrıntılar
| Birincil Dil | Türkçe |
|---|---|
| Konular | Uygulamalı Makro Ekonometri, Zaman Serileri Analizi, Büyüme, Enflasyon |
| Bölüm | Araştırma Makaleleri |
| Yazarlar | |
| Erken Görünüm Tarihi | 27 Ekim 2024 |
| Yayımlanma Tarihi | 30 Ekim 2024 |
| Gönderilme Tarihi | 11 Mayıs 2024 |
| Kabul Tarihi | 10 Eylül 2024 |
| Yayımlandığı Sayı | Yıl 2024Sayı: 28 |
