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DOLAYLI VE DOLAYSIZ VERGİ GELİRLERİ İLE DÖVİZ KURU OYNAKLIĞI ARASINDA BİR İLİŞKİ VAR MI? TÜRKİYE ÖRNEĞİ

Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 22, 663 - 682, 21.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.930088

Öz

oynaklığı arasında bir ilişki mevcut mudur? sorusuna ampirik kanıtlar aramaktır. Türkiye örneği için 2006:Q1-2019:Q4 döneminin dikkate alındığı ve reel efektif döviz kurunun standart sapmasının döviz kuru oynaklığı olarak kullanıldığı çalışmada, reel efektif döviz kuru oynaklığı ile hem dolaylı hemde dolaysız vergi gelirleri arasındaki nedensel ilişkiler Toda-Yamamoto yaklaşımı ile araştırılmıştır. Toda-Yamamoto nedensellik testinden elde edilen sonuçlar, hem dolaylı hem de dolaysız vergi gelirlerinden döviz kuru oynaklığına doğru tek yönlü bir nedensellik ilişkisinin varlığını ortaya koymuştur. Tüm bu bulgular ışığında çalışma nedensellik yaklaşımı çerçevesinde, döviz kuru oynaklığı ile dolaylı ve dolaysız vergi gelirleri arasındaki ilişkiye dair önemli ampirik çıkarımlar ortaya koymaktadır.

Kaynakça

  • AYHAN, Fatih (2019), “The Analysis for the Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Trade for Turkish Economy” Business and Economics Research Journal, 19, 629-647
  • BOLLERSLEV, Tim (1990), “Modelling The Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498–505
  • ÇALCALI, Önder and Ali, A. (2019), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tax Revenues: An Application on The OECD Countries” Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 112, 175-198.
  • DEMİ̇RGİ̇L, Hakan and Süha, Ç. (2019), “The Relationship between Exchange Rates Volatility and Household Expenditures in Turkey” Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 832-845.
  • DICKEY, David, A. and Wayne, A. F. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • GAALYA, Micah, S. (2015), “Trade Liberalization and Tax Revenue Performance in Uganda” Modern Economy, 6, 228-244.
  • GHURA, Dhaneshwar (1998), “Tax Revenue in Sub Saharan Africa: Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption” IMF Working Paper No. 98/135 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
  • GUPTA, Abhijit, S. (2007), “Determinants Of Tax Revenue Efforts İn Developing Countries” IMF Working Paper No. WP/07/184.
  • GÜLEÇ, Tan, C. (2020), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Comparative Interest Rates: The Determinants of Capital Flows and Resident Dollarization in Turkey” Celal Bayar University Journal of Social Sciences, 9, 251-259.
  • ISAAC Kwesi. O., Camara K. O. and Mark, K. A. (2018), “Exchange Rate Volatility And Tax Revenue: Evidence From Ghana” Cogent Economics & Finance, 6.
  • KARTAL, Gökhan (2019), “An Application on the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility Occurring Recently in Turkey on the Foreign Trade: Cointegration and Causality Analysis” Fiscaoeconomia, 13, 246-258.
  • KENEN, Peter and Dani, R. (1986), “Measuring and Analyzing The Effects of Short-Term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 311-315.
  • KOÇAK, Sinem (2019), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Tax Revenues: the Case of Turkey” II. International Social Sciences Congress, November 7-9, 2019 Gümüşhane University. http://usbk.gumushane.edu.tr/tr/kongre-yayin-bilgileri/ii-usbk-bildiri-kitabi/.
  • KWİATKOWSKİ, Denis, Peter, C. B. P., Peter, S. and Yongcheol, S. (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • MARTİNEZ-VAZQUEZ, Jorge and Robert, M. (2000), “Tax Reform in the Tax Reform Experiment in Transitional Countries” International Centre for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter, C.B. and Pierre, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • TANZI, Vito (1992), “Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence in Open Economies: Structural Adjustment and Agriculture” ed. by Ian Goldin and L. Alan Winters (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 267–281.
  • TODA, Hiro, Y. and Taku, Y. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics , 66, 225-250.

IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIRECT AND INDIRECT TAX REVENUES WITH EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY

Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 22, 663 - 682, 21.10.2021
https://doi.org/10.29029/busbed.930088

Öz

This study seeks empirical proof for this basic question: is there a relationship between direct-indirect tax revenues with exchange rate volatility? For the period of 2006:Q1-2019:Q4 in Turkey, the Toda-Yamamoto causality approach was performed to delve into the causal relationships between the exchange rate volatility determined by the moving standard deviation of the real effective exchange rate and both direct and indirect taxes. The results of the Toda-Yamamoto causality test revealed the presence of a one-way causality relationship from direct taxes to exchange rate volatility and also a one-way causality relationship from indirect taxes to exchange rate volatility. Under a causality approach framework, the paper occurred a significant empirical inference for the relationship of exchange rate volatility with both direct and indirect taxes.

Kaynakça

  • AYHAN, Fatih (2019), “The Analysis for the Impacts of Exchange Rate Volatility on Foreign Trade for Turkish Economy” Business and Economics Research Journal, 19, 629-647
  • BOLLERSLEV, Tim (1990), “Modelling The Coherence in Short-Run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 72, 498–505
  • ÇALCALI, Önder and Ali, A. (2019), “Macroeconomic Determinants of Tax Revenues: An Application on The OECD Countries” Maliye ve Finans Yazıları, 112, 175-198.
  • DEMİ̇RGİ̇L, Hakan and Süha, Ç. (2019), “The Relationship between Exchange Rates Volatility and Household Expenditures in Turkey” Mehmet Akif Ersoy Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 6, 832-845.
  • DICKEY, David, A. and Wayne, A. F. (1979), “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, 427-431.
  • GAALYA, Micah, S. (2015), “Trade Liberalization and Tax Revenue Performance in Uganda” Modern Economy, 6, 228-244.
  • GHURA, Dhaneshwar (1998), “Tax Revenue in Sub Saharan Africa: Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption” IMF Working Paper No. 98/135 (Washington: International Monetary Fund).
  • GUPTA, Abhijit, S. (2007), “Determinants Of Tax Revenue Efforts İn Developing Countries” IMF Working Paper No. WP/07/184.
  • GÜLEÇ, Tan, C. (2020), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Comparative Interest Rates: The Determinants of Capital Flows and Resident Dollarization in Turkey” Celal Bayar University Journal of Social Sciences, 9, 251-259.
  • ISAAC Kwesi. O., Camara K. O. and Mark, K. A. (2018), “Exchange Rate Volatility And Tax Revenue: Evidence From Ghana” Cogent Economics & Finance, 6.
  • KARTAL, Gökhan (2019), “An Application on the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility Occurring Recently in Turkey on the Foreign Trade: Cointegration and Causality Analysis” Fiscaoeconomia, 13, 246-258.
  • KENEN, Peter and Dani, R. (1986), “Measuring and Analyzing The Effects of Short-Term Volatility in Real Exchange Rates” The Review of Economics and Statistics, 68, 311-315.
  • KOÇAK, Sinem (2019), “Exchange Rate Volatility and Tax Revenues: the Case of Turkey” II. International Social Sciences Congress, November 7-9, 2019 Gümüşhane University. http://usbk.gumushane.edu.tr/tr/kongre-yayin-bilgileri/ii-usbk-bildiri-kitabi/.
  • KWİATKOWSKİ, Denis, Peter, C. B. P., Peter, S. and Yongcheol, S. (1992), “Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity against the Alternative of a Unit Root” Journal of Econometrics, 54, 159-178.
  • MARTİNEZ-VAZQUEZ, Jorge and Robert, M. (2000), “Tax Reform in the Tax Reform Experiment in Transitional Countries” International Centre for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, Atlanta.
  • PHILLIPS, Peter, C.B. and Pierre, P. (1988), “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrika, 75, 335-346.
  • TANZI, Vito (1992), “Structural Factors and Tax Revenue in Developing Countries: A Decade of Evidence in Open Economies: Structural Adjustment and Agriculture” ed. by Ian Goldin and L. Alan Winters (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press), 267–281.
  • TODA, Hiro, Y. and Taku, Y. (1995), “Statistical Inference in Vector Autoregressions with Possibly Integrated Processes” Journal of Econometrics , 66, 225-250.

Ayrıntılar

Birincil Dil İngilizce
Konular İktisat
Bölüm Makaleler
Yazarlar

Sinem KOÇAK (Sorumlu Yazar)
0000-0002-2313-0161
Türkiye

Yayımlanma Tarihi 21 Ekim 2021
Yayınlandığı Sayı Yıl 2021, Cilt , Sayı 22

Kaynak Göster

APA Koçak, S. (2021). IS THERE A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DIRECT AND INDIRECT TAX REVENUES WITH EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY: EVIDENCE FROM TURKEY . Bingöl Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü Dergisi , (22) , 663-682 . DOI: 10.29029/busbed.930088